bean5302

I'd honestly expect owners to move ahead with replacement players relatively quickly once the regular season games start needing to be canceled due to a CBA not being finalized. Remember, MLB recently culled a number of MiLB teams leaving a whole lot of baseball player talent with no where to go and MiLB players would happily cross the picket lines for a shot at the big show. Even 40 man roster players would be seriously tempted since the MLBPA has done absolutely nothing for MiLB players while the owners have recently sowed dissent with the MiLB players and the MLBPA by improving working conditions recently. The MLBPA would be powerless except for to once again, file an unfair labor practice charge; however, the reason the last one was successful was because of several key moves amounting to collusion to alter the actual market for players. Also, it helped that one of the most liberal judges in the US was hearing the case. There's no guarantee the MLBPA would be effective this time around... and if they were to lose, the MLBPA would crumble apart entirely. The union would be broken and a new union would need to be formed.

MiLB are often not owned by the same people as the MLB franchise. MiLB owners spend millions to secure a affiliate contract with MLB and work out a final contract with an MLB franchise. St. Paul Saints tickets are already harder to get, and often more expensive in the secondary market, than Twins tickets for any given game. Punishing the MiLB players who want to play in front of a crowd and the MiLB franchise owners who are often turning very small profits because you're mad at the owners of MLB isn't rational.

I've long held the opinion teams can trade any player and it won't matter a bit to the fans when it comes to putting butts in the seats or revenue to the team based on what's happened after the Twins saw the departure of some of the recently most popular players. 1996 - Kirby Puckett was gone, attendance was up. 2008 - Torii Hunter & Johan Santana were gone, attendance was up. 2019 - Joe Mauer was gone, attedance was up. There are some instances of course where attendance was down (Hrbek, Cuddyer, Morneau), but it's not like it fell off a cliff or something. Bottom line? In my opinion, fans are fans of the team, not the individual players so fans will almost always find a new favorite player. Arraez or Polanco. One of them really should be traded. Based on just how good Polanco has been over the past 3 years combined, he has to be considered a bonefide All Star caliber player and he's still inexpensive with multiple years of team control. Arraez still has some question marks due to his knees and conditioning. Doctors told Arraez to lose weight and do squats to strengthen his legs and improve his knee health. He didn't, he missed a bunch of games and slumped down the stretch. I love the type of game Arraez brings to baseball. He makes a lot of solid, line drive contact which makes the game more exciting to watch, but there are question marks and he's redudant on the roster if the Twins keep Polanco.

Baseball markets sort of work on general metro areas. The immediate city and surrounding 30 minute area has the Twins with a 25%+ population advantage over Cleveland. Having that immediate area advantage is important for attendance and contributes to game day revenues. There's also the median household income. MSP = $84k. Greater Cleveland = $57k. https://community.fangraphs.com/the-importance-of-the-30-minute-population-radius-on-mlb-attendance/ Cincinatti is further from Cleveland than Duluth is from Minneapolis, and if you expand the metros out within reason, Minneapolis/St. Paul generally owns a significant advantage in population density. It's tough for me to consider the markets super comparable. Though if you expand things out far enough, Ohio is a much bigger state than Minnesota overall. Even so, in the northwest of the state, Toledo, OH is Detroit Tigers area and Pittsburgh starts to get as close to Cleveland as suburbs east and south of Canton. So there are 4 baseball teams Ohio residents might consider their "home" team. Cleveland Guardians, Detroit Tigers, Cincinatti Reds, Pittsburgh Pirates.

I think the dump in payroll reflects the Guardians entering a tank/rebuild cycle which is employed by all small market teams and most mid market teams in some capacity. The White Sox and Tigers are going to own the division for probably 2-3 years at least with the Royals next, the Guardians and Twins at the bottom if I had to wager right now. A change in ownership in Cleveland would likely accelerate their rebuild and make them a better team on average, but Cleveland is still small market so I don't see a fundamental change coming. Besides, small market Cleveland and Kansas City have already had opening day payrolls higher than the mid-market Twins have ever seen. Maybe the competent ownership change that's necessary is in Minnesota, not Ohio.

I think I misunderstood the intention of your original response. I read it as don't trade Sano even at the deadline when it seems you meant, don't trade him before he has an opportunity to build some value during the regular season because you're convinced his value is currently nil so the Twins lose nothing by holding/waiting. I'd agree with the expectation his value is low; however, I don't know for sure that's the case. If the CBA includes a full time DH in the NL, Sano could have more significant value than expected after his hot finish to the season. I'd rather the Twins trade him now if they can get something for him rather than risk him having another horrible start to the year. Sano was rocking a .196/.279/.426 triple slash for a .705 OPS at the All Star Break last year. That's good for about an OPS+ or wRC+ of 85-ish. Now that is truly no value.

You mean like if Miguel Sano was worth extending then he would also have trade value...

So you think he'll have no trade value, but he'll totally be worth extending? Aside from that, I'm not sure where you get durable and athletic? Sano barely qualified for the batting title last year for the very first time in his entire career, but still missed nearly 30 games during the season. It was the first time in his career he's played more than 116 games. In regard to athleticism, that left him some years ago. He's now a well below average speed runner and his quickness and range departed several years ago. Even his glove has turned to stone as he put together an unimaginably poor defensive effort in 2021.

Sano's last year with the Twins is this one. He'll be traded before the start of the season, at the deadline if he has value or he'll be allowed to become a free agent at the end of the year. During his time on the active roster, he'll serve as a DH.

I mean... I could use the 4 games and 17.1 innings in AAA where Winder was apparently dealing with a shoulder impingement the Twins also called dead arm, but you just accused me of cherry picking based on 10 games and 54.2 innings. Also, Winder earned his promotion to AAA after only 10 starts and 54.2 innings because the Twins saw whatever it was they wanted to see and were confident he was ready for the next level fast. The shoulder is of some concern. The performance was dominant. The other pitchers in the list provided were never dominant at the high minors level.

Career numbers in AA 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.7 H/9, 10.8 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 2.90 K:BB (Alex Meyer) 4.69 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 8.6 H/9, 9.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 2.14 K:BB (Trevor May) 4.22 ERA, 1.59 WHIP, 10.4 H/9, 7.9 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, 2.03 K:BB (Tyler Jay) 3.87 ERA, 1.51 WHIP, 9.4 H/9, 6.5 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.55 K:BB (Kohl Stewart) 2.35 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.0 H/9, 10.4 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 2.96 K:BB (Stephen Gonsavles) 3.53 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB (Fernando Romero) 3.75 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 9.7 H/9, 5.6 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 2.67 K:BB (Felix Jorge) 3.71 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, 6.3 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 2.21 K:BB (Aaron Slegers) 3.30 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.1 H/9, 7.3 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 2.80 K:BB (Adalberto Mejia) 3.71 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 10.9 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 4.31 K:BB (Lewis Thorpe) 1.98 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 6.8 H/9, 10.7 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 6.50 K:BB (Josh Winder) Perhaps that illustrates just a little bit better as to why Josh Winder might be worth keeping. The closest competitor to Winder is Stephen Gonsalves, who was throwing 90mph in his first stint in MLB and had a single borderline plus pitch and 2 other average MLB offerings. Winder has 4 MLB pitches and 2 plus pitches with a 3rd borderline plus pitch. The two are not remotely comparable. When you have a pitcher who is absolutely dominant at AA, that's uncommon. When you have a guy who is dominant in the high minors and they have the stuff to back up the performance, that's something rare and important to keep an eye on.

I'd be willing to bet the new CBA is going to include a salary floor at least $100MM. It was proposed by the owners because the big teams are sick and tired of being unable to wean some teams off revenue sharing and because it will support the move of teams like Oakland and Tampa to better markets/stadiums.

I think that's a pretty big leap. There's no reason to leak anything since teams can still discuss trades all they like so the Twins can just pick up a phone and call whomever they'd like. Also, with the lockout ongoing, season ticket sales aren't going to be busy no matter what so appeasing the fans at this point probably doesn't do much.

I think the ceiling on Winder is higher than mid rotation. I think the midpoint is #3 and I think the floor is #4-5 at this point, barring injuries. I'm more optimistic about Winder than any of our other pitching prospects. Winder has a 4 pitch mix. Personally, I believe a 4+ pitch mix is virtually required for upper rotation arms. Beyond the 4 pitches, though, he has multiple plus offerings (fastball and slider) with a borderline plus changeup and a decent curveball. When you see a 4 pitch mix with a couple plus offerings and another good offering, that's a recipe for success. Winder was absolutely dominant at AA last year. He didn't give up hits or allow walks. He also struck out 10.7 per 9 innings while also efficiently eating innings with less than 15 pitches per inning. At 100 pitches, Winder would average 7 innings per start. Even though Winder stumbled a bit in AAA, his swinging strike rate, walk rate and efficiency were all solid. The only warning flag for me was the shutdown over the shoulder. Winder talked about his shutdown being purely precautionary, but it does feel like there may have been a bit more to it.

While scouts could be wrong, they're pretty universal on Austin Martin not being suited for center field (range) or shortstop (range/arm). Most scouts expect Austin to wind up at 2B, but that does assume he develops. Interestingly, Falvey has talked about potentially using Martin at shortstop next year so perhaps the Twins have seen more than the general perception of scouts around the league or the Twins simply don't value defense at shortstop much. Since teams can talk about trades during the lockout, but they cannot negotiate with players on MLB contracts, it might be exciting to see what happens at the lockout's end. Trades might come in fast and furious like the deadline. I don't have an opinion on whether or not the Twins should trade Martin. It all depends what they get for him.

You bring your own facts and data. If you can find something, stomp my facts and data into the ground, don't ask me to keep searching for something that proves you're right and I'm wrong. The paper may go back to a time which seems disconnected to what we consider modern techniques, but the research paper was published in 2018. I am not a surgical researcher and I'm not qualified to evaluate the validity of the sample data used. I found articles talking about modern techniques in ACL repair proving to be unreliable or problematic over time and other advancements proving to be non-valuable. I found nothing in my search to indicate ACL repair was almost certainly going to be successful with modern techniques. https://www.healio.com/news/orthopedics/20170712/patients-who-never-make-it-back-after-acl-injury-present-opportunities-challenges According to Robert A. Arciero, MD, professor of orthopedics at the UConn Health Center, studies have shown there is a return-to-play rate of about 63% to 65% for professional football players after ACL injury and related treatment. This is lower than public perception, he noted. The percent of return to play after ACL injury “in high school-aged kids, [is] somewhere in the mid- to high-80s,” Arciero said. “In major league soccer, it is somewhere between 70% and 85%.”

Where's your data? Did you accidentally wipe it away before you flushed this morning?

https://bjsm.bmj.com/content/52/2/128 Meta Analysis showing elite sports players return to sport rates, though the meta analysis included college level players who may have been seniors, etc who may have just elected to graduate and be done or something. Football 78% Basketball 82% Soccer 85% "Among elite baseball players, ACL reconstruction to the rear batting leg was associated with decreased batting average on return to sport" I don't think it's as guaranteed as you make it out to be. Lewis relies upon explosive acceleration, lateral movement and sprint speed to generate a lot of his value at shortstop. A lost step or two would make a big impact on Royce Lewis' potential value, though I do think he'll still be athletic enough. Just have to wait and see.

No, NO! N. O. NOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!! - Calculon

Where did you get the impression the Twins were considering Polanco as the shortstop? Falvey specifically mentioned even considering Austin Martin for the job, but is open to a veteran signing in the exact same way they were last year. https://www.startribune.com/royce-lewis-isnt-ready-so-jorge-polanco-should-return-to-twins-shortstop/600103985/ I mean, it's certainly not impossible, but I haven't seen anything from Falvey or Levine indicating they were planning on Polanco being the shortstop.

He totally could. He could blow Akil Baddoo out of the water, in fact, but the Twins don't have a good reason to rush him to the MLB level because he doesn't need to be on the 26 man or returned to another team. Lewis hasn't played competitive baseball in two years and is coming off a major surgery which can end careers. I'd rather give Lewis Spring Training and a couple months between AA/AAA before calling him up. Like I said, if Lewis gets 400 PA with the Twins, it would signal Lewis simply forced his way onto the roster by playing simply outstanding. That's a great thing.

Well, the Twins had 1 pitcher eclipse 1.9 fWAR in 2021, and they're no longer on the team. Steamer shows Ober and Ryan as serviceable back end rotation arms, which, to be honest, is pretty darn good considering they're both making league minimum. Zips seems as bullish on the pitchers performance level, but less on the innings. A good team would normally be expected to get 20+ WAR from their position players and 20+ WAR from their pitching staff. The Twins weren't too far off in the hitting category, but their pitching was miserable. An embarrassing 8.2 fWAR from the entire staff... and 2.4 of those came from Berrios. The #3 and #2 pitchers were Taylor Rogers had 1.6 fWAR, Kenta Maeda 1.7 fWAR. When your closer, who plays half a season is virtually tied with the best starter still on your team (who is also missing at least 1/2 of next season), that's not a great endorsement for expectations, lol. That said, we'll just have to see what happens. Also, Royce Lewis will not be playing at the MLB level prior to a cup of coffee in 2022 barring some sort of miraculous performance in the minors so any MLB playing time for Lewis should be viewed as a major success, and if he gets 400 plate appearances, that would mean he would have needed to look incredible in spring training and the first month or two of the season.

Mauer forced Little to drink half and half despite being lactose intolerant, convinced Little would get better if he put on weight.

Larnach getting a call before midseason seems unreasonable based on how badly he struggled against almost anything other than a 4 seam fastball last year at the MLB level and how he failed to turn it around after a demotion to AAA. Rooker is much quicker than he gets credit for, but he gets bad jumps on balls. He's probably a servicable corner outfielder, but he needs to prove it was crazy bad luck that kept his production low rather than the shift, etc. Wallner has 40 grade speed with a projection of 35 speed on fangraphs (ouch). He's a DH unless he can improve the athleticism. Garlick could maybe handle a corner spot if given the opportunity. He just doesn't have a lot of track record and he's not a good option for a 4th outfielder because he can't cover center. Kirilloff would be worth a lot more in the corners than 1B. Fangraphs has Kirilloff as a 30 grade speed, though I'm not sure how they came to that conclusion and MLB has him as a 50 grade. Kirilloff managed a 27.4 ft/sec sprint speed (60th percentile in MLB) which is more than enough for the corners. Kepler is a solid corner outfielder. He's dropped some speed in the past couple years so he's probably no longer a valid option in center field like he was in 2019. He's a known quanitity worth starting as an everyday player. Martin is seen as a second baseman by most scouts. He doesn't appear to have the range for center field or the arm for SS or 3rd base. Celestino is a center fielder, not a corner outfielder. It would be a waste to stick him in the corners where his limited bat would do far less for value creation. Considering Buxton is going to be hurt for 80-100 games next year, Celestino is best used as a replacement there. Cave profiles as a AAAA player. Fisher has generated a grand total of -0.1 fWAR in his career. He's MiLB depth as far as I'm concerned. The rest of the farm options are not ready, emergency backups or MiLB depth, IMHO. I think it would be fair to say the Twins have a lot of players who technically play corner outfielder at some level or another. They have precious few proven MLB caliber corner outfielders.

I think career ERA, Wins and Cy Youngs were the stats/awards which most influenced Hall of Fame elections in the 1990s. Strikeouts were neat, but kind of an a boost rather than a main point, I think. You could look at Nolan Ryan as an example. He reigns supreme with 5,714 career strikeouts, but it was the 324 wins that got him to Cooperstown. The 8x he received Cy Young votes helped as well. At least in my opinion.