bean5302
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Everything posted by bean5302
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Farm systems are expected to graduate guys. That's why farms exist. The farm was "okay" before Balazovic dropped off a cliff and Martin took another step back. Once the Twins got to the trade deadline they had exactly zero elite prospects to bargain with, other than perhaps Brooks Lee, who went 8th overall (which would normally be out of the top 100) and had yet to play a single game in the minors. The Twins traded away what looked like some of their strongest assets (because they had to) at the deadline. The Twins had some guys take big steps forward since, but there's still a chasm between the elites and the C level prospects in the system.
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I don't know how much surplus value Urshela has. First, the Twins have to give him a contract ($10MMish in arbitration 3 after making $6.5MM this year) with him becoming a free agent at the end of next year. Is he worth $10MM? Ehhhhhhh... maybe. So with that contract does he have any trade value? Probably not. I think the Twins will non-tender him.
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I think the front office was using pull tabs (cardboard crack). They were chasing the big payouts on what they thought was a a hot box. They blew all the cash they had (existing team), then maxed out their ATM (record payroll), then borrowed from their friends (wiped out the farm) and only hit playbacks.
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Prospect Retrospective: Matt Wallner
bean5302 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Wallner appears to be MUCH faster than scouted. We're talking 65+ speed in the super small sample size. Sprint speed 28.6 ft/sec, making him the 3rd fastest runner on the Twins. Wallner's sprint speed is higher than Royce Lewis' 28.4 ft/sec. 29.1 ft/sec Byron Buxton 29.0 ft/sec Billy Hamilton 28.6 ft/sec Matt Wallner... wtf???? 28.4 ft/sec Royce Lewis 28.2 ft/sec Jorge Polanco 28.2 ft/sec Jake Cave 27.9 ft/sec Max Kepler 27.9 ft/sec Gilberto Celestino 27.9 ft/sec Mark Contreras 27.9 ft/sec Jermaine Palacios 27.8 ft/sec Nick Gordon 27.6 ft/sec Alex Kirilloff 27.0 ft/sec Carlos Correa 27.0 ft/sec Trevor Larnach 26.9 ft/sec Luis Arraez 26.7 ft/sec Miguel Sano 26.6 ft/sec Kyle Garlick 26.3 ft/sec Jose Miranda 25.9 ft/sec Ryan Jeffers 25.8 ft/sec Gio Urshela 25.1 ft/sec Gary Sanchez 23.6 ft/sec Sandy Leon (ranked 561 of 567 players with 10 opportunities) -
Falvey should be fired. It's time. Articles like this desperate to find a way the front office should never take responsibility for the on field product confuse me. The Twins went out and took risks. Yes, they did. Bad risks. The Twins were empty on mid/front rotation arms coming into this season coming off a miserable failure of a year where the team finished dead last in the weakest division in baseball. What the Twins did have was a collection of back end starters after trading the best starter the Twins had developed in over a decade where almost all of the rotation potentials had lengthy and troubling injury histories. Dobnak, Ober, Smeltzer... None of them were reliable. The potential reinforcements in the minors, were iffy as well with the best option, Josh Winder, being shut down with a shoulder injury for most of the second half of 2021. Ryan was unproven, but looked like he could carry a back end spot. That left the Twins in a position where they needed to fill several spots in the rotation. Gray, Paddack, Archer, Bundy. All injury prone. Paddack came with a straight up 10/10 immediate start of the season blowout warning factor. A known partially torn UCL. There were other pitchers, more reliable pitchers to stabilize the risks, but the Twins passed. The Twins front office gambled, and gambled and gambled... The Twins front office implemented a TTO strategy with their pitchers. Yanking them consistently after 4-5 innings pitched. Nullifying any potential value even a great starter could hope to achieve. Maybe it was in a bid to keep the players on the field, but that failed. Maybe it was just because they believed pitchers would perform better... but in a vacuum without consideration for how the bullpen would pick up the extra 1-2 innings per game they'd need to pitch. Another failure. The Twins trainers, coaches and medical staff witnessed seemingly every single player on the team getting hurt. There's something more there than just luck. It's bad timing when the front office already had other gambles fail in the year. The front office recognized their self-created bullpen problem and their failed gambles in the rotation at the trade deadline, but the choices they made were to gamble again on a starter Mahle who had recently been on the IL with shoulder issues and the best options the Twins could find in the bullpen. All it cost was just about everything the farm system had left after the collapse of Martin and Balazovic. The Twins end 2022 coming off a year in which they finished dead last in the division and will probably finish under .500 again despite extending the payroll to massive new records. Even the farm system has been gutted. The pitching "pipeline" has been a failure. The drafts have been pretty poor, and the prospects who looked good quickly got traded because of the failure at the MLB level. Perhaps the article writer should blame the front office for the risks they took rather than the fans for wanting a good team?
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Could Another Starter Debut for Minnesota this Year?
bean5302 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I don't even understand the Twins' philosophy at this point after they let Ryan go multiple 7+ inning starts in a row.- 19 replies
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- jose berrios
- joe ryan
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Could Another Starter Debut for Minnesota this Year?
bean5302 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I suppose the Twins could trade him to try and get somebody else a tier up? Whomever it is, the Twins would need to have the new guy pitch more than 4-5 innings per start to do any better than Gray this year anyway. So, theoretically, I suppose? I'm with you, though. I certainly don't see it happening unless Gray makes it clear he doesn't want to be here (possible.)- 19 replies
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- jose berrios
- joe ryan
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I fail to see the logic in not going to the games for the rest of the year. This is your chance! Get Dugout Box seats! Get Club Level seats! Find your favorite spots in the stadium, sample the foods, see all the parts you may have missed. Who cares if you're not watching B list pitcher or last gasp batter C get walloped and whiffed while you're up sampling some of the great food options and making discoveries? Check out Truly on Deck. The great A/C at Town Ball Tavern (coolest spot other than maybe Club Level on hot days) The juicy lucy or red cow sliders. Take a minute to have surprisingly good curry. The games are fun to attend, the tickets are cheap, and you don't have to stay glued to the seat to "get your money's worth" If you're worried about that evil scoundrel Jim Pohlad misinterpreting missing the playoffs as a great business decision if you buy a ticket through the box office, buy the tickets off Stub Hub so Jim doesn't get your ticket money. That'll really teach him! Check out the cornhole games, giant connect 4 and putt putt golf near gate 34. Mark Cuban talked about the truth of sports events. People do NOT go to watch the players or the game. They go for the experience. If you attend a baseball game and you had no fun because the Twins didn't win or you didn't see "x" player, you're going to be in the minority.
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The 5 Most Uplifting Developments on the Farm This Year
bean5302 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I'm fine with Palacios or Gordon for a few weeks. Lewis is on pace for a 10-12 month recovery. Could put him back on a baseball field in mid April.- 32 replies
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- louis varland
- matt wallner
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Prospect Retrospective: Ronny Henriquez
bean5302 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
What constitutes deserving a chance in your mind? I'm genuinely curious as Henriquez was not successful at AAA for instance. -
Could Another Starter Debut for Minnesota this Year?
bean5302 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Could move Buxton, Mahle or Polanco to the 60 day IL. They're done anyway. Chris Archer, Billy Hamilton, Jake Cave, Sandy Leon, Aaron Sanchez, Derek Rodriguez, Emilio Pagan. Plenty of spots can be opened up easy.- 19 replies
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- jose berrios
- joe ryan
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3 Rookie Records Set to Fall
bean5302 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Lineup management has certainly been questionable. Injuries have been frequent as well. The Twins are going to finish the season with 3 guys who qualify...- 11 replies
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- joe ryan
- jhoan duran
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Twins 2022 Minor League Transactions
bean5302 replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I feel bad for Strotman. He was always on the cusp of making it, but he was never able to take that final step. He was claimed by the Rangers so he may get another shot. -
The 5 Most Uplifting Developments on the Farm This Year
bean5302 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I think Jhoan Duran, Jose Miranda and Royce Lewis are the brightest spots for the farm system in general. Those guys have seriously made an impact, even if Lewis didn't have enough time for things to stabilize, he was incredibly exciting when nobody expected him to contribute so quickly. In the minors specifically, I agree about Wallner. He's made a really fantastic change to his game by learning to be more patient and taking walks. It elevates his game dramatically and showcases the fact his ability to read pitches is far greater than I expected. He's a legitimate top prospect for the Twins at this point. Woods-Richardson... well, I don't know. The reports on his velocity and mechanics being all over the place are flat out bad. Maybe he throws 89 or maybe he throws 92. It seems like he's got some great stuff, but only when his mechanics are in order and he's repeating his delivery like he should. I'd like to see him against MLB batters. It's been great to watch Brooks Lee hit well in the minors, just like advertised, and unlike some other prospects who just didn't seem to be able to make the transition in tact. Emmanuel Rodriguez has really turned some heads and rocketed up the prospect chart as a result, but Julien has also had a really great year. That's been a bright spot as well.- 32 replies
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- louis varland
- matt wallner
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The 5 Most Uplifting Developments on the Farm This Year
bean5302 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Yeah, that loser Joe Mauer. He only has more MVPs than every single player on the 1987 and 1991 teams combined! Oh wait, I almost forgot about Don Baylor who had 58 plate appearances in 1987. He has an MVP too. If only Mauer had learned how to pitch and catch at the same time, but he was too lazy. Lazy Mauer.- 32 replies
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- louis varland
- matt wallner
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The Twins waived all online ticket fees earlier this year, but I'm not sure if that's still in effect. I get promo offers via email pretty frequently (I think I recently shut them off because it was too frequently). There were some $5 ticket deals in the Twins promo emails. I'd suggest signing up for them if you were looking for a great deal.
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Prospect Retrospective: Ronny Henriquez
bean5302 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
At a glance, he looks like a younger, better version of Drew Strotman by the numbers. Henriquez generates a lot of whiffs, but as you say, there seems to be something batters are really squaring up. It's also not like Henriquez is super wild. He's only hit two batters since May 22, and those two were in back to back games. I suspect Henriquez is just lacking command of a pitch or two and it gets clobbered from time to time, but it's just a guess. Consistent high strikeouts and whiff rates with pretty solid walk rates. Just a lot of hits. It's not a combo seen much. But, I'm just guessing. Giving up a ton of hits feels like a bigger problem than struggles with walks so I haven't really been that into Henriquez. -
Buxton had another career tying year. I'm not sure what people expected of him. Buxton playing DH shouldn't have impacted the team. I've talked about this before, but Buxton cannot be counted on for more than 80 games a season. 100 games is probably Buxton's ceiling so if the Twins were going to lock him up long term, they needed a MLB caliber starting CF on the roster besides Buxton. Therein lies the problem Buxton doesn't cost $15MM. He costs $15MM plus another starting caliber CF because Buxton misses so many games, the 2nd CF is a requirement. Conventionally, Buxton more than made up for his contract, but considering the real cost for a team having Buxton is the 2nd center fielder, it's a little murkier IMHO. All that doesn't matter though. Buxton is here and he's here to stay for many, many more years.
- 33 replies
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- derek falvey
- thad levine
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The 3 Most Upsetting Developments on the Farm This Year
bean5302 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
Nick Gordon is better than Acuna this year, just sayin'- 36 replies
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- austin martin
- jordan balazovic
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At least it's over now. The season is done and the Twins are all but statistically eliminated. With 15 games to play and the magic number 9, the Twins would basically need to win out and for Cleveland to go worse than 8-7. That is not happening. Even if Cleveland went 8-7 (or worse), the losses must not come against the White Sox who are 3 games up on the Twins as well.
- 32 replies
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- sonny gray
- ronny henriquez
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How Certain Should We Be About the 2023 Twins?
bean5302 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I have a tendency to expect what @gunnarthor is saying, but I do think discounting Ryan's ability to improve is a bit premature. I think Ryan could improve since his secondary offerings were not utilized heavily in the minors. That said, I think there are far more starters like Ryan who back up a promising rookie campaign with a sophomore slump or permanent decline as the scouting reports become more clear on pitcher's capabilities and batters start sitting on weak pitches they know are coming.- 25 replies
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- carlos correa
- jorge lopez
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