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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    This article couldn't be further off. Other teams rely on pitches to determine starts, not TTO. The TTO concept being implemented in such a hard set fashion is seemingly unique to the Twins. The Twins set an all time MLB record for the longest time into the season for a pitcher to hit 100 innings. - That is not a trend or similar to other teams. It's an all time record (which makes it exceptional). Archer, Gray and Bundy all rank at or near the absolute bottom of MLB starters in terms of their average appearance length. 75% of all starters in MLB average at least 5.1 innings. Twins = 20% (Ryan = 5.1) 50% of all starters in MLB average at least 5.2 innings. Twins = 0% 25% of all starters in MLB average at least 6.0 innings. Twins = 0% Pitches per game? Same story. 75% of all starters in MLB average at least 85 pitches per start. Twins = 20% (Joe Ryan = 87) 50% of all starters in MLB average at least 90 pitches per start. Twins = 0% 25% of all starters in MLB average at least 94 pitches per start. Twins = 0% Percentile rank by pitches per start. Joe Ryan 35% (78/120) Sonny Gray 6% (113/120) Dylan Bundy 4% (115/120) Chris Archer 0% (120/120) The Twins are not part of a baseball trend. The Twins are unique. Other teams allow starters to keep pitching when they're effective. The Twins do not. The Twins pull pitchers who are pitching well because of the false pretense of a major drop off in performance related to TTO and the organization seems to be refusing to alter it's seemingly failed strategy.
  2. bean5302
    Yes. Varland was pulled too early, putting the Twins into a situation the bullpen didn't need to be in and the Twins lost. I don't have any faith in Falvey, Levine and Baldelli at this point.
  3. bean5302
    There have been articles released about it over the years and it seems like mangameslost.com may have the data, but it's a paid site.
  4. bean5302
    Very exciting for Varland to get called up! I hope he views the Yankees as just another team and not so pensively as fans on this site. If he goes out and shows command of his pitches, he'll have a good shot at giving the Twins a solid start. Sometimes I do wonder if the Twins psyche themselves out when facing New York. The Yankees average 5.0 runs per game at home and 4.2 on the road. Less than a run per game per difference, but it feels like the expectation is they'll hang 10 on the Twins.
  5. bean5302
    The Twins, White Sox and Guardians are running a different kind of 3 legged race, but still just as awkward looking as the normal kind. Except, sometimes, fans just want to put the burlap sack over their heads haha. At least it feels like the rest of the central is intent on keeping the the division wide open so fans can just enjoy the excitement of the potential for the playoffs
  6. bean5302
    I don't think all the Twins' players used have been the result of injury. The Twins have manufactured some the need to be creative with the MiLB to MLB shuttle due to the way the TTO pitching strategy has been implemented. The Twins are 2nd in MLB in terms of IL players behind the Reds at 31 total. The Twins are 3rd in MLB in terms of IL days spent, behind the Reds and Rays, just a tick ahead of the Cubs. The Twins are 14th in MLB in terms of IL dollars spent. This is often the place where wins lost are counted. This is where the star players are often counted. Obviously, this doesn't normalize the dollar figure with the percentage of the team salary which might also be helpful. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/2021/cumulative-team/ It might be interesting to evaluate the front office's record in relation to their peer teams in terms of all three, plus percentage of salary.
  7. bean5302
    I think the AFL is fine. While the tone in here suggests the AFL is only for elite prospects, I disagree with that. I see mostly either elite prospects who have lost a large portion of the season to injury or prospects who aren't elite, but who may have had a season which wasn't long enough for the front office's to accept the results as proven. A lot of the time the AFL seems to get prospects who just need more playing time. Conversely, the players who've already had longer seasons than what they're used to (college starters typically don't exceed 80-100 innings) run the risk of wearing out and breaking down with serious injuries if they're overworked so filling an expanded group of rosters might not be ideal.
  8. bean5302
    I just don't see Winder as a legitimate starter anymore, and I've been as high on him as anybody. I don't think his shoulder can handle the workload. As far as this year, he's missed so much time he'll need to be stretched back out and there just really isn't enough time to do it and still make more than a start or two for the Twins IMHO.
  9. bean5302
    Lopez since joining the Twins: 3.09 ERA, 3.12 FIP, 4.25 xFIP 18.8% K (poor), 8.3% BB (acceptable), 1.37 WHIP (poor), .364 BABIP (very unlucky). He's pitched in 12 games and allowed runs in 3 of them, blowing 2 saves. 75% of the time, Lopez puts up a 0 so far. It's not great, for sure, and fans were expecting great, but it's a very small sample size. Lopez has 50% of his season with the Twins left, still. Duran has pitched in 50 games and allowed runs in 7 of them. 86% of the time, Duran puts up a 0 so far, and that's fairly on track for an elite closer. No runs allowed about 85% of the time.
  10. bean5302
    He became the first pitcher in MLB history to throw any non-fastball pitch at 100+ mph.
  11. bean5302
    Gordon started off with much less impressive exit velocities as well. He's learned to adapt his swing and approach to make better contact in general, and he's put on weight. A breakdown per 100 plate appearances and how his exit velocity almost immediately jumped up. Gordon has been hitting the ball hard for a very long time. His hard hit rates increased relatively quickly, too. 88.7 93.7 91.5 91.1 90.6 92.5 While Gordon is referred to as "slender" so is Byron Buxton. From my understanding, Gordon is 6'1" and about 180lbs right now. 180lbs is plenty for a lot of strength.
  12. bean5302
    Canterino never pitched more than 99.1 innings for Rice, and he never averaged more than 6.2 innings per start, and less than 6.0 in his rookie year. The innings he pitched and batters he faced was never leading or close to leading the league. It's also been 3 years now.
  13. bean5302
    Gordon's arm should be way stronger than Kepler's. I seriously don't get where this arm complaint on Gordon comes from? He was drafted as a shortstop and at the time he was throwing 90mph off the mound as a pitching prospect and mid 90s across the diamond in the infield. He was graded with a 50+ arm. Kepler has an okay arm for right field, and he's been hesitant to go all out with it since having a tear in his UCL and multiple shoulder issues. He's been below average on arm related statistics for RF his entire career.
  14. bean5302
    I think I'd trade Kepler and make Gordon the starting RF next year. Celestino can handle the 4th outfielder duty. Gordon's been far above average for a hitter since early in the season. His exit velocities are elite and he's found a way to get enough angle on the ball that extra bases have been rolling in.
  15. bean5302
    He had a strained UCL last year. He had a strained UCL this year. The strain he had this year eventually required surgery.
  16. bean5302
    Chase Petty last 4 starts at A+ as a 19yr old = 3.06 ERA, 2.29 FIP, 13.25 K/9 (35.6%), 1.53 BB/9 (4.1%), 0.96 WHIP. He is dominating high A right now, and he's looking like a true potential ace despite his first A+ start hiccup. It's not like anybody can say he'll continue to dominate since sometimes things just don't pan out (Balazovic). The false dilemma is strong on the Gray or Petty choice around here. You could have both. Or you could have Petty and a different starter. I'm sure the Reds didn't say "Petty or NOTHING!!!"
  17. bean5302
    I feel like losing the Wildcard series 2-1 would be like tossing a cracker to a starving person.
  18. bean5302
    A lot depends on this post season. If the Twins make it, win a playoff series or especially the World Series, it will be worth it. A playoff series win would be absolutely huge for this franchise. If the Twins miss the postseason, it's going to be very hard to justify the outflow of talent, especially if the top prospects in the minors don't all take major steps forward down the stretch.
  19. bean5302
    Looking for a little bright side (like the Twins' fWAR) isn't wrong, and the trade moves were all very good. The reviews were all glowing around here because it was obvious the moves the front office made were good. It's just a question of whether or not it was enough.
  20. bean5302
    Gordon actually has a very strong arm... He was throwing mid 90s across the diamond. You can hate him for his first step, but he has all the tools to be a solid center fielder including the range, the route running and the arm.
  21. bean5302
    I do not see the Twins picking up Bundy's option at $11MM. It's just too much to pay for even a solid #5. I also think Bundy might turn this season into a 2 year contract somewhere. It's tough to gauge what the market will look like.
  22. bean5302
    If spin rates and pitch velocity were the only things that mattered, Pagan would be great. He's not. You can have the best spin rate in the world and the highest velocity in the world, but if the hitters know when and where the ball is going to be, they're going to put it in the seats. Very few pitchers are Mariano Rivera who can throw a single pitch with devastating results. Deception is important. If hitters know what's coming, they're going to crush it. Placement is important. Hang a curve in the meat of the strike zone and hitters will crush it. Velocity is valuable. Obviously, faster means less time to react. Spin rate is valuable. The faster is spins, the more it moves, but when it moves can depend a lot on the grip and throwing motion. If a ball consistently moves in a nice arc, hitters will crush it. Later break is much better. Bundy may not have huge velocity, but there's a big velocity and movement separation between his pitches. Lefties struggle to figure out whether it's a changeup, curve or a 4 seamer and righties need to figure out if it's a 4 seamer, sinker or slider. If they all look the same coming out of the hand, it's just a guessing game. Guess wrong and it's a strike or mediocre contact. Because Bundy doesn't issue free passes, and he can get away with allowing more hits. WHIP is what's important and Bundy's WHIP is 1.21 (good enough).
  23. bean5302
    It's possible, but the Twins would have to call him up in the next 2 days if he's going to be eligible for the playoffs. How crazy would it be to call him up later, have him perform well, then have to cut him before the playoffs?
  24. bean5302
    Twins fans just seem to get so attached to players who don't "suck." When it comes to Gio Urshela, his current salary is $6.5MM and his raise will probably be to something along the lines of $10MM. He's not a better option at 3B, 1B or DH than what the Twins have right now, even with all their current injuries, and I wouldn't want him playing away from those positions due to defensive value. He's honestly not a better option than what we already have today, right now, and $10MM could be much better spent someplace other than corner infield depth.
  25. bean5302
    I would non-tender Urshela and allow him to enter free agency.
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