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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    I think it's impossible to predict the Royals this year. They're going to be much better than last year, but they're still relying on a ton of unproven young prospects. If some of those guys take a big step forward, the Royals could end up at .500. I think they're somewhere in the 75-79 wins area.
  2. bean5302
    I have decided Royce Lewis will be even better this year than he was last year. Full season. wRC+ 160, great defense at 3B. 6-7 WAR. MVP!!! LOL.
  3. bean5302
    I don't think any of these guys is being overlooked.
  4. bean5302
    Berrios with Toronto 2021 - 5-4, 12 GS, 9 QS, 70.1 IP, 3.58 ERA, 3.28 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, Toronto 6-6 (.500) in Berrios starts, signed extension 2022 - 12-7, 32 GS, 17 QS, 172.0 IP, 5.23 ERA, 4.55 FIP, 4.21 xFIP, Toronto 23-9 (.719) in Berrios starts 2023 - 11-12, 32 GS, 15 QS, 189.2 IP, 3.65 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, Toronto 17-15 (.531) in Berrios starts While Berrios' stats looked really bad in 2022, Toronto won the games where he started on the mound over 70% of the time, and despite the nasty ERA, Berrios was more inconsistent than bad as he put up more than 1/2 his starts as quality starts (that's not at all common these days). Berrios has lived up to a mid/upper rotation arm for Toronto for the most part, but that wouldn't have made him worth the huge contract on his own. The fact he's been able to make every start and go out there to pitch 6 innings has been worth the extra cost on the contract, I think. Berrios was just handed the opening day starter job for the Blue Jays this year. I'd say Toronto is probably more than happy with the contract so far.
  5. bean5302
    Does Gray HAVE to have a $10MM contract this year? Or could the Twins have done $16MM/$25MM/$30MM or another variant not quite so backloaded? I didn't intend on analyzing the contracts of all 30 MLB teams and their playoff fate based on percentage of salary over say the past decade to get a good sample size. Royce Lewis Super 2 Arb 1. He wins the MVP this year.... obviously. LOL Honestly, it's part love of Lewis and part just being accepting of a little potential cushion.
  6. bean5302
    I don't understand the move unless the Twins are going to cut bait on a different MLB contract bullpen veteran. That said, Chavez was good last year. 1.56 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 3.40 xFIP with Atlanta. His K/BB rates and ground ball rates were very good in Spring Training. 33.3% HR/FB rate and a .458 BABIP led to the gaudy ERA. I haven't watched his game to know whether it was luck (probably) or just ineffective pitches.
  7. bean5302
    The Twins obviously want to see Brooks Lee play at SS. He's not been scouted as a good runner, and sources like Fangraphs feel he's taken a step back in his range already. The question is whether or not Brooks Lee could possibly be an MLB-caliber SS as more than an emergency fill in. I think the Twins are pretty confident Lee's current range limits would be able to handle 3B, and his strong arm makes up for his expected lack of range at 2B. If Correa were to go down, I expect Lewis, Farmer or Castro would be starting at SS with Austin Martin being called up. It'll take two IL-60 injuries before Brooks Lee gets a potential opportunity, IMHO. Even then, it's not guaranteed if the Twins are having Lee work on something at AAA because there's also Severino on the 40 man and Prato who the Twins aren't nearly as invested in.
  8. bean5302
    The "switch hitters shouldn't be platooned" line of thinking Baldelli was talking about earlier this year seems like a poor take to me. Santana can't hit RHP at the MLB average level, and he's not providing any positive positional value as a 1B. I mean, I'm sure Julien could technically stand in the right handed batters box to qualify as a "switch hitter" but like Aaron Hicks, it doesn't mean it's going to produce good results from both sides, lol. Brooks Lee's splits were -.257 OPS in 109 plate appearances while hitting as a RHB vs. LHB in 2023. As you noted, he hit lefties well in 2022 with +.117 OPS, but in a tiny 24 plate appearances. Also, the vast majority of Lee's plate appearances in 2022 came in low minors so I'm not sure I'd want to rely on them as much as looking at AA/AAA results like I did with Wallner. The takeaway from Lee not making the team is probably this. He's going to get plate appearances, he's going to get the opportunity to prove himself, and the Twins are incredibly deep on valuable MLB caliber infielders so the upside Brooks Lee could bring over the guys we already have is probably very limited. We'll get our stats to review as the season goes on :)
  9. bean5302
    Yep. super SSS, especially one that comes with sporadic plate appearances should be taken with a grain of salt. No idea whether or not Wallner will hit lefties well enough to avoid the platoon, but Wallner's splits in the minors look dramatically better than Julien or Kirilloff so I think it's worth seeing what they have for at least a few months. Benching a starter 30 games a year for left handed starters seems like a lot of value to potentially give up.
  10. bean5302
    https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/payroll/2025/ Rather than guessing or putting an insane amount of memory to work, you can use Spotrac. I've found myself relying on the site more and more for data because it's so handy. From predicting free agent MV's to tracking contracts and seeing some of the stuff not always considered (like IL payroll). 2025 = $117MM including all options of which I expect $20MM will be declined. 26 Man Active Roster C - $5MM 1B - $2MM 2B - Pre-Arb SS - Included 3B - $6MM LF - Pre-Arb CF - Included RF - Pre-Arb DH - Pre-Arb UI - Pre-Arb UO - Pre-Arb BC - Included PH - Pre-Arb SP1 - Included SP2 - Included SP3 - Arb1 $4MM SP4 - Arb1 $3MM SP5 - Pre-Arb RP1 - Arb1 $3MM RP2 - Arb1 $3MM RP3 - Arb1 $3MM RP4 - Included RP5 - Pre-Arb RP6 - Pre-Arb RP7 - Pre-Arb RP8 - Pre-Arb Average $1MM for each pre-arb person in case the Twins retain an arb eligible player at a low salary (like Trevor Larnach or Justin Topa, etc). That's about $138MM, assuming the Twins don't move a significant contract or two to clear some space, and I expect they will move Vazquez if possible. Puts them at $128MM, with room for a $25MM addition as payrolls and revenues continue to expand. Correa's contract starts shrinking quite a bit starting in 2026.
  11. bean5302
    Toronto's biggest problem, as previously mentioned, is playing in the toughest division in baseball. Perennial juggernauts like the Yankees and Red Sox, plus the Rays. All three of those teams are usually very good. Now the Orioles are showing up to the fight as well. Toronto is a good team. They're still in the thick of the playoff odds this year.
  12. bean5302
    The proper way to refer to Canada is USA, Jr. or Junior for short. That's what you Canadians like best, right? Just trying to be respectful :D
  13. bean5302
    Aaron Judge last year in the majors 8/25-9/3 41 PA .139/.244/.389 wRC+ 73 Clearly that hack can't be batting at the MLB level.
  14. bean5302
    Matt Wallner has hit LHP well when given the opportunity in the minors. Using much larger sample sizes including his MLB and MiLB stats. 2023 All Levels vs. RHP 430 PA = .283/.407/.514 OPS .921 vs. LHP 129 PA = .239/.326/.522 OPS .848 2022 All Levels vs. RHP 447 PA = .281/.414/.525 OPS .939 vs. LHP 185 PA = .257/.378/.533 OPS .911
  15. bean5302
    Except Matt Wallner has never started the year with the Twins. The comment appears designed to lead people to believe Matt Wallner is a slow starter, a guy who needs extra plate appearances before his timing gets ironed out and his bat comes around to explain the poor Spring Training. That has not been the case. Wallner has generally raked out of the gate. Matt Wallner, first 10 games. 2021 = .289/.378/.553 OPS .930, 11.1% BB, 44.4% K, wRC+ 147 (A+) 2022 = .083/.205/.167 OPS .371, 13.6% BB, 43.2% K, wRC+ -9 (AA) 2023 = .214/.333/.464 OPS .798, 9.1% BB, 39.4% K, wRC+ ? (AAA/MLB) Matt Wallner, first 20 games. 2021 = .338/.398/.635 OPS 1.033, 7.2% BB, 36.1% K, wRC+ 173 (A+) 2022 = .243/.353/.543 OPS .896, 15.3% BB, 38.8% K, wRC+ 117 (AA) 2023 = .250/.432/.482 OPS .915, 20.2% BB, 32.4% K, wRC+ ? (AAA/MLB/AAA) As far as I'm concerned Wallner is just making some adjustments or changing his approach or it's just SSS luck this Spring.
  16. bean5302
    This is not true. Wallner has raked right out of the gate 2 of the past 3 seasons. I think I commented on this earlier on a different thread. Not sure if your comment came after or before that.
  17. bean5302
    I want Brooks Lee to prove he can hit at the AAA level, and especially hit LHP before calling him up. The Twins saying nice things about him is good, but they're not going to throw a top prospect under the bus. Lee isn't on the 40 man, and he won't be rule 5 eligible until after the 2025 season, and the Twins don't really have a good every day position for Lee to fill at the moment. The Twins appear committed to Julien at 2B for now, Correa at SS and Lewis at 3B. Lee's lack of a good speed means he's probably a poor fit for an outfield position, and his history of being very weak from the right side of the plate means he's potentially a LHH platoon candidate like Julien, Wallner, and Kirilloff are already treated. I'd rather Lee get experience and make adjustments at AAA rather than rushing him to MLB and endlessly tinkering with him in the big show like they did with Byron Buxton.
  18. bean5302
    This is a pretty good link if people are interested in the illegal bookmaker element. https://sportshandle.com/ohtani-bombhell-shifts-investigation-to-bowyer/ From everything I can tell right now, MLB, the Dodgers, Mizuhara, Ohtani and Bowyer's public positions currently amount to: No MLB betting No Ohtani involvement Embezzlement of Ohtani's money by Mizuhara Wire fraud by Mizuhara Illegal book making if bets were placed by Mizuhara from prohibited states. MLB and L.A. probably aren't going to have a lot of power to influence the case since it's being handled by the feds.
  19. bean5302
    I don't think that's going to happen, but I suppose Lewis could be expensive by 2026 as he's a super two with a lot of star potential. Vazquez, Farmer, and Kepler all clear nearly $30MM AAV off the books before then. The extra arbitration costs are unlikely to exceed that, IMHO.
  20. bean5302
    Yeah, I'm not super enthusiastic about skip-starts to limit innings. It feels like many starting pitchers benefit enormously from routine and when clubs start messing with that rest/recovery routine, you see injuries and ineffectiveness crop up. I don't have stats to back that up, it's just a sense I've gotten over the years. It's not like Paddack is a 21yr old prospect. He's a 28 year old veteran who pitched last year and had a normal offseason. His surgery is 2 years ago. Either his arm will hold or it won't. At least that's my opinion.
  21. bean5302
    As I read through this seemingly very emotionally charged topic, I realized... somebody was WRONG on the internet, and it MUST be corrected!
  22. bean5302
    Why wasn't a similar value contract going to happen? It's $10MM this year, which is less than what Polanco was making. The Twins have only $80MM guaranteed on the books in 2025.
  23. bean5302
    Not much of a difference between the two in defense or base running, TBH, but if you looked at the raw numbers and accepted them, you'd probably know that. Castro was excellent last year with Baldelli finally green lighting steals, but Castro had never stolen more than 9 before last year. Gordon stole 6 bases in 2022 and 10 bases in 2021 when the Twins were about the most conservative in MLB. It's really tough to say how it would have looked with the new rules for Gordon, but there's no denying Castro has a speed advantage over Gordon in a foot race. Defensively, despite all the hate Gordon got, he was pretty neutral defensively at all positions he played over the past couple years.
  24. bean5302
    If I gambled, I'd take the under on Buxton at 125 games all day.
  25. bean5302
    Meh. The bullpen is still a major strength for the Twins. Funderburk is probably substantially better than Thielbar at this point. Stewart and Jax make the loss of Duran much less severe with Alcala likely filling the 2nd open spot as a lower leverage middle reliever.
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