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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Ober's in a lot of trouble right now. Obviously, ST stats are clean because players are working on things. That's how a guy like Mickey Gasper rocks 1.000 OPS' in Spring Training, after all. Coupled with the drop in velo, there are some glaring concerns. That chase rate is not playable. 22.6% O-Swing and 85.7% O-Contact says Ober's not fooling anybody at all. He's being forced to work in the zone more despite not getting the first pitch over for a strike. If that's just a function of him working on stuff, which it shouldn't be for a veteran like him, then fine. If it's Ober's real stuff, he's absolutely cooked as a starter.
  2. bean5302
    What I've read is things were "collaborative" which had led to me believing Zoll's opinions were highly valuable when Falvey agreed with them. Falvey feels like the type of guy who hires a yes man or brown noser who has an echo chamber for feedback. Just my feel for things.
  3. bean5302
    Joe Mauer was a first ballot HoF'er for a reason. His hit tool was 80. Excellent eye at the plate and pitch recognition and a line drive approach fit him best. Even in the twilight of his career, Mauer's average exit veloicty was 90+mph. Max exit velos look to have been about 108mph. Jenkins seems to have more raw power than Mauer did based on that 110mph exit velo, and he hit 107 in Spring Training. It's totally unfair to compare Jenkins to Mauer, btw. They're not even remotely close to the same hitter. We'll get a much better feel for who Jenkins is as a hitter with the improved metrics available at the AAA level, I expect. There's no question Walker Jenkins is going to be in MLB, it's a question of when. Given how inexperienced he is, and how his body could change as he ages into his 20s will clarify his true ceiling. Also, whether he's truly fit to cover CF vs. the corners will have a big impact.
  4. bean5302
    Emma is going to strikeout 50% at the MLB level. If the power shows up. .150/.250/.400 OPS .650 with a 10% BB and 50% K rate. wRC+ 80ish. He'll near or hit 300 strikeouts in a full season.
  5. bean5302
    Fedko's a non-prospect, but he had a great performance at AA last year, and Kala'i Rosario is fringey so I think the Twins probably just wanted to get a closer look at them to see if anything's been overlooked. I don't believe either had even a 1% shot at making the 40 man, but this spring invite may have influenced how the team will view them throughout the year even if they put up good seasons. Schobel's a comp-B pick from 2022, with a slow promotion cycle (not sure why the article think he's been challenged by the Twins... just challenged to hit). Promotion, struggle, repeat, looks better in his 2nd or 3rd go 'round. Also a borderline non-prospect at this point entering his age 25 season. He really needs to shine this year quickly in AAA if he ever wants to have his number called.
  6. bean5302
    So do you have Emma or Walker Jenkins in your top 10? LOL
  7. bean5302
    Why? Can't hit, can't field. We have plenty of AA and AAA caliber players as good or better than Urshela.
  8. bean5302
    Just go get Noah Miller back if that's what we can stomach.
  9. bean5302
    For people arguing results are what matter... Mickey Gasper is at .364/.462/.727 OPS 1.189 this spring.
  10. bean5302
    Topa is going to get a spot. Nobody cares about ERA for relievers in ST. If anything, the front office will look at Topa's elite looking 32% K rate and ensure he remains on the roster. The only a few concerns with MiLB ST invite guys are: How did their stuff look? (not much to go on here) Do they have an opt-out? No. Do they have options? No. If the don't have an opt-out, what are the consequences of trying to DFA them? Altavilla is on a MiLB contract and he doesn't have an opt-out. He's not making the team. If the Twins DID add Altavilla to the roster, they'd risk losing him if they wanted to DFA him because A) teams could pick him up off waivers and B) Altavilla has 5+ years service time and he could refuse an assignment... which he would.
  11. bean5302
    We've seen Ober at 88-89mph. He gets destroyed. I'm not quite as pessimistic on the velo as an above poster because a few of Ober's early fastballs/sinkers were like 89.9mph (really 90), though velo dropped FAST in later innings with him struggling to hit 88 and several 87.x mph offerings. There are virtually zero successful MLB starters (guys you'd want in the rotation with ERA/FIP/xFIPs under 4.50 with fastballs averaging under 90.0mph. You get super elite first ballot HoF'ers late in their careers (Kershaw) who are the pinnacle of experience and non-fastball offerings with pinpoint control... and pretty much nobody else. Quinn Priester is the exception to the rule above across 127 pitchers with 100+ innings last year. Is Bailey Ober going to be the 1%er? Highly unlikely.
  12. bean5302
    I think it's fair to note Falvey was fired for a reason. Zoll seems to have absorbed Falvey's role, but he's part of the failure. I think Zoll will be fired before the end of the year no matter what happens, TBH. He's a placeholder keeping things together. Way too much doom and gloom in this thread about a backup shortstop. Brooks Lee is not an MLB caliber shortstop. He's not and he never will be, and the Twins have a bunch of other "who knows if this guy should be playing in MLB?" positions. That's the issue. Not the depth at SS, which I think is fine. We've got sufficient emergency depth. Orlando Arcia is fine as a backup depth guy.
  13. bean5302
    https://www.mlb.com/twins/video/austin-martin-exits-game-with-injury A very awkward dive for a ball. Seemed like he spun himself trying to get his glove into a better position and he over-rotated. Looks like the right side of his head may have bounced off the turf.
  14. bean5302
    Concussion issues are obviously scary for players. I hate to hear about Martin getting his bell rung. I don't share the sentiment that he's "finally getting his chance" since he was the opening day utility outfielder in 2024 playing (poorly) in 93 games. I think he was in a good place to get plate appearances again this year, and if the concussion is clears normally, I think he'll still get his opportunities this year. Here's hoping.
  15. bean5302
    I like Arcia here. Exit velocity has looked solid enough this spring at 89.5mph, and he's already had a 104.5mph shot with 2 barrels after recording only 4 barrels all last year. His plate discpline has looked okay, and his overall upside is significantly above our starting "shortstop." The other guys aren't going anywhere.
  16. bean5302
    Chafin. Hands down. He's one of the most reliable relievers in baseball while Funderburk is one of the least reliable. No idea how we got Chafin. All Chafin does is go out and produce 0.5+ fWAR per year for cheap. Among MLB relief pitchers with 120+ innings pitched (243 or 8 per team) from 2021-2025, Chafin ranks 41st in MLB.
  17. bean5302
    I get being optimistic about the team's prospects and pipeline, but, this is way too over the top. Frontline starters pretty much all have a dominant pitch or two. Bradley? No. Abel? Maaayyybe the curve. Rojas? Nothing proven. Matthews? No. As a group, expecting more than #3 caliber results out of them is a big reach. This collection of starters isn't absolutely capped at mid rotation, after all, Joe Ryan has gone from a #5 profile guy to a mid-upper rotation starter since arriving in the league. That said, it's not common for pitchers to be able to develop entirely new pitches and have success with them like Ryan has.
  18. bean5302
    I think "technically" no formal punishment has been handed down. It's just a formality, though. They're banned for life. Ramirez is 33 this year. Like clockwork for the last 10 years he's been basically been a 6 WAR full season player with outstanding durability by modern standards. There will come a time when his decline begins to surface, but he hasn't shown any obvious signs yet.
  19. bean5302
    Are you intentionally working hard to take my comment out of context? The Twins have played the yo-yo game with a number of younger players when it comes to short leashes. Much more so on the position player side of the equation than the pitching side. The criteria you've set to prove validity of my position that having a short leash on players influences their methodology require the player to perform poorly with the Twins, be shuffled frequently between the minors and majors, then be given a subsequent more patient environment and to go on to be far better for another team. Pretty narrow. I think it's common knowledge setting an unrealistic expectation for performance, then punishing a person for not hitting that performance number is a bad environment.
  20. bean5302
    There's enough talent on the White Sox to win 75+ games this year. Losing Kyle Teel for the first month or two won't be great for them, but provided some of their low-key OF acquisitions pan out, their lineup could be respectable enough overall. Their rotation is probably going to be a mess, but projections seem overly pessimistic to me. I don't think they'll lose 100, but.... terrible, terrible, terrible culture there for a long time. Just tough to say.
  21. bean5302
    Andrew Albers first 2 games started at the MLB level. 17.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 SHO
  22. bean5302
    The Falzoll Twins have a history of the quick hook for young players. I think it's a real shame, too because it messes with people to know every time you don't strike somebody out, every plate appearance where you don't hit a home run, you're likely to get demoted. That kind of mentality destroys development and younger players. Making a decision based on 10 innings in Spring Training is pretty wild. Matthews should get the nod as part of the rotation so long as he looks better in his next start or two.
  23. bean5302
    Kreideler gets a month... in AAA before the Twins release him IMHO. He's not going to hit, and there is no world where he should make opening day.
  24. bean5302
    I don't see any value in extending Joe Ryan or Pablo Lopez right now. None. I see very little from either player's perspective, either. Neither Lopez nor Ryan make the cut as bone fide ace caliber pitchers in my book. They've been solid playoff caliber starters the past couple of years, and Joe Ryan's 2025 had particiularly impressive results, but with FIPs suggesting quite a bit of luck on his side (it's important to note Ryan's career results are all in line ERA/FIP/xFIP). Of the two, Joe Ryan would be my preference to extend, but I still don't see a good reason to do it if the Twins aren't going to $150MM+ in the payroll department, but it's very important to note extending a player in their Arb 3 season is now a TOTALLY different ballgame after the Skubal decision. There is no "Joe Ryan takes a discount" concept anymore. He's going to make $20MM next year in Arb 3 if he delivers another 3 WAR season. What does locking up a #2-3 starter do for the Twins? Having a jersey you recognize while the team loses 100 games? IDGAF. Signing free agents and extending deep into free agency means the team's player development department failed. Period. It's about 4x more expensive to buy free agency WAR than team controlled WAR. For infinite payroll teams like the Dodgers, no big deal. For payroll constrained teams like the Twins, it's reckless. All it takes is one step back and the Twins have a $25MM Phil Hughes on the roster.
  25. bean5302
    Culpepper projects as a below average MLB bat based on his performance in AA (which was good, but hardly exciting for the level). It's a big year for him, and I can't imagine him not starting off in AAA. He's also had a good spring. If he's able to produce at a similar clip in St. Paul, it'll go a long way to easing my concerns.
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