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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Hahaha, good on Dobnak beating the odds and just continuing to show up in MLB. I like the Twins chances here, but you never know.
  2. bean5302
    85-77 does have a shot at winning the division if no team makes upgrades. The Twins are projected at 80-82 right now, though, so even if no team in the Central manages to show up for the rest of the year, the Twins are still 5 games out of a "shot" at making the playoffs.
  3. bean5302
    Whomever it takes. I don't care. Is my point not coming across? Is there something that I'm not making really crystal clear here? That I would literally trade EVERY. SINGLE. PROSPECT. IN. THE. TWINS. SYSTEM for a World Series Championship. Everybody. Every single prospect. Everyone. I hope that's more clear now. Everybody. Not one single prospect left on the entire farm system. Wichita, St. Paul, Cedar Rapids and Ft Myers forfeiting games because there's nobody left on the roster. I literally don't care. Maybe talking about eventual production from hypothetically good some day prospects is all you care about, and an infinite 81-81 record just missing the playoffs is your hope and dream. Looking in the stands at Target Field and comments on this forum and other sites, most people would like a World Series caliber team. Does it take Walker Jenkins to make this trade happen? No sweat off my brow. I don't care. Toss in Lackey to the guys headed out of the door? No problem. But the trades have to be combined with moves that make the Twins a World Series competitor. This year... and for however many years we need to justify the trading of assets. Either that or don't make any upgrades, sell off Buxton, Jeffers, Ryan, Larnach, Bell, and pretty much every single other free agent at the end of the year. I want a championship caliber team. Today or next year or the year after. I want the goal of my team to be aiming for a Championship. Not a .500 record with a reach goal of winning the ********* division in baseball followed by an immediate sweep out of the playoffs.
  4. bean5302
    Are you insinuating Jeffers is stupid and he has no Earthly idea a 3 year deal is the absolute minimum he'd possibly get in free agency? And if he's so stupid, the Twins should take advantage of that and sign him to a predatory contract?
  5. bean5302
    Twins were 25-22 without Jeffers last I checked.
  6. bean5302
    Right. High K rate, power but bad contact. Athletic but rock glove. Winokur is barely hanging on as a top 20 prospect right now.
  7. bean5302
    I'd trade every single one of our top 20 prospects for a World Series title. Targeting middling upgrades isn't worth the effort. Articles like this one, cautiously targeting a potential playoff appearance are the problem with this franchise. "Competitive" = one and done teams. I don't want to give anything up for an 81-81 record and a 50/50 shot at the playoffs. Adrian Morejon and Mason Miller should be the kind of targets the Twins are looking at.
  8. bean5302
    I don't know what a realistic scenario is. Mediocre ownership version 8,746? Twins standard operating procedure (little tweaks). Twins go from 28% chance to 31% chance? I don't care about realism. I care about "yes, this makes the Twins potential World Series competitor"
  9. bean5302
    Jeffers' is a rental. No QO option for any team that acquires him, and if the Twins keep him, extending a QO to him is highly questionable. If we look at the absolute ceiling of value, you'd have to figure $15MM surplus, and that's if the market is thirsty. Think a back end rotation arm who hasn't established themselves like Zebby or Morris at the deadline last year or a guy who has no real upside but is more established like SWR last year. Or a low minors prospect with a lot of ceiling like a Dasan Hill or a high minors prospect with a low ceiling and a high floor like a Gabriel Gonzalez. Jeffers' free agent value is probably in line with an absolute ceiling of Willson Contreras' 5yrs $88MM at this point, though Jeffers' production is about 2/3rds of Contreras over their careers up to the free agency point with Jeffers probably getting 3-4 at $15MM AAV. To get Jeffers to skip free agency, the Twins are probably going to need to overpay now so 4-5 years at $60-70MM is my guess. That's a lot to pay for a historical 2 WAR player.
  10. bean5302
    "I like Anderson" "You don't even know who Anderson is"
  11. bean5302
    All I'm saying is go big and make a real effort for the 2026 World Series push OR go big and make a real effort to 2027+. Don't half *** it.
  12. bean5302
    So we agree "anything can't happen" but also that "anything can happen" Got it.
  13. bean5302
    Then why am I seeing people advocate for minor roster changes because anything could happen?
  14. bean5302
    LOL Vallimont? Come on now. Lewis, if you squint and pretend, he could be a deep prospect, but not really. Eduardo Tait is really being tested in Cedar Rapids. Glad to see some production as it could help him if he's pressing, but he's got some work to do to adapt to better pitching. Here's hoping he can learn the plate discipline to make his skills play. LOL Vallimont? Come on now. Lewis, if you squint and pretend, he could be a deep prospect, but not really. Eduardo Tait is really being tested in Cedar Rapids. Glad to see some production as it could help him if he's pressing, but he's got some work to do to adapt to better pitching. Here's hoping he can learn the plate discipline to make his skills play. He's not changing my perspective at all.
  15. bean5302
    1987 Twins had to win only one single series to make the World Series, and the team had Bert Blyleven and Frank Viola who pitched 4 of 5 starts vs. the Tigers. Yeah, 3 days rest between starts for both. That's not happening in 2026. The 1987 World Series has both been the single best thing to happen for Minnesota Twins baseball history, and arguably the most damaging thing for the franchise as fans and owners bought into the idea it's all luck which has fueled decades of conservative mediocrity. There's nothing in common in the playoffs then vs. now. Getting lucky for a single series? That can happen. Getting lucky for 3 or 4 series' in a row? Far less likely. The 2026 team will likely need to win 3 series
  16. bean5302
    Me. IDGAF about Winokur. He's got Luke Keaschall's glove and Ryan Kreidler's bat.
  17. bean5302
    Worse chance for a bad team to beat a good team in a longer format, sir.
  18. bean5302
    The Twins could win the World Series this year after trading Joe Ryan and Byron Buxton for prospects. It's not "impossible."
  19. bean5302
    It's a trap. Believing a mediocre team that makes the playoffs has a legitimate chance to make, let alone win, a World Series is a trap. If the organizational goal is "World Series" then lightly chasing a division title with virtually no hope of advancing is a trap which will undermine the future of the franchise.
  20. bean5302
    Joe Ryan's tradeability took a complete beating with his arm fatigue diagnosis. It's going to scare the heck out of any suitor. It's such an unusual trade deadline scenario. How do owners view 2027? How confident are owners that baseball will be played or a new CBA will include a $150MM+ floor and full rev share? What will Arb 3 look like? Everything staying the same as the current CBA (I think that's kind of the best I can assume), I think Joe Ryan's value is probably $45MM, minus his outstanding salary for 2026 plus his projected Arb 3 salary. He's making $2MM the rest of this year, plus $20MM next year (have to assume that value in Arb3 based on Skubal). Forget about the mutual option. Ryan is not taking $12MM after the Skubal ruling. That'd be absurd. So surplus around $23MM? The rest is market thirst. Figure the +20% surcharge for market thirst equivalent to Berrios' deal and best case scenario, you're looking at a $30MM surplus and a deal similar to prospect in the 30-60ish range or mayyyybe two fringe top 100s. Exclude any team's top org prospect. Joe Ryan WAS worth more than double what he is now at last years deadline.
  21. bean5302
    I know. I think most people agree. Meet the new boss, same as the old boss. Twins fan apathy is high.
  22. bean5302
    I think Wallner could bring back an org #6-15 reliever prospect as there's going to be somebody out there willing to bet on Wallner being the next potential Rooker. Bell probably doesn't do more than PTBNL due to the contract.
  23. bean5302
    He's still managing the K's dramatically better than he was in previous years, though I think it's debatable on how much of that is luck since his contact and swing rates remain pretty similar. His first pitch strike rate is way, way down and that's undoubtedly making a world of difference. I think he'll probably settle down below the wRC+ 80 range which is the minimally viable point for planned regular playing time, but much better than the below zero stuff he's put up in the past. That said, it's fast approaching Kaelen Culpepper time and Kreidler isn't going to be a guy who carries the Twins to the playoffs this year or in the future.
  24. bean5302
    Source, please. I saw this made up contract a few days ago with no actual source. It's attributed to Dan Hayes of the Athletic, but there aren't any linked articles and I can't find any article when searching for it. This appears to be more likely a Twins Daily made up rumor being treated as fact and A.I. models seem to be hallucinating.
  25. bean5302
    Wallner is no longer worth anything. The Twins have made it abundantly clear how they view him, and that's AAAA. It's not like other teams haven't noticed that. Other teams have to take the Twins' view of Wallner into account because the Twins are the team who should know him far better than anybody. Wallner is in the exact same boat as Rooker was a few years ago with the Twins. Wallner needs to play for a team who will give him 200+ plate appearances as an every day player, even if he's sucking, to determine if there's any value there as an MLB player. Calling him up doesn't help anything. Where's he going to play on a team full of left handed DH's who are already masquerading as positional players more than they should? If the Twins don't believe Wallner is MLB, they should trade him and get a mid level prospect.
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