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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    153 plate appearances isn't that lengthy for a veteran player like Buxton. I mean, that's all it's generally taken for fans to declare him an MVP favorite when Buxton goes on a hot streak, but I've never bought into it. I think Buxton will finish up the year at a wRC+ of around 120, which is what I think fans should have been expecting from him since 2019. His first 10 games back from the IL was .258/.324/.516 OPS .840 wRC+ 138. He's just a streaky hitter. Lots of K's, crappy OBP, lots of power.
  2. bean5302
    Oh, in case anybody is wondering. It's any and all baseball from kids playing on a sand lot in Korea to MLB.
  3. bean5302
    I wouldn't want Alonso; feel free to read my posts on the subject. Depends on the starter, doesn't it? Are they a rental? Are they a multi-year guy? Is the ownership willing to acquire $10MM of salary at the deadline? (I bet they are).
  4. bean5302
    Addiction is not an acceptable excuse for behavior in my book, and this punishment will serve as notice to other players. Unfortunately, there's a pretty narrow path between unfair punishment and encouragement of damaging behavior. When it comes to betting on ANY baseball, it's cut and dried.
  5. bean5302
    I demand a spreadsheet with graph.
  6. bean5302
    The Twins are one pitcher away from being a dangerous World Series caliber team. I don't know why people are so negative around here. If the season ended today, the Twins are in the playoffs. They have an outstanding bullpen, some good mid rotation pitchers, and a lineup which is already dangerous, and getting better. The 1987 Twins team sucked. Viola + Blyleven, Hrbek + Puckett. That's all the team had. The rest of the starters were weak at the plate or pretty much role players.
  7. bean5302
    If Falvey had to, packaged prospects to dump his salary, but I don't think it would have taken much. Vazquez is worthless at this point, but before the season, the Twins could have picked up Joey Bart from San Francisco as an adequate backup, sent Vazquez and a 15-20 grade prospect. Obviously, that trade would look especially good in hindsight, but there were other options of a similar nature.
  8. bean5302
    I've stated this time and again. Falvey blew $20MM on backups and fringy platoon guys while keeping Kepler and Vazquez costing us another $20MM of emergency spending reserves. It's Falvey's job to know what his budget is and what he needs. 1) Starting caliber center fielder to back up Byron Buxton (fail) 2) RHH power bat (fail) 3) Front end starter (fail) Sonny Gray is earning $10MM this year. 3.00 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 2.48 xFIP. 12.16 K/9, 2.37 BB/9 EASILY better than any pitcher we have. JD Martinez is earning $4.5MM this year.
  9. bean5302
    Since I'm not going to pay money for baseballtradevalues, I'll go ahead and estimate that one: Alonso = July30+ = 1.0 WAR = $8MM, assuming the Mets eat Alonso's salary. Gonzalez is probably enough to get Alonso IMHO. Somebody might be willing to overpay for him, though. Personally, I expect Wallner/Larnach to be far better than Alonso at this point.
  10. bean5302
    The Twins honestly need a legitimate long term every day outfielder with the ability to start at CF. The only outfielder they have in the system who might be able to do that in the relative near future is probably Emmanuel Rodriguez. The closest the Twins might have otherwise is DaShawn Keirsey, but I don't think he's going to be any better than Austin Martin or Andrew Stephenson, but it's a good time to give him a shot, I guess? I keep looking at Larnach's falling stat line wondering if the bubble has burst as I'd already written him off as a 1.0-1.5 WAR outfielder. Good enough as a backup or on a team who just needs a guy who won't kill you if he plays every day. 01-10: .394/.447/.636 OPS 1.096, 10.5% BB, 21.1% K, 93.9mph EV, 11.5% Barrel, 53.8% Hard 11-20: .235/.278/.324 OPS .601, 5.6% BB, 25.0% K, 95.0mph EV, 8.0% Barrel, 56.0% Hard 21-30: .162/.244/.405 OPS .649, 9.8% BB, 17.1% K, 94.5mph EV, 13.3% Barrel, 50.0% Hard I expanded Larnach's sample size to a full season based on the approximate percentage of pitches he'd see of each type (over 5% stuff only) He's just continued doing stuff he's never done before. His K rate is WAY down, and he's hitting breaking stuff better than ever. He's been unreal against the 4 seamer, and I can't see how that is sustainable, but as his sample size grows, he's continuing to rake. He's got to stay up.
  11. bean5302
    He's not good enough to be an MLB regular. That's the issue. Without the injuries this year, he's magically kinda the same hitter he was with all of the speculatory impact from his "injuries" in the past.
  12. bean5302
    Always felt like Deduno had no place on a pitchers mound. The guy was always drilling batters high and inside due to his total lack of control. Practically a miracle he didn't end anybody's career.
  13. bean5302
    Looking back at all the pitches to Yankees hitters it seems like Ober got the benefit on a couple calls. There was only one single significant miss IMHO which helped Judge earn a walk. Royce Lewis... can we clone him?
  14. bean5302
    No he wasn't. He was brought in because Jose Miranda and Alex Kirilloff both had late season/offseason shoulder surgery and because nobody else in MLB wanted Carlos Santana on their roster so the Twins only had to pay him $5MM.
  15. bean5302
    Lewis only hits grand slams when the bases are loaded so I think what you're suggesting is theoretically impossible? LOL. Seriously, nobody will care. The guy was setting records last year with the bases loaded.
  16. bean5302
    That's why playoff caliber teams (like the Twins) make trades. Doesn't have to be for a hitter, there will be some starters available.
  17. bean5302
    I'd say no. Alonso is "good" not great hitter. wRC+ 120 territory for the past two years, which is just a bit better than I'd expect for Jose Miranda. Alonso is best suited to DH duties. So I just don't see Alonso as a significant upgrade over what I expect the Twins to be rolling out the dugout at that point. In regard to the writers idea of throwing a veteran back at the Mets to offset salary... what possible advantage would the Mets see in that type of move? The Mets are going to be happy to eat the $7MM, but they're going to eat it in the hopes of getting a better return, not to dump salary.
  18. bean5302
    The reason for the trade is you think it makes you more likely to win the World Series.
  19. bean5302
    We've missed the excitement, electricity, leadership and inspiration he brings to the game. He makes the game fun to watch, and he inspires fans and teammates to believe. He's a true face of the franchise type of guy and the only player who has the kind of charisma to be the new favorite player in team history next to Kirby Puckett. It's a huge weight/opportunity. I haven't been as excited about a player since the good 'ol days. If Lewis continues to play like he did last year, he's a potential MVP and national celebrity.
  20. bean5302
    The Twins bullpen has been as billed IMHO. Despite significant time losses by Duran and Stewart, The overall value of the bullpen isn't my focus. It's the top 3-4 arms since those are the guys you typically see when the game is on the line and Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Jhoan Duran and Jorge Alcala make for an outstanding unit at this point.
  21. bean5302
    Why do you feel Canterino's stuff is so great? He's got virtually no time above the low minors.
  22. bean5302
    Tom Kelly was a fundamentals guy, and I think there were far, far more fundamentals managers back in the day. Pitchers forgetting to cover 1B or dropping balls was less common in 1990 than 2020. I think that's worth considering.
  23. bean5302
    I think you might be slightly biased, lol. That said, defense at 1B doesn't typically matter much because the range of defensive value isn't usually super wide due to the lack of different physical skills needed to play the position. The assumption for 1B is maybe like -8 to +7 or so, no matter who you put there. Having a guy who can't catch balls at 1B would be a problem so there's something which would matter, but 25-30pts of OPS = 10 runs or so. A lousy 1B with 50 OPS higher would still be a better play than a great first baseman. So sticking Carlos Correa at 1B vs. Carlos Santana would potentially have a marginal improvement in fielding statistics. Defense at SS especially, and 2B and 3B has a tendency to stand out more because those positions require more skills. Arm strength, reaction time and acceleration are all components in the other infield positions and each additional skill means a potentially wider and wider gap between good and bad defense. Put a lousy 1B at SS and you'd literally probably see -40, but the very best SS might be +15. Carlos Santana adds marginal value over Jose Miranda or Alex Kirilloff defensively. Whoever has the better bat is the better play, given no additional holes in the lineup to fill.
  24. bean5302
    Why are you guys feeding the troll?
  25. bean5302
    Yes. They've beaten the Royals in 2 series. They've taken series' from other teams who were over .500 at the time as well, like the Red Sox (now .500). Side note, winning a lot series' against opponents over .500 isn't all that common. Falvey won't be hesitant since the front office will be swept out end of year if the Twins fail to make the playoffs.
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