bean5302

I'd be happy with an every day regular player. A perennial MVP would be nice, but seems a bit greedy, haha

Willi Castro can only play 1 position at a time, and he's playing every day so no matter where you move him to, you're automatically subtracting Castro from starting in the preferred location. The only way Castro adds significant value with flexibility is if the Twins have adequate depth at the position Castro is vacating. This type of scenario is the only way in which Castro's utility actually adds value. Castro is the 3B and he's worth 3 WAR there and he's worth 3 WAR in LF. The 3 WAR starting LF gets hurt. The Twins' hypothetical 4th outfielder is only worth 1 WAR The Twins' hypothetical utility bench guy is worth 2 WAR at 3B. Result = Left field is neutral instead of losing 2 WAR by putting the 4th outfielder there, 3B loses 1 WAR with the utility guy covering Castro's primary position, Twins are up a net 1 WAR. In the scenario above, if the bench guy is worth 1 WAR, the Twins gain nothing. They're just reorganizing the deck chairs on the Titanic as it sinks. Basically, positional flexibility from an every day player is worthless if you don't have depth behind the flexible player: you're just robbing Peter to pay Paul as they say.

...why do you think MLB increased revenue sharing from 30% to 50%?

and 50% of the revenue of the top teams goes to the bottom half, some of whom have built that welfare check right into their budget (Tampa Bay Rays) Look at the NFL and compare it to MLB in terms of teams which make the playoffs. In any case, you just said the top teams get the least amount of WAR from free agency? There are different models to building teams in MLB.

Those two are a bit of a dichotomy. In a vacuum, he doesn't swing a ton at pitches outside the zone, which is good, but he's at the very lower ranges of acceptable for swinging at pitches in the zone, and that's compared to MLB hitters who are up against much better pitching. So Severino is pretty picky about what he swings at, and despite that, his contact rates are very poor. It's nice that his contact rate against strikes was much improved this past season because it was horrible in 2023. Severino was roughly league average in AAA over both 2023 (wRC+ 100) and 2024 (wRC+ 101 with a .321 BABIP). His walks were marginally up (9.8% to 11.9%) and his strikeouts down significantly (36.6% to 27.3%), but that came with a massive drop in power production (.278 ISO to .180 ISO). Despite him being just 24 years old, 2025 will be his 9th year in an MLB organization. Severino failed to pan out as a 2B/3B or... as the Twins delusionally hoped, SS. He has shown some flashes at the plate, but apart from an absolutely scorching June, he was pedestrian for a prospect or borderline unplayable (wRC+ 63 for Aug/Sep) last year. There's just not much to project for him. If the Twins weren't in a major payroll crunch, he'd likely be a DFA candidate.

There is no significant lack of parity. Even small market teams have shown a willingness to expand payroll into the top 1/2 of MLB when their window is open. Just because the Pohlad's have ignored that doesn't mean it's not right in everybody's face. The Royals pushed opening day payroll to $140MM (top 1/2) in 2017. The Orioles pushed opening day payroll to $164MM in 2017 $143MM in 2018, both (top 1/2). The Diamondbacks opened 2024 at $157MM (top 1/2) Even iron lock wallet Cleveland expanded to $134MM in 2018 (ranked #16) used Stevetheump cause it's easy. https://www.stevetheump.com/Payrolls.htm Once teams start building and their core appears competitive, teams go out and spend on free agents and then pick up big name targets at the deadline which push their payrolls up into the top half. Having a team which just starts building turn in a surprise season to make and advance in the playoffs isn't super common despite the Royals' surprise success this year. The build process identifies key missing pieces to turn the Pohlad definition of competitive (a .500+ ballclub) into World Series hopeful team, and even small market "competitive" teams are willing to trade and spend to fill the gaps. While the Pohlad family likes to run a .500 team with an ultimate goal of winning the division, almost all other teams in baseball are aiming for a World Series.

Rosario is striking out a lot and not walking enough to compensate against low minors pitchers, certainly lower caliber than what he played against all year. He wouldn't be in the AFL if the Twins didn't need him to show more, and I'm not sure what else they could be needing for him to show against lesser competition. This is his 4th professional season. BB and K rates stabilize pretty quick. Wallner is an example of plate discipline issues and how they have to be handled. I wasn't looking for a comp for Rosario since the two players have almost nothing in common. Kala'i Rosario is like a borderline top 20ish top 30ish prospect for a reason. It's great to see him hitting well, but I'd like to see him improve on the part of his game that will prevent him from hitting well enough to make MLB, much less succeed there.

1. Can the Twins move Vazquez? - Yes. But as pointed out in 5,000 comments over the past month where moving Vazquez has been brought up as some sort of legitimate option, the Twins don't have anybody who can backup Ryan Jeffers if Vazquez is moved so moving Vazquez doesn't help in a vacuum because the Twins would just need to sign another free agent. 2. Can the Twins afford to give up on Alex Kirilloff? Kirilloff is literally hurt more than Buxton, came across awfully irresponsible and selfish last year, and he's never posted a season with more than 0.6 fWAR. I don't know where this concept of Kirilloff "potential" originates. He'll be on a MiLB contract for 2025. 3. Where does Edouard Julien go? AAA until he proves he's taken a major step forward unless the Twins field some calls from a team that's really high on Julien over the offseason. 4. Who backs up Carlos Correa? Despite the criticism of him being hobbled up, Correa was one of the more durable players in baseball from 2020-2023 ranking 73rd in all MLB. The most likely bet based on how the Twins shuffled things this year is Brooks Lee, even though it shouldn't be. 5. Do the Twins trust Royce at 3B? No. They answered that loud and clear while taking a big dump on the young face of the franchise. But for the OAA metric supporters around here, Royce's defense was above average there. 6. Can the Twins find a RHB platoon bat for LF? Sure. The Twins love platoon only, minimal value guys. The rest of the league doesn't value them much so the Twins should be able to pick up dumpster dive who is slightly above average against lefties. 7. Can the Twins find a legit starting CF to backup Buxton? Yes, but it's going to cost them a fair bit of prospect capital. 8. Is Wallner ready to put it together? Yeah, he already did. Wallner had a terrible April and first half of May. Having a bad month or two is normal. The fact Wallner raked again when he came back is all anybody should have needed to see. The Twins could have called Wallner's number a month and a half earlier than they did, but the team let him hang out in AAA because Larnach and Miranda were hitting, and for whatever reason I cannot comprehend, they still wanted to see Alex Kirilloff play more. 9. Will one of Lopez, Ryan or Ober be moved? No. I don't think Falvey has the guts. 10. What did the Twins learn about building a relief core? That you can and will get unlucky sometimes.

Actually, if you look at Kepler since Baldelli took over as the manager, it's clear the Twins were platooning him more and more. His ratio of PA per game vs. lefties and righties started shifting. Since Kepler was a veteran, he seems to have gotten some leeway.

The point is a 5% BB rate and a 40% K rate against mostly low minors pitchers doesn't work, and it's not an improvement over his 10.7% BB vs. 30.4% K rate at AA this year. Honestly, I'd be concerned if Rosario wasn't doing damage in the AFL since the competition level is certainly lower than AA where he spent almost his entire season. Plate discipline vs. more contact is pretty much potAto, poTaTo, but I'd still lean towards calling it a plate discipline issue. It's the same issue Matt Wallner had in A+ ball with a 9.5% BB, and 33.3% K rate when he was essentially put on notice that he had no future in the game without learning to take walks despite Wallner "doing damage." Meanwhile a "make more contact" issue is Emmanuel Rodriguez with his high K rate but even more absurd walk rate.

Yep. The "Twins way" isn't the only or even possibly the best way. In fact, I think teams should construct lineups based on the name on the jersey (best players) rather than the spreadsheet which tells them which number hits from which side of the plate. Ramirez (SHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 121 Kwan (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 125 J Naylor (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 124 Fry (RHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 94 Gimenez (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 90 B Naylor (LHB) vs. RHP wRC+ 78 Example. Despite being a righty, Jose Miranda has hit RHP much better than he's hit LHP over the years, but in 2024, despite raking against righties (wRC+ 142), and struggling against lefties (wRC+ 60), Baldelli continued to standard platoon Miranda. Jose Miranda (RHB vs. RHP) wRC+ 113, career Jose Miranda (RHB vs. LHP) wRC+ 91, career

Kala'i Rosario is an interesting prospect in that there's some stuff to like, but the plate discipline projects as unplayable. I'm not sure what the Twins are looking for in Rosario in the AFL as I suspect he'll return to AA next year, but an 8 K to 1 BB ratio is surely not it.

I think it results in players who never get comfortable in the field. Instead of plays being reflexive, every play requires thought. Word is the Twins are going to have Acuna practice soccer and tennis more so he'll be better able to kick baseballs or at least bat them down with his glove... that is when he's not practicing his throws to always miss a 10 foot wide target setup over 1B. Also, they've ordered him to gain weight to increase his HR power and sloooooww down that run speed so he doesn't embarrass the rest of the team.

Keirsey's defensive metrics do not paint him as a potential plus center fielder. At best, he might be able to hold his own. I really wish Keirsey would have gotten some more playing time and plate appearances at the end of the season so we could get better data on his true sprint speed. Eyeball scouting returns some serious bias.

No, it represented me not wanting to put relievers into the mix, and when I went to 40IP on my Fangraphs.com sort, I had dozens of relievers showing up. If Dobnak wasn't pitching well enough, the Twins wouldn't have added him to the 40 man and called him up.

I wasn't concerned with the Guardians' rotation before the season began or for the last couple years, actually. I just wasn't impressed with what I'd seen in terms of their results. They were always projected to suddenly get better, but it felt like the kind of expectations Twins fans and analysts had for Fernando Romero a few years ago. Often those mystical "they're going to be good because they just have to be, right!?" projections don't turn out. Cleveland has a dominant bullpen, a very solid core in their young, cost controlled position players, and more positional help close by with an outfielder in Chase DeLauter finishing the year at AAA. Oh, and they have a young shortstop who... now get this... doesn't boot balls around the infield and chuck throws into the stands?! What is this blasphemy? Baldelli and Falvey are surely throwing staplers at walls for the Guardians having the audacity to teach fielding techniques! How dare they? That's cheating! The Guardians probably have somewhere in the ballpark of $30-50MM of payroll room for next year. They'll be able to shore up some holes with that if they choose, but they're such a cheaply run franchise it's hard to say what they'll do. In any case, the Guardians probably project to be competitive with the Twins. I expect them to be behind Detroit and Kansas City.

In my offseason plan last year, I wanted the Twins to trade for Jarren Duran (Wilyer Abreu was a secondary thought). I didn't think Duran would turn into what he did, but I think there was a lot better fit the Twins' assets (Kepler, Polanco) to get Abreu or Jarren Duran last offseason. I still think the Twins might be able to get some movement on a deal by including Larnach to offset the loss of Abreu. The Twins are going to have to clear payroll to pick up O'Neill. Spotrac projects 3yrs $48MM for him. Feels super steep to me. I think he'll go for more like 1-2yrs and $15-25MM? JJ Bleday, Daulton Varsho, Brenton Doyle would be potentially better targets. Perhaps Trevor Larnach could be traded as part of those deals to offset the depth loss.

Dobnak pitched pretty well in AAA relative to his peers. Of the 130 pitchers with at least 60 innings, Dobnak ranked as follows: ERA Top 25 - 3.78 Dobnak - 4.25 (#42/130) Median - 4.59 FIP Top 25 - 4.14 Dobnak - 4.54 (#54/130) Median - 4.74 There's a reason Dobnak got an opportunity; it was because he earned it with results. There's also a reason it took so long to get that opportunity; it was because the front office thought it was probably smoke and mirrors, and it was.

I think Winder and Jackson are both better than anything you can expect from Dobnak without a major change to Dobnak's arsenal.

Abreu would be a great target, but I don't think Woods Richardson gets anywhere close to closing that deal. Abreu looks like a legit potential perennial All Star 4+ WAR player with an ability to cover CF if needed (perfect for the Twins, but great insurance for the Red Sox if Duran were to get injured.) The Red Sox are watching Tyler O'Neill hit free agency so they're not going to be excited about parting ways with a potential All Star caliber outfielder, either so lining up a trade that makes sense might be pretty difficult.

I'm inclined to think Spotrac is way high and Baseballtradevalues is way low on Cal Raleigh's. Raleigh's best comp is probably J.T. Realmuto who got 5yrs and $115MM, which seems pretty reasonable as to what Raleigh might expect on the open market right now. Will Smith's contract was at $140MM, but he was still under team control and the AAV is far lower than what free agency would get. Raleigh isn't in the realm of Buster Posey or Joe Mauer comps, and he'd never approach that $194MM figure Spotrac is projecting for a few reasons. The biggest is injury risk/durability for catchers as they just don't age well. Second is Raleigh's bat being above average rather than elite. Third is the looming possibility of robo umps. If robo umps come to fruition, Raleigh's value would be halved. When it comes to Jeffers, he's basically Gary Sanchez. All power - no on base, but league average-ish bat with mediocre defense. Also not going well for Jeffers is how few games he plays, even if that's just Baldelli being Baldelli. Durability concerns are real for Jeffers. I think anything over 3yrs $40MM would be unrealistic for him if he were hitting the open market.

Dobnak's a nice story, but his stuff doesn't play at the MLB level, and we saw that in some small sample sizes last year. He's not on the 40 man roster, but there are a lot of arms at or knocking at the AAA door level. I think the Twins have probably seen everything Dobnak can do at this point. Whatever spot he can go in the minors to develop a better fastball is where they should put him. I don't think he has a way to see game time, but he's a sunk cost.

Spotrac predicts a MV of Iglesias - 1yr at $1.7MM Pillar - 1yr at $1.1MM Hampson - N/A (probably MiLB contract) For Iglesias, his wRC+ 90ish bat was serviceable at SS. Pillar's similar bat profile made him technically playable as a part time 4th outfielder / center fielder. Hampson, though? A career wRC+ 69 hitter has basically kept him as AAA replacement value, accumulating only 1.2 fWAR across 8 years, peaking at 0.6 in his one outlier (still only wRC+ 99) season with Miami in 2023. He's basically a pinch runner. I think the Twins have options as good or better in house than Pillar or Hampson, and with Correa entrenched at SS, Iglesias as well.

Baseballtradevalues doesn't appear to use "catcher framing" in the same way Fangraphs or Baseball Reference (DRS) have chosen to dive full on into it. Catcher framing is where a huge portion of Cal Raleigh's fWAR and bWAR comes from. I do not believe in catcher framing as a statistic catchers have good control over anymore. It's not stable or predictable. It seems to me the "framing" metric appears to be more reliant on the pitching staff and umpire adjustments so you see massive swings in catcher defensive value from year to year. I hate that. Just like OAA or DRS in general have wild adjustments from one year to the next in even medium sample sizes. For example. Cal Raleigh's DRS value over 1200 innings projected. 2021 = -4 or below average 2022 = +18 or elite 2023 = +2 or average 2024 = +17 hey, he's elite again! Cal Raleigh's breakdown for Baseballtradevalues is as follows: AFV = 56.7 (2.4 WAR per year, approx), Salary = $28MM remaining over 3 years. AFV - Salary = 28.7. Jeffers is at AFV 24.9 (average 1.5 WAR per year) I agree, it's certainly not perfect, which is why I stated that in the initial post, but it's a pretty good ballparking tool to correct fan biases about the value of players on the Twins. In Cal Raleigh's situation, I think his value likely depends on how much any given front office believes in his framing value, but I also have a feeling BaseballTradeValues is low on his performance. Ryan Jeffers Arb2 (+13.1) 2024 = 122 G, 64 RBI, .226/.300/.432 .732 OPS, wRC+ 107, OPS+ 103, 1.7 fWAR, 2.1 bWAR Cal Raleigh Arb1 (+28.7) 2024 = 153 G, 100 RBI, .220/.312/.436 .748 OPS, wRC+ 117, OPS+ 119, 4.3 fWAR, 4.6 bWAR Last2 = 298 G 175 RBI, .226/.309/.446 .755 OPS, wRC+ 115, OPS+ 117, 9.7 fWAR, 7.8 bWAR If you compare Jeffers and Raleigh in BaseballTradeValues, I think it's within reason in terms of true projection (lots of catcher injuries?), but probably not in real life since I don't think front office's "expect" injuries from previously healthy players, they just understand the elevated risk.

Then they'll move the team because another location will give them a new stadium. Doesn't matter to me.