bean5302

I think we can all agree, though, thank whatever deity, good fortune star, etc. we didn't get Baez.

Steer has been playing out of position. OAA is literally the worst defensive metric you can find without 2-3 years of consistent play time. It's a wild metric like catcher framing. No, it's not early.

I think the Twins are obsessed with "cutting edge" stuff in general. The sweeper is the most glaring example that comes to mind right now.

I feel like this article was just written a couple weeks ago? This time, we've conveniently left Marcus Semien out of this article. He was a shortstop, but he was asked to slide over to 2B where his defensive numbers say he'd still be a solid shortstop. He has been the best contract handed out. Truth is, Correa wasn't on the radar in 2022, like at all. Boras called Falvey and offered him the deal after everybody else had already signed. Falvey got approval from the Pohlad's and tada! 3 years $105MM with what everybody expected was a 1 year $35MM deal as Correa was going to opt out barring catastrophe. Last year is a different story. Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson, Xander Boegaerts, Carlos Correa were the big 4. The Twins offered 10yrs $285MM out of the gate so they were certainly in play. MLBTR predicted 9yrs $288MM for Correa in November. Ultimately, everybody knows how things played out. Of the shortstops available last year, Correa's final contract with the Twins is looking by far the best, IMHO.

MRI is scheduled. I'm guessing they'll know exactly what they're doing as soon as it comes back. Lewis said he wasn't optimistic.

Trevor Larnach hits a home run after sucking for two months: TD publishes a bunch of articles about how he's turned a corner, LOL.

The sinker fell out of favor with the launch angle revolution. Guys had been increasingly swinging their bats like golf clubs to try and lift balls into the seats. An improperly placed sinker can put itself directly into the "Tiger Uppercut" whereas, say, 10 years ago, the flatter swings designed to hit more line drives and put the ball into play would make weak contact against the pitch. Obviously, putting any pitch in a location the batter isn't likely to put a good swing on it can make the pitch effective, but the sinker just became a dangerous gopher ball machine IMHO. Of course things may be changing again with the elimination of the extreme shift. Everything goes in circles.

If Lewis' groin was so tight he couldn't run, he's probably out till after the All Star Break.

The Twins paid for Manuel Margot to back up Buxton, though. Castro can't make the point moot because Margot is already on the roster.

They've given KC a cost controlled depth starter and a reliever who is pitching extremely well in AAA, plus $4MM. It's still a second roster spot the Twins have to forfeit. The roster spot alone is worth $10MM, easy.

You do not understand how teams value WAR. Let me help you. Michael A. Taylor put up 2 WAR last year (Byron Buxton's career average rate). He got 1 year and $4MM. I get it, though. Taylor was old, right? How about Eduardo Escobar with the Diamondbacks. Escobar was a 2-3 WAR player when he got his extension with them. He got 3 years and $21MM. How about Mark Cahna? Coming off a 3 year campaign where he averaged nearly 3 WAR per season, Cahna got 2yrs at $13MM AAV. Then there is Buxton. A career 2 WAR seasonal player who averaged about the same as Cahna because of injuries. Consistent, every single year, injuries. Having only once qualified in his entire career. 7 years $105MM before he was even a free agent. Teams pay top AAV and/or long contracts only to player with All Star levels of production. They have to be proven, and they have to produce over 3 WAR on average to get the big dollars. Buxton was neither.

Sure. There are 26 roster positions in MLB. Byron Buxton occupies 2 of those roster positions. One for him, and one for the guy you need to back him up in CF. This isn't me being upset with Buxton. It just is what it is. He must have a backup and that takes money and a roster spot. We've seen what happens this year when he doesn't (Margot lost too much speed to cover, but the Twins traded for him to cover CF), and last year when he does (Michael A Taylor) $4.6MM + 2 prospects (a #5 depth starter and what looks like a good reliever). So the Twins are paying an extra $4MM a year for Buxton's backups, plus prospects. So Buxton is basically a 1 roster spot penalty and an extra few million in other players the Twins need to have to back him up. That's a lot more than $15MM / year. Buxton has averaged 2 WAR per season over his career. Teams try to buy WAR at $6MM per win in free agency, but injuries and underperformers drop the cost per win down to about $8MM. Buxton is worth, on average $16MM per year in terms of production himself since his contract was signed (and historically over his entire career). That ignores the truth, though. Teams don't give long contracts to 2 WAR players. They also don't try to buy them at $8MM/WAR. In any case, he has 2 seasons in 10 where he produced 4 wins, and he has never, in his entire career, posted more than 4.5 fWAR in a season (your outlandish $30MM clip figure). Last year, Buxton produced 0.6 fWAR (scrub level). This year, Buxton is a30 and producing at a 3 WARish clip on pace for the second season in his career over 92 games. Buxton's legitimate ceiling is probably 3 WAR at this point. Buxton is in decline. He is not going to get better. He no longer has elite defense. He is not going to get healthier in his 30s than he was in his 20s. The Twins paid dramatically over market rate for a declining Byron Buxton.

Yep, the parallels with Buxton in terms of injuries are a real concern. The difference is Buxton was never going to be an elite bat because he can't get on base and he had tons of strikeouts.

Royce Lewis is a monster. The only legitimate MVP candidate the Twins have seen on their roster since prime Joe Mauer. Lewis' xwOBA would rank 7th in all of MLB. His actual wOBA would rank 5th. Last year, his actual xwOBA would have ranked 4th. Injuries are the only thing stopping Lewis from being a superstar right now.

Blake Snell, Zac Gallen, Robbie Ray, Jack Flaherty, Chris Bassitt.

Agreed. It'd be quite a surprise for the Twins to trade for bats at the deadline. If they did make that kind of move, I'd suspect it'd be a RH power bat which they currently lack. J.D. Martinez would be the most likely target, but I suspect the bidding for him will be pretty high.

If you viewed his contract in a vacuum, sure, but since Buxton cannot be the only starting caliber CF on the team, the Twins need to pay a premium for a starting caliber backup CF, who won't be playing CF, Buxton's true cost is higher.

Steer was considered a solid enough infielder, not a DH, and he's been acceptable in the infield by UZR/150. Cincinatti has played him large in the outfield, where he hasn't played well. CES was bat only, but he looked pretty solid last year. Out this year with wrist surgery. That's two every day 2 WAR regular players with 6 years of team control each. The Twins also kicked one of their pitching prospects Cincinnati's way in the deal with Steve Hajjar, who's been a bust. The Twins paid a pretty big price for a guy who they were hoping would be good with a change of scenery to someplace outside the homer fueled Great American Ballpark. I would have wanted Mahle to undergo a physical before agreeing because of the recent IL stint so the deal probably wouldn't have happened. I agree with the desire to acquire a significant rotation upgrade when needed prior to a playoff run, but I favor aiming higher than mid-back rotation arms. I'll give up more for something which cannot be easily replaced.

I think you're giving Lopez a bit too much credit here. Mediocrity doesn't get you DFA'd like 17 times, haha.

Man! He's got a 5.00 ERA? That's awful! Luzardo's literally broken back is a little more concerning, of course. Lopez's 4.88 ERA is miles better. Thank goodness we dodged that bullet!

No, he turned into a crybaby unable to take responsibility for his performances last year; instead blaming a tightness in his groin when other teams sent all his pitches into the stands. Mystically, Joe Ryan was the same pitcher when he returned from the "injury" that didn't change his velocity, movement or anything else about his pitches. Kirilloff is pulling the same BS this year as an excuse for his poor plate performance, and to avoid a AAA stint.

I didn't even have to read this article, but I suppose I did anyway. No. Byron Buxton is not, was not, and never will be worth his contract. Falvey panicked when no other team in MLB saw Buxton as a superstar worth acquiring for a superstar's price in 2021 as the Twins feverishly shopped him before the trade deadline. Caught with their pants down, an angry Buxton who was the face of the franchise at the time, Falvey made one of the worst decisions as the Twins GM. He dramatically overvalued his player, and handed Buxton a 7 year contract when no other team in baseball would have given him more than 3. The fact other teams were not biting on Buxton is clear evidence on how the rest of the league viewed him. He will never be healthy. Even this year I doubt he'll play more than 100 games (if he gets to that point). Even if he does maintain his current playing pace, he's projecting as a 3 WAR player this year for $15MM on a very long term contract with a full NTC through 2026. That necessitates carrying another full time, MLB starting caliber CF on the roster, and paying that outfielder CF'er money, while not playing them full time. You simply know Buxton will be hurt for 1/2 the year. Buxton is one of the best baseball players on the planet when healthy is just hyperbole. Matt Tolbert was one of the best baseball players on the planet because he was in MLB. In his prime, Buxton was a 5-6 WAR full season (if he remained healthy for 150 G, which will never happen) category, though some analysts and Twins fans thought he was some sort of 10+ WAR guy who "turned the corner" and has "figured it out" after every single 2 week hot streak. To me, he's certainly not a guy you have to worry about potentially bringing home an MVP because there have always been significantly better players than Buxton. He's in decline at this point. Now age 30 with diminishing bat speed and power, a plethora of chronic injuries that have piled up, and having lost a step, Buxton's ceiling is probably substantially lower. Buxton cannot get on base. He doesn't take walks and his batting averages are going to hover in the low 200s range because he's a fly ball hitter with a ton of pop ups and strike outs. His BABIP is 30pts higher than his career rate right now. His xwOBA is 14pts lower than actual. His bat is a declining 20% better than league average type of asset, which is still good, but not great overall. That means a huge portion of his value is playing elite CF, but Buxton is not an elite CF anymore. He ranks 10th in UZR/150 and 15th in OAA this year. Having failed to produce during his prime on a locked-in contract, and having passed the torch of the face of the franchise along to multiple other players, Buxton is just a very good, but unreliable player whose contract is a bit of a burden.

Yeah, 4/27 to current is selective. But, I stated Farmer was "about average." Choose most dates around that range and you'll get something "about average"

Joe Ryan as of 7/1 2022 = 3.00 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 4.56 xFIP (39% fly balls + 16% Popups, 28% GB, 16% LD) 2023 = 3.44 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 3.75 xFIP (38% fly balls + 10% Popups, 34% GB, 18% LD) 2024 = 3.21 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 3.34 xFIP (27% fly balls + 19% Popups, 34% GB, 20% LD) The rest of the season 2022 = 4.00 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 4.17 xFIP 2023 = 6.09 ERA, 5.29 FIP, 3.78 xFIP 2024 = ? Unlike last year, and the year prior, Ryan's xFIP is right in line with his actual results this year suggesting major regression isn't necessarily expected. He's allowing far fewer true fly balls so far this year by exchanging them for more popups, while giving up a few more line drives. Personally, I expected the wheels to start coming off Ryan's season already, but he's been very good no matter how you slice it. Typically, how things have gone is Ryan changes up his pitches, gets by for a couple months, and then scouting reports get out and hitters tee off. Ryan's fastball is about as effective as previous years, but his splitter now at 88mph vs. 83mph last year, has played up a great deal. Ryan now has an offspeed pitch which has been valuable in addition to his fastball, and that seems to be the secret for him so far this year.

Not sarcasm. Waste your resources however you see fit.