bean5302

The Pohlad family has always been focused on the business aspect of baseball. It's not that they do not want to win, it's they won't accept a business losing money. That's just a family thing. Carl Pohlad was immensely successful while cultivating a reputation as a very generous, honorable and charitable person. He did not accept losses from his businesses. That's something which has been instilled into his sons who own the Twins. I will fault the Pohlad's on what I feel is a short-sightedness, and poor business management issues (nepotism, lack of accountability, poor management choices) and a failure to make mistakes up to their customer base this year (TV debacle), but there are precious few major sports owners willing to lose money in terms of net operating income or run a negative cash flow as a practice.

It's a game of cat and mouse. Lefties are pitching him different, and Castro will need to adjust. When Castro adjusts to the new game plan by lefties, they'll look for yet the next game plan trying to find a weakness. That's how scouting and analytics works these days. Castro's sample size has gotten fairly big at this point. In 521 career PA vs. lefties, he owns a .700 OPS and a wRC+ 95. Considering his defensive versatility and value, he's going to continue to play every day.

Falvey's front office has a long history of developing poor fielders. Quality fielding is not something we're going to see coming up from the minors from this front office. Theoretical versatility is their focus name of the game. What's the last good fielder the Twins have developed under Falvey? Go ahead. Take a minute to think about it. Rooker? Larnach? Julien? Polanco? Gordon? Miranda? Martin? Kirilloff? Jeffers? Kepler, Sano and Buxton all reached the majors under Terry Ryan. The Twins ditched their only premier fielding prospect in recent years, Noah Miller, a prospect who looks like a perennial gold glover if his bat can play. Brooks Lee has looked good in ultra small sample sizes, but he's also had a couple costly misplays not to mention Brooks Lee came into the Twins' organization well coached and out of college with great defensive instincts to begin with. Advocating a top tier athlete who plays a premium defensive position be moved to first base seems to border on trolling. If Lewis wants to become an elite 3B, he can. If Lewis wants to become a good SS, he can. He's got the tools. Now he needs decent coaching, effort, and experience.

The Twins got lucky Varland allowed only 3 ER on 8 hits and a walk, including 2HR given his 7.01 FIP. It was a start which didn't bury the Twins, but the lack of offense again is getting old. They're scoring more than 3 runs a game barely 50% of the time back through the Mets series. We need more consistent offensive production. It was a winnable game again today, just like the last two flops against Cleveland.

Steamer projections: Randy Dobnak** - 3.92 ERA, 7.39 K/9, 2.95 BB/9 David Festa - 4.00 ERA, 9.09 K/9, 3.03 BB/9 Zebby Matthews - 4.03 ERA, 7.43 K/9, 1.73 BB/9 Caleb Boushley - 4.26 ERA, 6.47 K/9, 1.81 BB/9 Andrew Morris - 4.47 ERA, 6.59 K/9, 2.53 BB/9 Adam Plutko* - 4.60 ERA, 7.16 K/9, 2.58 BB/9 Rich Hill - 4.64 ERA, 7.31 K/9, 3.17 BB/9 *Plutko is on the 7 day IL with a forearm strain. No word I've seenon how bad it is or expected return. **Other projections are much more pessimistic than Steamer with ERA's from 4.26 just over 5.00 I really don't get why people are so convinced Hill will be even serviceable at the MLB level. Or ready before September for that matter. He'd also have to be better than a number of options in the system already. Projection tools are hardly perfect, but for a seasoned veteran like Rich Hill, they're certainly worth noting, and they're not biased by people's opinions, fond memories or ideology. He's dead last among the pitchers listed above in Steamer projections for ERA. I didn't include Varland since steamer projects him as a reliever.

Did you read that part about performance? Do I need to spell that out for you? It's always always the same with you. Ask for data, *&^(*&^ on the data, ask for more data, *&^*&^& n on the data, create a strawman, over and over and over and over and over. Ignore. Oh, I can't ignore. You're a "Community Leader" What a laugh.

Prospect rank is important. It's important to the teams who have control over the prospect and teams who are looking to acquire talent as well. Prospect rank is a competition in it's own right for teams. Morris is probably knocking at the top 100 door. Soto? I'm not sure about that. Fangraphs had him way down in the Twins' system at 15th or so in their mid year update. Soto wasn't expected to move fast because of how raw he was so him still being in A ball over a year after being drafted isn't terrible. Fangraphs' scouting report indicates the Twins had him working a lot on his changeup rather than looking for best performance so the rough ERA can be overlooked as well. Still, there isn't much room in a top 100 prospect's list, and it'd represent a major leap. Production alone probably doesn't get him there. He's going to need to move up a level and produce IMHO.

Keith Law partnered on an article a couple years ago. https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/2662173/2021/06/21/law-are-high-draft-picks-getting-to-the-majors-faster-than-ever/ If you have a college draftee who hasn’t broken through to the majors or at least merited a call up within 36 months of his draft date, the odds of him becoming even a solid regular are probably pretty low. The article talks about the average time to debut (median) increasing for college players from 786 to 1,058 days (up from 2.2 to 2.9 years), and performance correlates with call up time. Of course, these are top draft picks, but most top prospects are also going to be high round draft picks. Matthews is a top prospect at this point. Expectations have changed. His performance outweighs his draft pedigree so his call up to the majors is "normal" in terms of time frame. The bottom line is if you think Matthews is good, he's getting his shot in a pretty normal time frame at 750ish days (2.1 years) recalling the "median average" is still a little under 3 years.

Oh, back to the topic. Larnach puts the ball in play, and though he's a poor base runner due to his speed, maybe the Twins just value that? Larnach is probably more of a traditional #6 guy

I don't think there's much chance Festa is in AAA this year. Both Paddack and Ryan are likely done for the season and Varland is better suited to the bullpen after the losses of Stewart and even Topa being a long shot. Matthews probably controls his destiny. Even if Paddack is able to return, he'll likely be in the bullpen. If Ryan is able to make his return as well, I'm not sure what will happen. Seems like a pretty long shot. If Matthews is pitching extremely well, you really can't pull him from the rotation. Morris will almost certainly go to AAA in September at the latest.

I don't think it's accurate to say Larnach "is" better than his results. He was better than his already great results for a short period of time, but it feels like he's pretty much been as expected since then. Over his past 20 games back to July 10th, .254/.362/.407 OPS .769 wRC+ 124 seems reasonable. He's definitely improved his value by being more aggressive at the plate in terms of swinging at borderline stuff, and just trying to make contact rather than waiting for what he thinks is the perfect 4 seam fastball to crush. That said, Larnach is being heavily platooned. Even if he played 162 games in a year with how he's been utilized this year, he would not qualify by having 3.1 PA/G.

That'd probably wind up being really ugly. Take a 44 year old guy with a 5-something ERA last year and throw him into the rotation immediately without having pitched a single competitive game in a year. Talk to an elite pitcher like Blake Snell about how simulated games prepare you 100% for MLB action, let alone an 88mph (hopefully 88) veteran looking for a last shot at a championship.

Kirilloff is eligible to come off the 60 day IL in 6 days I think, but given the fact there's been basically no news it seems highly improbable he'll be off the list any time soon, I'll give you that.

The Twins didn't dump much salary, and they didn't get any value in return for the salary they picked up. That's the issue with the trade. As the teams who were a good fit for Polanco dropped off the list like flies, it became apparent Falvey had overplayed his hand. Polanco $10.5MM Desclafani ($4MM) Topa ($1.25MM) Bowen (A+ MiLB) Gonzalez (A+ MiLB) Net savings $5.25MM Bowen and especially Gonzalez are nice on the prospect list, but they were many years away.

The Escobar trade still doesn't look fantastic when you consider net present value. When you trade assets from a team seeking to be immediately competitive, having your acquisitions not help the team for 3-4 years isn't ideal. I think both the Diamondbacks and Twins won the Escobar trade in the end, though. Same thing with the Blue Jays and Twins in the Berrios deal. Martin was the real headliner and he's a utility player at best. It took years for SWR to provide value for what was one of the most coveted starting pitchers on the market with 1.5yrs of control.

Funderburk DFA? He'd be claimed instantaneously. Pre-arb. 2 more option years, 2027 earliest eligibility for arbitration 1. Dobnak could get DFA'd, but the Twins clearly trusted him more than Boushley or Plutko, and right now, the depth in the rotation is thin ice. Dobnak probably wouldn't get claimed at this point so it's likely he'd pass through. Caleb Thielbar is certainly on the short list as well for veteran players. Kirilloff is a potential DFA as he's going to be non-tendered this offseason. Ronny Henriquez, maybe Matt Canterino given the fact he hasn't pitched competitively in years and he's already 26.

Honestly, people are way too worried. It shows how poorly this organization has developed talent by attaching big kid gloves to everybody. If they're ready, they're ready, but this organization has frequently log jammed talent far behind mediocre depth for whatever reason, be it extra team control or needing to polish some very rough ore. I was ready for Matthews to be called up directly out of AA. You do not perform at that level and not have what it takes to be serviceable. I'm sure some fans are thinking back to Berrios, who pitched in more pitcher friendly leagues. Matthews is age 24. It is totally normal for top prospects drafted out of college to make it to MLB in this timeline. 2-3 years is normal. If they're not in MLB by year 3, they're behind schedule, and if they're not in MLB by year 4, they've probably washed out. ERA/FIP/xFIP 2015 AA - 3.08/3.09/2.88 - 9.13 K/9, 2.38 BB/9 2016 AAA - 2.51/2.91/2.89 - 10.10 K/9, 2.91 BB/9 <-- Year Berrios was called up vs. Matthews 2024 AA - 1.95/2.00/2.56 - 10.25 K/9, 0.98 BB/9 2024 AAA - 5.68/4.14/2.96 - 10.89 K/9, 0.47 BB/9 While Matthews' ERA is rough at 5.68 in AAA, his FIP is right in line with the area of what Festa's was, and Matthews owns a 2.96 xFIP. Excellent K rates and elite walk rates with an above average WHIP in a hitter friendly AAA league. Matthews' results are more impressive than Berrios for what it's worth. Though Matthews is also a couple years older than Berrios. I suppose it might be a toss up of maturity vs. expected improvement. Who knows? I don't agree with Matthews having a lack of command. There is utterly no way a pitcher can have 80 grade control while throwing upper 90s, get elite results, but have poor command. There is room for improvement in placement, but to say he doesn't have at least good "command" doesn't make sense to me. High K rate, low BB rate. That combination is incompatible with being unable to throw the ball where you want it or even not having plus command without absolutely filthy stuff. Matthews doesn't have much experience dealing with hitters as polished as AAA/MLB hitters are, but that's where his catcher is going to be critical. No electronic strike zone, and hopefully he gets a decent umpire so he can get a consistent strike zone he can work with. He doesn't have to go out there and throw a perfect game. It'll be great to see him pitch.

The Twins lineup really has laid a couple eggs the last 2 games. Both games were totally winnable. Wasting that effort by SWR really hurts after this loss.

D.C. is much bigger than Baltimore. Way bigger than the Twin Cities metro, too. The Nationals really ate into Baltimore's potential fan base. Even Philadelphia pulls from not too far from Baltimore, which is just 100mi away. The Pirates nip at the Orioles' fanbase to the NW. From an MLB perspective, Baltimore has been a pretty small market. https://www.vividseats.com/blog/most-popular-mlb-teams-by-state-county/map

Tough to say what the Twins could have gotten for Polanco. Falvey has a reputation for waiting out the market instead of being aggressive early. It looked more to me like Falvey overplayed his hand. He's failed to get out from under multiple contracts the Twins weren't expected to keep over the years. The Twins would have been better off declining their option on Polanco. The fact Falvey wasn't aware of Polanco's value or more aware of his payroll situation before they had to choose whether or not to pick up the option was a failure on his part.

Hopefully, the cleanup will address Stewart's shoulder going forward. If there was/is structural damage found, like 90% career over.

Detroit and Chicago asked for Walker Jenkins, Brooks Lee or Emmanuel Rodriguez for Flaherty or Fedde was what was insinuated by Falvey and reported by media. Media also reported the Twins were countering with Keaschall as the headliner for those types of deals. Would Keaschall's UCL injury have prevented him from being coveted by those teams? Ehh... probably not since neither one of them were going to compete this year and Keaschall is expected to be 100% next year. Keaschall was also playing well at the time. https://www.startribune.com/highly-rated-twins-prospect-luke-keaschall-set-to-undergo-season-ending-surgery/600993828 Keaschall hasn't played at 2B/CF since 7/9, just before the All Star Futures Game where he only had a single PH at bat in the 6th. Seems reasonable to conclude the injury was known about at that point, and based on the fact Keaschall was in the futures game with that restriction, that the rest of the league was probably aware Keaschall was dealing with an issue.

Yep. Both teams lost this trade. The Twins got nothing back they needed from moving Polanco and the Mariners got a bad season. Better scenario for both teams? Twins decline Polanco's option and Seattle acquires a better 2B.

What added "mentorship" can Rich Hill add that Caleb Thielbar couldn't/doesn't already provide?

Festa's improved a lot after he stopped trying to be something he isn't (a control pitcher) in his first couple starts. It's improved how his stuff works Stuff+ Fastball 105 (average). 50 grade Slider 120 (plus pitch) 60 grade Changeup 78 (borderline MLB caliber). 35 grade That profile might allow him to stick in the rotation, but comparing him to potential ace-like results pitchers? Both Cease and Glasnow have multiple plus pitches, and neither of them are throwing a pitch as dicey as Festa's changeup, though I do expect Festa's change will at least grade into the 40 range as his opportunities increase. Cease Fastball 124 (plus pitch) 60 grade Slider 132 (plus pitch) 60 grade K. Curve 109 (average) 50 grade Glasnow Fastball 119 (plus pitch) 60 grade Sinker 102 (average) 50 grade Slider 110 (borderline plus) 55 grade Curve 141 (plus plus) 70 grade Festa's been looking good out there in a number of ways recently, including limiting fly balls which reduces the homers, but he's done it pretty unconventionally. By becoming a "line drive" pitcher, which would normally be the worst possible scenario. Still, he's been limiting hard contact over his last couple starts. Have to see what happens as Festa is definitely putting up some weirdo outlier stats right now, haha.