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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Headrick, a difference maker? I mean, it's possible, but there wasn't much to project there IMHO.
  2. bean5302
    We have a lot of depth? It might be reasonable to consider most prospects don't work out. Established, quality MLB rotation arms Lopez Ryan Ober --------------- Probable, experienced, quality MLB rotation arms Paddack Festa Matthews -------------- Improbable, but possibly back end, experienced MLB rotation arms Woods Richardson -------------- Limited high level MiLB experience, high ceiling rotation arms Raya Lewis Beyond that, there's low minors guys like Prielipp, and low ceiling depth guys like Morris, Culpepper, Adams, Dobnak.
  3. bean5302
    Just in case anybody is wondering about "cherry picking" https://www.institutedata.com/us/blog/cherry-picking-in-data-analytics/
  4. bean5302
    Kinda under the impression Pokemon Go has dwindled down, hasn't it?
  5. bean5302
    Canterino needs to prove he can throw strikes. He'll be doing that at AAA to start the season, provided he can make it through Spring Training without getting hurt, which seems to be unlikely based on his history. Provided Canterino can get 20 or so appearances in relief and he's able to get his K rate over 25% with a walk rate 3x lower than his K rate, the Twins will find a place in the bullpen for him. Having a 6 BB/9 in AA 3 years ago doesn't fill me with confidence more polished guys will chase his stuff if it's out of the zone.
  6. bean5302
    When I looked at Julien's swing percentages O-Swing, Z-Swing, overall, and contact rates, I didn't see a huge change. Last year he was swinging more, but when he swung away, he was making less contact. Maybe there was something to his approach change, but I'm a little skeptical. Hopefully, Julien can make whatever adjustments he needs to be able to make better contact, especially on pitches he hasn't been able to handle well previously.
  7. bean5302
    Sorry, but your "Inngs" column is BS. It rounds up to integers. Here is the real data/screenshot which has a column called "IP" which shows actual innings pitched. Do you see those 6.0+ inning starts all in a row? Nope. 6.0, 5.1, 5.2, 6.0.
  8. bean5302
    Did I say "AVERAGED" 6 innings? No. Stop putting words in my mouth. All you have to do is look at the game logs. You'll find MOST pitchers go 6+ innings in 50% of their starts. i.e. average 5.2 innings, 75% of starts at 6.0+ IP 6.0 IP 6.0 IP 6.0 IP 5.0 IP
  9. bean5302
    2017 Top High Minors Pitching Prospects #2 Gonsalves (AAA) #4 Romero (AA) #5 Tyler Jay (AAA) #6 Kohl Stewart (AAA) #8 Adalberto Mejia (MLB) #9 Felix Jorge (AAA) Guys below them in the top org rankings you might recognize Chargois, Rortvedt, Wade, Jr., Garver, Miranda, Arraez, Jax It's great we undoubtedly have a boatload of guaranteed future Cy Youngs, but it'd be even better if they had peripherals which suggested they were going to be elite.
  10. bean5302
    SWR didn't have a single instance of back to back outings with 6+ innings pitching for the Twins last year. I'm don't care about his MiLB results much. 4/13 = 6.0 IP 5/6 = 6.0 IP (3 starts later) 6/8 = 6.1 IP (6 starts later) 6/20 = 6.0 IP (2 starts later) 7/7 = 6.0 IP (3 starts later) 7/23 = 6.0 IP (2 starts later) 8/10 = 7.0 IP (3 starts later) Last 8 starts never exceeded 5.0 innings The average MLB starter pitches 6+ innings most of the time, and the very worst do it 25% of the time. SWR's stuff just wasn't good enough to pitch efficiently last year and while he had a few 6 inning starts, he did it rarely. In fact, SWR managed 6+ innings just 25% of the time putting him among the worst SP's in all of MLB with 20+ starts on the year. Some of that has to do with Baldelli and his infamously quick hook, but more has to do with the fact SWR has to throw a lot of pitches because he needs to place them more perfectly to have success than guys with better stuff.
  11. bean5302
    The Twins have had shortages of quality production from their outfielders in recent years so there was no need to move Larnach to 1B. The Twins pushed Kirilloff to 1B because he didn't have a good arm or good defensive instincts while Larnach has great defensive instincts. Unfortunately, Larnach lacks the speed to be a plus defender, and he can merely hold his own in left. Who would fans rather play 1B and LF between Larnach, Miranda, France or Julien? Even with his limits, I'd choose Larnach every day in LF, and that's probably why the Twins haven't put him at 1B much. There are plenty of legitimate options at 1B already.
  12. bean5302
    The Twins jam packed roster and position fights remind me of a time many, many years ago. My dad was over at his best friend's shop. My dad was looking for a snowmobile clutch for a vintage sled. After seeing a few all blown apart, he spotted the model he needed on the floor in a corner. He went to go grab it and his buddy said, "oh yeah! that's a good one!" as my dad picked it up and rust and debris was falling out of it...
  13. bean5302
    Players were always evaluated based on metrics. The metrics have changed. Please point me to the DrGast metrics I can use to evaluate Christian Vazquez.
  14. bean5302
    Twins opening day rotation games started 2024 = 118 (Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack, Varland) 2023 = 118 (Gray, Lopez, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda) 2022 = 116 (Gray, Ryan, Ober, Bundy, Archer) *Paddack was the 6th man for the rotation. 2021 = 112 (Maeda, Berrios, Pineda, Happ, Shoemaker) The Twins have needed at least 44 starts to be made by guys who were not part of the opening day rotation for the last 4 straight years. There are going to be guys who get hurt. There are likely guys who will lose their spots in the rotation or be traded before opening day or during the season.
  15. bean5302
    I am not bullish on SWR remaining in the rotation long term. His conditioning appears to have been an issue last year and once the scouting reports got out, he wasn't all that effective. His stuff didn't grade well, either. Probably a better option out of the bullpen long term, IMHO.
  16. bean5302
    I think they need to evaluate him to determine whether or not his stuff is worth keeping. If his stuff isn't good enough to be a starter right now, moving him to the bullpen for a long relief or low leverage situation is fine. There's no reason to give up more value for him than the team needs to give up.
  17. bean5302
    Do you have a DGastWAR set of metrics you could point me to?
  18. bean5302
    Vazquez caught games because he was making $10MM per year, Baldelli likes to rest his players on a regular basis, catcher is a demanding physical position and Jeffers has missed time due to injuries. Vazquez provided -0.2 to +0.8 WAR last year, depending on your favorite mainstream WAR method and how much value you place in "catcher framing." Vazquez is not a plus defensive catcher by any traditional metric, and last year he produced his highest framing value that he's had since 2019 (he's been mostly neutral-ish recently). His sole premium defensive "skill" is related to catcher framing. A metric which is not repeatable and is not reflected in actual results on the field for Twins pitchers when comparing Jeffers and Vazquez. In regard to Gasper, I've no idea how good he is. I'm glad to know you're an seasoned expert on his skill set despite having likely never seen him catch a single ball.
  19. bean5302
    Yeah, I'm not so sure his stuff will play as well as people think. He's got very little experience above the low minors and his walk rate at AA was rough. He'll have to locate his pitches to have success, but it'd be great to see how his stuff works at the high minors level at least!
  20. bean5302
    Vazquez doesn't really add value. He's a safety net, and I hope the Twins trade him before the season starts because that will mean either Cartaya or Gasper has wowed management. I'm not low on Cartaya at the moment. His poor performance at the plate in 2023 came after a promotion to AA, and in 2024 after a promotion to AAA. Both were accompanied by low BABIP possibly due to a lot of popups or poor contact, but his first half of 2023 and 2024 were both highly productive. Might be slow to adapt, and he might have a ceiling at the plate, but if he's a solid defensive catcher, he doesn't need to rake. Love the fact he threw out a baserunner trying to steal 2nd the other day. Gapser is a total unknown at catcher. Doesn't seem like the Yankees or Red Sox really thought much of his catching skills, but Gasper was a catcher when he was drafted and remained a 1/2 time catcher throughout the minors. Mitch Garver was considered a butcher at the position until he got coached up. Perhaps Gasper can make the same strides defensively with a little help? His bat may or may not play. He'll have to swing the ball at the MLB level to have a chance. When it comes to Camargo, he had a similar line at AAA to Cartaya last year, but it was Camargo's 2nd go 'round in AAA and he doesn't have the defensive reputation. Improving on both sides of the ball will be difficult.
  21. bean5302
    Pitcher is #1. Catcher is #2 :p
  22. bean5302
    Guys are just getting tooled up at this point so it's hard to take much away from results. Spring training for pitchers is about getting a feel for their stuff and working on improving pitch movement and feel. For hitters, it more about getting familiar with any adjustments they've made and some experience in a game day setting. Nice to see Canterino was even throwing. It'll be a huge accomplishment for him if he can remain healthy this Spring. I'm also glad to see Wallner showing power early. He was ice cold last spring and it carried into the start of the regular season.
  23. bean5302
    Canterino. 1.0 IP, 25 pitches (12 strikes), 3 walks, 2 wild pitches. 1 strike out. Got out of a jam when Cartaya threw out a guy trying to steal 2nd base, and ended the inning with a fly out.
  24. bean5302
    Not sure how to give myself a WAR point. I've attended 70+ games over the past 3 years where I was a season ticket holder each year including as a Club Level member last year. I do not listen on the radio or on TV, but I do watch on MLB replay (complete games) most games. I purchase a few pieces of merch every year. My average game day food/beverage purchases are significant. I visit a Twins fan site every day and I comment most days. I cannot stand podcasts. 15 minutes of relevant content, 45 minutes of guys hanging out, sponsor placement, bad music and rambling. It's been a couple years, but I've seen the Twins play in Denver, San Francisco, Oakland, Seattle, Baltimore, Boston and Anaheim. I've probably been like a 4 WAR fan?
  25. bean5302
    Ben Revere is my vote.
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