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bean5302

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Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    It seems like Sim has lost his mechanics. While his fastball hit 92-93mph at times during the game, in the 5th inning, it had dropped off to as low as 89mph, and it was routinely bouncing back and forth from 90 to 93. Feels less like general fatigue and more like his old mechanical issues rearing up. Based on that, it does seem like Baldelli was well advised to pull him... but if Sim is needing to be pulled so early, why isn't Cole Irvin starting? Irvin's splits are better as a starter and he can certainly give the Twins 4 innings. Baldelli was definitely well advised to put one of the worst base runners on the team in as the ghost runner, though. Not sure what spreadsheet suggested that.
  2. bean5302
    Are you suggesting a Stock Index Portfolio has a crawl out provision?
  3. bean5302
    The payroll argument really doesn't float with me out of the gate, but it sure does at the trade deadline. The average MLB salary is about $4.5MM The average MLB position player and starter production is 1.7 WAR The average production costs $2.6MM/WAR The average free agent production is about $7MM/WAR right now. The Twins had several players they brought in or were well advised to trade to clear space. Kyle Farmer 0.8 WAR at $6.3MM Max Kepler 0.9 WAR at $10MM Carlos Santana 2.8 WAR at $5.3MM Manuel Margot -0.2 WAR at $4.0MM Justin Topa 0.0 WAR at $1.3MM Anthony Desclafani 0.0 WAR at $4.00MM Josh Staumont 0.2 WAR at $1MM The Twins got 1.5 WAR for $25.6MM from players they kept or traded to acquire to start the season The Twins got 3.0 WAR for $6.3MM from free agents thanks to the Santana signing, though Jose Miranda would likely have been just as productive as Santana at 1B. With $32MM freed up, could they have maybe done a bit better? They didn't have a legitimate CF backup. They didn't get that RH power bat. They didn't get a front line starter.
  4. bean5302
    The Royals are going to be very tough for the next 2-3 years at least. That owner will reinvest into the franchise when their window is open, especially when he's looking to get a new stadium built right now. Perez $22MM Lugo $15MM Witt, Jr. $7.7MM Renfroe $7.5MM Stratton $4.5MM $55MM on the books for next year aside from Arb and pre-arb guys. I expect the Royals to stretch payroll to at least $130-140MM. They're going to be able to get whomever they want in free agency. In regard to why people aren't talking about the Royals? As of 7/31 = .550, WC3, Playoff Odds 58.9% As of 8/15 = .545, WC3, Playoff Odds 56.8% As of 8/31 = .547, WC2, Playoff Odds 80.2% As of 9/18 = .536, WC2, Playoff Odds 89.3% Twins As of 7/31 = .551, WC2, Playoff Odds 80.7% As of 8/15 = .562, WC2, Playoff Odds 90.7% As of 8/31 = .541, WC3, Playoff Odds 86.8% As of 9/18 = .526, WC3, Playoff Odds 72.2% The Twins are trending down while the Royals are trending up because they played much better during a rough schedule. The Royals since 7/31 have played against: Tigers, Red Sox, Cardinals, Twins, Reds, Dodgers, Phillies, Guardians, Twins, Yankees, Pirates, Tigers. That's 10 of 12 series' against teams which are currently .500 or better.
  5. bean5302
    I don't think anybody answered you on this. The Twins claimed Cole Irvin off waivers from Baltimore, who had DFA'd him because he was out of options and they had better pitching options. In order to make room for Irvin on the 40 man, the Twins DFA'd Randy Dobnak. In order to make room for Irvin on the 26 man, the Twins optioned Jorge Alcala.
  6. bean5302
    You are not going to find any semblance of financial literacy among the general fanbase here or the public in the United States. I get your frustration, but most people can't even file a 1040EZ on their own.
  7. bean5302
    I really like a good burger. I don't want to eat burgers 3 meals a day 365 days a year. For a lot of people, Baseball is tuna casserole right now. Eating more of it won't make people like it more.
  8. bean5302
    Options cannot be burned anymore. Not enough time. Same with team control, it won't impact his years of service time. If the Twins are worried about 10 days of service time or a 40 man roster spot for next year, LOL... well, maybe the front office is really that incompetent.
  9. bean5302
    Lopez gives the Twins a chance to win a series on his own? If the Twins make the playoffs (I don't think they will), they'll be playing Houston in the Wildcard round and every single starter matchup against them puts the Twins starter as an underdog, including starting Lopez against Valdez. Lets take a look since August 1st. Starts with 5.0 IP+, ERA under 4.00 (we'll call it QS2) Lopez - 1.92 ERA*, 2.94 FIP, 3.50 xFIP, 75% QS2 Ober - 4.02 ERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.95 xFIP, 67% QS2 Festa - 4.04 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 3.39 xFIP, 50% QS2 SWR - 4.91 ERA, 4.73 FIP, 5.22 xFIP, 38% QS2 Valdez - 1.33 ERA, 2.43 FIP, 2.68 xFIP, 88% QS2 Brown - 2.25 ERA, 2.92 FIP, 3.37 xFIP, 88% QS2 Kikuchi - 3.19 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 2.79 xFIP, 75% QS2 *Lopez's also had a 4 "unearned" run performance in the mix helping his ERA/QS2 stats. The Astros starters are way better than what the Twins can counter with. The Astros' defense is also way less likely to allow a bunch of unearned runs to spoil an otherwise great start. On top of that, the Astros' hitters have been much better and much more consistent than Minnesota's lineup. Lopez has has great results in the 2nd half, but he hasn't been the best starter in MLB or anything. Many playoff teams have an ace which will put Lopez as an underdog starter head to head.
  10. bean5302
    The inevitable roster shakeup coming this offseason will likely determine Eeles' role next year. He's clearly ready for a shot, but the Twins' front office is paralyzed by desperation to not miss out on the playoffs right now so they're not calling him up and giving him playing time I don't think.
  11. bean5302
    It's just regression. Farmer's xwOBA is still .307 vs. actual .299. It's a little hot streak which he was due to have, but it's obviously not sustainable. Farmer is 50/50 on a MLB contract next year IMHO.
  12. bean5302
    I don't even understand what's being discussed in this thread about Alcala being demoted at this point. Wallner, prospect development in general, college draft picks, "leetspeak" references. Is Alcala better than one or more of the 9 bullpen options we have? A bullpen which apparently includes a primary starter, who has better splits starting than in relief, who is now apparently a reincarnated example of the once extinct LOOGY.
  13. bean5302
    Not from my understanding, though MLB hasn't exactly been super clear publicly. Stashing 30+ year old veteran players you wouldn't be able to keep because of roster crunches doesn't have anything to do with prospect development. Using it for players who are developing a skill which is not yet ready for competitive play, but when the organization wants those players to be able to practice with their current team is how I've assumed it is intended to be used. Or if a player needs to limit their innings. Scenarios which teams would be tempted to use a Phantom IL designation. i.e. Player A is in Wichita, they're adding a curveball to their arsenal, but it's not ready for live action. The team wants the player to focus on developing that curveball with their current team mates practicing with the AA team, not in the Ft. Myers CPX league.
  14. bean5302
    I'm not sure we'll get a rule, but I also don't think it's going to increase injury. MLB has clearly singled in on a desire to see starters be a bigger factor in baseball, and if we get a rule (pretty good chance) I do think it'll be a rule with a lot of exceptions. 6 innings minimum Exception at 100 pitches Exception for pitchers allowing more than 3ER. Exception for injuries. Exception for first or second start after return from IL. Something like that is probably what's going to happen. In the end, most pitchers aren't going to see any real change.
  15. bean5302
    No. He'll be 39 and is having his best season in 5 years. He'll probably end the year with a wRC+ around 115 this year which was far beyond all reasonable projections. Expecting a WAR of 0-1 next year would be reasonable. From a performance standpoint, I'd certainly bet on Jose Miranda will be the better player at 1B. Beyond that, the Twins are expected to be in a straight up payroll crisis this offseason, and I think Santana will likely secure another $5-8MM single year contract. There's no money for the current roster, let alone Santana.
  16. bean5302
    Honestly, there's probably not much the Twins front office can do to improve attendance in the short term without canning St. Peter or changing his role. A new VP of marketing needs to be installed. Somebody who understands how to lead. The TV deal is a major issue, but even bigger is the lack of season ticket holders. The Twins desperately need some... and to actually provide a value for them.
  17. bean5302
    Have you gotten the surveys asking you if you'd pay for that? It's an example of how poorly run the Twins' front office really is. The surveys are not particularly valuable because they're asking people if they'd pay a specific amount for a non-existent service. You never put much stock in asking the general public to speculate on a product. It's product development 101. You want the president and CEO to have a vision, to understand the value of their product, to lead a company, not to let the general public lead product development. Dave St. Peter is not the guy.
  18. bean5302
    Options do not really apply here. You need to spend 20 days on an optional assignment. There are not 20 days left in the regular season. The only way an "option" could be burned right now is if: A) Player had already been optioned 1 time and 1 time only this year B) AND the player's optional assignment had lasted only 10-19 days total. If the Twins are, say, trying to protect Zebby Matthews from burning an option, it would be an incompetent decision because there's not enough time for him to burn that option anyway.
  19. bean5302
    I can't say for 100% certain since MLB's rules aren't always clear or comprehensive online. The IL calendar days appear to matter into the postseason for eligibility so it would make sense option rules would do the same. https://www.mlb.com/glossary/transactions/postseason-roster-rules-eligibility
  20. bean5302
    Plutko and Harris to the development list? MLB should follow it with Falvey and Levine to the "suspended list"
  21. bean5302
    Or a guy who wasn't effective when he was pitching? The front office sure does seem to have their favorites.
  22. bean5302
    This move makes no sense to me on the surface. The Twins have optioned Alcala in peculiar decisions earlier this year as well. I suppose Minnesota has control over him, but it wouldn't surprise me for him to ask to be traded at this point as the organization's moves feel almost abusive. Alcala will be available for recall on 10/2, which will be after game 1 of the playoffs. Will he be added to the playoff roster despite not being available for the first game of potentially a 2 game series?
  23. bean5302
    Starters are generally expected to pitch 90-100ish pitches, but pitchers who have rough innings throw more pitches in those rough innings. The bullpen is not good. Baldelli is pulling these 3 pitchers early at 60-70 pitches in close games where they haven't allowed many runs. They are not given the opportunity to work through trouble for better or worse. In general, you should expect about 15 pitches per inning. Festa was a little inefficient, but he's not an efficient pitcher in general. Sim had one really tough inning and was racking up the pitches again in the 4th. Matthews had a terrible first inning, but was doing well in terms of efficiency after that. Festa (19), (12), (17), (18) yanked 3.2 IP, score 0-2 SWR (19), (9), (28), (13) yanked 3.0 IP, score 1-0 Matthews (28), (16), (8), (9), yanked 3.1 IP, score 1-2 Either they're starters or they're not. The Twins' move today of claiming Irvin today seems to say the Twins don't think at least one of these guys is rotation worthy right now. You've seemingly built an invincible defense for Baldelli. He is not to be questioned because no matter the decision he makes, they will all lead to the same outcome. I don't know how many people would hold Baldelli accountable for his pitcher not getting through 4 innings without getting knocked around, especially given the weak bullpen, but I'm not one of them.
  24. bean5302
    My expectation is one of the starters is going to be optioned to AAA. Baldelli clearly has no faith or leash for SWR, Festa or Matthews, but I'd think Matthews gets the short end of the stick here with the blister issue and his struggles.
  25. bean5302
    Sort of. Over the last 3 years, Target Field has a HR factor of 105 for RHB and 104 for LHB. I'm not sure why the splits aren't higher in favor of RHB considering the tall right field wall, but thems the numbers.
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