Jump to content
Joe Ryan versus the Rangers, join the conversation! ×
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

bean5302

Verified Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    6,715

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    35

 Content Type 

Profiles

News

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospects Ranking

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

Minnesota Twins Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits

Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Pick Tracker

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by bean5302

  1. bean5302
    Lopez is a low end #2, upper end #3 caliber pitcher on the books for $22MM per year. He's making about the kind of AAV he'd make in free agency right now, just doesn't have the length. I don't know how the Twins plan to construct their roster for next year, but Lopez is low hanging fruit in terms of payroll capacity.
  2. bean5302
    I expect Kirilloff will be non-tendered. I saw a comment about how he only saves $1MM over a league minimum guy, and that's probably true, but it saves $1.7MM off a AAA 40 man roster spot guy (which is what Kirilloff is). When the Twins are already in a serious payroll crunch, $1.5MM+ is nothing to sneeze at. Kirilloff isn't good enough or healthy enough to warrant an MLB contract. He'll be signing somewhere on a MiLB deal... probably without an opt out. It would not surprise me to see the Twins avoid arbitration to pick up Tonkin on a 1 year contract. While Tonkin got DFA'd several times last year, there was no hesitation for teams to pick him back up and he pitched nearly 80 innings last year with very respectable numbers 3.63 ERA, 3.44 FIP on the back of a 9.64 K/9 (25%) and 3.40 BB/9 (8.2%).
  3. bean5302
    You're about to take a 1,000 mile road trip, your car is missing all its wheels, and you have no expendable savings. Your point appears to be you're in good shape because wheels are easy to find? I still think it's a problem...
  4. bean5302
    I'm not as much of a fan of the missing the playoffs direction. Zebby Matthews was arguably the best pitcher in all of MiLB last year, soared into basically the top 50 MLB prospect range and then was destroyed at the MLB level. Winning World Series' > Winning prospect rankings.
  5. bean5302
    Canterino is at the razors edge of career over right now. Highly likely to be DFA'd off the 40 man, and now entering his age 27 season, the chances he makes a top 100 list is zero. If Canterino manages to make it off the injured list (big if), he'll undoubtedly be a bullpen arm for the Twins as he only has a single option left. Prielipp is a little questionable at this point as he'll be taking the ball as a 24 year old prospect in 2025. Still, Prielipp won't be eligible for Rule 5 until next December so he still has some legit prospect status. I'd expect him to start the year off in AA, and if he absolutely dominates, he could find himself on a mid year top 100 list.
  6. bean5302
    The Twins would probably be using Yunior Severino as their DH as it currently stands. Maybe you're comfortable with that, but I find that to be one of the biggest, if not the biggest, outright hole in the roster at the moment. Absolutely no way Goldschmidt would become our DH based on the other issues, though. That was just a note of what a terrible situation the Twins are in regarding the spot.
  7. bean5302
    I'd be utterly stunned if the White Sox' payroll wasn't under $80MM next year. They've only got $32MM on the books at the moment after declining options for Stassi and Moncada. Then another $9MM in arbitration after they non-tender Sheets and Vaughn. If the White Sox go full dive, that's about $55MM total. It wouldn't surprise me for the White Sox to snap up a few of the short term veteran or upside contracts to try and fill the team out a little bit just to try and get some trade bait at the deadline. Considering how poor Luis Robert, Jr. played last year, I think the White Sox are going to hang on to him and hope they can flip him at the deadline if he rebounds (and is actually not injured).
  8. bean5302
    Not sure why there's such a strong debate on how great Goldschmidt is going to be since he's going to cost more than the Twins will pay. Goldschmidt has run an xwOBA extremely similar to his actual wOBA across his career and his xwOBA was .333 last year, which is 23pts higher than his actual numbers. Goldy also finished the season strong with a .271/.319/.480 wRC+ 120 2nd half and he had solid exit velocity (top 8% in hard hit rate) and barrel rates across the season. All things considered, Goldy was probably a wRC+ 120ish hitter last year without luck issues, and there's good reason to believe he'll be well above average at the plate. Of course; doesn't matter since the Twins are not going to be in the running at Goldschmidt's price tag. I also don't think Goldschmidt would be remotely interested in coming to the Baldelli Broken Macro show where he'd have the crap platooned out of him and only get 400 PA max because he's not a switch hitter, and everybody knows platooning is a concrete guarantee for success.... ahem. Finally, like @DJL44 is saying, I'm not sure he'll be more valuable overall than Miranda at 1B (though we have no DH so there's that issue, too, LOL)
  9. bean5302
    By my estimates, the Twins have about -1MM in payroll capacity this coming year. The Twins outbidding the market for Goldschmidt seems like a pipe dream to me. Considering the recent performance for the two players, I'd be awfully surprised to see Goldschmidt under $10MM, and I'd also be surprised if the Cardinals didn't try to bring him back at a figure like that. a38 (2024) Carlos Santana bWAR 3.0*, (0.1), 1.1, 2.7 fWAR 2.1*, (0.8), 0.9, 1.5 *Multiplied by 2.7 to adjust for season length. a37 (2025) Paul Goldschmidt bWAR 6.0, 7.7, 3.4, 1.3 fWAR 4.8, 6.8, 3.4, 1.1
  10. bean5302
    Let's model it. BaseballTradeValues.com has a value from Dec 2022 for Jhoan Duran which I've included below. There are no recent Duran trade proposals and I don't pay for a subscription so we're going to have the hash some estimated value out by hand. Baseballtradevalues projects salary and pretty close to expected WAR x 8 or AFV. They then subtract future salary from the AFV to determine surplus value (trade value). We'll use the future salary generated by https://blogs.fangraphs.com/an-arbitration-compensation-update/ the method described in Fangraphs' table for relief pitcher to determine salary, and I'll project the year's fWAR forward. Dec 2022 Duran value = 37.0 (29.6 to 44.4)<--- this is where you trade Duran for a potential "haul" Oct 2023 Duran value =21.8 (17.4 to 26.2) Now 2024 Duran value =15.2 (12.1 to 18.2) 2023 calc 1.1 WAR * 4 = 4.4 * 8 = 35.2 AFV - (0.8MM + 2.1MM + 4.4MM + 6.1MM) = 13.4MM 2024 calc 1.2 WAR * 3 = 3.6 * 8 = 28.8 AFV - (2.1 + 4.8MM + 6.7MM) = 13.6MM Duran was probably worth "more" in a trade at the end of last year, but not really worth mentioning in the grand scheme of things. Probably an org #4/6 vs. an org #6/8 or something like that. If you wanted a top prospect or a big haul, Duran needed to be moved after 2022.
  11. bean5302
    Why perform this comparison exercise if you're not going to follow the format of the original? The Twins have 31.2 bWAR this year, yet only 26.4 are in your image which is a loss of about 16% of data. Also, the method you used to supercharge the credit the front office gets for developing players doesn't appear to be used in the original design so the models aren't comparable. https://www.mlb.com/news/how-the-2024-mlb-playoff-teams-were-built Using 85% of the Twins value all on their own with a unique formula is sorta neat, but not relevant to any discussion of the team.
  12. bean5302
    Nobody is that bad. No group of players are that bad. Their record was literally worse than you'd expect a complete AAA team to have at the MLB level (45-117). The White Sox need a mental gut-check and reverse that atmosphere, but I don't think that's coming after their horrible owner went full on cronyism in his GM promotion of Chris Getz. That organization needed to totally, utterly, completely clean house. Fire everybody. Burn it to the ground. It was obvious to everybody there was nothing to save. I honestly feel bad for White Sox fans. They're going to be absolutely terrible for a couple years.
  13. bean5302
    Canterino was added to the 40 man in 2022 to as he was going to be eligible for the Rule 5. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Twins DFA him and expose him to Rule 5 this year. A claiming team needs to keep a Rule 5 pick on the 26 man all year, and Canterino is entering his age 27 season with zero experience above AA. As @DJL44 pointed out, he's never pitched more than 37 innings in a professional season, and he was drafted in 2019. In fact, he's only even got one option left. Canterino's shiny 1.83 ERA and 3.15 FIP in AA way back in 2022 came with an absolutely terrible 5.77 BB/9 (15.3%) so there's plenty of reason to wonder whether or not Canterino's stuff would even play at a higher level like AAA or MLB where hitters will force him to throw strikes. Basically, even if it wasn't for the shoulder injury which wiped out Canterino's entire 2024 after the elbow injury which wiped out his entire 2023 and most of his 2022... and most of his 2021, it's tough to say whether or not Canterino has the arsenal necessary to succeed at a big league level.
  14. bean5302
    The Twins have no rights to alter the relocation clause. It'd be like saying part of the negotiation was the guarantee of good weather for every Twins home game. Beyond that, MLB owners wouldn't approve the sale or the move if there was a relocation involved. Your scenario isn't realistic for a number of reasons, even with a strong dose of anti-billionaire cynicism.
  15. bean5302
    Duran has very low trade value after this year? 2023 = 3.21 FIP, 81.4% SV, 1.1 fWAR 2024 = 2.85 FIP, 91.3% SV, 1.2 fWAR There are some indications Duran wasn't as dominant this year as last, but his FIP and save rate were both quite a bit better than last year. His average velocity was right in line with 2022 as well. I'd imagine Duran's value is probably just about the same as it was.
  16. bean5302
    If we use Stuff+ to isolate the pitches themselves rather than their location or sequencing or the handedness of the opposing batters. Narrowing it to pitches used more than 5% of the time. Worst pitches by the starters: 4 Seam Fastball = SWR 71 2 Seamer/Sinker = Louie Varland 94 Cutter = Bailey Ober 84 Splitter = Joe Ryan 101** Slider = Chris Paddack 71 Curve = Pablo Lopez 92 Changeup = Chris Paddack 72 Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland 115*, ** Worst pitches by the relievers 30+ IP: 4 Seam Fastball = Steven Okert 71 2 Seamer/Sinker = Cole Sands 76 Cutter = Kody Funderburk 92 Splitter = Cole Sands 111 Slider = Steven Okert 116 Curve = Cole Sands 102 Changeup = Steven Okert 58 Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland 115*, ** *Don't have breakdowns between as starter and as reliever. **Only pitcher who throws the pitch.
  17. bean5302
    If we use Stuff+ to isolate the pitches themselves rather than location or sequencing Best pitches by the starters: 4 Seam Fastball = David Festa 107 2 Seamer/Sinker = Joe Ryan 110 Cutter = Zebby Matthews 96 Splitter = Joe Ryan 101 Slider = Joe Ryan 126 Curve = Zebby Matthews 107 Changeup = Bailey Ober 116 Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland* 115 Best pitches by the relievers 30+ IP: 4 Seam Fastball = Jhoan Duran 121 2 Seamer/Sinker = Jorge Alcala 119 Cutter = Cole Sands 96 Splitter = Jhoan Duran 146 Slider = Griffin Jax 170 Curve = Griffin Jax 151 Changeup = Jorge Alcala 116 Knuckle Curve = Louie Varland* 115 *Don't have breakdowns between as starter and as reliever.
  18. bean5302
    The Twins lease at Target Field doesn't expire until 2040, and it explicitly forbids the Twins from relocating. They're not moving until at least very close to 2040, if they would be allowed to break the lease at all (which they weren't with just one year left at the Metrodome).
  19. bean5302
    Varland doesn't have any truly great pitches, but he's got some stuff which is above average, and those pitches have played up out of the 'pen. It's tough to say how he'll fare. I don't think Varland is going to be the next Griffin Jax or Ryan Pressley, both of whom had great sliders to begin with. My hope for Varland would be mid 3s out of the 'pen as all of his average-ish stuff plays up a little bit with an extra 1-2mph behind it. Even though Varland has a much higher K rate out of the 'pen, he still gives up a ton of very loud contact.
  20. bean5302
    I'm not sure what you're hearing? https://www.12news.com/article/sports/mlb/diamondbacks/how-to-watch-arizona-diamondbacks-games-tv-and-streaming-2024-season/75-c5b07291-9bd7-4d7c-b308-13719ef2d0b7 The Diamondbacks are an example of how this has worked. Don't have/want cable? Stream the games for $19.99/mo. You do have and want cable? Watch the games as part of your cable package (just like it was in previous years for the Twins).
  21. bean5302
    The realistic price tag is easier when the owners are in a rush to sell like the Fred Wilpon essentially being forced to sell the Mets due to liquidity issues, and Peter Angelos starting to heavily market the Orioles shortly before his death. There is no real "need" for the Pohlad family to sell so far as I know. That would place them more into the Arte Moreno and Lerner family category. Still, the Pohlad's are probably more committed to a potential sale. The Lerner family was divided on selling the Nationals so it makes sense the necessary offer would have needed to be higher to meet their requirements, like a team trading away a highly valued contributor. Arte Moreno is one of the owners who gets deep into the front office side of things meddling around so I think he's probably more attached to the Angels, which also probably inflated any potential selling price. I don't get the feeling there are those conflicts in the Pohlad family.
  22. bean5302
    1) Championship Upside - Nobody cares. 2) Respected Front Office - Nobody cares. 3) Target Field Premier Destination - This is a negative. 4) Growth Opportunity - This one is an important plus. 5) Sports Support - This one is a plus. 6) Owning a sports franchise is prestigious. - This is a huge plus. Buyers are going to be looking for teams which are cheap, and nearing the end of their lease. Owners of stadiums usually make a killing on real estate around the stadium. The new stadium sparks off development in the area, and the franchise owner knows ahead of time where the stadium is likely to be built so the franchise owner front-runs the market, purchases undesirable properties near the new venue only to turn a massive profit after the new stadium is built and the property then becomes desirable. Wilf already bought the properties around the old Metrodome site, and once that happened, the stadium location was essentially locked into place. A potential buyer is going to want a return on investment, but they're going to have to do it with putting fans into the seats, and national exposure with a purchase of the Twins. That's way harder than buying a team that needs a new stadium where you can just generate wealth through forcing a local government to build a new stadium to spark off a new neighborhood filled with huge value growth.
  23. bean5302
    Carl Pohlad would have created more "generational wealth" putting the $44M (not $144MM) into a Stock Index Portfolio than by owning the Twins in terms of their market value as reported by Forbes this year. In fact, investing $44MM into a Stock Index fund would now be worth over $3B today.
  24. bean5302
    I don't know Carl Pohlad. In fact, I don't know any of the Pohlad family, and I don't care about them any more than another random person on the street. I do know Carl Pohlad received 3 purple hearts, 2 bronze stars and an oak leaf cluster in WWII for valor and conduct. I do know he saved the Twins from being moved to St. Petersberg, FL before most of the people posting stuff about him were born, and he ran the team like he said he would. I do know his ownership brought 2 World Series Championships to the Twins, which are the only championships in one of the major 4 sports Minnesota has ever won. There's also the fact he was involved in baseball's contraction plan which would have contracted the Twins, and he clearly tried to manipulate the public into building a new stadium to stave off a North Carolina sale which was extremely unlikely to ever happen. He also engaged in legal, but underhanded business practices which landed him in hot water, politically. There's a difference between criticizing people based on truthful information versus spreading blatant misinformation to try and destroy them publicly. Doing the latter weakens the credibility of anybody doing the former in my opinion. Also, this topic was labeled "reflecting on the positives."
  25. bean5302
    Seems to be they were "okay" but not really good in terms of results. FIP really liked them, though... 5th in fWAR in all of baseball last year 19th in ERA 19th in WPA 16th in Innings 11th in Wins (35) 23rd in Losses (31) Combined the bullpen's W-L record was an 86 win pace (.530)
×
×
  • Create New...