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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Gallo with better HR and OPS numbers than Aaron Judge and Yordan Alverez. I know that won't hold up...but, what if it does? 🤩 (Gallo with only the 7th-highest K% on the club, as well...which seems astounding.) Rocco's dilemma:...continue to 'shield' him in the bottom of the order...or move him up to get him more PA.
  2. jkcarew
    Yeah. Not that the Twins were horrific over that stretch...they were slightly over 500 2002-2022. But the Yankees were being the Yankees. The Yankees won 267 more games than the Twins over that span...an average of over 12 games better each year. And to make it tougher on the Twins, when the Yankees had bad years (i.e., barely over 500)...those years lined up with the Twins truly horrific seasons of the 20-teens.
  3. jkcarew
    I’m chuckling at all the posters that are ecstatic over the Yankees season series thing. I’m happy, don’t get me wrong. And, maybe it’s just because I’m old and can easily remember when the Twins were legitimately better than the Yankees…but here’s the thing… In the 21 seasons (2002-2022) during this streak, the Twins finished with a better record than the Yankees exactly one time. 2020, the strike-shortened season, when…you guessed it…the Twins and Yankees didn’t play during the regular season. (This, while the Yankees were competing in a superior, sometimes far superior, division as well.) The Yankees were always the better team. And that’s what season series do. They mitigate extreme small-sample chance and separate the stronger team from the weaker team. (Or the very strong team from the strong one.) So, I honestly never felt ‘bad’ when we lost to the Yankees (just disappointed), nor did I ever feel that the Twins were unlucky, intimidated, or choking. I know it’s hard to accept across 21+ years, but sports can be cruel..especially when comparing your favorite team to the New York Yankees. Anyway…that’s Step 1. Step 2: still be better than them in October.
  4. jkcarew
    Ryan might never be the type of pitcher that dominates on a regular basis. But here’s the thing I LOVE about him…he’s aggressive. He’s not afraid to throw the ball over the plate. Including…and this is the best part…when things aren’t going great. He doesn’t crawl into a shell when getting hit and/or behind. Getting a few ‘extra’ outs in poor, fair, and good starts. Makes the entire staff just a little bit better.
  5. jkcarew
    I'm not buying the 'swinging at pitcher's pitches' thing. His walk rate is up this year...fairly significantly. He's showing patience. He's not hitting the ball as hard and he's hitting it on the ground more. Swing related in my opinion.
  6. jkcarew
    Maybe the definition of irony... The four mentioned here as the 'core'...here are their current ranking in team bWAR... P. Lopez: 2nd; Duran: 11th; Buxton: outside top 12; Correa: outside top 12 For Correa that will come around. If Buxton remains a DH, he is NOT a core player. If current trends continue (and they never do)...and if I had to make the number 4...I'd go with... P. Lopez, Ryan, Correa, TBD (someone is going to have to be a star, IMO, among Lewis, Kirilloff, Lee).
  7. jkcarew
    Maybe I’m using the wrong term with ‘natural lefty’ since he throws with his right arm. I’m assuming that his ‘natural swing’ is left-handed…as it is for most switch hitters.
  8. jkcarew
    For some reason, Polanco always looks hitterish to me when batting from the right side. His career splits do not bare that out. He's been decent as a right-handed batter...but not as good as he's been as a lefty. Still, I swear that right-handed swing is a pretty good looking swing for a natural lefty.
  9. jkcarew
    I'm confused on what they're doing with Balazovic. This is not a pattern of ramping up...and if the weight thing was an issue, they would still be 'ramping'...just slowly and conservatively. But there is zero ramping going on based on game appearances. Maybe they're using bullpen sessions...and the short relief stints are used as "feedback" from his bullpen work? Or he's a reliever now?
  10. jkcarew
    Please don’t describe a pitcher exhausting 100 pitches to get through 5 innings as “sharp” Please don’t insinuate that Buxton’s recent struggles had anything to do with his base running ‘incident’.
  11. jkcarew
    Poorly played game by Twins. But, in general, the lack of situational plays, like bunting and hitting and running isn’t as much of a Twins thing as it is a MLB thing. There just aren’t many players around anymore that have the skill set to play small ball…even when it’s the ‘right’ or ‘best’ approach for the situation. Glass half-full…. The pitching keeps our head above water into June. The bats start warming up at least a little…and Kirilloff and/or Lewis provide a spark, setting the stage for a stronger, more balanced team in the second half. That’s what a successful season is starting to look like. Maybe not likely, but still seems relatively realistic/possible.
  12. jkcarew
    Agree on Gordon. He is not the same hitter, and the difference is too large to ignore, even within the small sample. Really, really low K%, but with an accompanying horrifically low BABiP of 116. I'll say this though...even with the soft contact, the BABiP HAS to go up. I'm of the opinion...let's see how this plays out. I still think he's more valuable than the Solano's and Farmer's of the world, but he doesn't have a ton of time. The opportunities might really start drying up if club health trends swing to the positive direction. And yes. I'd be GREAT with Judge putting up the same results in the upcoming home series as he put up against us in the recent series at Yankee Stadium.
  13. jkcarew
    The Twins have 'average' speed only in theory, since Buxton doesn't run...and the other guys that hold up the top-end of that average don't get on base much. I don't know who expected the Twins to be aggressive. I didn't. Stealing bases for the sake of stealing bases does nothing for me. As the article states, outs are more valuable than the 90 feet almost all the time...hence the need to be 75+% successful to even break even. Having said that, it would be nice to have the ABILITY to play that game...to have that tool in the toolkit...for certain situations. I don't think we have that. So, we probably shouldn't force it much.
  14. jkcarew
    Yeah...I thought the shift rules were stupid when I first heard of them. Seemed intuitive to me that they wouldn't have any material impact...and certainly not the desired impact. Nothing's happening that would make me question that view. The thing that bugs me about the narrative on shifts is that they are a REASON for the modern low BA/OBP. No. They. Are. Not. The extreme shifting has been around forever...Ted Williams saw extreme shifting, Killebrew saw it...many players saw it. It wasn't used as much as what we've seen recently because back then maybe 20% of the guys were trying to pull and hit HR's on every pitch. Now it's 95%. The reason for the low BA/OBP is the near total adoption of this approach. Back in the day, maybe 2 or 3 guys in a batting order regularly used that approach...and, even at that, it tended to be somewhat situational...guys tended to have more than one tool in their bag. Now it's all they know how to do...and they've been trained to do, from age 9. And it's compounded by the fact that they're using this approach into the teeth of a trend where the batter will see multiple pitchers every game, each able to max effort every single pitch. Swinging and missing is the reason for the modern low BA/OBP. And limiting shifts, at BEST, will have no impact on that...and, at worse, could add to the problem by validating attempts to pull and launch at every PA.
  15. jkcarew
    It's a simple concept. If Buxton plays center field, you replace Taylor's bat in the lineup with a DH that can hit. You take the weakest batter out of the order and replace him with a good...or at least dangerous, bat. And yes, this 100% WILL help the offense over weeks/months. No, it won't 'FIX' the offense. Of course, if you think Taylor's recent 'hot' streak is sustainable...then, disagree. Meanwhile, you HAVE to believe Buxton will warm up. If you don't, then he shouldn't be playing at all.
  16. jkcarew
    I don’t think the rules have effected the Twins in any way that they haven’t impacted every other team…. Shift Rules: negligible impact…basically zero impact; BABiP has not changed materially…players haven’t changed approach by hitting more balls on the ground, etc. Pitch Clock: seems to be a universal hit, but doesn’t provide a unique advantage/disadvantage to any one team. Soon, the teams who have taken the most violations will adjust. I think the one change that favors some teams is the pickoff attempt rule (in combination with the clock). Success rates on SB attempts are up, and IMO it’s all about the restrictions on how pitchers can hold runners, and not about the 4 inches. Regardless, the Twins lose ground on some teams here, because the Twins still don’t, and won’t, attempt stolen bases.
  17. jkcarew
    Well, the Twins went into the game with the 5th best bullpen ERA in the majors. So, I don't think they're paying for anything quite yet. We'll see how things progress (or regress).
  18. jkcarew
    I don't know if the narrative for this game would be "bullpen implodes". IMO, Pagan imploded... then the rest of the game was low leverage guys challenging every hitter by throwing the ball over the plate early and often to speed things up and get the guys off the field, into the showers, and on the plane.
  19. jkcarew
    Oops.
  20. jkcarew
    He is what he is at this point. I expect the K% to come back 'down' to 30%, his career rate, as the season progresses. But the OBP won't...low 300's is about as good as it's going to get. The biggest problem right now...the biggest difference between 2023 and 2019-2022 for Buxton is that his HR-rate is WAY WAY down. Instead of an Aaron Judge pace, he's on a 162-game pace for about 20. That's not going to provide a ton of value combined with the low OBP. For Buxton to be 'good' offensively, his fly balls need to leave the park at a very, very high rate. That's what he's had in his recent good seasons...league-leading HR/FB rates. That's who he is offensively.
  21. jkcarew
    My bad. Maybe I ignored it because of all the K's :)
  22. jkcarew
    I'm very surprised Gallo came back without a rehab assignment. He was out quite a while to simply step right back in and hit major league pitching. Good for him. (And the Twins!)
  23. jkcarew
    What are they doing with Balazovic? I would have expected them to stretching him out for starting assignments, not bringing him in to get 3 outs at the end of games. If they are all-in to bolster the 2023 major-league bullpen with the likes of Balazovic and Headrick, that might be the 'best' thing to do for the club in 2023...but, not sure it's the right thing for Balazovic or Headrick. Interesting.
  24. jkcarew
    Yeah. Feel bad for any local A's fans. But Oakland wasn't going to work...and for more reasons than just the stadium. I can't blame ownership on this one. I guess they could have been more transparent in the process, but don't know how realistic that is given the need to maintain a little leverage with Vegas and/or whoever else may have been in play.
  25. jkcarew
    I don't think we know yet that Balazovic is "not performing" this year, do we? It seems like they are working on stretching him out since he didn't have a spring training. Ridiculously small sample, but it's significantly better than his typical appearances last year. I'm assuming the appearances will get longer and more frequent. TBD.
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