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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Which matches the eye test, and makes sense. Lineups that hit a lot of singles get lots of fastballs, since a hit often isn't any (or much) worse than a walk. That's not the Twins. Lineups like the Twins, that hit a ton of home runs get lots of breaking balls...and fastballs on the edge or outside the zone. Twins power hitters...especially since Sano seems to have made his adjustments...aren't getting challenged with fastballs in the zone frequently, at least by the 80%+ of pitchers that don't have extraordinary fastballs. It's amazing how many 2-1 and 3-1 pitches the Twins get that are still not fastballs.
  2. jkcarew
    “Make sure not to pass on the message but opposing pitchers and coaching staffs must not have caught on to Minnesota’s fastball tendencies. Through this weekend’s games, the Twins have seen fastballs in 26.4% of their at-bats while the MLB average is 22.0%. Mitch Garver (34.2 FB%), Miguel Sano (32.6%), Jason Castro (31.1%), Eddie Rosario (30.4%) and Max Kepler (30.1%) are all seeing fastballs at least a third of the time. The Twins also have five other regular players with a FB% above the league average.” No. You are quoting batted ball statistics, not pitches faced. The Twins have a 26.4% FLY BALL rate...vs league average of 22%.
  3. jkcarew
    Not sure I remember many names from the list of bad relievers that became good starters. I would consider that more a hope than a plan. Meanwhile, the Twins should be as patient as they can with Romero, but think he needs to figure out how to get guys out from the bullpen before I’d be pushing him back to a starting role.
  4. jkcarew
    Arraez is a second baseman or (maybe) a super utility guy. Even as good as he’s been, he’s one week of bad BABiP from being a sub-800 OPS guy. (Current BABiP is in Carew territory...and as good or better than most of Gwynn’s seasons...this is as good as we could reasonably expect over large samples.) The bat plays much better at second (or in a super utility role). His OBP is a great fit for the current lineup which is full of guys who can SLG...future Twins lineups? We’ll see. Also, why would you say Cave has a smaller sample size than Arraez? For this year, I guess...but why wouldn’t last year mean anything? Cave has a larger sample. Cave is OPS+’ing 115 for his career (112 last season) across more than 450 plate appearances. This is a good talker for us, but too many things need to play out including health and performances and the profile of the opposition’s pitching. I expect the staff won’t spend too much thought on this until shortly before those decisions need to be made.
  5. jkcarew
    This. Outfield especially...aren’t even directionally correct/consistent. Makes sense when who makes the putout (center fielder or corner fielder) is often arbitrary...and each player defends a different area and geometry based on ballpark (among many other problems with current data). Meanwhile, infield metrics will get less reliable before they get more, given all the variances in how/when teams shift. Some day we will laugh at the era where we had defensive metrics that only considered results, without accounting for time, distance, two and three dimensional coordinates, etc...and without accounting for impacts of alignments and adjacent defenders. Meanwhile, I immediately back out the defensive component to a player’s WAR when considering any argument for/against that player based on WAR. Or simply go to his wRC+, and let my eyeballs and common sense add/subtract if there is anything on the defensive side to warrant it.
  6. jkcarew
    Thought I had heard that velocity was up during the broadcast. First couple of innings. Maybe just anecdotal for a small number of pitches and not supported by the body of the data for that outing? If so, it's just another reason to seriously consider shutting him down for a start or two now....not waiting.
  7. jkcarew
    It's a good question. I wonder if his improved velocity (results notwithstanding) in the recent start against Texas convince them to forge ahead for now with the idea of resting him later if/when the opportunity arises or if the results continue to be poor? If he were to make all his remaining scheduled starts, his total innings workload wouldn't come in that much beyond the 192+ he had last year. And his next scheduled start lines up against Boyd in the opener of the Detroit series, unfortunately...kind of makes it less 'ideal' to start a rookie against Boyd. I would guess they are actively evaluating him and these options.
  8. jkcarew
    Really good question, right? Has to be lack of command of one or both. I guess we'll find out...or hopefully not !
  9. jkcarew
    I'm a fan. IMO, Sano pretty consistently demonstrates a love of the game, of winning, and of his teammates. Becoming a great power hitter in the major leagues is a process...lot's of players experience greatness...several even right out of the gate...but relatively few sustain it. It's a process of trying to learn and trying to adjust...and it seems like Miguel has finally embarked on that process. It still won't be linear, and it remains to be seen where it will take him, but I'm encouraged and exited that he's begun the process.
  10. jkcarew
    Is Cavaco injured? Over two months into his professional career and we’re shy of 80 PA. On the back lots, maybe? Hasn’t appeared in a game for 9 days now. Very quiet debut for a #13 overall pick, to say the least.
  11. jkcarew
    Dumb play by a young guy followed by a harmless plunking of Kepler. Professionals policing themselves. Much ado about nothing.
  12. jkcarew
    Not sure Astudillo is prominent in plans unless more injuries occur. If he came back today, it's possible he'd replace Cave...but, then Cruz returns. Having said that, Sept 1 is fast approaching, and I'm sure he'd be one they'd want on the expanded roster.
  13. jkcarew
    But why would the roster situation (one spot open) preclude Thorpe being the callup? I agree that the spot is open for Graterol...and that move will be coming. But I'd guess Thorpe for this one. His last start was only 3 innings and 42 pitches three days ago...and relatively clean. Meanwhile Graterol has had two appearances and 3 innings at Pensacola since his return. In his last, he threw 14 pitches, 6 for strikes, walked two of the four batters he faced. Graterol wouldn't shock me...he's coming...but I've got a case of Grain Belt Premium that I recently found in the garage that says this one will be Thorpe.
  14. jkcarew
    If you're removing Cron from the lineup to insert Garver...probably worth a try. If Cron is healthy and simply slumping... Removing Cron from the lineup to insert Gonzalez or Adrianza...beware the small sample size trap. Those moves would be unlikely to help offensively over the longer term. And none of the options are likely to improve the infield defense materially...maybe the opposite.
  15. jkcarew
    "Max Kepler once had a 10 DRS roughly a month ago and has slumped all the way back to just 5 DRS on the season." Beware of defensive statistics. In many cases, they're downright stupid. The Twins defense has been exactly what you could have expected it to be from the very beginning of the year, but recently with the offense only scoring 5 runs a game, the errors are way more memorable/impactful. Everyone knew they would be weak on the infield and good in the outfield. The dynamic that's changed is Kepler has played more center field than ideal, Rosario has been slowed...and Arraez in place of Schoop, drops the infield another half-notch maybe. You're left with a pretty poor defensive team. Buxton back helps, but it doesn't change the dynamic. This team is not build to win with defense or pitching. The pitching and defense can be marginally better, but they'll win by beating the opposition into submission with their offense. Or they won't win.
  16. jkcarew
    Killebrew was hitting HRs at a rate of 7+% in an era when non-pitchers were hitting them at about a 2.3% rate. That's three times the rate of the league. Just for context... If Max Kepler was hitting HRs at 3x the league average in 2019 (non-pitchers)...his current 501 PA would give him 58 HR on the season. Needless to say, nobody hits home runs at the rate of 3x league average anymore.
  17. jkcarew
    This much I know for sure.... Standing in the box and looking out at that, out there on top of the mound, 60 feet six inches away....he could throw 100 90-mph fastballs over the middle of the plate and I'd never make contact. My toes would be scraping the outside of the box and I'd be bailing before his release. I guess that's why I'm a fan.
  18. jkcarew
    And then there's Gonzalez's career 101 OPS+ to Adrianza's 87. I like Adrianza as an occasional utility guy on the infield...and coming off the bench (though I wish he was faster on the bases). He's not a guy where you're going to choose to make him an every-day presence in the lineup, if you have an alternative like Gonzalez.
  19. jkcarew
    "Is his 4.0% BB rate and .386 BABIP sustainable? Probably not, we saw him do the exact same thing in 2014 when his BABIP was sky-high and it was just as unsustainable then as it is now, but it is still weird to see him back in the majors like this." While a factor, Santana's current BABiP has much less to do with his 2019 value than his HR%. Even if the BABiP starts regressing, he'll still be plenty valuable if he continues to hit home runs at his current clip of 5.38% (better than Carlos Santana, about the same as Matt Chapman).
  20. jkcarew
    What confuses me is the low (relatively) K% given he throws 100 mph at the AA level. His K% at Pensacola this year is 24.6%....slightly behind Bryan Sammons. Here are the Twins pitchers with a higher K% at the major-league level this year....Odorizzi, Rogers, May, Duffey, Poppen. Kyle Gibson is at 22.6%. Something isn't adding up quite yet. Lack of high-quality secondary pitch where everyone can sit on the FB? Poor command, tending to throw the FB over the middle of the plate? Some of each? He's 20...got plenty of time to figure that out. But, right now I'm not counting on him to come up and blow people away.
  21. jkcarew
    Take heed prospect rankers! Everyone knew Arraez would hit. But his other tools (particularly power and speed) were deemed weak and average. And there always seems to be a bias for ceiling...but doesn't give enough weight to the risk associated with the tool that is the most important tool by a mile. So, the fast and and/or powerful guy that 'might' hit gets ranked ahead of the guy that you know will hit. Having said that...I do the same thing.
  22. jkcarew
    Wiel has done very very well for himself advancing to this point as a 12th round draft pick. But he's not really having a great season. Actually, he's having his worse professional season...by far. The AAA ball (and Rochester's park) are inflating statistics pretty horrifically. Wiel's OPS is actually below Rochester's team collective OPS. His wRC+ is 98. Which is downright poor for a first baseman. But, it will be interesting to see how he does with the 'opportunity' to repeat AAA next year...as he's been significantly better at each of his previous stops in the minors....and at 26 still could be a late bloomer. Here are some wRC+ for some of the 'prospects' at Rochester... Jake Cave 146 Brent Rooker 138 LaMonte Wade 103 Nick Gordon 101 Zander Wiel 98
  23. jkcarew
    No mention of Romero?
  24. jkcarew
    Agree that you continue to play Javier. But it sure looks like it was a mistake to start him in A ball when he finally came back. That wasn’t necessary given the timing of his return.
  25. jkcarew
    Interesting article. Gives pause, for sure...but, I think I'm with vavo above...the biggest difference to my eyeballs is that the breaking pitch doesn't seem to be the weapon that it was. The velocity data notwithstanding, the 'mediocre' results seem to be tied more to the quality and command of the breaking ball...it not resulting in swings and misses and chases. IMO, we're simply seeing what he is. If he was any stronger/more durable and if his stuff was much better, he'd be Cole or deGrom or Verlander...or a prime version of Kluber, Scherzer, Kershaw, or Greinke. Instead, he's just very good...but can't be counted on to frequently dominate good lineups. You'd be golden if you had more than one of him. When he's your top, though...you're probably not going to have a match-up advantage in the post-season. So far. He's just 25. But for now, you're probably going to need to rest him at some point between now and October. I'd want it to be during a stretch against the bottom of the ALC.
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