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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    “…given Buxton’s .903 OPS over the past three seasons…” I think you meant to say over his last 540 plate appearances. Sign him for a discount based on the health AND performance risk…or trade him before the season starts.
  2. jkcarew
    Mite be a bit early for that claim…it looks strong with 8 players in the majors, but 5 of those with negative bWAR at this point…and they’re all just getting their feet wet…and Miranda and Balazovic not having even dipped a tow yet. Bringing up the 2016 draft in this thread does, however, raise the question…why isn’t this article about Tyler Wells? ?
  3. jkcarew
    If Reed is a mistake, then they made it 3 times. He has been waived twice this year, each time being claimed by a team with a better record than the Twins. I think that’s a pretty firm “no”…in that this FO at least doesn’t think a mistake was made. Even guys like Ynoa…sure it’d be great to have that one back…but a very common sentiment on this site at the time is that the Twins should have gone bigger at that deadline. 90% here are going to complain if you aren’t willing to trade prospects at the deadline (when headed for the playoffs)…and 90% will complain that the trade was made when the prospect turns out to be good.
  4. jkcarew
    Dobnak started 5 games…and the numbers speak for themselves. And nobody proves their worth in spring training facing lineups peppered with minor leaguers. Nobody. I agree that he was serviceable in previous years, though, so maybe there’s hope. I’m not optimistic.
  5. jkcarew
    Not sure how I’m supposed to feel sorry for Dobnak. He was awful as a starter this year almost immediately. I’d venture a guess that he was happy to have an opportunity to move to the pen…not to mention very happy with the contract that the Twins gave him…and absolutely 100% didn’t have to or need to give him. To be fair to him, he’s still just 26 years old…so, there’s still a chance, I guess. And while the old-timers were around, they watched the Twins take 2 of 3 against the best team in the AL.
  6. jkcarew
    Honestly IMO, it’s a no-brained to DFA Dobnak. If someone wants his contract, fine…if not, he’s filler at AAA…the contract is nothing. If the prospects (and literally any FA) aren’t at least immediately as good (bad) as Dobnak, you’ve got bigger issues. I guess maybe they think he can be a useful bullpen arm. I don’t…unless you consider the guy who comes in and eats innings in blowouts ‘useful’. Keeping guys like this around simply because you gave them a contract, a small one at that, is exactly how losing organizations stay losing organizations. I don’t think you have both Rooker and Garlick on the 40- man, at least in 2022 (unless you move Sano, I suppose). That makes it tough to keep Garlick, even though he’s outperformed Rooker to this point. In general, I’m not high on 5-11 pitchers with any history of arm issues. But I suppose desperation warrants that you give Colina a chance.
  7. jkcarew
    Don’t understand how Garrit Cole was able to silence that lineup. Obviously, we just choked.?
  8. jkcarew
    Wow…lots of definitive opinions based on watching 4 innings. The swings and misses are encouraging. I’m pretty sure we’ll see him this year. If I were Buxton and had been out as long as he has, I’d want to see some AAA PA’s…not a lot, but some, before stepping in against the Major leaguers.
  9. jkcarew
    It’s a chasm. Unless you think Arraez is going to wRC+ 150-170 over a 5 year period like Carew or have multiple years in the 150-160 range like Gwynn…stealing 50 bases and hitting 12-17 home runs. Hundreds of players have put up nice batting averages immediately. And 99% didn’t end up Carew or Gwynn…and the vast majority didn’t come close. Those guy were both stronger and way faster than Arraez…not even in the same universe athletically. Arraez does great with what he has, and I’ll continue to enjoy what he brings to the club. I think you’re going to be wrong on Mauer. Well see.
  10. jkcarew
    His ceiling is nowhere near Carew or Gwynn. Doesn’t mean he isn’t good and can’t get better. And you’re going to be disappointed on that Mauer thing.
  11. jkcarew
    The K’s really aren’t the scariest thing with Larnach…it’s the lack of power/SLG. Larnach’s OBP this season….322…he shows good signs of discipline in the box. Kirilloff, who seems to get himself out at a high rate by swinging at pitcher’s pitches early in the count…his OBP was 299. But, Kirilloff makes up for it somewhat with the x-base pop. Both have a good ways to go.
  12. jkcarew
    No way do I have Lewis #1 at this point. His bat is a huge question mark, unless you consider 95 AFL PA…two years and an ACL ago…his arrival. Keep in mind that if he isn’t a major league shortstop ( very much debated by scouts), the threshold for the bat goes up significantly. For instance, who is a better 3rd base prospect right now…Miranda or Lewis? Who’s the better CF prospect…Martin or Lewis? I still believe in the upside, but for me way too much has happened in the last two years…and two weeks…for Lewis to be #1. Also, Jermaine Palacios has earned a spot in the top 30…perhaps in place of Javier. These rankings are fun….keep them coming!
  13. jkcarew
    I agree that Buxton’s situation would have an impact on how they look at SS free agents this year. Not sure how anyone would draw the conclusion that the Twins see Gordon as a major league SS. They played him there 2 games of the 38 he had with the big club…and it’s not like Simmons was demanding at bats with his performance. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they end up rostering Palacios. I’d put him at more like 20%.
  14. jkcarew
    And it wasn’t just walks and errors, he was getting hit… 6 hits in 1.2 innings. We’ll see. Hopefully, he’s healthy.
  15. jkcarew
    Palacios.
  16. jkcarew
    You’re confusing value with consistency. The above demonstrates modest value (which I’d agree with), not remarkable inconsistency. Not uncommon at all for a perfectly ‘consistent’ player to have full-year WAR that deviates in magnitude 2, 3, 4 per year. Check out Kirby Puckett. There’s BABiP in play year to year along with extremely imperfect defensive stats, and normal variation in performance.
  17. jkcarew
    So, to summarize…Sano’s been better than Kirilloff, even accounting for his first awful months. But not significantly better. Meanwhile, significantly better than both Larnach and Kepler. Also, he was benched. Being ‘platooned’ has had nothing to do with his performance…his splits have been better against righties than lefties this year. Bottom line, there is nothing in Sano’s overall performance that warrants the FO being in a hurry to get rid of him. They can wait for the next generation to actually arrive rather than assume they will arrive.
  18. jkcarew
    I think there’s a good argument that Cavaco’s floor is as low as any prospect we’ve looked at in the top 30. Probably a statement both on the improved depth in the system, and the fact that Cavaco was a bit of a reach where the Twins took him, really hasn’t shown much at all in the early going…nor does he seem someone likely to stay at SS.
  19. jkcarew
    Hyperbole. In fact, the opposite is true. Sano’s floor is somewhere between Davis and Carter. And he’s been more consistent, not less. Davis posted seven years of negative bWAR, (and one with 7+!)…Carter 3 or 4 with negative WAR. Sano has had one…and 2021 isn’t going to be a second. Also, say what you want about Sano’s defense, he has infinitely more defensive value than either Davis or Carter had. He’s been significantly better than both Larnach and Kirilloff over the season…and especially over the last 2+ months. Should the Twins be able to better at 1B/DH? Maybe…it would be nice. But is Sano even close to a top problem for the 2022-2023 Twins? No, not even close. That’s why he’ll likely be around next year…unless he can be a part of something that brings pitching in return.
  20. jkcarew
    Curious time to throw Sano in with Burrows, Barnes, and Rooker, isn’t it? With a slick fielding first baseman who never makes an error…instead of Sano…the final score of this game is 10-0.
  21. jkcarew
    But it explains the severely restricted pitch count so far. I’m sure Chief could tell us the sad story of Methuselah…had his old-testament league career cut short after a couple hundred years…all because his rookie year manager was too aggressive with pitch count. Cost him anywhere from 2-3 dollars in lost salary over a career that could have gone another six or seven centuries easily.
  22. jkcarew
    Neither Simmons nor the statue look anything remotely like Ted Simmons. If it weren’t for the flow, I’d have had no clue. ? Still, are we sure it’s not Darell Porter? And for that matter, even after all these years, can we be sure Darrell Porter and Ted Simmons aren’t the same guy? And why in the world do you do a statue of Ted Simmons batting right-handed?. It’s not like he was better from the right side. He wasn’t. And, of course, he had twice as many…everything…from the left side. Was there a famous right-handed postseason at-bat I don’t remember?
  23. jkcarew
    Any truth to rumors that Twins were reticent,,,willing to walk away…but then the Cardinals promised to start him in a game this weekend if the Twins pulled the trigger?
  24. jkcarew
    Yeah…that’s a good point….in my brain, I had him back by playoff time. Need to trade him this off season if you haven’t signed him by then, though. I’m very ok (happy) signing Buxton for something close to the rumored numbers. But not substantially more, IMO. We’ll see!
  25. jkcarew
    It’s probably exactly as likely that the Twins will regret trading Berrios as it is they’ll end up regretting not trading Buxton. There was a good argument for keeping Berrios…but it begins and ends with 2022. Buxton? How much lower will offers be in the off season if he isn’t extended by then…if parties drift further, not closer, to an agreement? He’s not a guy I give huge money to, be he’s not a guy you can just let walk either.
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