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To me the added bonus is probably worth more than the trade piece. If the Twins trade Farmer before 11/15 (?). It opens a 40 man slot for a player they believe would be taken in the rule 5 draft. It would be like getting 2 players for Farmer. If a trade can't be done by 11/15, i wouldn't trade him unless someone is overpaying.

IMO looking at it as a mega trade makes it more it the Twins favor. The Twins made the postseason with Gray. I believe Cincinnati would made the postseason if Gray were pitching for them. Farmer provided quality defense (2 OAA) and came up with a few clutch hits. Castro (2 OAA) and Solano (-4 OAA) probably would not be on the Twins roster had they retained Steer (-17 OAA) & CES (0 OAA). Steer and CES had better offensive years, but I'm not sure that makes up for the net OAA of -15. Also I wonder what Steer and CES would have done with the Twins batting philosophy, It would have nice if Mahle hadn't broken down, but the Twins went to the postseason with Gray, Farmer, Castro & Solano. I believe that the FO looked at Steer and CES not having a clear path to the MLB with the Twins. With Kirilloff's injuries, it would be nice to have Steer or CES, but who knows Lee may be manning 1st next year.

Was Petty injured, he only pitched 68 innings over 18 starts? If Gray rejects the QO and signs a contract for over $50M, the Twins would receive a draft pick after the 1st round, in the 30s as far as draft picks. Petty was the 26th pick so the comp pick is pretty close to Petty's slot. When Petty pitched he did very well with a 1.72 ERA in A+ and AA. It looks like a trade that worked out for both teams.

How many wins are expected with replacement value starter? Gray suffered through lack of run support and blown saves, so the Twins record when he started was 14-18 (43.75% win percentage). Kuechel & Varland combined to go 8-8 in their starts. Of our primary starters, other than Gray, the Twins winning percent in their starts ranged from 50.00% for Maeda to 61.54% for Ober. For reference the Yankees won almost 70% of Gerrit Cole's starts. I hope that Gray will accept a QO, but I think that is a long shot. The Twins were 7-43 when scoring 2 runs or less, which only occurred 14 times after the AS break, which corresponded with the reduction in ABs for Buxton and Gallo (accounted for 15.0% of ABs prior to AS break and 5.3% after AS break. During the regular season, I believe the Twins will easily by able to make up for Gray's absence with just fewer empty ABs and a better bullpen. The post season will be a different story in that Gray threw one gem and couldn't make up for Kirilloff's error in the second game. +--

I believe that the key for 2024 will be the health of our starting pitching. This season only Mahle went down with a serious injury and Ober made the most of that opportunity. With no FA signings the Twins have Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack and Varland. Much better than 2022, but with very little depth.

I agree that Gray won't accept a QO. He has a chance for a 3-5 year contract. Jake Odorizzi accepted a QO from the Twins and got injured and ended up earning substantially less than he would have earned on FA contract. I do believe that there is a chance he will sign with the Twins for the following reasons: I don't think that he will go back to the NYY or any other high pressure environment, nor do I think these teams will offer him a high guaranteed contracts (incentives could bring the value of the contract up) Target Field is fair to pitchers, I don't think he would want to be in a band box or Coors Field. The Twins should be competitive for the foreseeable future. At his age money isn't every thing. His career earnings total over $60 million. After you consider agent fees and taxes he will probably only receive about 50% of any difference in FA contracts. Based on the above I believe the Twins could miss being the high bidder, but still end up signing Gray. If not, the Twins should receive a high draft pick.

Yes I believe that umpiring affected this series. Was it enough to allow the Twins to win the series? Probably not, but I can't say it is an absolute certainty. I believe the inside pitch ball/strike call should be the easiest to make as the is where the umpire is setting up. The top of the zone should also be easy as the umpire should get into position so his eye level is at the top of zone. Low and away pitches should be the most difficult to call. I also believe that an incorrect called third strike is the worst error an umpire can make, as the batter can't overcome that error. I took look at the most impactful pitches in each game for called third strikes. Game 1 Through six innings against Verlander, the Twins had 2 inside balls called strikes. Since the Twins hit into 2 double plays their were only 16 at bats ending in outs. So the umpire took the bats out of the Twins hand 12.5% of the time to that point, which I find as significant. No Astros had the bats taken out of their hands for the game. Game 2 Castro had a pitch that umpire scorecard has over the top of the zone for called third strike. Game 3 No called third strikes made the most impactful pitches. Game 4 Kepler had an inside pitch called strike 3. Tucker for the Astros had an outside pitch called strike 3. We will never know what would have happened if those incorrect calls not be made. As an accountant what I find odd is that the Twins had negative scores 5 out 6 games and have 5 of the 7 largest negative scores in 22 games played this postseason. No team with a negative score is still in the postseason, Arizona is .38, Philly .43, Texas .69 and Houston 1.37. As stated above the Twins were -3.79. So yes I believe the umpiring has an affect on games.

I believe Houston won because they made all the defensive plays and the pitches. Their previous playoff experience made the difference.

The problem is that the playoffs are a small sample size: The Twins have a negative score in 5 of six games Of the 21 games they have the 3 largest negative scores -1.46, -.96, -.77. Miami has the only other negative score greater that -.50 at -.63. All of the teams with a negative cumulative score have been eliminated. When will the umpiring even out? Certainly not this year for the Twins. When have the Twins benefited of umpiring to even out Cuzzi foul ball call? Edit: The Twins negative score represent 5 of the largest 7 games this postseason. I agree with a commenter above that the Twins AB were poor. Toronto and Houston are good teams, they don't need the umpires helping them out.

My question is why the Twins are so often the victim of the bad calls. The umpire scorecard has the Twins being negatively effected in 5 out of 6 games. The only positive score was game 3, which was a blowout so the umpiring had no effect on the outcome. . The final pitch to Max was a strike on the outside edge, but the strike call in 6th wasn't close to the inside edge as shown by umpscoredcard, Gameday & Fox. The inside pitch should be the easiest to call as that is where the umpire is setting up. What happens if both of those called strikes were called balls? We will never know. FYI the cumulative ump scorecard (which I know is unofficial) for all the teams are as follows: Twins -3.79 (6 games) Miami -.77 (2) Tampa Bay -.55 (2) Milwaukee -.41 (2) Baltimore -.14 (3) LA Dodgers .03 (3) Philly .34 (5) Arizona .38 (5) Atlanta .43 (3) Texas .69 (5) Houston 1.37 (4) Toronto 2.42 (2) Note that the only teams with a cumulative score greater than + or - 1 are the Twins and their 2 opponents. So yes bring on the Robo umps. I would like to know for the 2023 season how many of Julien's called strikes were actually balls and vice versa.

The youngsters got all the hits. Paddack looked like a good replacement for Gray. The future looks bright for the Twins. Thanks to everyone who made these game threads possible.

An MLB doctor approved Kirilloff going on the IL, I think adding Buxton is more emotional than technical.

This is the 2023 Twins in a nutshell. They can play horribly and we expect it to continue. Then Ryan, Ober, Lewis Castro, etc. will come out and have a great game to turn the ship. Based on my negativity, I believe they will win tonight.

Read the article regarding Kirilloff's shoulder Rocco said: "We got him back to a reasonably good spot. He was never back to anything I would call 100 percent or close to it, but he got back to a point where he could swing. But we had to keep his workload light and kind of start there. That's why late in the season he was not playing every day. ... It just got worse." Based on the above I question whether Kirilloff should have been on the post season roster. He made a great stretch to get the final out of game 2 and some good scoops, but not enough to carry a non-existent bat.

Yesterday was a full system failure: Starting Pitching Relief Pitching Defense Offense A failure of any one of these can result in a loss, I am hoping that they got it all out of their system and play much better in games 4 and hopefully game 5. The Twins played tight in the field and at bat. For some reason I believe they will play a much better game tonight, as I believe the Astros will be tighter. The Astros don't want to have a game 5 and have to use Verlander, making him unavailable for games 1 or 2 of ALCS. The Twins are playing with house money in that they were expected to lose to Toronto and are expected to lose tonight.

In my dreams Twins will score 6 (or more) this inning at Pagan will get the win!

Earlier this year there was a survey as to what the Twins needed to do to be deemed a successful season, ranging from making the playoffs to winning the World Series. I couldn't find the results, but even if Houston knocks us out I consider 2023 to be successful.

Your right the 2002 Oakland As only won 103 regular season games. Texas won 90 games this year.

10/2/2002 Twins down 5-1 to Oakland after 2 innings, with 4 of the runs being unearned. Twins won 7-5. 8/27/2023 Twins down 4 to Texas, won 7-6. Atlanta came back from 4 down yesterday. I believe we CAN come back, will we is another question.

Was Kirilloff trying for a DP on his error?

4 runs in the first was the start I was hoping for the Twins.

Houston is a strange team in that they scored 16 fewer runs than there opponent at home and scored 145 more runs than their opponent on the road. From 8/31 their records against playoff contenders was 9-3 (Tx, Balt, Sea, AZ) but against the rest they were 4-11 (NYY, KC (1-5). Oak and SD). Game 3 is just as important as game 2 in that I don't believe we can afford to lose it. I feel we need a great start from Sonny, but I am hoping he will be able to go 5 innnings as Lopez was on but still had 105 pitches after 7 innings. The Astros will make Sonny work.

Umpire Scorecard is out +.77 Hou. The Twins opponents have been favored in all 4 games. (1.46, .96, .43, .77)

There were 3 parts to the final out. Carlos' diving stop, his throw and Kirilloff's stretch (Solano doesn't make that play). I wondered when they pinch hit for Solano, but it was the right move.

I hope Altuve bunts every AB