There’s a Real Path for Vahn Lackey to Reach the Twins Next Season

Jeffers won’t be with twins next season-diaw and caratini will be. Lackey will be up in 2 years and once that happens look out!!! Twins will be force and one of best teams!!! 

You say

“They could always give him the qualifying offer, which would be worth roughly $24 million, but it's unlikely. The only scenario where it would make sense is if the Twins knew for a fact that Jeffers was going to turn it down.”

Why is it unlikely?  And why does it only make sense if they knew that Jeffers was going to turn it down?  I don’t know if it is unlikely or not, but it seems imminently sensible to me. If he turns it down you get the compensatory pick. If he accepts you have arguably the best offensive catcher in the league for 1 year at $24 million.  Trade Caratini and the cost is only ~$17 million. 
 

and in 2028 Lackey is hopefully your new catcher. 

21 hours ago, MeleMouth said:

"He also has already drawn 23 walks, compared to just 21 strikeouts."

This indicates very little for a college player in the low minors, other than he's not swinging very much, and Lackey isn't, because his HiA swing rate is below 30%. His contact percentage in HiA is 75%; it would be good for that to be higher, particularly for such a selective hitter. For comparison, at the same age and level, Rutschman was swinging at 39% of pitches and making contact on 81.5% of his swings. With a few exceptions, letting a lot of pitches go doesn't work as well as players move up the ladder and face better pitchers.

Why do we have to hype every new top prospect as some kind of semi-savior, where he'll be in the majors in 12 months and a frequent all-star a year or two from that? It doesn't do anyone any good and I would argue that, although it kind of feels good, it's actually somewhat harmful.

I'm not saying there's no chance for Lackey to become a great player, but that the blue sky in this article and others is based on a 100% outcome where everything goes great. Maybe that will happen, but history suggests that a median outcome for a player with Lackey's background is something like becoming a little better than Ryan Jeffers, who's a good player, but not an all-star. Writing up 100% outcomes is not analysis, but hope.

I would tend to agree and yes, a Ryan Jeffers outcome would be a great outcome. Yet, let’s be honest. Vahn Lackey is wayyy more athletic, competed and thrived against much better competition in college. More polished defensively, better arm. He’s just better. Also, he’s showing exactly what he’s needed to show since being promoted. He’s on the same track as Culpepper and Houston with slightly better results.

As far as talent and results he’s on the Jenkins level above the Culpepper/Houston level. ‘27 is pushing it yes, but possible as the article states. If he starts ‘27 in A+ and does just what he’s doing right now he’ll be in AA May/June. A red hot June/July gets him to St.Paul and at that point if he holds his own or better he’s in play for an August/September call up. That’s a  75th percentile outcome I believe with anything higher being he just completely dominates A+,AA and AAA. In which case he’s a top 5/10 prospect globally and gets called up June/July. Rare but possible. 

No chance Jeffers would accept a one year deal. The Yankees are desperate for a catcher and will give him a 4 year contract at something like 15 mil. /year.

48 minutes ago, JCT66 said:

You say

“They could always give him the qualifying offer, which would be worth roughly $24 million, but it's unlikely. The only scenario where it would make sense is if the Twins knew for a fact that Jeffers was going to turn it down.”

 

Why is it unlikely?  And why does it only make sense if they knew that Jeffers was going to turn it down?  I don’t know if it is unlikely or not, but it seems imminently sensible to me. If he turns it down you get the compensatory pick. If he accepts you have arguably the best offensive catcher in the league for 1 year at $24 million.  Trade Caratini and the cost is only ~$17 million. 
 

and in 2028 Lackey is hopefully your new catcher. 

It was reported around the deadline that he was unlikely to accept the QO. Also, he’s been gearing up for this opportunity for a year. You don’t switch to Boras as your agent a year ahead of free agency and not plan on hitting the market. In the rare case he does that’s almost a perfect scenario. 
either way I don’t think you can get anything for Caratini unless a team is desperate in spring training. 
 

1 hour ago, jmlease1 said:

It's unlikely that Lackey is playing for the Twins in 2027, but the idea the Twins don't move prospects quickly through the organization is based more on hype and whining than evidence that they slow play their prospects substantially more than other organizations.

Culpepper only played 1 full season in the minors, and in the equivalent of less than 2 full seasons worth of games moved 5 levels. (and would have been up in MLB sooner if he hadn't picked up an injury)

Keaschall had a similar path and was aggressively promoted despite a significant arm injury.

For all the complaining about waiting too long on Jenkins, he's still in MLB at 21.

Twins move up prospects quickly that they think are ready for more. Won't be surprised at all if Houston starts next season in AAA and is looking at the Culpepper path.

2027 arrival is very very aggressive and seems unlikely just because he hasn't played a game above A-ball yet, catchers usually need time to develop their skill sets, and he was just drafted this year. Seems likely that he starts the season in AA in 2027, but his movement up will be based more on what he shows he can do and what he's ready for rather than the idea that the Twins have some organizational philosophy about not moving prospects quickly through the minors.

How dare you bringing facts to the conversation!  

21 hours ago, PuckettPond said:

He will be our greatest drafted catcher & future HOF. Pleasure to watch defensively and his swing is Legendary! Lets figure out where at Target Field to place his statue. He is everything Twins fans want in a catcher. He will end up Minnesota's most loved after Walleye, TatorTot Hotdish & Sloppy Joes. Excited to see how he does in Spring training.

Did Peter hack PuckettPond's acount?!

19 hours ago, FlyingFinn said:

Two things prevent Lackey from playing for the Twins in 2027 - 1) even great catchers usually don't move that fast through the minors, and 2) the Twins don't move their prospects real fast under this administration.

Will this administration be here next year, if Tom P. has a clue they won't be.

Wynegar:  I love this game so much I would play for free!

Calvin:  I really like this kid!

1 hour ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

No chance Jeffers would accept a one year deal. The Yankees are desperate for a catcher and will give him a 4 year contract at something like 15 mil. /year.

I tend to agree.  This is the payday window for Jeffers.  I suspect the Yankees or someone else will offer a large multi-year deal.

And this is why you make the QO, just to harvest the draft pick. 

And if Jeffers surprises the Twins and takes the one year QO?  That's ok.  The 2027 season may or may not start on time anyway.  Worst case is Jeffers provides a 1-year bridge to the next Twins catcher.  Or half a year, because if he is performing decently he can be traded in July 2027 if the Twins are not in contention.  Twins would then get more assets for an investment of approximately 12 million.  By July next year they will have a far better idea of how ready/not ready Lackey, Diaw, Tait, etc may be. 

On 9/4/2026 at 11:45 AM, LambchoP said:

He's played 8 games in high A. I'd be shooting for 2028 at best. Meaning we need a legit catching tandem for the next two years. Rolling with Caratini and Jackson is going to leave us weak at that position. Maybe Diaw will be ready sometime in '27....

I might not be the smartest guy in the world on this, but Jackson hits the baseball very well and is an adequate catcher unlike his past. somehow he's doing well when he gets the chance and he rarely gets to chance which means his average should be very low but it's not. we see constant articles. advocating players moving to the major leagues because they're mentally. statistics are so great. then they get to the major leagues. come to find out those pictures have a lot more movement on them and the batters with the 400 average in AAA find it real difficult to have any sort of adequate average of at the major league level. we all love Mr. Jenkins. he wears those his nice t-shirt with Jesus on it. a great young man, but it's back in average so far is .130. I feel 100% sure he's going to be a great major. leaguer but trying to put Mr. lackey on the major league team next season by what he's doing in single A I mean who is writing this stuff?

It’s possible but not likely. To create these type of expectations is how fans get disappointed. 

On 9/4/2026 at 2:58 PM, FlyingFinn said:

Two things prevent Lackey from playing for the Twins in 2027 - 1) even great catchers usually don't move that fast through the minors, and 2) the Twins don't move their prospects real fast under this administration.

And that other minor thing: Performance.

Right now he hasn't shown he can hit and his strikeout rate is high (and his walk rate doesn't matter in the least).  Post-draft performance isn't always representative for plenty of reasons.  I'm giving him a mulligan on this season, but he'll be playing against lesser competition than he should to start next year, then when promoted he'll be playing in one or two of the easiest minor league parks to hit in.  If he's not destroying next year, it does not bode well.

47 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

And that other minor thing: Performance.

Right now he hasn't shown he can hit and his strikeout rate is high (and his walk rate doesn't matter in the least).  Post-draft performance isn't always representative for plenty of reasons.  I'm giving him a mulligan on this season, but he'll be playing against lesser competition than he should to start next year, then when promoted he'll be playing in one or two of the easiest minor league parks to hit in.  If he's not destroying next year, it does not bode well.

Mmmmm none of this is really true and even in a small sample size of 23 games. He’s a tick better as far as being comparable to what Culpepper and Houston did in their draft year.

In watching a good portion of his games in both A and A+ he passes the eye test. His athleticism is superb. I wouldn’t give him a mulligan as far as performance as nobody that was drafted with him are doing any better and in most cases much worse in a small sample. The only comparable is maybe Drew Burress but that’s been driven by a high BABIP. Lots of K’s as well. I don’t know what else you’d like to see out of him at this point. 

He’s on track. Comparable to other Twins prospects in their draft year. Showing the skills he was drafted for. The Twins are not slow at promotions. That was the Terry Ryan regime 15 years ago. He’s doing everything he needs to. He’s fine. even if he starts next year at A+ he’s fine and is still on track for a 75th percentile outcome of being up by next September. 

Catching may be the most difficult position to learn on the entire field.  Lackey looks very good, and we all expect him to be lights out great one day, but rush him?  It all depends on his performance next year and how quickly he learns, absorbs, grows, and matures.  Much of that depends on good instruction and smart advancement (challenges).  But I have high hopes for him.  I'd love to see him grow into the MLB next year, but I am not counting on it.

Since Zoll screwed up the trade deadline, we are likely going to lose Jeffers with nothing in return in a season where we were really never going to succeed (even if we made it to the playoffs as a WC, we would likely not go far).  That is management malfeasance.  Dang it!  We might get something back with the QO, but I hear that the Twins are afraid to offer it for the fear that he might accept it!  Such stupidity.  Just piling unforced errors on top of errors!

Just simply NO to 2027. Perhaps a call up in September, IF there is no other player for which a September call up makes more sense. Likely there will be other players that fit that call up better.

On 9/4/2026 at 8:12 PM, Major League Ready said:

I am not sure why anyone thinks Jeffers is signing a short deal which I would consider to be two years or less.  Just not happening unless the Twins want to pay him very close to what he would get on a 4-year deal.  Anyone think that will happen?

Diaw and Lackey in 2028 should be a great Tandem.  2027 will probably not be great at the C position.   

If a QO is attached to him, he might not be able to get a 3 year deal or the dollars he's looking for. We've seen the suppressed offers to those free agents previously which is why those 2-3 year deals with opt outs after each year have become so popular. 

I could see him deciding the QO is the best financial decision for himself at the end of the day. 

1 hour ago, NYCTK said:

If a QO is attached to him, he might not be able to get a 3 year deal or the dollars he's looking for. We've seen the suppressed offers to those free agents previously which is why those 2-3 year deals with opt outs after each year have become so popular. 

I could see him deciding the QO is the best financial decision for himself at the end of the day. 

It's possible I guess it seems unlikely the Yankees would let the QO get in the way.  What is Jeffers / Jeffer's agent thinking and I would guess they believe a big payday is coming.  Perhaps more importantly, will the Twins make a QO?

17 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

It's possible I guess it seems unlikely the Yankees would let the QO get in the way.  What is Jeffers / Jeffer's agent thinking and I would guess they believe a big payday is coming.  Perhaps more importantly, will the Twins make a QO?

They would if they're not idiots. But that's not the case seemingly.