Seth's Preliminary Top 50 Twins Prospects: Part 5: (16-20)

Brian Navaretto throwing out well over 50% of base stealers is extremely impressive and seems near impossible after watching Kurt Suzuki throw out approximately 0% of base stealers over the last two years. And with that arm, Navaretto must almost have a floor of a backup big league catcher, right?

I think that would be a fair statement, though there is a lot of development he needs to do offensively as well as defensively.

Sooner or later, don't the Twins have to slow Navaretto down and let him spend a second year at a level to let his bat catch up a bit?1

I would agree with that, but I'm always a proponent of that. 

Others asked why I have Navarreto and Turner as high as I do. Part of it is their size. Part of it is seeing some offensive potential. And, my personal opinion is that to see that potential, they need to get an extra half-season at a level. I've written on a few occasions that I'd like to see Turner get another half-season in Chattanooga in 2016. Same thing with Navarreto. I'd like to see him get another half season in Cedar Rapids. Both hit better in the 2nd half than they did early in the season.

Neither will be a great hitter, most likely, but if they can be near-.700 OPS guys and play the kind of defense they can play, that's pretty valuable. Will that happen? No way to know, but I love both upsides. 

And, I guess if I were to make one other statement, or acknowledge one mistake, it's probably that there is so much separation in ranking between these two and Garver. When I come up with my final rankings, I would guess these two will stay pretty close to where they are, but Garver will move up a little bit. 

Yep.  I'd like to hear more of Seth's rationale for this placement of Navaretto in the top 20. MLB.com doesn't even have him in their Twins Top 30. Are there MiLB coaches or Twins management sources pushing this idea?  What stood out in what Navarretto accomplished in 2015 that Jonathan Mayo, et al, missed?  

 

And  mentioning a Perez comp in way of support of Navarretto's anointment to the top 20 is a little dangerous, even if it's only iterated relating their catching abilities. Salvi was OPSing at .732, in High A at age 20 (nearly 3 years younger than league average), vs. Navaretto's .537 OPS at A level (1.4 years younger than league average).

 

Seems more like the ceiling of a future defensively good-to-strong back-up catcher, not the floor.  Hope to be proven wrong on this.

Everyone has their personal rankings and has guys they are likely higher on then most... or lower. I guess I don't look at other rankings when I come up with mine. As noted, these are all subject to change when I come up with my final rankings in the Prospect Handbook. 

I haven't really talked to anyone associated with the Twins about these rankings. I've talked to some about some of the players, but not about how to rank them.

What am I looking for in a catcher? #1 - Defense. I think that's the most important thing a catcher can do for his team. Both Turner and Navarreto are terrific. Tools-wise, Navarreto has good size, strength and a powerful arm. He's working on calling games, and he'll get better at blocking, but those are the tools I look for defensively. Yes, I would like to see more offense, but again, he's got the size. He's got decent speed, especially for a catcher. He hasn't shown it yet, but he has tremendous power potential. Maybe I'm biased some by the monstrous home run I saw him hit off of JO Berrios in spring training. Obviously a pretty small sample size (1 AB), but it does speak to his potential. 

The Salvador Perez comp is based on size and defense, and offensive potential. It doesn't mean he will get there, and it certainly doesn't mean he'll be an All Star by 23. I frankly don't care if it takes him til 25-26 to get to the big leagues. For me, comps are about potential, not about age-to-level and stuff like that. What 'could' he become... Navarreto may never get to AA. No way to know. But with his defense, I think he's got a good chance to get to the big leagues.

But mainly, just my personal opinion.

If my California math is correct, Seth,

 

Jorge needs to be added to the 40-man this fall, correct?  If not, is he likely to be gone?

He is eligible this year for the Rule 5 draft if he isn't protected. For me, I don't think he's a given to be added, though he is one of 2-3 that I think are borderline adds. I just don't think he'd stick with a big league roster for the season, so I don't think he'd be taken... 

Regarding Felix Jorge, I'm also puzzled that two qualified rankers can come to such widely divergent perspectives within a one-year time span.  Mayo had Jorge at #11 in his 2014 list- for 2015, he's not even in his Twins Top 30.  Seth sees the same results and moves Jorge up from #19 to #16. Any rationale for these two diametrically opposed conclusions? 

He wasn't in my Top 30 coming into 2015 either. He dropped out of my rankings (and most rankings) after his 2014 season. But he pitched his way back in in 2015. 

I'm not arguing with you on this point. I myself questioned the jump in Navarreto's ranking upthread and pointed out how far ahead Perez was of Navarreto at the same age. Should guys that project as backup catchers ever be in an organization's Top 20? 

 

Frankly, the Twins probably should have looked more seriously into converting Butera when they had him, and they should seriusly think about converting Navarreto now.

Fair point, but what if he does take the step in 2016 and people think that he can be more than a backup catcher.

Also, what's wrong with being a backup catcher. If the Twins would have moved Butera to the bullpen, it's pretty likely he never makes the big leagues. As a backup catcher, and one of the smartest baseball players around, he's now over 5 years of MLB service time. He's considered valuable by MLB Insiders, front offices, players, coaches, etc. That's nothing to scoff at, even though  many chose to do so.

But what if that's all there is? In terms of prospects. I'm kind-of with mikelink45 to this point in the rankings. Not too much to get excited about here, even most of the lotto tickets, between 16-50 on this list. Lots of guys moving backwards, most only projecting as bench/back-up/utility MLB players or low-leverage RPs- but as mikelin45 also hinted at-

 

How much should we expect from this group, anyway?, and,

How good really is the Twins farm system in terms of prospect depth beyond the 6 or 7 Top 100 types?

I would say that the top 2-3 prospects are what makes a prospect ranking for an organization. The Twins have 6-7 guys that will have them ranked pretty high even with the 'graduations' of Rosario, May, Duffey and Sano. 

How I look at rankings... 

You look for one of the top 2 to become an All-Star caliber player.

You hope that guys in that 3-7 range can become regular starters in the lineup or 3-5 starters.

You hope that guys in that 8-15 range can become quality role players, maybe bullpen arms, etc.

You hope that guys in the 16+ range can get to the big leaguers and help in any way.

Of course, there's so much wiggle room in all of that. I mean, guys like Blankenhorn, Diaz, Cabbage simply don't have enough track record and not quite enough  prospect hype to be Top 10-12 guys right now but clearly do have the potential to someday breakout and become a Top 10 guy. I just need something more.

Consider Jorge Polanco signed out of the DR as a mid-sized signing bonus, good defense, questionable bat prospect. Sano was my #3 Twins prospect right away after the Twins signed him. Polanco wasn't in the top 30. Polanco took two seasons in the GCL and didn't hit until he moved to Elizabethton, and then proved that was real in Cedar Rapids. Now he's easily a top 10 guy and someone who, in the right situation, can be a big league regular. 

Prospect rankings are for fun discussion and learning about players and recognizing them. But they're subject to change year over year as players develop. That's the beauty of it!

Just to look at my 2015 Twins Prospects, #s 16-20.

#16 - Tyler Duffey - knowing what we know now, and if he had only pitched 49 innings with the Twins, where would he rank now?

#17 - Chih-Wei Hu - he took another step forward in 2015 and was traded for a solid late-innings reliever.

#18 - Jake Reed - he took a step back, but he still is top 25 for me and is a good candidate to be successful in the Twins bullpen at some point in the next couple of years.

#19 - Stuart Turner - Defense matters... I still think there's some offensive potential in there. He had a solid second half... with graduations and such, he stayed the same for me. 2016 will be a big season for him to determine whether he goes up the list, or drops a bit.

#20 - JR Graham - he was a Rule 5 guy who was clocked at 95+ despite it being in his return from injury with the Braves. Obviously he's not a 'prospect' anymore, but given a little time, he can be a solid 6th/7th inning type of guy. 

2014 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Amaurys Minier, 17.) Kennys Vargas, 18.) Ryan Eades, 19.) Felix Jorge, 20.) Niko Goodrum.

2013 #s 16-20 --> 16.) AB Walker, 17.) Chris Herrmann, 18.) BJ Hermsen, 19.) Jorge Polanco, 20.) Luke Bard

2012 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Manuel Soliman, 17.) Levi Michael, 18.) Max Kepler, 19.) Niko Goodrum, 20.) Hudson Boyd

2011 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Max Kepler, 17.) Eddie Rosario, 18.) BJ Hermsen, 19.) Danny Ortiz, 20.) Bobby Lanigan

2010 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Jeff Manship, 17.) Tyler Robertson, 18.) Alex Burnett, 19.) Blayne Weller, 20.) Billy Bullock

2009 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Shooter Hunt, 17.) Joe Benson, 18.) Mike McCardell, 19.) Steve Tolleson, 20.) Brian Duensing

2008 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Jason Pridie, 17.) Erik Lis, 18.) Deibinson Romero, 19.) Nick Blackburn, 20.) Jay Rainville.

2007 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Kyle Waldrop, 17.) Brock Peterson, 18.) Jay Rainville, 19.) Trevor Plouffe, 20.) Joe Benson

2006 #s 16-20 --> 16.) Kyle Waldrop, 17.) Boof Bonser, 18.) Matt Garza, 19.) Juan Portes, 20.) David Winfree

There are some really good players... Duensing, Plouffe, Garza, 

There are some guys who got a cup of coffee.

There are some guys who "Roger" might be the only one who remembers. 

That's the nature of these lists... It's what makes them fun.