You're The Minnesota Twins GM! Plotting My Offseason: A Flurry of Moves

Grichuck turned down a 6 million option. I doubt he is coming here for 5. Topa made 1.25. I doubt that he would make less than that even though he was injured last year. The arbitration process does not seem to work that way.  2 c prospects for 10 million in salary relief seems like an overpay for the receiving team . The pre hype prospect for Paddack with no money going out is another dream. The team would do your trades and signings in a heartbeat, but the reality of the players or other teams doing it is quite the stretch 

The Dodger's trade embedded in this blueprint I find very interesting.

Does anyone who knows the Dodgers well think this has any viability?

1 hour ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I like the value of Rushing and the reliever. I also really like the idea of getting Walker. I’m not certain we would sign someone who turned down the qo and give up the draft capital though. Agreed that 1b is a definite need though 

The third round draft pick doesn’t seem like a steep price but Drew n a half season get MLB. Com top 30 status, 35+ FV from fangraphs.  Winokeur is a top 30 prospect, 40 FV, Povich and Steer made it to the major leagues. Alas, 2025 is an odd year, they will get the supplemental first round. They would have to give up their second rounder. Thats Canterino, Soulare, Jeffers, Keashall, Prielipp, among a couple others. So they are finding talent. Walker is getting up in years but power is the last thing to age out.  Still, for half the money the could resign Santana  and still have a promising player 

I think Duran and Castro for Rushing is the best proposal likely to be done. Dodgers need to replace Grateral and Ki'ke Hernandez and we need a catcher, although my priority is to trade prospect capital for Casas and his 40 HR potential because free agent money for Walker isn't going to happen. Yes, I would trade Lopez and Duran for Casas, Teel, and Rafaela. I think Boston will miss out on Crochet and won't pay for the few top free agent pitchers making this deal more likely.

6 hours ago, SteveLV said:

The Dodger's trade embedded in this blueprint I find very interesting.

Does anyone who knows the Dodgers well think this has any viability?

Would you give up your top prospect and  a stud left handed reliever with 2 years of control for 3 years of Duran and one of Castro? That could be a lopsided  trade. They might trade one of their other near ready catchers, but not Rushing 

2 hours ago, gmwannabe said:

I think Duran and Castro for Rushing is the best proposal likely to be done. Dodgers need to replace Grateral and Ki'ke Hernandez and we need a catcher, although my priority is to trade prospect capital for Casas and his 40 HR potential because free agent money for Walker isn't going to happen. Yes, I would trade Lopez and Duran for Casas, Teel, and Rafaela. I think Boston will miss out on Crochet and won't pay for the few top free agent pitchers making this deal more likely.

They were interested in Montgomery last year and he is available in a trade

Rushing bat looks too good to be a catcher. I would end up moving him to 1st base and would pass on Walker for $20M. I honestly wouldn't feel bad bringing back Carlos Santana for another year.

I would love it if we could get Walker or someone with pop to play first base, I just don't see it happening. My guess is, if everyone is healthy coming into spring, it'll be a platoon of Miranda and Julien at first, with someone like Keaschal as backup. An IF of....

1b - Miranda, Julien

2b - Lee, Castro

SS - Correa, Lee

3b - Lewis, Miranda, Lee

Utility - Castro, Keaschal, Eeles

Doesn't look to bad but if we don't upgrade first base than we need to upgrade the OF somehow. I know we can't afford to do both, but we need either an offensive first baseman, or a good RH outfielder, preferably who can play a good athletic center field.

It's a creative and fairly bold plan. 

Do we really see Christian Walker getting 3/$60M? The defense is quality and he's been a consistent hitter, but he's also seen a decline in his bWAR each year for the last 3 and will turn 34 next season. If there's really a monetary crunch from the collapse of the RSNs league wide this offseason, he looks exactly like the sort of player who won't get a big deal. I guess we'll see on him? 

It's interesting that you have the Twins grabbing 2 players from the D-Backs.

I'd be worried about the bullpen under this design, as it relies on Stewart, Topa, and Moran all being healthy and betting on more than one of them being healthy seems to be unlikely. That said, Varland and Alcala are both capable of handling higher leverage situations, so it's not like the back-end is going to be bare. But I'd have to bet that no more than 1 of the three is healthy out of spring training/makes it through april, which means dipping down into the depth early in the year.

I'm not sure we can pry Rushing loose without giving up more, but we do have the prospect capital to add to this deal without needing to drop in one of our top ranked guys. he certainly would be a good fit.

I think having Helman and Kiersey on the bench kind of insures the bench doesn't hit enough. If we think Helman could fill in at CF well enough I'd be more interested in having Julian on the opening day roster. I still think he can hit. Not so sure about Kiersey.

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

That's probably directly from MLBTR's free agent predictions.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/2024-25-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html

Yeah, so it falls in on the articles assumptions, which is a fair place to work from when doing this kind of exercise. I just have trouble seeing this kind of contract, especially when they cite contracts that were...bad, as precedent. (Abreu's was awful, Encarnacion & Santana's were both below par on average). If there's any kind of market contraction this year, which seems likely...why would any team sign up for a 3 year deal at $20M per on a player who has shown signs of decline? (I'm also finding it impossible to believe that teams are going to be throwing 5 years and a $25M AAV at Pete Alonso, who is 5 years younger than Walker, but seen a similar decline in bWAR from 2022 to 2024...but MLB teams have been stupid before)

I'm intrigued by a player like Walker, but not at $20M AAV for 3 years at his age, no mater how many people say he's underappreciated.

I think it's a pretty good plan.  Certainly within reason.  But of course, I have a couple of things I would do differently.

First, regarding the trade with the Dodgers.  The Dodgers are my 2nd favorite team behind the Twins, so I think I'm qualified to share my thoughts on this trade.  The Dodgers just won the World Series and they did it with their closer the last 3 years, Evan Phillips, left OFF the World Series roster.  The Dodgers have a HUGE need for a closer and are probably very interested in getting a productive Utility Player like Castro to move on from the Chris Taylor types on their bench.  That trade in my plan is a go!!

I trade SWR and Jorge Alcala to to the Orioles for Jordan Westburg.  I'm not sure what BBTV would have for a deal like that, but the Orioles rotation is in a shambles even if they bring Burnes back and even with their closer returning from TJ surgery they could use a depth arm like Alcala.  The Orioles are over flowing with prospects and don't have enough open spots to play them all.  If a top 10 prospect like #8 outfielder Gabe Gonzalez or Marco Raya needed to be included, I'd do it.  They may even be interested in someone like Paddack at the price.

I take ALL $7.5 million of my International Signing Budget and make a STRONG bid for Roki Sasaki.  Here, the Twins are swapping out Paddack's $7.5 million to add a 23 year old fire baller who hits 100 mph and has the requisite breaking stuff to be a very good SP.

Finally, I trade Vasquez, Larnach and Marco Raya/Gabe Gonzalez to the Marlins for either Sandy Alcantara ($10 million) or Jesus Luzardo ($6 million).  By including Larnach and Raya, the Marlins make the trade by accepting all $10 million of Vasquez's salary.  If the pitcher coming back is Alcantara, it's practically a wash salary wise.

I sign Tyler O'Neill (30 y/o) as a FA for 2-years, $28 million.  I sign Caleb Ferguson  (28 y/o) for 1 yr. $1.50 million.  I sign Jose Iglesias SS/2B/3B for 1 yr. 1.7 million.  

Here's my team and it's salary structure:

LINEUP:  $74.28 Million 

C    Jeffers  $4.7  1B Royce Lewis $2.3  2B  B. Lee $0.76 3B  Jordan Westburg $0.76  SS Correa $36

LF   O'Neill $14  CF  Buxton $15  RF  M. Wallner  $0.76  DH  Miranda $0.76/Rushing

BENCH:  $3.98 Million

Iglesias 2B/SS/3B  $1.7  D. Keirsey $0.76  D. Rushing $0.76  A. Martin $0.76

STARTING ROTATION:   $45.1  (averaging the difference of Alcantara/Luzardo at $8 million). 

P. Lopez  $21.5   (Alcantara $10 or J. Luzardo $6) J. Ryan  $3.8  B. Ober $4.3 R. Sasaki $7.5  (Festa $0.76)

BULLPEN:  $10.33

Jax $2.6  C. Ferguson $1.5  Vesia $1.9  Sands $0.76  Topa $1.25  Varland $0.76  Stewart $0.80         (Festa, Canterino, Moran, Funderburk, Prielipp, Henriquez all at $0.76)

TOTAL PAYROLL:  $133.69    ($121.49 if I subtract O'Neill for Adam Duval).

A Couple of Notes:  I'm a little over budget at nearly $134 million but I have to believe the Pohlad Family would understand that stretching the budget a little to have a team ready to contend in a competitive A.L. Central for 2025 and beyond will maximize their sale price. 

If this team is spinning its wheels in July and August in 4th place they are going to have a much harder time getting what they want.  Spending $8-9 million more for their last season of ownership isn't and shouldn't be a deal breaker.   To bring it more into line I could swap out O'Neill for Adam Duval 1 year, $1.80 million.

The Lineup is power laden and the defense with O'Neill in LF and Iglesias rotating between SS/2B/3B helps the infield.  We don't over spend for a 1B.  With the acquisition of Westburg, we simply move Lewis over.  Miranda can back up both 1B & 3B and without a full time DH, Rocco can rotate people through.  Kiersey can get a little more of an opportunity to show what he can do before E-Rod arrives about mid-season.  

The starting rotation is LOADED with Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Sasaki and either Alcantara or Luzardo.  Festa could be in the pen throwing long relief with spot starts to protect his innings and Matthews is gaining additional seasoning at St. Paul and also available for spot starts.

The biggest worry is the BP with the trade of Duran.  Jax takes over as closer but Ferguson and Vesia add two solid LH options.  You also have Funderburk, Canterino, Moran, Prielipp, Henriquez and Headrick as depth.  Maybe you make a bigger bullpen signing if you go with Duval over O'Neill.  

The lineup doesn't have a true leadoff guy, but with Lewis, Correa, O'Neill, Wallner and Westburg there is plenty of power.  Maybe Buxton moves back to leadoff.  And Rushing should get a look at DH'ing some games he doesn't catch.  He's got a bat that will play.     

This would be MY plan.  I stuck with certain things from Eric's and also think his plan is good as well.  My biggest difference is 1B where I go with Lewis and the starting rotation where I go hard for Sasaki and make a deal with Miami for Alcantara or Luzardo.  

I also like the alternatives that JD-Twins proposed.  There are certainly things the Twins COULD and SHOULD be considering.  Some things (usning all our International Money to sign Sasaki) may be a long shot and would be up to the players preference.  Others, like signing O'Neill or being aggressive on a trade for Alcantara or Luzardo is something the Twins FO could and probably should commit to.