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In a dread-inducing development for suburban mothers across Minnesota, veteran outfielder Max Kepler has officially parted ways with the Twins, signing a one-year, $10-million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies. The long-time Twin joins what is arguably the deepest and most formidable lineup in MLB, alongside Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, and others. Kepler's departure will mostly be felt in the field. He was consistently one of MLB's best defensive right fielders, evidenced by the now-31-year-old netting 66 Outs Above Average (OAA) over 10 seasons with Minnesota. That said, his presence will also be missed at the plate, as (despite his shortcomings) he hit .237/.318/.429 with a marginally above-average 102 OPS+ over 3,761 plate appearances during his Twins career
Where Kepler will particularly be missed is having his bat in the lineup against right-handed pitchers. Over 3,170 plate appearances against opposite-handed pitchers, he hit .243/.326/.452, with 679 hits, 134 home runs, and a 108 tOPS+ (which compares a player's OPS for splits relative to their total OPS). Operating as a cog in the lineup against right-handed pitching, Kepler generated above-average numbers over his career, often operating out of the same spot in the lineup.
Over the past three seasons, Kepler netted 126 starts in the cleanup spot, the most on the team during that stretch. He also functioned as the team's primary cleanup hitter last season, generating 43 starts in 89 total games played. Manager Rocco Baldelli would slot Kepler into the cleanup spot in the lineup exclusively against right-handed pitchers. The likely rationale was for the wily veteran to balance the lineup and utilize his contact-skilled profile to move high on-base percentage hitters like Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis over from one base to another and capitalize on opportunities where they were in scoring position.
Despite not fitting the mold of traditional cleanup hitters of the past like David Ortiz and Edwin Encarnacion, Kepler performed well in the role (particularly early in the season) and will be a missed offensive contributor. Entering the 2025 season, the Twins will need to find a new bat to absorb most of the opportunities in the cleanup spot. Luckily, the club has numerous options who could fulfill the role.
Kepler's final game started at cleanup occurred on Jul. 24, (fittingly) against the Phillies. Here is who received opportunities at the four-hole from Jul. 25 through Sept. 29:
- Matt Wallner - 19 starts
- Royce Lewis - 13 starts
- José Miranda - 10 starts
- Carlos Santana - eight starts
- Trevor Larnach - five starts
- Ryan Jeffers - four starts
- Byron Buxton - one start
- Edouard Julien - one start
Wallner, Lewis, and Miranda each started double-digit games at the four-hole, with the amalgamation of Santana, Larnach, Jeffers, Buxton, and Julien sprinkled in on occasion. Looking at this collection of players, two could seamlessly take over Kepler's role: Wallner and Larnach. At first glance, Wallner is the perfect candidate to receive the majority of starts out of the cleanup spot. Being a daunting, power-skilled bat, Wallner fits the archetype. That said, Wallner fitting that bill could work against him. Baldelli seemingly slotted Kepler into the cleanup spot because he could balance the lineup and put the ball into play as a contact-skilled left-handed bat, not because he had game-changing power.
Assuming Baldelli still values that type of contributor, there is reason to believe Larnach (who more closely fits Kepler's player mold) could receive more opportunity out of the four-hole than Wallner to begin the season. Twins second-ranked prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez could eventually take on Kepler's role in a more lasting fashion by midsummer. Still, slotting the 21-year-old into that role is merely wishcasting, until he can prove to be a sustainably productive contributor at the major-league level.
With Santana no longer an option, there is reason to suspect Miranda (slated to become the team's primary first baseman after Santana's departure), Lewis, Jeffers, and Buxton will also receive more starts at the cleanup spot. Nevertheless, the four-hole will be a revolving door of players, with Wallner and Larnach likely receiving the bulk of opportunities against right-handed hitters and Miranda, Lewis, Jeffers, and Buxton welcoming the occasional start against left-handed starting pitchers to begin next season.
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