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    What Should the Twins Do with Trevor Larnach?

    Cody Christie

    By Cody Christie

    Trevor Larnach, a former first-round pick, has been hitting well at Triple-A, but he's fallen significantly on the team's depth chart. So, what's next for the player that was once considered a Top 100 prospect?

    Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports

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    The Twins drafted Trevor Larnach with the 20th overall pick in the first round of the 2018 MLB Draft. He was coming off a tremendous college career where he posted a 1.116 OPS during his junior season, along with helping Oregon State to the College World Series title. Minnesota's current front office has preferred drafting powerful college bats, and Larnach fits that mold. Larnach's future outlook with the team is cloudy five years into his professional career. 

    Larnach will turn 27 this winter, and he's played 180 games at the big-league level. There have been flashes of the power hitter the Twins drafted, but his overall performance has been underwhelming. In 669 plate appearances, he has hit .223/315/.380 (.695) with 31 doubles, three triples, and 18 home runs. His 94 OPS+ is below league average, and he's posted a 228-to-73 strikeout-to-walk ratio. The Twins hoped for more from Larnach, especially entering the 2023 season. 

    Multiple Twins players began the year on the injured list, which created a spot on the Opening Day roster for Larnach. In the season's first month, he hit .242/.354/.390 (.744) with seven extra-base hits in 28 games. The Twins sent him to Triple-A at the beginning of May, and he proceeded to go 7-for-14 with two doubles and two home runs before being called back up to Minnesota. He'd bounce back and forth throughout the season, but he's been in St. Paul since the end of July with seemingly no room for him on the big-league roster. 

    Since his most recent demotion (33 games), Larnach has posted a .907 OPS with eight doubles, one triple, and six home runs. St. Paul's hitting environment is a little different than the big-league level, and one would expect him to hit well with his level of professional experience. However, some areas have caused him struggles since being drafted, including hitting versus offspeed pitches and finding consistent success against left-handed pitchers. 

    Larnach has posted a .856 OPS versus right-handed pitchers for the season while being held to a .596 OPS against southpaws. Lefties have struck him out in 32 of his 79 at-bats this season, and only four of his 14 hits have been for extra bases when facing same-sided pitchers. The Twins have done a good job limiting his exposure to tough left-handed starters, but that also determines the value he can provide to the big-league club. 

    He struggled with offspeed pitches as he moved up the organizational ladder. Larnach kills fastballs and has provided 10.8 runs above average when facing fastballs throughout his big-league career. Against all other breaking pitches, he has negative runs above average, including -7.8 against change-ups and -3.2 against sliders. Facing a lower level of competition at Triple-A likely won't help him improve against off-speed pitches, and it's one of the reasons he continues to find success at that level. 

    Entering the 2024 season, Larnach has one option year remaining, but he has little left to prove at the Triple-A level. The Twins will have some decisions with the team's outfield for 2024. Max Kepler has a $10 million team option for 2024, and he's provided over $17 million in value this season. Matt Wallner has gone through his share of ups and downs, but he surpassed Larnach on the team's depth chart. Other players, including Gilberto Celestino, Nick Gordon, and Austin Martin, might fit into the team's corner outfield plans. 

    The Twins' front office values depth, which might be what Larnach represents at this point in his career. Last winter, there were conversations about the Twins being willing to trade from their corner outfield depth, and that might come to fruition again this offseason. Larnach will keep swinging away at Triple-A while waiting for another opportunity to prove he can be a full-time player. 

    What role will Larnach fit on the Twins next season? Is he more than a platoon outfielder? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

    Cody Christie is a Twins writer and content contributor. His writing can be found exclusively at Twins Daily and his voice can be heard on radio stations throughout the Upper Midwest. Outside of the Twins, he is a father, high school teacher, and avid runner.
    Follow Cody Christie on Twitter: nodaktwinsfan

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    Featured Comments

    jorgenswest

    jorgenswest 10,637

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    It is getting crowded but I don’t think they add Keirsey. At 26 his wRC+ at AA (120) and AAA(109) is pretty common. His experience may have allowed him to take better advantage of the tiny robo-strike zones to increase his walk rate.

    I think many teams already have a guy with his profile in their system. The Twins really had two in he and Stevenson. There is another Stevenson in the Phillies system. Cal is age 26, plays centerfield, has a good walk rate and OBP. His wRC+ is 123. He has had a couple of cups of coffee in the major leagues. It all looks good until you realize Jake Cave was with that AAA team also and had a wRC+ of 171. Stevenson was in the majors with Oakland and in AAA with them. In a short stint he  had a wRC+ of 141 in AAA. On that team there are a handful of guys better and J.J. Bleday who has the same profile put up better numbers. Bleday was a prospect a few years back with the Marlins and did get a chance this year with the A’s with pretty poor results.

    I think the run scoring context of the upper minors this year gives a false impression of players particularly this that are older. There are a lot of Keirsey’s out there and I wouldn’t worry about losing him in a rule 5 draft. There will be a Cal Stevenson to pick up as a minor league free agent.

    stringer bell

    stringer bell 25,881

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    I thought that Larnach was the superior option to Wallner, but Trevor fell on hard times with the Twins. Wallner came on and provided power that (so far) Trevor has been unable to produce. 
     

    As many have pointed out, having depth is desirable, but having Trevor go back to AAA isn’t great for his career. He’ll probably get another chance and it may be his last with the Twins. If the team thinks they have other guys to step up perhaps they will try to trade Larnach. 

    DocBauer

    DocBauer 22,263

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Those two and what? Because combined they aren't worth much of anything right now. They need to be healthy and effective. 

    Yes and no.

    I simply tossed them out without having an exact destination or return. 

    Think about a deal for Odorizzi for a milb SS that might have been a salary dump.

    Ryan was acquired from TB for a half season of a DH. And they are known to look at talent and potential, and often win trades. They might salivate over a couple former top prospects just waiting for a full season of opportunity and another big bat who just needs to get healthy again.

    And maybe they aren't the target. Maybe the A's are looking to do the same thing as the Ray's and bring in young, cheap talent and make it work.

    I'm just spitballing. You say selling low. You might be right. And I don't know if the Twins are even selling. But some teams like buying low with potential.  And there is room for a ton of potential here.  And that's all I'm conjecturing.

    Hashim

    Hashim 91

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    16 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

    Raya is 21 in A+ with 59 innings he probably isn't a real solution next year, Festa has 90 innings and a 4.39 ERA in AA, again probably not a solution other than a few starts. Paddock is coming off TJ surgury and will be on a innings limit. So in reality there isn't much depth after the starting 4.

     

    Raya is in AA and Festa is in AAA. Look at Atlanta and how they develop young pitchers and call them up from AA/AAA. 

    Doctor Wu

    Doctor Wu 4,337

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    21 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

    Maybe he is the next Rooker or Raley - he needs a true chance to play through the challenges.  He is not going to be part of the Twins OF based on the names and numbers. 

    Brent Rooker 28

    2023 28 OAK AL 121 468 410 53 99 18 1 24 58 3 0 45 151 .241 .327 .466 .793 122 191 11 9 0 4 1 D79H

    Luke Raley 28

    023 28 TBR AL 114 400 351 54 87 23 3 18 48 14 3 28 127 .248 .333 .484 .818 124 170 2 18 1 2 0 937DH/81

     

    Very good point. At this point, I just don't see any room for Larnach on the Twins. But I also don't see that he has much, if any, trade value either. Mostly likely, he's cast aside and yeah, he could indeed become the next Rooker or Raley if given the chance. 

    arby58

    arby58 3,616

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 9/13/2023 at 8:33 AM, Nashvilletwin said:

    For crying out loud, the Twins spent $11MM on Joey Gallo and gave him hundreds of ABs while Larnach has festered in St.Paul. Larnach must be shaking his head wondering how much better he’d be if he had those major league ABs (and how much more valuable he might be for the Twins in the trade market - his value couldn’t really be any lower now.). 

    He had 162 at bats with the Twins this year, which worked out to a WAR of 0.0. More at bats doesn't necessarily translate into better results. He's had 582 at bats in his career, and his OPS+ is 94 - which suggests he is what he is, a fringe MLB player. He's not a kid anymore either. 

    LA Vikes Fan

    LA Vikes Fan 8,116

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    21 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Who's trading an elite pitching prospect for Larnach? No one. AAA isn't full of OF options either. 

    I don't think anyone is going to trade an "elite" pitching prospect for Larnach. That's why my view is that you test the market to see if there's someone that you think has value that can be unlocked. Two good examples are the Ryan trade and the trade of Spencer Steer. Neither was considered an elite prospect but the Twins and Reds saw something and now both appear to above average MLB players. Target that kind of player at the AA or A level on a poor team who is rebuilding their offense. Rooker was never going to be a starter on a good team. His only chance was to go to a bad team and get an opportunity. The jury is still out on him but he might be a decent to good MLB hitter. I see Larnach in the same way. He could be a good MLB hitter but only if he gets a full year of playing very day in the Bigs.  The Twins are in a contention window and can only do that with either Larnach or Wallner. We've chosen Wallner. Perhaps the As, Royals, Rockies, etc. see Larnach's potential the same way and would be willing to gamble a 20-30 prospect in the low minors to get a guy who will be controllable for a few years and isn't even arb eligible so he'll be cheap for those few years. The Twins get a development prospect that may pan out but may not. That's the kind of trade I'm advocating.

    If we can't get that, keep him for depth.  

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,013

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    7 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    Yeah no clue whether this version of Martin is the "real," version. Hopefully it is, I just wouldn't be penciling him as a starter in LF to begin next year. 

    At some point you have to trust and try rookies. Seems to work for other teams. I'd prefer him over Luplow or Stevenson or Gallo...and most other mediocre veterans. We KNOW those guys are mediocre (or worse). 

    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 6,207

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    On 9/13/2023 at 8:38 AM, Supfin99 said:

    Why do the Twins need to acquire a pitcher for next season?  They have Lopez, Ryan, Paddock, Ober and Varland already penciled in. Festa and Marco Rays will provide depth as well as Woods-Richardson. 

    Health & Effectiveness. Without those, more depth is needed than 3 additional minor league arms.

    Not necessarily picked up via trade - difficult to do unless trading guys like Arraez.

    Larnach - Miranda - Celestino …….withering away in AAA ……..gotta move them or cut bait, IMO.

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,013

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

    Health & Effectiveness. Without those, more depth is needed than 3 additional minor league arms.

    Not necessarily picked up via trade - difficult to do unless trading guys like Arraez.

    Larnach - Miranda - Celestino …….withering away in AAA ……..gotta move them or cut bait, IMO.

    Miranda is withering away? Wow. Celestino is 24 and been hurt. I really don't get how you can feel that way about those two who spent all of this year hurt (mostly).

    KirbyDome89

    KirbyDome89 6,082

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    Just now, Mike Sixel said:

    At some point you have to trust and try rookies. Seems to work for other teams. I'd prefer him over Luplow or Stevenson or Gallo...and most other mediocre veterans. We KNOW those guys are mediocre (or worse). 

    Same, obviously, I just don't think one hot month is enough to justify handing him a starting spot. He's cooled considerably, albeit in a smaller SS, this month vs. August. He wasn't impressive at all last year either. How much of that is injury, again, Idk. 

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,013

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    4 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

    Same, obviously, I just don't think one hot month is enough to justify handing him a starting spot. He's cooled considerably, albeit in a smaller SS, this month vs. August. He wasn't impressive at all last year either. How much of that is injury, again, Idk. 

    It's a fair position to hold. Unlike some on this board, you at least consider rookies an option.....

    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 6,207

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

    Miranda is withering away? Wow. Celestino is 24 and been hurt. I really don't get how you can feel that way about those two who spent all of this year hurt (mostly).

    Where do they fit in going forward…….you think Martin & Lee are players, correct? Where will Miranda play in a Twins Uniform? Who is he playing in front of next season? Same with Celestino - he’s a right handed bat with lesser skills than Castro. Larnach has been up & down for 3 years………as I’ve said before, love his look as a ball player & his pedigree prior to draft………if Kepler comes back (90%?) then I do not see a spot for him either in ‘24, even to try.

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,013

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

    1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

    Where do they fit in going forward…….you think Martin & Lee are players, correct? Where will Miranda play in a Twins Uniform? Who is he playing in front of next season? Same with Celestino - he’s a right handed bat with lesser skills than Castro. Larnach has been up & down for 3 years………as I’ve said before, love his look as a ball player & his pedigree prior to draft………if Kepler comes back (90%?) then I do not see a spot for him either in ‘24, even to try.

    I have no idea,  but that's different than "withering away." They need backups. They need AAA players that might be MLB players. I'll give you Larnach, which is why I didn't mention him, but those other two aren't 25 yet. They've been hurt. 

    JD-TWINS

    JD-TWINS 6,207

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

    I have no idea,  but that's different than "withering away." They need backups. They need AAA players that might be MLB players. I'll give you Larnach, which is why I didn't mention him, but those other two aren't 25 yet. They've been hurt. 

    So we differ on Celestino - just don’t see him evolving into a player we want. I have no crystal ball, so we’ll find out. Miranda - had some success in ‘22 - seemed to have played quite a few games in ‘23 to have been hurt most of the year……..I guess the shoulder lingered. When he did play, he didn’t play well. We’ll see with him as well.

    My withering away comment was intended for now & forward, don’t see these guys making it in our organization so we should let them have opportunities elsewhere to be fair. Trading for much value, unless with other young prospect types, seems slim.

    Guest

    Guest

  • Guests

    • Posted

    Coach him up, bigly.  It's too early to cut bait.  Larnach's current trade value is zip.  And too many young former Twins seem to have a remarkable amount of success after the Twins cast them off.

    Larnach has a hole in his swing.  His weaknesses can be coached.  Compare video of Larnach's swing in April-May with July-August.  Somebody's been in his ear about that leg kick.  He's still learning to shift his weight in lieu of the leg kick.  Nobody's going to make us an offer that accounts for Larnach's still-possible upside.  Coach him up!

    Guest

    Guest

  • Guests

    • Posted

    BTW, call it another Larnach hitting streak that won't sustain if you wish, but he's hitting over .400 since 28 July in St. Paul with power.  His SO rate is down, and more importantly Larnach's walks-to-strikeouts are 9-13.  Someone's gotten to him (I hope) about controlling the strike zone, pitch selection and quieting his head, keeping his hands back and hips in.  Don't quit on this kid yet.



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