Week in Review: Banged Up at the Break

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 7/8 through Sun, 7/14
***
Record Last Week: 3-3 (Overall: 54-42)
Run Differential Last Week: -4 (Overall: +47)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (4.5 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 91 | MIN 8, CWS 6: Twins Take Back-and-Forth Game in Extras
Game 92 | CWS 3, MIN 1: Offense Quiet in First Loss of Year to Sox
Game 93 | MIN 3, CWS 2: Lee, Correa Homer, Duran Slams Door
Game 94 | SF 7, MIN 1: Listless Defense and Missed Opportunities
Game 95 | MIN 4, SF 2: Santana's Homer, Strong Pitching Lift Twins
Game 96 | SF 3, MIN 2: Late Defensive Gaffes Lead to Walk-off Loss

NEWS & NOTES

After spending the minimum 15 days on the injured list due to right arm fatigue, Chris Paddack was activated on Monday and made his return to the mound. Josh Winder, who'd been called up a few days prior in place of David Festa, headed back to the minors to make room. Paddack made a pair of starts, yielding three earned runs over 10 innings.

On Thursday, the Twins placed Kyle Farmer on the injured list with a right shoulder strain, recalling Jair Camargo as a third catcher to fill in, which proved to be an odd decision as he never saw the field. On Sunday, the team moved José Miranda to the IL and called up Diego Castillo (the infielder) to offset their sparse positional depth with Farmer, Miranda (back) and Carlos Correa (heel) all unavailable over the weekend. Things were bad enough on Saturday that Christian Vázquez had to start at third base.

Hopefully it's just a minor issue for Miranda and the Twins are taking advantage of the All-Star break to get him some rest while missing minimal time. The fact that Castillo, and not Edouard Julien, was called up as interim replacement seems to hint at this. Miranda will be eligible to return next weekend. Pitcher Caleb Boushley was designated for assignment to make room on the 40-man roster for Castillo.

On Sunday, the first day of the MLB Draft took place, with the Twins making four selections: a trio of left-side collegiate infielders and a left-handed high school pitcher. They used their top pick Kaelen Culpepper, a highly touted SS/3B from Kansas State.

HIGHLIGHTS

Matt Wallner has made a huge impact in his return to the Twins lineup. He was crushing the ball over this past week, notching hits in five of six games on the way to a 7-for-21 stretch that included two home runs and two doubles. His OPS stood at .584 when he was sent down back in April after 13 games, and is now up to .824, with a 132 OPS+ that is in line with his outstanding mark as a rookie (139). A big and much-needed turnaround for the lefty slugger.

Correa wrapped up his All-Star first half in fitting fashion, notching six hits including a pair of homers in 17 at-bats. His .308 batting average ranks third in the AL and fifth in baseball as we reach the break. Some unfortunate health news will prevent Correa from participating in Tuesday's All-Star Game alongside Willi Castro, who was added as an injury replacement for Jose Altuve, but hopefully it won't prevent Correa from carrying his MVP-caliber production over into the second half.

Carlos Santana missed out on a second career ASG nod, but was deserving of consideration, which is amazing to say given how the 38-year-old's season started. He only managed three hits in his five games last week, but he also drew three walks, and one of those hits was a critical go-ahead homer off the foul pole in San Francisco on Saturday. Byron Buxton is another player enjoying an All-Star caliber first half and he closed it out with a heater: he was 6-for-13 last week with three doubles, although like several other Twins players, Buxton also seems to be a little banged up so the break comes at a good time.

The pitching staff deserves a lot of credit for helping the Twins avoid a losing record in a week where the short-handed offense was held to four or fewer runs in all but one game. Simeon Woods Richardson made it through only 4 ⅓ innings on Saturday but held the Giants to two runs with seven strikeouts, keeping the game close enough for Minnesota to squeak out a win. It's tough to overstate what crucial impact the righty has had; the Twins went 0-4 in Louie Varland's first four starts before replacing him with Woods Richardson, behind whom they've won 12 of 16. SWR doesn't always pitch brilliantly, but he does almost always pitch well enough to give the team a chance, as their .750 winning percentage in his starts indicates.

It was another strong week for the bullpen, led by a hugely encouraging showing from Jhoan Durán, who allowed one hit and no earned runs over three innings in four appearances, picking up two saves and a win. On Saturday in San Francisco, Durán appeared to have finally rediscovered his missing fastball velocity, flashing 104 MPH on the radar gun for the first time all year while mixing in several 103s and 102s. 

Durán was again supported by some quality work from Minnesota's other righty relievers, including Griffin Jax (4 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 5 K), Cole Sands (3.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 R, 4 K) and Jorge Alcalá (3.1 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 2 K). Overall, the Twins bullpen allowed five earned runs in 22 ⅓ innings (2.02 ERA) with 23 strikeouts and seven walks. Dating back to June 1st, Twins relievers have the sixth-highest Win Probability Added in the majors. It's an underrated unit that should hopefully get even better with Brock Stewart working his way back in the minors – he made a pair of rehab appearances at Triple-A last week.

LOWLIGHTS

As good as their right-handed bullpen arms have looked, the lefties have inspired significantly less confidence. In 7 ⅓ combined innings last week, Steven Okert, Caleb Thielbar and Kody Funderburk managed five strikeouts to go along with three walks, an HBP and two earned runs allowed. Both Thielbar and Funderburk have ERAs over five on the season, and Okert is at 5.79 since the end of May.

It's tough to trust any of these guys when the Twins have a matchup-based need, and there's little in the way of LHP options in the minors, making lefty relief help arguably the team's plainest need at the trade deadline.

The front office could also seek to add another starter, depending on their level of faith in Paddack, who got solid results in his return from the injured list but continued to show a lack of consistent juice in his arsenal. His fastball was frequently back down in the 90 MPH range on Sunday, suggesting that his brief time on the shelf wasn't fully effective in restoring his strength. 

With the trade deadline suddenly only a couple of weeks away, the Twins front office will feel some pressure to reach a conclusion on what they can realistically expect from Paddack down the stretch and into the postseason. At his best he looks like a playoff-caliber starter. He just hasn't been at his best that often, and he's pacing toward a career-high workload of around 150 innings.

Of course, Paddack and all of the other pitchers on the team will benefit from sharper defense being played behind them. It's been a recurring theme of late, and the Twins punctuated their first half with a display of sloppy fielding as multiple misplays contributed to San Francisco's walk-off hit on Sunday, aptly described by the Giants Twitter account as a "little league home run". Gotta clean it up.

TRENDING STORYLINE

The Twins were largely healthy throughout the first half, relative to past seasons, which has played a big role in their emergence as one of the best teams in the league. Unfortunately, the bad injury breaks began to mount in the home stretch leading up to the All-Star break.

Royce Lewis is already sidelined (again). Theoretically we should get an update on his status next weekend. Miranda is now on the IL with a lower back strain. Buxton sat out both Saturday and Sunday after a wall collision in San Francisco. And on Sunday, we got one final gut punch for good measure with the news that Correa is once again is dealing with plantar fasciitis, the very same issue that tanked his 2023 season (albeit now in a different foot, and reportedly less severe).

Needless to say, the Twins will need to navigate all of these situations with crucial players very carefully. I talked last week in this column about how my preference would've been to place Correa on the injured list following another HBP scare, so he could get off his feet and rest up for two weeks rather than participate in the road trip and All-Star break. I understand that's not such a simple premise, because the Twins need to prioritize winning each game and players want to play. But this development serves as another reminder as to why such precautions can be worth taking. 

Minnesota needs to be thinking big. They've got so much upside and potential with this team. And it hinges greatly on the continued availability and health of guys like Correa, who's been playing like an MVP most of the season, and Buxton, who's been playing like one lately with a .395/.432/.741 slash line in his past 22 games. 

Having these two on the field regularly in the second half will be crucial in addressing and correcting some of the aforementioned defensive issues that have plagued the Twins. 

LOOKING AHEAD

The All-Star break is here. The Twins will thankfully have lots of time to lay back and lick their wounds, with their next game not coming until Saturday when they open a brief two-game weekend series at home against the Brewers. Pitching probables have not yet been announced for that series, though if the Twins pick up where they left off, it'll be Bailey Ober and Pablo López leading Minnesota into the second half.

As a final note, Joe Mauer will be inducted into the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown next Sunday. If you're interested in some fun reading to celebrate the occasion, I put together an ebook featuring seven essays on his career and legacy, ranging from serious to silly. It's available here to download at any price of your choosing, including free. I'd love it if you grabbed a copy and let me know what you think! 

TUESDAY, JULY 16: MLB ALL-STAR GAME
SATURDAY, JULY 20: BREWERS @ TWINS
SUNDAY, JULY 21: BREWERS @ TWINS