Week in Review: Winning Out West

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/24 through Sun, 6/30
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 47-37)
Run Differential Last Week: +16 (Overall: +39)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (6.0 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 79 | ARI 5, MIN 4: Bad Breaks Late Lead to One-Run Loss
Game 80 | MIN 8, ARI 3: Miranda Leads Charge in Lopsided Win
Game 81 | MIN 13, ARI 6: Twins Steamroll D-backs in Festa's Debut
Game 82 | SEA 3, MIN 2: Defensive Miscues Prove Costly in Tight Game
Game 83 | MIN 5, SEA 1: Buxton Bashes, Backs Up López Excellence
Game 84 | MIN 5, SEA 3: Larnach's Homer Lifts Twins to Series Win

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NEWS & NOTES

We wondered last week if the Twins might choose to give Chris Paddack a break following his second straight alarming performance on the mound. Indeed they did, placing Paddack on the injured list on Tuesday with what they described as right arm fatigue. It's unclear how long Paddack might be sidelined, although it would be no surprise if he's out through the All-Star break. What matters most is ensuring he can be strong and healthy at the end of the season, and into the playoffs. 

In the meantime, Minnesota's top pitching prospect gets an audition. Following an interim bullpen stint from Ronny Henriquez, David Festa was called up to start Thursday's series finale in Arizona. Festa showed some positive signs and was awarded the win in his debut, despite giving up five earned runs in five innings. He should at least get a couple more chances to show what he can do.

HIGHLIGHTS

If Byron Buxton is truly rounding back into his top form, or something close to it, the league is in trouble. Buxton was the key difference-maker in Saturday night's win against Seattle, driving in four of the team's five runs. Three of those came on a monster home run to left-center, Buxton's fourth in five games. Days earlier he made key plays on the bases to keep rallies rolling in a win over the D-backs. For the week he was 8-for-19 with three homers and nine RBIs in five games. 

Buxton started the month of June on an 0-for-14 skid. Since then he has multiple hits in six of 17 games started, and is batting .343 with 10 extra-base hits. Importantly, his strikeout rate during this span is below 20%, which makes the success feel more sustainable than a fleeting hot streak. He struck out twice in 22 plate appearance last week.

From all appearances Buxton is feeling as good as he has in a long time. He's moving around well and no longer routinely wincing visibly after exerting himself. It was really encouraging to see Buxton spring up quickly after a somewhat scary wall collision in Arizona on Tuesday, no worse for the wear. The Twins are not only much more enjoyable to watch when Buck is doing his thing like this, but they can also be an extremely tough team to stop, as we've seen.

Buxton's emergence is bringing the Twins' star nucleus into full activation. Carlos Correa keeps on raking and taking great ABs; he went 7-for-17 this past week with three walks and just one strikeout. A scary moment unfolded on Thursday when Correa got hit by a pitch in the wrist and immediately pulled himself from the game, seemingly fearing a major injury, but X-rays thankfully came back negative. (Yet another example of the team's refreshingly improved fortune on the health front this season.) Correa was not only in the lineup the next day, but he hit a home run, his fifth in the month of June. His .311 batting average ranks fourth in the American League.

Royce Lewis, naturally, fell into a 1-for-25 slump shortly after bragging that he doesn't do the whole slumping thing, but he's still got an OPS above 1.000 for the season and is clearly a threat every time he steps into the box. Alongside these three, Minnesota continues to receive strong contributions from Willi Castro (8-for-25 with a double, triple and home run), Carlos Santana (8-for-25 with three doubles), and José Miranda (8-for-18 with two doubles, six RBIs and zero strikeouts). 

This has been arguably the best offense in baseball for a prolonged period, and credit is deserved for all involved. Since April 22nd, when they put an ugly 7-13 start behind them, the Twins are tied with the Yankees for most runs scored in the majors. Minnesota is at or near the top of the leaderboard in virtually every metric during that span, with an approach that is yielding both contact and power. They lead the American League in batting average in these 64 games, and have the fifth-lowest K-rate in the majors. On Sunday the Twins had a player homer in a franchise-record 19th consecutive game.

As long as they can stay mostly healthy, there's not much reason to think the Twins can't keep running up the score in the second half. Minnesota's lineup is deep and formidable, and they're only reaching new levels with Buxton finding himself at the plate, and Trevor Larnach's great swings finally starting to bear fruit. On top of that, they've got Brooks Lee and Matt Wallner knocking on the door rather aggressively in Triple-A. The offensive outlook for this club is blindingly bright.

In the rotation, Pablo López followed up his previous gem against Oakland with another sterling performance on Saturday, holding Seattle to one run in six innings with nine strikeouts. His ERA is back down below five. Bailey Ober posted the very same line one night earlier (6 IP, 1 ER, 9 K) and looks as locked in as he has all year. Joe Ryan struck out 10 with no walks allowed on Sunday, improving his K/BB ratio to a sensational 115-to-15 for the season. Twins starters lead the American League in strikeout rate at 24 percent.

In the bullpen, Jorge Alcalá is establishing himself as a huge bright spot. He gave up a tough-luck run and took the loss on Tuesday in Arizona, but Alcalá bounced back with scoreless innings on Friday and Saturday, striking out four. In 12 June appearances, the righty has allowed only two earned runs in 13 ⅔ innings (1.32 ERA), and he hasn't allowed a home run all year. Now that the Twins have fully committed to him in a one-inning role, Alcalá is blossoming, further dialing up his already impressive velocity. On Saturday night he registered a career-high 101.2 MPH on the gun.

LOWLIGHTS

In close games, you can't afford to miss on the little things, and that was the story yet again for the Twins, who lost their fifth and sixth consecutive one-run games in the series openers against Arizona and Seattle. 

A rare hiccup from Griffin Jax, who walked the leadoff man in the eighth inning on Friday and watched him come around to score the tying run on an error, loomed larger than it needed to. Cole Sands later took the loss in the 10th without allowing a grounder to leave the infield. 

Earlier in that game, the first run scored when Christian Vázquez failed to corral an in-time throw at home and apply the tag, worsening matters on a night where he went 0-for-4 at the plate. He was 1-for-11 last week and his OPS is down to a miserable .459 on the season. It's obviously frustrating to see these lackluster showings pile up, and overall Vázquez has clearly been a big disappointment, but I do think the calls for releasing him are a bit over the top. 

For one thing, it's not happening, with the veteran still owed about $15 million through next year. But also, he hasn't been as detrimental to the team as some would suggest. He's been good defensively, Friday's misplay notwithstanding, and while Vázquez has been well below the offensive standard for even a part-time glove-first catcher, it is a role with low offensive expectations. 

Even with the 33-year-old backstop starting every other game, you can live with him buried at the bottom of this ultra-deep lineup. We've seen that; Vázquez's presence hasn't stopped the Twins developing into the league's most potent offense. I hope he can show he's got a little something left in the tank during the second half, but if not, it isn't the biggest deal in the world. The Twins showed they have no problem going with Ryan Jeffers exclusively in the playoffs, and keeping Vázquez in the regular rotation now helps preserve Jeffers physically for that crucial late stage of the season.

Similarly, it's tough for me to get too worked up about the team's recent costly late-game lapses. Yes, it is true that Minnesota's last six losses have all come by one run, and relievers were tagged with the L in each, but the way many have played out is akin to what we saw on Tuesday and Friday: ordinary bad breaks and isolated miscues turning the tides in tight games. So it goes. Even with the recent string of one-run losses, the Twins are still above .500 in such games on the season (14-11). 

But that's not to say the bullpen couldn't use an upgrade or two.

TRENDING STORYLINE

As we turn the calendar to July, we're officially entering trade deadline season in Major League Baseball. The Twins are very much in the buyer category as they look to surmount Cleveland's lead in the division and put together another postseason run. Minnesota has a flourishing minor-league system with numerous high-performing, highly-regarded prospects they could dangle in the hunt for impact talent, although it remains to be seen how their self-imposed financial limitations may or may not limit their options.

Aaron Gleeman teamed up with Eno Sarris at The Athletic to put together an exhaustive overview of players who might be available on the trade market, categorized by position and tier. While there's clearly not much of an offensive need for the Twins, as things stand, there's a good argument for targeting a frontline starter and an almost undeniable case for targeting relief help.

Brock Stewart is gradually making his way back from a shoulder injury and reportedly making progress in bullpen sessions, but it's tough to feel confident in what you're getting from him the rest of the way. Jhoan Durán is an uncertainty right now amidst lost velocity and strikeouts. The plainest need for the Twins, in terms of taking the next step as a premier contender, is at least one more high-caliber relief arm for the late innings.

As such, I'll be keeping a close eye on the likes of Mason Miller, Tanner Scott, Paul Sewald and even our old friend Ryan Pressly in the coming weeks. Will they be shopped? If so, how will their markets take shape? The Twins have certainly seen the downside of paying the freight for bullpen help at the deadline (see: Jorge López) but to stand still this year would feel irresponsible, barring major developments in the next month.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins return home on Tuesday from their successful 6-3 road trip out west for a six-game home stand, with three against the Tigers and three the Astros. Tuesday's opener against Detroit will make for a great matchup, with Minnesota's elite lineup against lefties facing off against perhaps the best left-handed pitcher in baseball, Tarik Skubal. Houston is on the rise in the AL West following a slow start, with a lineup that will present challenges for Twins pitching.

TUESDAY, JULY 2: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Tarik Skubal v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
WEDNESDAY, JULY 3: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Jack Flaherty v. RHP David Festa
THURSDAY, JULY 4: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Bailey Ober
FRIDAY, JULY 5: ASTROS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Pablo Lopez
SATURDAY, JULY 6:  ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Hunter Brown v. RHP Joe Ryan
SUNDAY, JULY 7: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Spencer Arrighetti v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson