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    Twins 3, Blue Jays 2: Offensive Malaise Continues, Dominant Pitching Wins Out in Extras


    Matt Braun

    A win is a win is a win is a win is a win...

    Image courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

    Twins Video

    Box Score
    Sonny Gray
    : 5 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 K
    Home Run: Michael A. Taylor (9)
    Top 3 WPA: Royce Lewis (.448), Jhoan Duran (.325), Michael A. Taylor (.318)

    Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

    chart(16).png.cf2ce9f7b96ad3132f2b93c90857786c.png

    Fresh off a weak, un-intimidating effort against the Tampa Bay Rays, the Twins knew something had to change. A gradual increase of runs—none, to one, to two—may have been a little whimsical, but it was not effective, and the three-game sweep they endured only increased the pressure the often-criticized lineup has received.

    And so, it was only fitting that they would have to face a lefty to fix their woes—the exact type of pitcher they have not hit well since Nelson Cruz took his talents to South Beach (or thereabouts).

    The early frames played out as expected: the Twins made starter Yusei Kikuchi work, exhibiting the common styles of a pesky offense, but their work could only amount to nips and minor cuts, never inflicting serious damage as each rally died quietly. It was business as usual. 

    Sonny Gray was his normal, hyper-efficient self, though, easily breezing through the first handful of innings with only an occasional hit—and his own clumsiness on a balk—breaking his rhythm.  

    Things changed in an instant. The forces restraining Minnesota’s offensive ability ceased in the 5th, allowing Royce Lewis to bust out an infield hit to begin the inning. Christian Vázquez may have struck out staring at the wisps of a Kikuchi fastball, but Michael A. Taylor found his fortune. Kikuchi’s slider was perfect—low, precisely engineered to elicit a two-strike whiff—but Taylor sensed the pitch, predicted the strategy, and blasted it 403 feet out to left-center field, handing Minnesota a sudden 2-0 lead. 

    But things are never easy for those searching for luck. Gray immediately capitulated, walking a batter before allowing a soft pitching wedge served into left field. There was trouble; Bo Bichette was trouble. His grounder found Toronto’s trampoline infield, bounding just beyond Kyle Farmer’s glove to score the opening run for the Blue Jays. Gray increased his anxiety with a bases-loading walk, but a pair of easy outs ended the frame with the damage limited. 

    And so started the running of the bullpens. Nate Pearson earned his scoreless frame, forcing the focus to Jovani Moran. The lefty coaxed two quick outs before allowing a single to Santiago Espinal, inspiring Blue Jays manager John Schneider to call on George Springer for a little more of the clutch magic he has worked in his legendary MLB career. He came through. Brock Stewart’s first-pitch sweeper did not surprise him, and the ensuing double plated the tying run.

    The hiccup proved to be an outlier amongst the game’s relievers, as the teams exchanged slugs of strong pitching—outs never in question—while the game slithered into its critical frames. 

    The ninth inspired action, with the Blue Jays loading the bases on Jhoan Duran; he escaped unharmed anyways.

    And with some aid from the Manfred Man, the Twins could finally break free. Royce Lewis acquired his fourth hit of the game—a dinky infield hit in front of Matt Chapman—setting up Taylor with the crucial at-bat; he delivered with a sacrifice fly just deep enough to elicit an awkward-hopped throw from Whit Merrifield, making Ryan Jeffers safe at the plate. 

    Duran was back to being the man of the hour. Despite pitches oozing with stress, Rocco Baldelli trusted that his guy would win out, that his prize horse would find his gallop and lead the Twins to victory. There was a walk to Merrifield—better to leave the old nemesis on base anyways—but Duran stared down his enemies and sent them back to the dugout disappointed, ending the game with a harmless pop-up from Santiago Espinal and giving the Twins their first win in five games. 

    Notes:

    Friday was Royce Lewis' first four-hit game in his MLB career.

    Jhoan Duran's 38-pitch outing was his highest pitch count in a game since throwing 40 pitches on July 16th, 2022, against the White Sox.

    Sonny Gray has reached five innings in every start in 2023 except for his May 17th outing against the Dodgers. 

    Post-Game Interview:

     

     

    What’s Next?
    The Twins and Blue Jays will play the second match of their three-game series on Saturday; first pitch is at 2:07 PM, and Joe Ryan will face off against RHP Trevor Richards (likely a bullpen game.)

    Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

    Screenshot2023-06-09190844.png.5360b9775fba31bca3a67a3dd0127686.png

     

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    Marek Houston

    Cedar Rapids Kernels - A+, SS
    The 22-year-old went 2-for-5 on Friday night, his fourth straight multi-hit game. Heading into the week, he was hitting .246/.328/.404 (.732). Four games later, he is hitting .303/.361/.447 (.808).

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    15 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

    I was not too confident going into the 10th with Jeffers on second and realizing they had no bench move to make.  His base running ended up getting it done though.

    A faster base runner makes it look easy, but getting to 3rd on Lewis's dribbler was really key. Given his speed he had to get a good break on it from second, which he did. And he was just fast enough to make the catcher hurry fielding the hop on a pretty good throw on the sac fly.

    Who would have expected Jeffers to have so many pivotal moments on the base paths?

    No one. 

    5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

    Congratulations to Royce Lewis for the four-hit game in which he didn't hit a single ball hard. He put the ball in play and good results happened. His slow roller in the tenth keyed the inning.

    Yeah but he never swung for the fences!!  That's NOT Twins baseball.

    9 hours ago, darwin22 said:

    Unlike others, I had every opportunity to watch the game, but opted not to for a multitude of reasons, but namely my desire to maintain positive mental health.

    Great to see losing streak end.  Saying that a couple of questions anyone wishing to answer:

    1.  Why was Gray pulled after 5 IP with his pitch count at only 76?

    2.  Not easy to answer, but have to ask:  Why on earth would Baldelli insert (AAAA) Garlick into the 3- hole, while Lewis is stuck hitting 7th?

    What has Garlick done (other than NOT being Kepler) to be in spot when he was 3-19 (.158) against LH pitching BEFORE the game started?  With his 0-2 against Kikuchi (down to .143 with an abysmal SLG %) how long must we endure him on this team while Wallner continues to RAKE at SP?

    One other question---that I'd appreciate anyone answering:

    What is the number of plate appearances that Polanco needs to reach for his 2024 vesting option of $10.5m to require Twins to bring him back?

    Twins are already locked into nearly $70 million next season for 5 players---Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, P. Lopez and Paddack.

    I've been a strong Polanco fam for years, but with his continued injuries and other/cheaper alternatives he'll be brought back.

    I'll try because it sounds like fun. It'll be heavy on assumptions obviously so grains of salt are necessary to digest.  

    1. Gray got himself into a pretty thick jam in the 5th so Moran had to get up and get ready. Rocco would have no choice here but to crank someone up. Once a pitcher gets lathered up in the bullpen, most managers across the league... if not all... will put that pitcher into the game so they don't waste the warm up session. No one should argue this decision. 

    2. Garlick has been a point of contention amongst many Twinsdaily posters including myself. My guess on why Rocco placed Garlick in the 3 spot instead of Lewis. Garlick has a decent track record against lefties while Lewis doesn't have much of a track record against anyone at the major league level. Garlick has 208 plate appearances vs left handed pitchers with a career .799 OPS. The numbers you quote are a small sample size of 22 PA's this year only. 

    Rocco seems to place more faith in larger samples over time and he consistently doesn't seem to react to smaller samples over the course of a season. Some feel this is a smart thing to do... I'm not one of those but I can understand if this is what he is thinking and he seems to be thinking that. Taylor still hits 9th even if he is third in home runs on the team. Correa has not dropped down in the batting order despite deserving to be dropped down in the batting order. Kepler gets pretty good lineup order treatment. I want to be clear... I do not agree with Rocco on this but this is his thing and he's been doing it this way for a long long time... I don't think he is going to change.  

    With Garlick I get why he batted third... I don't understand why he is on the roster at all... but, the other thing that is becoming undeniably obvious with Rocco (Front office?) is that the lefty/righty matchup is an unbreakable rule that trumps all other considerations and Rocco is consistently harder on lefty hitters facing left handed pitchers then he is on right handed hitters facing right handed pitchers. I don't agree with this when the team is struggling as hard as it has been but in fairness... the two left handers that the Jays deployed last night (Kikuchi and Mayza) have significant split differential... they are quite good against left handers and not quite as good against right handed pitchers. It isn't just the batters splits that needs to be taken into account if you are going to be a strict platoon practitioner and Rocco is a strict platoon practitioner.  

    My counter point is... it didn't do us much good last night and it hasn't all year. WE NEED HITTERS Period. Not letting Kirilloff face left handed pitchers is a bad idea for his development and he is simply our best hitter right now.  

    3. Polanco... He needs 550 AB's this season for his option to vest. He won't make it to 550 AB's but the team will probably resign him anyway. They have a club option on him in 2025 before he hits free agency in 2026. He has decent trade value with two years of control so letting him go for nothing would make no sense. If they needed his 10 million to make other acquisitions... they would trade him and get something in return. 

    That was my attempt at answering those questions. 

    10 hours ago, darwin22 said:

    Unlike others, I had every opportunity to watch the game, but opted not to for a multitude of reasons, but namely my desire to maintain positive mental health.

    Great to see losing streak end.  Saying that a couple of questions anyone wishing to answer:

    1.  Why was Gray pulled after 5 IP with his pitch count at only 76?

    2.  Not easy to answer, but have to ask:  Why on earth would Baldelli insert (AAAA) Garlick into the 3- hole, while Lewis is stuck hitting 7th?

    What has Garlick done (other than NOT being Kepler) to be in spot when he was 3-19 (.158) against LH pitching BEFORE the game started?  With his 0-2 against Kikuchi (down to .143 with an abysmal SLG %) how long must we endure him on this team while Wallner continues to RAKE at SP?

    One other question---that I'd appreciate anyone answering:

    What is the number of plate appearances that Polanco needs to reach for his 2024 vesting option of $10.5m to require Twins to bring him back?

    Twins are already locked into nearly $70 million next season for 5 players---Correa, Buxton, Vazquez, P. Lopez and Paddack.

    I've been a strong Polanco fam for years, but with his continued injuries and other/cheaper alternatives he'll be brought back.

    I too opted not to watch the game but caught it on the radio and just finished the fish I also caught ,,,

    It was a win win situation last night ...

    The biggest benefit to putting best hitters at the top of the order is the extra plate appearance. Garlick is not one of the best hitters but he was never going to get that extra plate appearance. Falvey has him on the roster because of his ability to hit lefties… an ability he hasn’t shown yet in the small sample.

    In that sense it does make sense to bat Garlick near the top of the line up. He is only in the game as long as Kikuchi is in the game and likely for two plate appearances. Those two plate appearance might come in the 3rd spot or the 8th spot. By placing him in the third spot they have Kirilloff or Larnach to take that place in the middle lineup. It is that player who will likely get any extra plate appearance.

    If you are imaging the end of game batting order as you construct a line up it might be reasonable to put your platoon right handed bat higher up in the lineup so that your left handed batter has a possibility of that extra at bat against a right handed pitcher.

    It turns out the only two players hitting the ball were Lewis and Taylor. It was lucky they were close together in the lineup or the Twins probably don’t win. The platoon 6 of Solano, Kirilloff, Garlick, Larnach, Farmer and Kepler combined for one Solano hit. Baldelli put those players in a position they were most likely to succeed and they didn’t follow through.

     

    1 hour ago, 2wins87 said:

    The Gray question has already been answered, but as has happened to him repeatedly in his recent starts, his command completely fell apart in the 5th.

    I listened to Randball's podcast introducing the new Twins beat writer for the Strib, Bobby Nightengale Jr. Apparently he has covered the Reds. He said the Reds struggled with trying to get Gray past the 5th inning. Early in his career with the A's, back in 2014 & 2015 he averaged about 6.7 innings a start. By 2019, an excellent season with the Reds, that was down to about 5.6 innings per start. That's about where we sit now. Sonny is solidly built, keeps himself in great shape and the intense competitor knows how to pitch. He is, however, a 33 year old 5' 10" starting pitcher. 

    12 hours ago, Squirrel said:

    It’s interesting that they are using Duran for more than one inning. Will this then limit his availability or are they purposely stretching him out a little? I hope his shoulder holds up, though, considering how hard he throws.

    Win today, takes your chances tomorrow (and the day after).

    I don’t think they are purposely stretching him beyond a 4-6 out type of thing. He was pretty inefficient in this game, though.

    To me, 6 outs should always be in play with Duran. Having said that, I don’t think 38-pitch appearances are sustainable. I think that’s definitely undesirable, but I wouldn’t abandon the willingness to attempt the strategy in games like this.,,for it to work he has to be more efficient than he was in this game, though, IMO.

    10 minutes ago, jkcarew said:

    Win today, takes your chances tomorrow (and the day after).

    I don’t think they are purposely stretching him beyond a 4-6 out type of thing. He was pretty inefficient in this game, though.

    To me, 6 outs should always be in play with Duran. Having said that, I don’t think 38-pitch appearances are sustainable. I think that’s definitely undesirable, but I wouldn’t abandon the willingness to attempt the strategy in games like this.,,for it to work he has to be more efficient than he was in this game, though, IMO.

    Agree. I like the idea behind the usage but yes, as you said, he has to be more efficient

    3 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

    ... call on George Springer for a little more of the clutch magic he has worked in his legendary MLB career.

    Springer is a good player, but to call his career "legendary" is laying it on a bit too thick! By that standard, Michael A. Taylor is legendary. A good player, and happy to have him, but not yet a legend. 

    He's a borderline Hall of famer and one of the best postseason performers in recent history; I'd call that legendary. 

    5 hours ago, Matt Braun said:

    He's a borderline Hall of famer and one of the best postseason performers in recent history; I'd call that legendary. 

    He's on the borderline for putting himself into the HoF discussion if he has a few more years at his established level of performance.  At age 33, that's not a sure thing.  And if you look at the proverbial Bus Test, I think HoF voters will see him below the borderline level.




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