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There's a lot of talk right now about what the Twins should—or shouldn't—do at this summer's trade deadline. Of course, last summer's fire sale left a sour taste in the mouths of Twins fans. Watching the front office move multiple veterans while the team drifted out of contention wasn't exactly fun, and it's understandable why many fans would prefer to avoid a repeat of that experience. The reality, though, is that another selling deadline is more likely than any other path.
The Twins currently sit five games below .500 and own a 19-27 record against teams with winning records. There's still time to climb back into the race, but the margin for error is shrinking, and this team hasn't consistently shown that it's capable of beating quality opponents. Even if they don't become full-on sellers, it's very clear that moves have to be made. I think the easiest move to make this summer is trading Trevor Larnach.
Moving Larnach makes sense for several reasons. The first is that he's in the middle of the best season of his major-league career. Entering Tuesday night’s game, Larnach is hitting .280/.377/.425. Both the batting average and the on-base percentage would be new career highs. While the power output hasn't quite lined up with previous years, there's still plenty to like about what he's done offensively. His strikeout rate is notably lower than it has been in previous years. He's controlling the strike zone better than ever, by sitting on fastballs and making sure he's on time when they come.
Larnach is playing really good baseball, and that's part of why the Twins should consider trading him. It's important to acknowledge that he’s 29 years old. He's very much in the prime of his career right now, and if the Twins aren't a truly competitive team, that's not necessarily the type of player profile that makes the most sense to keep around. If the organization believes they can earn a Wild Card spot or even win the AL Central, then you're not trading Larnach, and essentially everything I say from here on out can be disregarded. But if the Twins are still trying to figure out what the next great team looks like, then maximizing the value of players in their prime should be a priority.
There's also the contract aspect. Larnach has one more year of arbitration eligibility remaining before he reaches free agency. That means the Twins still have some team control left, which increases his value on the trade market. If they were to wait beyond this summer, they'd be dealing with a player entering a contract year. Naturally, that's going to reduce the return compared to what they could get now. For someone who's currently having the best season of his career, this may very well be the moment when his value is at its highest.
Then there's the roster construction side of things. If the Twins did decide to trade Larnach, there would be no shortage of candidates to step up in his absence. Emmanuel Rodriguez has been on the minds of Twins fans for months. He's currently working his way back from injury, but assuming he's healthy later this summer, there's a very good chance he gets an opportunity to see major-league action. Left field would be one of the easiest pathways to getting his bat into the lineup. Alan Roden recently returned from his own injured list stint and has been red-hot at Triple-A. At one point during spring training, it looked like he had a legitimate chance to earn an Opening Day roster spot before ultimately falling short. He's done nothing but continue hitting since then; it feels like he's earned an opportunity.
You also have Walker Jenkins, the organization's top prospect, waiting in the wings. Jenkins could easily force his way into the conversation before the season is over, and frankly, it would be nice to see him do so. Staying on the field will be the biggest obstacle, but health permitting, he should earn an opportunity. Hendry Mendez is another intriguing option. While he doesn't receive quite as much attention as Rodriguez or Jenkins, he's continued to put himself on the radar and could make his major-league debut during the second half.
And let's not forget about Matt Wallner. Wallner's name has surfaced in trade conversations as well, but as things currently stand, he's still on the 40-man roster and remains another option. He certainly has less trade value than Larnach right now, and there's more team control remaining, so of the two, it makes more sense to move Larnach if the team is in sell mode this summer.
That's five names that could immediately become part of the equation if the Twins decide to move on from Larnach. Even during a career year, he simply isn't producing at a level that makes him completely irreplaceable. He's a good player, but he's also playing a position where the Twins have an abundance of young talent waiting for opportunities. They can barely find playing time for all the outfielders they have in St. Paul, especially after the promotion of Kala'i Rosario. They need to ease the logjam somehow, at some point.
In a different set of circumstances, the Twins might be looking at that group and discussing which prospect could be moved to acquire immediate help for a playoff run. But with the team sitting below .500, the more logical approach may be creating opportunities for those players, rather than blocking them. Keeping Larnach around while simultaneously trying to find at-bats for Rodriguez, Jenkins, Mendez, and Roden becomes increasingly difficult, making Larnach one of the organization's clearest trade candidates.
There are contending teams around baseball that could use corner outfield help. Larnach is productive, affordable, and under team control beyond this season. That's a profile that should generate legitimate interest. Whether the Twins ultimately buy, sell, or try to walk the line somewhere in between, I think it's in their best interest to explore a Larnach trade.
A month from now, if the Twins are sitting two or three games above .500 and firmly in the playoff picture, I'd probably have a change of heart. But as things stand today, trading Trevor Larnach this summer feels about as easy as it gets.
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