As Twins Scour for Rotation Improvements, Joe Ryan Emerges as Incumbent Ace

The moment that Joe Ryan was acquired for a shell of Nelson Cruz, it looked like Derek Falvey had made a great deal. In the time since, the former top-100 prospect has developed his game a bit each year, and the results have translated on the field. Now in his fourth big-league season, Ryan looks like the best possible version of himself.

Coming into the year, Rocco Baldelli had a Cy Young hopeful in the form of Pablo López. The former Marlins pitcher had already made the Luis Arráez trade look like a good one, and another step forward would land him among an elite tier of pitchers at the top of the game. Unfortunately, López's season has been marred by poor performances and some bum luck.

The results from López have placed greater importance on the rest of the starting rotation. Simeon Woods Richardson has answered the call, and is among the best rookies in the American League. Bailey Ober has flashed well at times, and looks the part of a mid-rotation starter. With the team needing a Sonny Gray-type performance from 2023, though, it’s been Ryan who has come closest.

After being bitten by home runs to the tune of 1.8 of them per nine innings pitched in 2023, he has cut down the longballs to the tune of a near-career-best 1.3 HR/9. His 3.21 ERA is the lowest of his big-league career, and he has never walked fewer batters. Ryan is still being carried by a fastball that plays up significantly higher than the 93.9 mph it has averaged (though that number, itself, is notably higher than in the past), and his expected statistics suggest that a sub-3.00 ERA is in the cards.

At 2.3 fWAR on the season, Ryan sits among the top 15 pitchers across baseball, and he matches American League Cy Young contender Corbin Burnes. With another 10-strikeout performance over the weekend against the Seattle Mariners, Ryan has a pair of them in 2024. He twirled six such outings a year ago, and more should be coming down the stretch.

When looking ahead to the postseason, Ryan is the type of starter who can be counted on to go out and get the job done. He was given just two innings against the Houston Astros during the American League Division Series in 2023, but will likely earn a longer leash when his name is called upon this season--assuming he can sustain what we've seen so far throughout the second half. He's already gone at least seven innings five different times this year; he did so just four times during the entirety of the 2023 season.

Pitching remains a need for the Twins ahead of the trade deadline, and acquiring someone to bolster the rotation or bullpen should be atop the priority list. Still, Ryan is giving them a welcome anchor around which to build their playoff rotation, in light of the disappointing fact that López hasn't been. Making sure they supplement Ryan, and get López back on track, should be focal points.

Arbitration-eligible for the first time next year, Ryan will earn a nice bump in his salary. Being under team control as he continues to get better is definitely a positive outcome for Minnesota. We'll surely hear some conversations about a contract extension between Ryan and the Twins this autumn and winter, but maybe we should listen for them even sooner.