Twins Video
On the business side of things, the Twins are an absolute mess. Attendance is down, revenue is down, and while the TV contract situation nosed up in a small way recently, it still looks horrifying for 2025 and beyond. Ownership has been tone-deaf, making self-serving moves and proclamations, with little regard for the front office, team or fans. Like most private equity firms, they focus only on the short term while neglecting consumers and those who manage day-to-day operations.
However, it's important to notice how good a job the baseball operations department has been doing the past few years. The farm system is one of the strongest 10 in the game; the lineup has performed admirably; and the pitching has stayed remarkably healthy, even if it hasn’t reached the peaks of effectiveness we saw in 2023. This team is a dark horse for the pennant, and nobody seems to acknowledge it.
Last year, the Twins made noise in the playoffs, and this year, they have flown under the radar while maintaining the fourth-best record in the American League. The lineup has been a force of baseball nature since mid-April. The starting pitching has been serviceable, if rather unlucky, and the bullpen has several pieces it could turn to for the stretch run. Just like in 2023, when perhaps no bullpen could match the firepower of Jhoan Durán, Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Louie Varland, Caleb Thielbar, Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagán.
The top three remain the same, with the potential to add Varland back along with the emergence of Jorge Alcalá as a sub-2.00 ERA demon from the right side. Justin Topa also exists, at least in theory.
The rotation could use some top-end talent, but that is truly the team’s only flaw. But considering Pablo López’s recent playoff track record, it may be the most minute flaw of any contender. Let’s review:
Baltimore: issues with both rotation and bullpen.
New York Yankees: lineup depth issues, pitching has come back to Earth
Seattle: Simply cannot hit, even after adding Randy Arozarena
Houston: Patchwork rotation, could still be a threat if Justin Verlander returns strong
Cleveland: Lineup holes, no clear number two starter behind Tanner Bibee, who is not a clear number one.
Kansas City: Kind of like the Yankees with two elite hitters, but Salvador Perez is no Aaron Judge and the supporting cast is even worse. Also, they have a bad bullpen.
Milwaukee: Christian Yelich’s injury was the last thing they needed. No number-two starter.
Philadelphia: Late-game bullpen has been a sore spot. Addressed by trading for Carlos Estévez.
Atlanta: No depth. I told you.
LA Dodgers: Pitching issues. Evan Phillips has struggled, Walker Buehler hasn’t looked the same since Tommy John surgery, Yoshinobu Yamamoto is questionable to return this year, and Clayton Kershaw just came back.
Some of these holes will be addressed at the deadline, but those acquisitions are an inexact science. Estévez looks like a perfect add for the Phillies, but the man has only pitched for the Rockies and Angels; who knows how he’ll react when presented with real pressure.
The point is that the Twins are in really, truly great shape. The American League, as a whole, is definitely not. There should be a buzz around the Twins, but there are two roadblocks with that.
One, Twins fans and media never put the cart before the horse, and the national media has absolutely no idea why the Twins are even in playoff position. Case in point, I listened to a couple of minutes of Jomboy Media’s Talkin' Baseball podcast, where they examined why all the top teams were struggling. Team by team, they listed flaws similar to what I mentioned above. When they got to the Twins, Jake Storiale, who suggested last year that the Blue Jays lose on purpose to face the Twins in the playoffs, described the Twins as “ssstruggling..?” Trevor Plouffe then reminded Storiale they just took two of three from the Phillies without their three best hitters.
I don’t blame Storiale, who is more informed on the Twins than most analysts. National baseball media cares about two things: cute stories and counting stats. The Twins were somewhat cute last year, with a bunch of rookies led by Royce Lewis announcing their arrival by breaking one of sport's most notorious curses. But there were no counting stats to be had, with Max Kepler leading the team with 24 home runs and 66 RBIs. López and Sonny Gray led the team with 11 wins each, while Durán had 27 saves..
This year is more of the same, but without the cute narrative. Ryan Jeffers and Carlos Santana lead the team in home runs with 14, tied for 66th in baseball. The RBI lead is a tie between Jeffers, Correa and Santana, at 47, tied for 70th in baseball. Correa has a high batting average, but that seems fleeting with his injury, and if he misses another week of games, he may not qualify for the batting title. On the pitching side, Durán has come back to Earth, while Ober and Joe Ryan have respectable but not attention-grabbing ERAs in the high threes. López will need a monumental second half to get his ERA below 4.00. They do, however, lead the league in strikeout rate as a pitching staff.
Counting stats are fun. We all remember Joe Mauer hitting .365 with 28 homers in 2009. We remember Brad Radke winning 20 games in 1997, and Johan Santana striking out 250 batters on an annual basis with a sub-3.00 ERA.
But even if no one on the team gets to 30 homers, and no starter has an ERA under 3.00, this team could easily be elite in offense and relief pitching. In basketball and football, the currency of trades is draft picks. In baseball, it's prospects. Walker Jenkins, Emmanuel Rodríguez, Brooks Lee and Zebby Matthews should all be in play to acquire either Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet. I’d lean toward Skubal, given Crochet’s extension demands. Failing those intradivisional options, maybe Justin Steele of the Cubs is available.
Next year is next year, and payroll will likely drop even further. But Kepler and Kyle Farmer will drop off the books, so you should be able to lower payroll a bit and still get two shots at a title with a team that is elite in all three phases of the game. The team will probably be terrible by 2028. That’s baseball in a small market, when the ownership group chooses to behave according to those norms. Let's go out in a blaze of glory.
Follow Twins Daily For Minnesota Twins News & Analysis
- Jerr, DannySD, tarheeltwinsfan and 6 others
-
9
Recommended Comments
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now