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The Twins are in an envious position. All but a handful of MLB teams would swap their current state of affairs for a locked-in core of Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien, Carlos Correa, Ryan Jeffers, Byron Buxton, Pablo López, and Jhoan Durán, not to discount an additional two top-20 prospects in Walker Jenkins (Ranked 16th at MLB Pipeline) and Brooks Lee (18th).
There is loads of talent in the organization, evidenced by a stellar second half in which the Twins went 42-29 (a 96-win pace) while scoring the second-most runs (398) and allowing the fourth-fewest (306) in the American League. If there was ever a year in which the 26-man collection could endure payroll restrictions, 2024 is it. But that's a slippery slope.
Lewis, who should be a trendy 2024 MVP pick, is earning the minimum at third base. Same for Julien, Matt Wallner, Durán, and three presumptive rotation members, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and Louie Varland. Chris Paddack comes in at $2.5 million, a very affordable price for a backend starter. López is collecting a mere $8.25 million on the front end of a brilliant four-year, $73.5-million extension agreed to in late April. That's chump change for an ace.
Jorge Polanco’s $10.5 million appears bloated by comparison, especially given the self-imposed budgetary constraints. The institutional anchor, after nearly 15 years and 1,466 games in the organization, is not a player you push to flip. Polanco’s 118 wRC+ ranked sixth among 26 A.L. second baseman with at least 250 plate appearances last season. He posted career highs in Barrel rate and Hard-Hit rate, while producing an OPS significantly better than MLB’s mean. While he graded poorly by Outs Above Average (OAA) at -5, Polanco finished as a plus in Defensive Runs Saved (1).
Lee, who is a legitimate top-end prospect, doesn't look quite ready. As of this writing, he’s 22 years old and hit .237 with a .731 OPS in his first taste of Triple A. In an extremely offense-friendly environment, Lee’s wRC+ of 78 was 22 percent below the league average. I’m not saying he won’t be good (or even great!) in the majors; he just probably won’t be for a bit. Like Julien last May, you cross that bridge when you come to it for a team with the potential to play deep into October.
Finding that same proverbial room for Julien is unnecessary. Unlike José Miranda, who held his own against same-sided pitchers in 2022 and essentially pushed out Gio Urshela in a similar situation at third, he’s best suited for a fairly strict platoon role. An early season pairing of Buxton and Julien at DH could be exceedingly favorable for the Twins, assuming Buxton eases back into center field during that time.
A $12-million club option for 2025 lets the Twins re-evaluate Polanco next offseason and make the call then. There is ample capital with which to deal for starting pitching, without taking away from a deep, brawny position player group.
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The fixation in moving Polanco in most spaces is opportunity cost: the loss of potential gains from other alternatives. Perhaps overcoming his greatest flaw, Julien seemed competent defensively down the stretch. The numbers check out. He went from -4 OAA from March through June to 4 OAA from July through September. The rookie finished with a neutral number of runs prevented, per Statcast.
It’s sensible to simply chalk Julien in at second base, wait for Lee, and send Polanco on his merry way, with big-league help or prospects coming in return. This type of roster architecture has borne fruit on numerous occasions in Twins history. See: rookie Joe Mauer replacing A.J. Pierzynski, who was traded for Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano. Or, for a more recent example: acquiring López for Arraez, who watched from afar as Julien emerged in his spot.
I'm almost always in favor of this "trust the kids" strategy. Not in this case. First, you're not going to net a López for Polanco, who remains good and underrated but also limited by age and injuries. It's true that since 2021, Polanco ranks fifth among 39 qualified second basemen in wRC+ (121), homers (63), and fourth in RBI (202). It's equally true that, after leading the Twins by a mile with 1,574 plate appearances from 2019 to 2021, Polanco has logged a total of 788 since. Recurring lower body trouble has limited him to 181 starts over the last two seasons. It's enough to wonder if the 30-year-old is nearing the end of his prime.
I'm willing to bet he has a lot more to give in 2024. Polanco is the prototype of a well-known, well-liked veteran who supplements a roster brimming with young talent. He's no longer one of the team's best players, but that doesn't mean he's instantly dispensable. He's a good enough player until he shows you he's not. I want to keep as many good players as possible, with a modest potential return in mind.
What's your stance on Polanco? How much would the Twins have to get in return in order for you to be ok with the departure of such a long-tenured fixture?
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