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    The More Things Change, The More Things Change


    Seth Stohs

    On Tuesday, Eddie Rosario was optioned to Rochester with newly-acquired Robbie Grossman filling his roster spot. There have been a ton of transactions in the minor leagues so far this year, but it all starts up top.

    Opening Day was just over six weeks ago. Generally speaking, teams like to make minimal transactions for at least the first sixty games of the season. The Twins will play their 40th game of the 2016 on Thursday, looking for their 11th win. They have filled the transactions lists. They have had several players placed on the DL.

    Most of the promotions and demotions have been on the roster's edges which makes sense for several reasons. Teams aren't looking to trade in early May so the players that teams might have interest in during June and particularly July won't bring back much at this time.

    A quick look at the wins Opening Day roster (again, just over six weeks ago) and comparing it to today shows just how much change over there has been.

    Image courtesy of David Richard, USA Today

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    Let's break this out into positions. Let's start with the Hitters:

    OPENING DAY ROSTER

    C - Kurt Suzuki

    1B - Joe Mauer

    2B - Brian Dozier

    3B - Trevor Plouffe

    SS - Eduardo Escobar

    LF - Eddie Rosario

    CF - Byron Buxton

    RF - Miguel Sano

    DH - Byung Ho Park

    Bench: John Ryan Murphy, Danny Santana, Oswaldo Arcia, Eduardo Nunez

    MAY 19 ROSTER

    C - Kurt Suzuki

    1B - Joe Mauer

    2B - Brian Dozier

    3B - Trevor Plouffe

    SS - Eduardo Nunez

    LF - Oswaldo Arcia

    CF - Danny Santana

    RF - Miguel Sano

    DH - Byung Ho Park

    Bench: Juan Centeno, Jorge Polanco, Robbie Grossman, Darin Mastroianni

    HITTER SUMMARY

    There was so much optimism for this offense when spring training camp broke and they went to DC to play a couple of games against the Nationals. The offense has struggled at the things it did so well a year ago, especially in that 20-8 May. They aren't bunching hits together or hitting as well with Runners In Scoring Position. The strikeouts are high (though not as alarmingly so as they were early in the season.

    This list really doesn't look like as much change as one would think. The change is on the fringes. The veterans are still in there. Byung Ho Park has exceeded early-season expectations and has been good. Joe Mauer had a great April and is back to the 2014 and 2015 version so far in May. Brian Dozier's struggles since last year's All Star break continue. Eduardo Escobar in on the Disabled List. Trevor Plouffe has been just fine, but he missed time on the Disabled List too.

    We saw Max Kepler come up to the Twins just four games into the season. He sat on the bench most of the time. Jorge Polanco has already been up three times and aside from a few starts has been on the bench most of the time.

    Byron Buxton struck out in 49.0% of his plate appearances and had to be optioned. Eddie Rosario was given over 100 plate appearances to make some adjustments. It just wasn't happening. Oswaldo Arcia started taking some playing time from him. For awhile, he was very good, but he has slumped of late as well.

    John Ryan Murphy couldn't buy a hit, so he was finally optioned to Rochester after about a month. Juan Centeno, one of the better stories from spring training, was promoted.

    Eduardo Nunez has certainly been a success story. He was place in the lineup early in the year after some injuries and he has continued to hit all year. He's certainly earned his playing time, though it was injuries that gave it to him at first. He took advantage. Polanco and Mastroianni sit on the bench most days. It is perfectly fine for a veteran such as Mastroianni to sit on the bench, maybe making a start a week and playing defense in a couple more, but Polacno needs to play every day and should do so in Rochester until a move is made to clear some playing time for him.

    As I wrote earlier this week, the best thing for Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Rosario, Murphy and other young players is to play a lot. To get repetitions on defense and get a lot of plate appearances. In fact, I wrote about that during the second week of the season when Polanco and Kepler were both sitting on the bench most every day. However, at some point, the organization needs to turn things over to the next group and hope that their talent takes over and they find success in conjunction with some of the veterans.

    Now let's take a look at the pitcher comparisons, starting with the starters. .

    OPENING DAY ROTATION

    SP - Ervin Santana

    SP - Phil Hughes

    SP - Tommy Milone

    SP - Kyle Gibson

    SP - Ricky Nolasco

    MAY 19 ROTATION

    SP - Ervin Santana

    SP - Phil Hughes

    SP - Ricky Nolasco

    SP - Tyler Duffey

    SP - Pat Dean

    STARTER SUMMARY

    By just looking at the list, it doesn't look dramatically different, but there are a few things to note. First, who had Pat Dean in the starting rotation six weeks into the season?

    Ervin Santana missed 15 days with some back issues. Kyle Gibson has been on the DL with a shoulder strain. Phil Hughes let it be known after his most recent start that he has been experiencing what they're calling "shoulder fatigue." While it isn't an injury, anyone who has played is aware of what is often called "Dead Arm." It can strike at any time and is a phase, often short-term, where a pitcher just isn't feeling right and able to air things out in the same way as "normal." Hughes has been continuing to pitch while working with the training staff. Those were supposed to be the three givens at the top of the rotation.

    Tommy Milone pitched well in spring training and entered the season as the #4 starter. He struggled to be able to eat many innings early in the season and was eventually moved into the bullpen. After just an appearance out of the bullpen, he was place on waivers. He was able to clear waivers and is now in the Rochester rotation and off of the 40-man roster.

    Ricky Nolasco beat out Tyler Duffey for the fifth spot in the rotation and looked good his first few starts. He's struggled since then.

    It wasn't long before Duffey was back in the big leagues. Right now, he's clearly the Twins top starting pitcher again, as he was over his final nine starts in 2015.

    Jose Berrios reached the big leagues and made four starts. He struggled in the first, and despite continued control problems, he pitched well in his second and third starts. However, on Monday in Detroit, he recorded just two outs and gave up seven runs. Most alarming, he walked four batters. Following the game, he was sent back to Rochester.

    Pat Dean is set to make his first MLB start on Saturday. He came into the game to replace Berrios and pitched into the 7th inning. The southpaw should get a couple of starts before Kyle Gibson returns from the Disabled List.

    The starters began the season by pitching well for the first time or two through the rotation, but since then injury and inconsistency has taken over.

    THE BULLPEN

    OPENING DAY ROSTER

    CL - Glen Perkins

    RP - Kevin Jepsen

    RP - Trevor May

    RP - Ryan Pressly

    RP - Casey Fien

    RP - Fernando Abad

    RP - Michael Tonkin

    MAY 19 ROSTER

    CL - Kevin Jepsen

    RP - Trevor May

    RP - Ryan Pressly

    RP - Michael Tonkin

    RP - Fernando Abad

    RP - Brandon Kintzler

    RP - Taylor Rogers

    BULLPEN SUMMARY

    Less than a week into the season, Glen Perkins went on the DL with a shoulder strain and hasn't been able return yet. There still is no timeline for his return. Since then, everyone has moved up one spot. It hasn't gone well. Kevin Jepsen has been unreliable in the close role. Trevor May has been a strikeout machine in the bullpen, but he has struggled his last couple of outings. Ryan Pressly was good the first few weeks but has struggled the last month. Michael Tonkin has certainly had ups and downs all season. Fernando Abad has been very good most of his times out all season.

    Casey Fien was also placed on waivers at the same time as Tommy Milone. Fien was claimed by the Dodgers who then placed him on waivers and when he cleared they sent him to AAA.

    JR Graham got one appearance before being DFAd and traded to the Yankees. Ryan O'Rourke was DFAd at the same time. He cleared waivers and is pitching well again at Rochester. He actually continued to pitch well against left-handers, as he has his entire career.

    Brandon Kintzler was brought in on a minor league contract. He came up when Graham and Fien were let go. Taylor Rogers is already up for the second time. The first time was when Perkins was DLd. He pitched just once and was sent back down. With Dean moving into the rotation, the Twins needed a long reliever and Rogers got the call again.

    ROSTER SUMMARY

    The Twins have averaged one player sent to the Disabled List each week so far this season including two players in the Opening Day lineup and two in their Opening Day starting rotation. Their closer has been on the Disabled List almost all season.

    Three of the four bench players on Opening Day are now starting due to injury or poor play. Fien and Milone were already placed on waivers. Two other bullpen guys have been DFAd.

    To this point, the changes have been on the fringes. Changes made (non-DL moves) have been at the back end of the rotation and the bullpen and with the young hitters that have struggled.

    The veterans (who are healthy) remain on the roster. Of course, that is subject to change in the coming months as the Twins are clearly "Sellers" at this point in the season and fans look to 2017 and beyond. In my most recent article, I wrote that the Twins should turn over the roster to the future August 1st. That was an arbitrary date. There's no reason at this point to wait to make deals until the July 31st deadline if any present themselves sooner

    Until then, we will watch Robbie Grossman, Danny Santana and Miguel Sano in the Twins outfield while an outfield of Eddie Rosario, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler. That is the group that will be fun to watch and think about going forward, especially should Miguel Sano move back to third base.

    There have been a lot of transactions and the season is just six weeks old. However, the Twins have ten wins and have been swept eight times already. It is likely there will be a lot more transactions before this season is over. Will there be many more wins?

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    I figured Dean would get a shot before Berrios (not on the 40 man at the time) and maybe Meyer (though Meyer to be honest earned his shot), but yeah, there's been lots of change...

     

    I'd really like to be a fly on the wall in a conversation between TR and PM.  Really curious why guys like Polanco and Kepler just sit the bench.  That's fine for a couple days, but at one point, you have to just play them.  I'd rather they have added Beresford to the 40 man and let him sit the bench than to do that with Polanco.  The same with Dean and Meyer.  Polanco and Meyer have talent to have an ML future.  Dean and Beresford are on the fringes.  If you're going to just put the guy on the bench, I'd have brought up those two.

     

    At least Mastroianni was called up to sit the bench.

     

    wait, why is that good? :)

     

    I figured Dean would get a shot before Berrios (not on the 40 man at the time) and maybe Meyer (though Meyer to be honest earned his shot), but yeah, there's been lots of change...

     

    I'd really like to be a fly on the wall in a conversation between TR and PM.  Really curious why guys like Polanco and Kepler just sit the bench.  That's fine for a couple days, but at one point, you have to just play them.  I'd rather they have added Beresford to the 40 man and let him sit the bench than to do that with Polanco.  The same with Dean and Meyer.  Polanco and Meyer have talent to have an ML future.  Dean and Beresford are on the fringes.  If you're going to just put the guy on the bench, I'd have brought up those two. 

    I'd really like to be a human being in the same room as TR and PM. Quite frankly I don't think flies comprehend English.... I mean, they never oblige when I say to them "Get out of here, fly!"

     

    I expect the Twins to eat some salary this year. If the Twins do eat salary, I think the candidates are Hughes, Nolasco or Mauer.

     

    Just tossing it out there.

     

    Red meat among a bunch of piranhas, as it were.

     

    You think the Twins are going to pay Mauer > $60 million to not play for them? Okkkkk

     

    You think they are going to release Hughes before the extension they signed him too even BEGINS?  

     

    I would not hold your breath (nor should they do either of those moves)

    Edited by alarp33

    Why shouldn't the Twins cut Mauer?

     

    IF the team is better w/o him (say, Sano at DH, Park at 1B and whomever in RF).......why not cut him? I'm not saying they should, but why not?

     

    They are spending the money whether he plays or not. His replacement on teh 25 man roster would cost less than $500K a year most likely (since it is most likely a rookie).

    At what point do you let Molitor off the hook a bit for players just playing downright bad. I'm not saying none of this debacle is Molly's fault, the buck has to stop somewhere. But Dozier?...come on! Nunez is the best player on the team right now?...ugg. Only one half of the pitching staff works at a time, either you get decent starters or decent relievers (or neither). This team isn't this bad, is it? I say SELL, SELL, SELL! Go young ASAP.

    From Jeffery Todd's Q&A at MLBTR:

     

    Matt
    3:01
    "There aren't many teams that would stick with a GM for two decades of .474 baseball and zero playoff success. There aren't many markets in which that GM and his longtime front office assistants would receive little criticism and tons of praise for producing 11 losing seasons in 18 years." - A recent article about Terry Ryan and the Minnesota Twins. how to fix the minnesota twins?

     

    Jeffrey Todd
    3:02
    Ouch. Well, you have to wonder whether ownership is pleased that he's managing things the way it wants and helping make the team money, rather than fretting over his W-L record.

     

    Alright, which one of you guys is Matt? Todd's take as an assumed impartial outsider is interesting.

     

    Meanwhile in AAA... JT Chargois has an ERA of 0, 70% K%, and a FIP of -1.78. It's only 4.1 innings, but still. 

     

    By my math, between AA and AAA this year, he has 16 innings, a 40% K%, and a FIP of 1.79, and a WHIP of 1.00.

     

    I suspect he'll get his shot, though given that he started in AA, I don't think it's unfair to start bashing management on this one.  He did his job there and is now getting a tougher assignment in AAA.  He'll be up soon enough.

     

    The youngsters need to play every day. The question is should it be in AAA or the majors? Is flailing away in the majors better than doing well in AAA? Personally I think TR gave in to fan pressure and rushed everyone up before they were ready.

    I don't know about the rushing players to the big leagues. I know it's different for different players and different teams, but when the Twins bring guys up, they generally have underachieved.

     

    One guy I look at is Francisco Lindor. He was a great prospect, but he hit like .270-.280 every year in the minors, and now he's hitting .316 in almost a full season's worth of games. He would seem about as ready as Buxton should be, so...why can't we have nice things?

     

    At least Mastroianni was called up to sit the bench.

    wait, why is that good? :)

     

    Like it or not, it is good in a way.  We may not like Maestro up on the major league team, but Buxton and Rosario certainly haven't cut it.  They pretty clearly needed more time in the minors as they are both clearly overmatched at the moment.  Kepler isn't really a CF, and truthfully he's finally starting to come around in AAA (he was pretty bad in what little PT he's had thus far).  Walker hasn't been very good in AAA either.

     

    It's bad from the standpoint that there was no real backup plan for CF, and this is a scenario where you go out and get that 1 year stop gap/make good type contract.  Perhaps that was supposed to be Sweeney, but Buxton hardly earned the job out of spring training and yet Sweeney was cut despite out performing him. 

     

    The problem with going with the kids so to speak is that you have scenarios like Rosario and Buxton.  This is hardly unique to the Twins, and it's fairly common when you think about it.  It's the big debate between win now and win later.  You go with the kids, you're choosing win later, which isn't going to go over well with some fans, and you may have to make adjustments like Maestro because they didn't cut it.  That's baseball.  It sucks, but that's how it is.  You go spend a lot of money, you choose win now, but as soon as that age curve hits, whatever money you still owe is still owed.  This isn't the NFL, and you don't get to just cut them.  It's why we are still cursing the Nolasco contract and why no one likes the Mauer contract at the moment. 

     

     

    One guy I look at is Francisco Lindor. He was a great prospect, but he hit like .270-.280 every year in the minors, and now he's hitting .316 in almost a full season's worth of games. He would seem about as ready as Buxton should be, so...why can't we have nice things?

     

    Francisco Lindor had a 67 wRC+ and a .246/.280/.331 line through his 1st month in the Bigs.  

     

    Sure, Buxton struck out wayyy too often, but I would say its fair to ask, why were the Indians willing to let Lindor learn on the job, while the Twins don't have any interest in that (Buxton, Berrios, Meyer, etc.).  

     

    Just a guess, but the Indians probably knew they didn't have better internal options (Pretty clear the Twins don't as well, for the 3 prospects listed above), and knew Lindor would figure it out because he's a super talented kid, who might learn from his ML manager, hitting coach, etc more than he would in AAA. 

    Edited by alarp33

     

    Francisco Lindor had a 67 wRC+ and a .246/.280/.331 line through his 1st month in the Bigs.  

     

    Sure, Buxton struck out wayyy too often, but I would say its fair to ask, why were the Indians willing to let Lindor learn on the job, while the Twins don't have any interest in that (Buxton, Berrios, Meyer, etc.).  

     

    Just a guess, but the Indians probably knew they didn't have better internal options (Pretty clear the Twins don't as well, for the 3 prospects listed above), and knew Lindor would figure it out because he's a super talented kid, who might learn from his ML manager, hitting coach, etc more than he would in AAA. 

     

    Buxton wasn't that good his first month, nor his second.  He had plenty of time to learn on the job and didn't improve.  That's what happens when you're overmatched, and it is why he needed to go back down.  I wouldn't fault the Twins for sending him down.  He's not ready.  I would fault them for not having (or using if you count Sweeney) a viable option in the first place.

     

    Buxton wasn't that good his first month, nor his second.  He had plenty of time to learn on the job and didn't improve.  That's what happens when you're overmatched, and it is why he needed to go back down.  I wouldn't fault the Twins for sending him down.  He's not ready.  I would fault them for not having (or using if you count Sweeney) a viable option in the first place.

     

    Buxton started 15 games this season before being sent to AAA. Berrios started 4, Meyer 1.  

     

    No one is denying they were a bad 15, 4 or 1 games.   The question is, why weren't they given more time, since the replacement options are just as bad or even worse

     

    Edit* He actually only started 12 games (1 of these I have listed as a start he came off the bench in the 1st inning, can't remember which game it was)

     

    Game Log

     

    Started 4 Games

    Sat 1

    Started 3

    Sat 3 

    Started 3

    Sat 1

    Started 2

    Sat 1

    Started 1

     

    Yup - he SURE got plenty of chances this season to get in a rhythm and learn to hit ML pitching

     

    Edited by alarp33

     

    I suspect he'll get his shot, though given that he started in AA, I don't think it's unfair to start bashing management on this one.  He did his job there and is now getting a tougher assignment in AAA.  He'll be up soon enough.

    He's 25. He relies primarily on triple digit heat for outs. Based on his age he's at his peak velocity, and will start dropping as he gets closer to 30. If the Twins want to maximize his value, they need him up ASAP. I don't know what else he has left to prove. 

     

    Francisco Lindor had a 67 wRC+ and a .246/.280/.331 line through his 1st month in the Bigs.  

     

    Sure, Buxton struck out wayyy too often, but I would say its fair to ask, why were the Indians willing to let Lindor learn on the job, while the Twins don't have any interest in that (Buxton, Berrios, Meyer, etc.).  

     

    Just a guess, but the Indians probably knew they didn't have better internal options (Pretty clear the Twins don't as well, for the 3 prospects listed above), and knew Lindor would figure it out because he's a super talented kid, who might learn from his ML manager, hitting coach, etc more than he would in AAA. 

     

    The problem with your comparison is that first month stat line for Lindor is better than any single month that Buxton has yet compiled in the majors. And after that first month Lindor went on to crush it whereas Buxton has done nothing but flounder. He has shown almost no sustained improvement over ~180 plate appearances. He's still very young and flew through the minors with a lost year in 2014. Let him go work things out with a lower pressure environment for a while.

     

    I have no problem with lettings the struggling young players work things out at AAA away from the spotlight of the big club. That has to be a pretty toxic atmosphere up there right now. Meyer is a guy I really want to see put in the rotation to sink or swim, but that's more based on his age and service time at AAA already. If he bombs then move him to the bullpen until he either figures it out or plays his way out of the league. Polanco should be playing every day as well since he seems to be ready, but if he's just going to sit on the bench then I'd rather he keep playing at AAA instead of stagnating his development.

     

    The only thing I'd change with this would be that I'd like to see all of those guys up in July.  At this point however, a full fledged youth movement would be welcome.  That would at least be a display of some sort of plan.

    I'm OK wit dat.  And as soon as Roose Bolton with the wad of BlackJack in his craw over there in the dugout is gone, I would be OK wit dat, too.

    Edited by David HK
    I suspect he'll get his shot, though given that he started in AA, I don't think it's unfair to start bashing management on this one.  He did his job there and is now getting a tougher assignment in AAA.  He'll be up soon enough.

     

    Precisely. And lest we forget, while he has been mostly lights and dominant, he missed 2 full seasons due to injury and recovery, yes? He may be a natural, but he's also really just getting his feet wet in pro ball. Really, he's pretty much on the fast track right now. I'm not going to slam the Twins on this one.

    Why shouldn't the Twins cut Mauer?

     

    IF the team is better w/o him (say, Sano at DH, Park at 1B and whomever in RF).......why not cut him? I'm not saying they should, but why not?

     

    They are spending the money whether he plays or not. His replacement on teh 25 man roster would cost less than $500K a year most likely (since it is most likely a rookie).

     

    I don't think the Twins would ever flat out cut Mauer. But I have maintained that after the past two seasons, should he perform the same this year, or further regress, he may simply decide it's time to move on with his life and his family and hopefully continued good health, (no further injuries or concussions) There is a lot of pride in a top athlete. But failure to perform as you have in the past, as you wish you still could, can wear on a player. Not all players hold on and scratch and claw until it's over.

     

    I wonder, would the Twins nudge him that direction as well? I have maintained he could be offered deffered money, or a role with the organization...say a personal services contract...that would offset any lost income from retiring. I know he's still got a couple big financial years ahead, but he's also made a bunch, is set for life, has a young family, and there is the whole pride issue of "I can't do it any more".

     

    I was hopeful he would rebound in his 3rd year post concussion. He's turned in to a solid 1B, and he's a veteran LH bat in a lineup that leans right. If he could recapture even some of his past ability, hit .280 ish with a quality OB%, doubles, a few HR and some clutch hitting. Maybe he still will. But sadly, it's just not looking that way right now.

    The bad news is that the Twins are quiet on the rumor front for the July 2 international free agent signing period. Sano, Polanco, Kepler, Santana, Arcia- they've had a lot of success there (although the more recent signings are heard about less than the Maytag repairman) and it would be a good way to counter the lingering perception of cheapness. The Braves are tied to 10 of the top 30, including one player considered to be the best since Sano.

    The bad news is that the Twins are quiet on the rumor front for the July 2 international free agent signing period. Sano, Polanco, Kepler, Santana, Arcia- they've had a lot of success there (although the more recent signings are heard about less than the Maytag repairman) and it would be a good way to counter the lingering perception of cheapness. The Braves are tied to 10 of the top 30, including one player considered to be the best since Sano.

    The Braves are rebuilding, that's smart. The Twins are...... Who freaking knows

     

    The bad news is that the Twins are quiet on the rumor front for the July 2 international free agent signing period. Sano, Polanco, Kepler, Santana, Arcia- they've had a lot of success there (although the more recent signings are heard about less than the Maytag repairman) and it would be a good way to counter the lingering perception of cheapness. The Braves are tied to 10 of the top 30, including one player considered to be the best since Sano.

     

    It is a strange way to run a business.




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