Surprises Mark Twins Opening Day Roster

Well, that's not really how it works. They were very unlucky last year in terms of win/loss. That's the kind of logic AZ used last year, and now their GM and President are fired. 

 

You have to look at how they arrived at 59 games.....they probably should have 65 or so last year, given how they actually played. Also, if you aren't expecting better years from Buxton and Sano, and much better OF defense this year, you are probably losing a few wins in your prediction, imo.

 

72 is my number.

I agree Sano and Buxton will improve. I think the IF defense, especially the left side is going to be worse. Dozier will likely hit fewer than 40 HRs. The OF defense is improved, but ONLY if Buxton stays healthy and that is quite a big if. If he's hurt, the OF defense is just as bad as last year. It doesn't seem possible, but the pitching could be just as bad, particluarly the bullpen. What if Kintzler doesn't perform as well, he's no sure thing? They have no-one else that you could trust in the 9th inning do they? I'm sticking with 65 until I see something more tangible than they'll just improve because it can't be any worse.

I guess I count Duffy and Tonkin young as well, but frankly none of the other minor league arms did anything in ST to warrant a promotion either. This exact team only won 59 games last year (swapping out catchers). Why are they a lock to win 6+ more games this year? I don't see Castro as being worth 6 games all on his own.

Hughes is healthy (hopefully)

Santiago might produce better results than Ricky Nolasco

Gibson had a bad year and should revert to the mean

Young players should improve (Sano, Buxton, Kepler, Rosario, Polanco)

None of these are gaurenteed, but they are reasons for hope.

RELAX.

Twins have the first pick on waiver wire and they're probably setting up initial roster to minimize 40 man roster decisions.

Let's check the 25 man roster in two weeks before jumping off the bridge.

Hopefully the older bullpen arms have good first halves to flip them for prospects. 

The new management has not even had a chance to be around these players all that long. Or, see them in regular season games. My take on it is that they want to witness these guys and study them, along with a few guys they maybe had been familiar with around the league back in their Cleveland or Texas days. A month or so from now I imagine things will be adjusted according to what they witness.

I don't think that a rush to judgment is in order just yet.

Many have said preseason stats don't matter. Let's give them a chance to evaluate these players in games that do matter before evaluating how they shuffle the deck.

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I don't think that a rush to judgment is in order just yet.

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I agree with this sentiment. However the new management appears to have been sitting on their hands all off-season. This would be a lot easier if we haven't been hearing the "be patient" line for the last 6 years. It's hard not to think the new management is pretty much the same as the old. The roster is constructed the same as it has been. I'm sure there are changes under the cover, but it would be nice if they threw us a bone here or there.

I agree with this sentiment. However the new management appears to have been sitting on their hands all off-season. This would be a lot easier if we haven't been hearing the "be patient" line for the last 6 years. It's hard not to think the new management is pretty much the same as the old. The roster is constructed the same as it has been. I'm sure there are changes under the cover, but it would be nice if they threw us a bone here or there.

I can certainly understand these feelings. For me, if we still had the same GM, I would lean in this direction too. But, since we don't, I feel a bit more inclined to let them settle in for a bit. They have been setting up a new culture, establishing new roles and lines of communication and things like that. I feel they are deserving of some patience. Even if only for a little while. I get what you are saying though too.

My issue with that logic is if this new group is as analytical as we were sold, you could glean a lot of information about Danny Santana or Craig Breslow in a spreadsheet, fangraphs, or internal databases. And I would venture to bet a GM has access to every MLB pitch or AB a particular player has had in their MLB career.

I know this is going to be as popular as warm beer, but with what amounts to a two man bench, DanSan fills a specific need. There maybe another player on the market who can replace him easily. But we don't have him. And EE cannot play OF at all, and RG is remarkably the DH. (that said he can't play OF at all either) Park did put up nice numbers, but required a 40 man move. My other question on Park is whom did he hit the dingers off of? I just have a very hard time believing a veteran player with little exposure to ML fastballs is just going to change his swing and start catching up to big heat. Pitchers in ST work on THEIR stuff, not on opposing hitters. As to Falvine, if this roster was in a vacuum, I would start looking for a new FO. But it's not. Plus they are hamstrung with what I feel is an extremely poor manager. One that may have more of the owners ear than we acknowledge!

RELAX.

 

Twins have the first pick on waiver wire and they're probably setting up initial roster to minimize 40 man roster decisions.

 

Let's check the 25 man roster in two weeks before jumping off the bridge.

 

Hopefully the older bullpen arms have good first halves to flip them for prospects.

Won't those same 40 man decisions still exist in two weeks?

Is Park being held back similar to Kris Bryant after a stellar spring...pure economics? you have done a great job of covering a vast organization in a very short time.  Keep up the good work Seth.  I enjoy reading and being informed.

Park is not on the 40 man roster.  That's why he was sent down. 

No berrios is infuriating..

We will know more at the trade deadline, but a fair assumption is they are looking to contend in 2018. If they decide they want to institute a new 5 year plan, they can still deal Dozier and Ervin at anytime.

While they can trade these guys at any time, the question of return is key. I am of the opinion that in the offseason you have teams interested that may be out of it in July. And right now Dozier had two years left vs 1 year and 2 months in July. And the guy put up 40 plus HR last year. Odds are stacked against an increase in his stock price.

A similar case could be made for Ervin Santana.

The big issue for me is we have been terrible since 2011. If we were to ask ourselves which actions have the Twins taken in these 6 years that you would expect given the record? I could count a total of two rebuild type moves. The Span trade and the Revere trade. Two is not enough in six years.

Now I know I just opened the door for someone to tell me that these moves haven't worked out. Had we made 10 of them, several would have worked out. That is what we needed to do.

A few examples would be Dozier. Perkins. Willingham. Creativity around international free agents. Sign some flip candidates in free agency, etc.