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As the Twins close out another disappointing season (though, at least, one that raised expectations and began cementing the cornerstones for the next generation), there will be plenty of blame to go around. As the team decides on its future, there's one gigantic question they will have to answer: Should manager Derek Shelton return for a second year?
The Twins changed operations over the offseason at the levels of ownership (sort of), general manager, and practically half the roster, in addition to Shelton replacing former skipper Rocco Baldelli. Originally perceived as a placeholder choice by Derek Falvey to provide stability for a rebuilding year, Shelton kept a steady hand on the helm as the team undertook significant roster changes within the season. He's made a case to return for a second season. Let's evaluate that case.
Shelton did sign a standard multi-year deal, but that has never guaranteed a manager's return. If Jeremy Zoll wants to put his own preferred pick in place—there are names like Alex Cora and Rob Thomson out there, not to mention Albert Pujols making a case, but it's just as likely that Zoll would prefer to install a less famous person he knows well—he should have the power to do so.
As any intelligent baseball fan knows, evaluating managers is a tricky business. Front offices shape the roster and spearhead game-planning, which often affects the set of choices a manager has even when writing out the lineup card or making moves within a game. For example, Shelton has relied less on pinch-hitting than his predecessor (usually) did. During the 2023 season, Baldelli's tactics led to 397 plate appearances by players who did not start that game. That number fell to 356 in 2024, then plummeted to 236 last season. Under Shelton, there have been just 211 plate appearances for substitutes so far. He's gone to the bench much less often, but Baldelli had also bent in that direction before departing the job. A weak bench naturally begets a greater reliance on one's starters; it's no surprise that Shelton hasn't wanted to use Alex Jackson or Ryan Kreidler especially aggressively.
That influence from front offices is a confounding factor in judging skippers. So is the often errant public perception that shapes narratives around them. Noisy online fans often referred to Baldelli’s “quick hook" with starters, but Shelton has run his rotation much as the previous skipper did—and that’s despite more rookie pitchers who could use the slack, and a pretty atrocious bullpen who could not be trusted. All told, the two managers differ little in how often they use pinch-hitters and in how much of their pitching staff's workload lands on their starters.
|
Rocco Baldelli (Average Between 2019 and 2025) |
Derek Shelton (2026) | |
| Pinch Hitting % | 4.3% | 3.8% |
| Starter IP % | 57.8% | 59.4% |
A better sign of unique improvement for a manager comes in the form of player development. A lot of ideas might come from the front office, but it’s often left to the coaches to get those ideas into the players. Here, Shelton has done well, after it seemed an entire generation had gone bust. Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis emerged from their early slumps. Josh Bell looked cooked early in the season, but has gotten back on track with an .818 OPS since the start of June. Brooks Lee naturally slid from shortstop to third base and currently leads the team in Win Probability Added. Andrew Morris went from a shaky starter to a solid set-up man. Kody Clemens has 25 home runs.
Perhaps the only thing a manager can really do is manage the vibes. Defining that success depends on how the players feel, rather than on any fan perception. From reporting, Baldelli was certainly laid-back, but Shelton isn’t exactly a drill sergeant. As he told the media in a recent scrum, “One of the things I'm most proud of with the culture of our group is [that] I really don't have to say much to them. They handle themselves extremely well." That hasn’t led to any complaints—Zoll brought in veterans like Bell and Taylor Rogers to assist the young talent—but a different tack will be needed next season, as the team gets much, much younger. Kaelen Culpepper and Walker Jenkins are already in the mix. Next year, another handful of rookies could replace departing veterans.
FanGraphs projected the Twins for 77 wins for the season. With just under two dozen to go, they are likely to end up at… 77 or so wins. That’s not a successful season, but it’s hard to say Shelton did anything to cause whatever failure one ascribes to the club. The schizophrenic feeling of the season—a running problem for this team for multiple years now—feels impossible to solve. Could a different manager break that spell?
If the Twins bring back Shelton, I won’t be surprised or aggrieved. As long as Shelton stops yelling at robots, I don’t think he did much wrong that cannot be placed at the feet of the front office.
But there is always an opportunity cost. As the Twins reshape for a new generation, the club could transform the feeling in and outside the clubhouse. The organization's churn has created some momentum; it might be wise to sustain that by continuing to make changes.
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