Recency Bias

Few reasons for hope? The lineup will have 2 recent top 10 prospects, a top 50 prospect, and a top 100 prospect. The staff could have guys like May, Berrios, and Mejia in it.

The lineup will be fine and potentially exciting. We all know this.

But if the extent of our rotation's improvement is staked on May, Berrios, and Mejia then that solidifies why some of us don't see big improvement coming this season. We'd be extremely fortunate if more than one of those players held down a 4.50 ERA all year. It's more likely that group will struggle a lot this year with Berrios still figuring out his struggles, Mejia needing to see if he can make the jump, and May needing to re-acclimate to starting while staying healthy. These guys obviously need to pitch a lot and show us what we have in them. But I'm not going to delude myself into believing this pitching staff won't be a dreadfully annoying dead weight around our neck all year. Hopefully they get long auditions to work things out during another rebuilding/development year and we aren't still wondering what we have in 2018 with them.

I wasn't super disappointed by the offseason since there weren't many options out there that made sense. I kind of hoped the front office had some creative ideas up their sleeve to surprise us, but I can't fault them for what wasn't there. It is what it is. Nick mostly summed up my thoughts on that a few posts ago.

For better or worse the new FO has hitched their wagon to this idea.  From their Twinsfest comments they think they have a pretty good team here that vastly underperformed.

 

That's a dicey belief to hitch your wagon to.  It may end up defining their stay here one way or the other.

 

I, for one, would've liked to see more done this offseason to add assets to the bullpen.  I think that could loom large.

I think it's fair to say this. They've also said they haven't set the roster yet. I'm hoping for a bullpen move. I keep reading statements that the Twins are the "worst team" in baseball. Talent-wise, I don't buy this. Apparently, neither do the Twins.

There are realistic and advisable things a GM can do to improve talent in an effort to improve the record. There are ill-advised and/or unrealistic ideas presented on TD all the time, like trading Dozier for players that were not ever going to be packaged in a trade for him (unrealistic) or for DeLeon straight up (ill-advised). If Falvey does nothing to change the BP roster, I'll be critical of that non-move.

I agree with Nick. A slightly better BP via addition would help, as will Castro. After that, I personally attributed a lot of the underperformance to Molitor's subpar managing, some very key performance disappointments, some caused by injury, others not so explainable, and some bad luck.

I for one am happy that Falvey believes the talent is vastly better than last year's record.

then why fire Terry, if there are no real issues?

For dozens of reasons other than a belief that you've isolated the issue by declaring there to be a dearth of talent.

Well, I don't mean to harp, but truly, given the field managerial performance the last couple of years, on a 100+ loss team- can you really expect things to be that much better?  The way Molly gacked up handling of the young players, those lineups that seemed pulled out of a crazy hat, the bizarre in-game decisions--  I think they should have cleaned out the dugout first.

Yeah, this excuse of "FA won't sign with losing teams" is a falsehood. Good players sign with bad teams all the time!
Padres and Mariners have been doing it for years
 

Yup, those FA signings sure made the Padres better.

I'm not sure how anyone can say the lineup will be fine.

Sano and Dozier are the only two who have a very good chance to be above average at the dish. I was impressed with Kepler last year, but he only had a 98 OPS+, which is well below average for a corner OF. So those three I feel "ok" with

The rest?

Lots of question marks up and down the roster.

I certainly don't think everyone knows it will be fine...

I think Polanco will be fine. And it's not like you're going to bump Buxton. Kepler did well for a young rookie. There's a lot of potential for good performances there. Mauer isn't a black hole, even if he is underwhelming for a first basemen. He should be moved down the lineup though.

LF, 1B, and DH are three suspect spots which I wish we'd done more to bolster. Thankfully, they are also the easiest to upgrade in any given offseason so I seriously hope for those to be addressed before 2018. Catcher is a black hole, but that's not a simple fix for any team.

There's a good chance this team approaches top 10 in run production. I'm okay with that improvement for 2017. By 2018 they should be well within the top 10. Hopefully it isn't wasted by bottom 3 pitching again.

The problem as I see it was that there was little to do on the position player side. Catcher was the only place where there was a clear need where FA had a clear upgrade. Everywhere else is manned by people that need repetition. Like it or not, that's what it is. On the SP side, where the need was clearest, there were no clear upgrades in FA.  Again, that's what it is... these guys have to take some steps forward. I don't like the odds, but Nick is right that a ton of things went wrong last year.  You cannot discount that.

They need to get to and/or catch the ball. Batting is fine.  The differential between ERA and other metrics say that  their fielding may be worse than their pitching

So, what exactly should the Twins have done differently - that we know was under their control (e.g., not trading Dozier for a fair return)? 

What I've read so far is that they should have signed a reliever with possible trade deadline value. OK, I don't necessarily disagree, but last year only a quarter of players signed to such deals were traded, and none for a legit prospect.

That is not enough of a variance to justify the complaints. There needs to be more - a lot more - that the Twins clearly <a> could have and <b> should have done. What are those things?

When it comes to current pitching, IMO without a doubt the Twins are the worst team in baseball when talking from a talent standpoint.

I guess I wouldn't necessarily take exception to this belief, especially if you limited it to starters. Fixing the problem is another matter. I don't have any clever ideas about that, and frankly, I haven't really been exposed to any on TD, especially this off-season.

The thing I find least digestible is that, even if every single starter performed in accordance to the more optimistic expectations out there for them, the current staff would probably be pretty much "average". Again, I don't know how a GM fixes this problem entirely in one or two off-seasons.

I'm not sure anyone is asking it to be fixed in one season, what some are asking is, why hasn't that started at all? Now, I think they will deal ESan at the break, unless he struggles, and will get pitching in return. I have my doubts Dozier is ever traded for more than JDL, or at all.....so they either need to draft and develop better, or sign FAs, because they have no other veterans to trade that are likely to return anything. Which is a bummer.

 

Are expectations of some too high, (and I'd argue some too low)? sure. Is that not the nature of fandom, which is a completely irrational thing in the first place? Yes, yes it is. Fans are under no obligation to be patient at all.

I'm not commenting about fans' patience at all. The question I have is, if you were the GM, hired at the same time as Falvey, what move(s) would you have made to improve the starting rotation in 2017? Other than giving Trevor May a legitimate shot at a spot, which the GM has done.

And even if, as the GM, you had decided to ignore adding a lot of talent in 2017 and to abandon the goal of improving the record in 2017 through outside means besides Castro, what moves would you have tried to make this off-season to improve in 2018 and beyond, besides the one Falvey apparently worked hard to accomplish (Dozier) without success?

We're talking in this thread about the prospects of an improved record in 2017, and how moves by Falvey this off-season could possible be made or maybe should have been made. And how internal improvements might impact the record in 2017. There's decent consensus that a FA BP arm or three would be kind of a no-brainer, and a consensus that to-date Falvey hasn't adequately addressed the BP.

You'd agree that a majority believe a straight-up trade of Dozier for JDL would have been ill-advised?

That wasn't the point at all, was it?

Alexi Rameriz,  Brandon Morrow,  Josh Johnson, Benoit, Orlando Hudson. Man they sure made San Diego better. Shields was the only big name free agent to sign in San Diego in the last 10 years.  Scrap heap, over the hill, reclamation projects  similar to what Ryan signed.  So what is the point of claiming San Diego can sign free agents?