Player Predictions: CF Byron Buxton

.255/.319/.440 (.759), 31 steals, 14 triples, 10 homers

Valencia rode infield singles and bloopers to a career year in 2010.   If Buxton can get a few of those early to help him relax and not stress out about average I can see him doing very well.     Of course, a slow start can get into anyone's head but especially rookies.   If he gets on less than .320 I will be a little disappointed.    I will predict a .350+ OBP after the break which will be pretty awesome from the leadoff spot..

I'm not even going to worry about Buxton's hitting until after the All Star break. What worries me is that he apparently doesn't have a knack for stealing bases. How can a guy who runs that fast get caught that often?

I remember Greg Gagne was like that - super fast, no knack for stealing bases. After a while, he just stopped trying. I hope that doesn't happen to Buxton. 

.255/.319/.440 (.759), 31 steals, 14 triples, 10 homers

I would take this for 2016.

I would be thrilled with a 726 OPS. Guessing he is a 3.5 to 4 WAR player with those numbers

31 steals? His success rate has been pretty bad.....you all think he'll improve that? You think he'll be on base enough to even get that many opportunities?

 

I am going with the under on Seth's projections, I am Missouri on this player right now.

I am more concerned about the on base part.   I would  like to see a lot of bunts down the 3rd base side.     I am less concerned about the stolen bases.   I want him to try just enough make the other team think about it.

I'm going to peg Buck's age 22 season to that of Andrew McCutchen. 

.286/.365./471, 12 HR, 22 SB, RoY candidate.

I'm going to peg Buck's age 22 season to that of Andrew McCutchen. 

 

.286/.365./471, 12 HR, 22 SB, RoY candidate.

But I'd replace some of those homers with triples. I'd guess he'll get his power this year from doubles and triples. 

31 steals? His success rate has been pretty bad.....you all think he'll improve that? You think he'll be on base enough to even get that many opportunities?

 

I am going with the under on Seth's projections, I am Missouri on this player right now.

I don't think he'll get 31 steals, but I very much support the hope that he will.  I'd take the under on 20 this year.  He's got a lot to learn about it.  But I like the optimism and hope it turns out to be true.

What does it mean to be Missouri on a player?  I assume that is one of the weirdest auto-corrects ever?

Just for the record, Buxton's career Minor League stolen base success rate is 78% (94/121) which is, in so sense of the word, bad.

I wanted a context for that so I looked up Trout's minor league success rate.  108/136, 79.4%.  I was expecting it to be higher.  So I checked Dee Gordon- 77.2%.

The other two top stealers in MLB last year- Billy Hamilton, 82.5% in the minors, and Charlie Blackmon, 71.8% in the minors.

Hopefully Buxton is just being more tentative in the majors and can turn it up once he gets some confidence.  And quits being hurt.

Missouri is the "show me" state, so he has to prove himself and not go on his hype.

As Seth stated, Buck starts slow at every level and his athleticism allows him to adjust. I expect him to hit sub .220 for the first 2-4 weeks but he will more than substantiate the Twins confidence in him with his defense. I think what he hits beginning in May is much more important, and I expect him to hit at least .270 as the weather warms up. I am so glad the future for Buck is finally here.

I'm going to do this somewhat differently.  I think Buxton will basically have two seasons within a season (Poor man's 2006 Justin Morneau type season).  In 2006 Morneau on June 9th was batting .235 with a .295 OBP.  Then against the Orioles he hit 2 HR's including a Walk-Off blast in the 12th inning.  He then went on an absolute tear the rest of the season.

So my prediction will be like this:

First 81 Games: .242/.281/.396 12 Doubles, 5 triples, 5 HR's

Second 81 Games: .278/.323/.459 15 Doubles, 8 triples 6 HR's

Full Year:.261/.304/.429 27 Doubles, 13 Triples, 11 HR's

Very Optimistic, but I think we should be about him.

Ok, Homers [and I don't mean the old guy that wrote the Iliad and the Odyssey or the fat, yellow dude]

that's a lot of praying.  The whole "So, no surprise that he struggled, but his star shines no less bright than it did a year ago" thing is getting long in the tooth.  Seeing is believing.  His stroke in SP looked a lot better.  Pitch recognition is still an issue. 

Buxton is still a ways from that 5th tool, will probably never get to that level.  But the Twins need the rest of the package in CF this year.  Options?  Yes.  Great options?  No.

Seth, I think your numbers are very close, but I would give AVG & OB a small nudge. I also feel you are being conservative on his Dbls. Natural power and speed should see him mid 20's at least shouldn't it?

I agree that Buck will have 2 seasons in one. He wasn't ready when called up, and still may not be fully ready. But his last month was much better than his first go-round. Further, he has shown the reported ability to adjust and improve as the season goes along.

Man...if only his 2014 hadn't been such a trainwreck. We'd probably be talking leadoff and top ROY candidate

If 2014 hadn't been a trainwreck I assume he would be ineligible for ROY this year.  But I get what you are saying.  I still think he can and is one of the top ROY candidates. 

Look at his improvements from the first week of Spring Training until now.  He still is Strikeout prone, but from "the eye test" he looks night and day better.

Also think it's reasonable to expect a tale of two seasons. Since this is the toughest jump, I'm guessing we may see a rocky first several weeks.

Even if that happens, you make like a Bruckheimer movie and keep sending him out there until he gets his confidence back. At the end of the year, I think his batting line will be fine overall, and downright encouraging when you just look at the latter half.

He still can't recognize/hit a major league breaking pitch. Until that changes, that's all he's going to see. I say his OPS will be under .700 for most of the season.  Hope I'm wrong.