Out Of Options But Not Out Of The Plans

I think Santana and Tonkin are the most easily replaced.  If Arcia is good, he has power from the left side that we don't have otherwise.  I'm hoping he mashes in ST, makes the team, and finds at least semi-regular ABs in the middle of the lineup, protecting our very right-handed regulars.

But I'll be darned if we can find any fault with the Twins allocating relief innings to the likes of Roenicke, Duensing, Swarzak, Deduno, Guerrier, Stauffer, and Thompson over the past few years...

A career era+ of 85 and a FIP over 4 will get other people chances. Also never mind that when some of your list were pitching, Tonkin had just progressed to AA

I fear most that Arcia's "attitude" is going to be a major factor in his future with this club. Frankly, I could care less if he's arrogant, abrasive or sulking, but I know the team has a history of caring.

 

I get it, I don't like those kinds of co-workers. However I DO have those kinds of co-workers, most of us who work with more than a handful of people do. The rest of us have to suck it up and live with it.

Arcia gets a bad wrap for his "attitude", kid got down on himself last year and it just snowballed from there.  He's grown up over the offseason, "learned alot about me" and is out to prove that he can play everyday in the outfield.   Of the three out of options guys, he's the most likely to make you say "crap, I can't believe we let him go for a bag of balls."  Left handed power bats don't grow on trees...

I asked Arcia yesterday how long he'd been here.  He said after the season he took 10 days off and then came and has been here ever since.

He knows what's at stake and is busting butt, and having a good time doing it.  I see no attitude.  Today during bp, 5 swing rotations he launched 4 of 5 over the fence.  I don't see us giving up on him.

But I'll be darned if we can find any fault with the Twins allocating relief innings to the likes of Roenicke, Duensing, Swarzak, Deduno, Guerrier, Stauffer, and Thompson over the past few years...

Spy, I find it amusing that anyone would claim there's been a lack of fault-finding as we paraded this collection out. The complaint I hear that I DO push back on is this mostly false narrative that young, MLB-ready pitchers have been systemically blocked or held back because the Twins have this rigid and brainless strategy in place to plunk a bunch of mediocre veterans out there in favor of qualified youngsters. You seem to be quite certain about this veteran strategy, no?

My theory is that the Twins have a strategy to build from within via draft choices. The problem is that sometimes the strategy cannot be implemented due to a tragic dearth of young MLB-ready talent. I would argue that, had Burdi, or Tonkin, or any of the other prospects shown the coaches anything last year, you would have seen them at Target Field. 

You're attempting to make the case that Tonkin being passed up was ill-advised, right? I certainly doubt that Allen and Molitor trusted him but were over-ridden by Ryan. They all appear to disagree with an assessment that Tonkin could contribute.

So, everyone I know WAS cringing at all the veterans you listed and rightly blasting Ryan for it. Meanwhile, lots of people on TD were declaring Burdi and Meyer to be ready, or calling for some of the other high-velo guys to be promoted. Often ignored was a reasonable discussion about exactly which of these young pitchers WAS actually ready to contribute and therefore a better candidate than a current veteran. Frankly, if the big push is for Ryan O'Rourke to come up and replace Thompson, I say don't even bother. But in any event let's dispense with this false narrative that the Twins have a strategy to play crappy veterans instead of MLB-ready young players.

Tonkin moved up to AAA in May 2013.  All of those listed pitched a considerable amount with the Twins beyond that point.  Actually all but Roenicke pitched plenty with the Twins in 2014-2015 ahead of Tonkin, I suppose I could have left him out of this specific example and restricted it to just those two years.

Roenecke only pitched for the Twins in 2013, Deduno was done by the middle of 14. Swarzak was long relief, Duensing was lefty, a role Tonkin can't fill.  None of Tonkin's win probability numbers look very good. On the other hand he was a late round draft pick. C+ and on the fringe of prospect ratings. Tonkin really has exceeded expectations. The problem is effectiveness. The Twins covet effective at what you do. Tonkin has not been that.

I mostly agree, bird. There werent big league ready arms bursting from the minor league seams. and i'll contend there still aren't as we approach the 2016 season, either. If by mid season one minor leaguer is an actual bullpen asset, they should consider themselves fortunate.

So you're right...the "Twins have a strategy to play crappy veterans instead of MLB-ready young players" theory is wrong.

In its place is a strategy to play crappy veterans in place of quality (and expensive) veterans.

Do you have a link to back up this last statement?

Kidding. No argument about this from me.

In 2014, it was Meyer being passed over for promotion (when he was pitching well) for a bunch of 30-year-old rookie types who are no longer with the organization. In 2015, it was the Pelfrey-May thing. Now in 2016 there are still enough mediocre vets around and promising young guys in the mix that we might see the situation play out again. I wouldn't call it brainless, but maybe more like an irrational bias against young guys, whether due to perceived lack of maturity, or belief that they're fragile, or who knows what.

I get your point, but I believe the greater issue is an irrational bias in favor of young guys by fans due to an exaggerated perception about how likely they would be to make a contribution. I'd suggest Meyer in 2014 is a classic example of this.

True. However, as a matter of preference, I would rather see a young guy come up and struggle than watch an end-of-the-road vet like Nolasco pitch slightly-below average in the attempt to salvage some value from him.

 

In the case of Meyer, he wasn't called up in 2014 so we don't know. If we hypothetically kept Berrios in the minors for the entire 2016 season I would imagine he would hit a real rough patch at some point like Meyer did, and his confidence would sag, too, just like Meyer's apparently did.

I think most everyone would prefer to see the young guy be the one to step up. Emotionally, I felt deflated by the announcements of Nolasco, Stauffer, and now guys like Kintzler and Strong are emotional buzzkills. However, other buzzkills have been provided by injury and disappointing performances from the young guys.

In the case of Meyer, WE don't know what he might've done had he been called up in 2014. But we should acknowledge the reality that his coaches had their fingers on the pulse and were in position to make a credible prediction about that. They might tell you his confidence didn't sag, but his arm angle did. Our desire to finally see these prospects at Target Field probably inhibits our willingness to accept as reasonable any explanation as to why a player wash't promoted. 

Show me any stat or find me a quote that shows a correlation between a guy switching positions and hitting better. Because otherwise both of these make more sense than "He plays better in the OF":

 

- He had an unnaturally high BABIP

- He was new to the league and scouting reports hadn't adjusted yet

 

Also, last year he played three games in CF. He hit .182/.250/.364/.614. Didn't act as an elixir there.

 

The eye test does not create correlation and it certainly doesn't create a cause-effect relationship. Sano won't hit any different because he plays OF rather than 3B. He may field worse but he won't hit worse.

 

And the Mauer comp isn't comical. A guy switched position (like Santana) and had a dropoff in success. But no one argues that he'd do better if he could just catch again. They blame rational things like age, his batting eye, injury etc.

You're a funny guy:  you want to use statistics, then think they'll apply to 3 games. 

Statistical analysis is a useful tool.  In the end, players will still be judged by the "eye test". 

I think it'd be wise to have him play 2B, 3B, and SS in 2016, maybe even a handful of games at the different outfield positions. Nothing wrong with that. He may be able to hit better than Santana... maybe Nunez, and probably will... Defensively, I don't think he's as good at any of the positions as Santana or Nunez. At least not now.

That's unfortunate if true. If Polanco can't field as well as Nunez they should probably cut him. Nunez is below average at all three infield positions and trending downward. Santana is bad enough at SS that they want him to play outfield.