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    Nine Deals, One Clear Win: Revisiting the Twins' 2025 Trade Deadline

    One trade has already saved the rotation. Another may have broken the bullpen. Ranking every Twins deadline deal by what it actually means in 2026.

    Cody Christie
    Image courtesy of © John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images

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    The Minnesota Twins spent last summer’s trade deadline walking a fine line between cutting payroll, reshaping the roster, and trying to remain competitive in the future. Now that the 2026 season is underway, it is much easier to evaluate those deals based on their actual impact rather than on deadline-day reactions.

    To evaluate the overall impact, it's not enough to look at what the Twins gained; we also have to look at the roster impact had no trade been made. Some have barely registered on the current roster. Others have already altered the team's trajectory in meaningful ways. Here is a look back at the most impactful deadline moves from the perspective of the impact on the 2026 roster.

    Trades That Seem Unlikely to Impact the 2026 Roster
    A few deals simply have not mattered much in the grand scheme of the current season. Enrique Jimenez for Chris Paddack and Randy Dobnak has not produced any noticeable effect on the major league club. Paddack and Dobnak were moved largely to clear innings and payroll flexibility, while Jimenez remains far from contributing in Minnesota.

    Ryan Gallagher and Sam Armstrong for Willi Castro also fall into that category. Castro was a free agent at the end of the year. So far, the return has not impacted the current roster in any meaningful way either, though Gallagher was recently promoted to AAA-St. Paul. 

    Garrett Horn for Danny Coulombe was another low-level move that has not significantly changed the outlook of the 2026 club. Coulombe provided bullpen depth, but neither side of the trade has created lasting ripple effects.

    6. Hendry Mendez and Geremy Villoria for Harrison Bader
    This move always looked like a short-term rental for Philadelphia, and that is exactly what it became. Bader was heading toward free agency, so there was never a realistic scenario where he would still be patrolling the outfield for Minnesota this season. The interesting part of the trade now revolves around Hendry Mendez.

    Mendez earned a spot on the 40-man roster this winter and recently reached Triple-A. There are still several left-handed hitting corner outfielders ahead of him on the organizational depth chart, but injuries have a way of opening doors quickly. A major league debut sometime this season feels possible if Minnesota needs offensive reinforcements.

    2026 Impact: Mendez has a chance to debut, so this trade still feels relatively low impact for 2026.

    5. Matt Mikulski and $70 Million in Salary Relief for Carlos Correa
    This trade still feels surreal. The Twins moved Correa and attached it to a massive amount of salary relief, only to largely pocket the financial flexibility rather than reinvest it in the roster. Before his recent season-ending ankle injury, Correa was actually playing well and could have helped stabilize Minnesota’s lineup during the first month of the season.

    At the same time, the injury also reinforces why some in the organization were willing to move on from the long-term commitment. Correa’s absence likely would have become a major issue for Minnesota regardless of where he played.

    Mikulski has been released from the organization, leaving the biggest takeaway from this deal centered on ownership’s financial decisions rather than the actual baseball return.

    2026 Impact: The Twins cleared Correa’s contract but failed to meaningfully reinvest the savings into improving the current roster.

    4. Eduardo Tait and Mick Abel for Jhoan Duran
    This one has become complicated quickly. Tait remains years away from the major leagues, making him difficult to evaluate in the context of the current roster. Abel has spent much of the year dealing with injuries after suffering a setback in his recovery from right elbow inflammation. His recent tricep impingement and cortisone shot pushed his timeline back even further.

    Meanwhile, Duran looked dominant before suffering a strained left oblique. Prior to the injury, he posted a 1.35 ERA with five saves in 6 2/3 innings before recently returning to action. The frustrating part for Minnesota is obvious. A healthy Duran could be helping hold together one of the worst bullpens in baseball right now. Even if Abel eventually becomes a useful arm, the Twins desperately miss the stability Duran brought to the late innings.

    2026 Impact: Minnesota badly misses Duran’s late-inning dominance, while Abel’s injury issues have delayed any return value.

    3. James Outman for Brock Stewart
    Few moves have aged worse in the short term. Outman entered the season out of options, which essentially forced Minnesota to keep him on the active roster. Unfortunately, his production has been almost nonexistent. Through his first 28 games, Outman has produced a staggering -0.4 rWAR while occupying a roster spot that could be going to a younger or more productive player. The bigger issue is roster flexibility. Keeping Outman on the bench has prevented the Twins from cycling through alternative options that may provide more offensive upside.

    Stewart opened the season injured, but recently returned and made his first appearance over the last week. Even limited bullpen help would have been valuable for this roster, considering how disastrous the relief corps has looked for much of the year.

    2026 Impact: Outman has negatively impacted the roster, while Stewart’s return to health could have helped stabilize Minnesota’s bullpen.

    2. Kendry Rojas and Alan Roden for Louis Varland and Ty France
    This trade keeps looking worse by the week for Minnesota. The Twins bullpen has completely unraveled at times during the opening stretch of the season, and Varland has emerged as one of the best relievers in the American League. After stepping into Toronto’s closer role, Varland captured AL Reliever of the Month honors and has given the Blue Jays legitimacy at the back end of games. Minnesota’s roster could desperately use that exact presence right now.

    Roden has battled injuries at Triple-A and has not impacted the major league roster, while Rojas continues flashing electric stuff that may ultimately fit best in a bullpen role long term. The evaluation overwhelmingly centers on Varland. Right now, it is difficult to look at the Twins' bullpen struggles and not wonder how different games might feel with Varland handling the ninth inning.

    2026 Impact: Varland’s breakout as Toronto’s closer has magnified how much the Twins need reliable bullpen arms right now.

    1. Taj Bradley for Griffin Jax
    This is a clear win for Minnesota. While several other deadline moves have created frustration, the acquisition of Taj Bradley has been one of the few unquestioned bright spots on the roster. Bradley has emerged as the team’s most valuable pitcher, leading the club with a 1.7 rWAR while posting a 154 ERA+ through his first eight starts.

    Provided he gets past this recent pectoral injury, Bradley gives the Twins a legitimate chance to win every fifth day. Meanwhile, Jax has struggled since arriving in Tampa Bay as the Rays attempt to transition him into a starting role. The raw material remains intriguing, but the results have not been consistent.

    For a team searching for rotation stability after injuries and inconsistency, Bradley’s emergence has been enormous. Unlike some of the other deadline moves that created long-term questions, this trade already looks like one of the few decisions that is actively helping Minnesota compete in 2026.

    2026 Impact: Bradley has emerged as Minnesota’s best starter and one of the few clear positives from the 2025 trade deadline.

    Trade deadlines are always judged too quickly. Some deals that looked smart in the moment now appear disastrous because of injuries, roster construction problems, or lack of reinvestment from ownership. Others that drew skepticism initially are beginning to show real value.

    What stands out most from the Twins’ 2025 deadline activity is how uneven the results have become. Minnesota clearly weakened parts of the bullpen and sacrificed valuable depth, and the consequences are showing up almost nightly this season. At the same time, Bradley’s emergence gives the organization at least one foundational piece to point toward as evidence that not every move was designed strictly to cut costs.

    Unfortunately for the Twins, one successful trade does not erase the growing list of questions surrounding the rest of the roster.


    Do you agree with the rankings above? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

     

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    Featured Comments

    For several of these deals, adding up the wins and losses for 2026 misses the point. Castro/Bader, for example, were not going to re-sign with the Twins, and the Twins were not going to the play-offs last year, so it is impossible to judge those trades as negatives in terms of value for the Twins. While they have little chance of positive impact on the Twins in 2026, that wasn't the point of those trades.

     

    4 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

    Correct.

    Outman isn't holding back a prospect. His role is pinch runner (4 of 4 in stolen bases) and defensive replacement. He's started only once in the last two weeks (and got a hit, by the way). Interestingly, his WPA is actually a tiny positive for the year. He's pretty much the second coming of Terrance Gore. 

    The role that Outman is holding down is not necessary for this team, roster a player to not play is ludicrous.  Before the injuries to the OF's in St. Paul, they could have called one up and there would have been plenty of AB's to split between Larnach, Wallner, Martin and whichever prospect between the corner OF spots and DH.  They all could be playing 4 to 5 days a week, it just means Bell is at 1B which is what he was signed for.

    I was happy Jax was traded. Very glad he was removed from the team. Massively overrated with a bad attitude. Getting Taj for him was great. 

    As most have said, I was also upset Varland was traded. Made no sense. Best reliever in the AL now. Rojas has potential, but I dont see his future as a starter. So Best case scenario is we hope he becomes Varland? Absolutely terrible trade. 

    I hope Tait and Abel live up to the hype. Abel was looking decent before injury. I haven't seen Tait play but I've heard he may not have the defense to stick at Catcher? That would be a huge letdown. 

    The other trades are whatever. Expiring contracts for what we could get. 

    22 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

    To some extent the July trades may have hinted at a lack of confidence in the Twins young pitchers (Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa, Morris). If your reputation was supposedly connected to building a strong pitching cohort it seemed odd to go to extreme lengths to add pitching prospects (Abel, Rojas,etc.), while jettisoning established and controlled relief pitchers (Duran, Jax, Varland, Stewart). The trade of the out of favor Griffin Jax for Taj Bradley, at least, brought back an interesting albeit struggling pitcher. 

    I tend to never think of trades in terms of wins and losses but prefer to see how a transaction improves the roster, whether that is to improve balance or talent. I'm not sure Falvey (or whomever was in charge) had all of their wits about them last July.

    Thing is .... the Twins did gain a few players who could help the team (Bradley, Abel, Rojas) and I'll just hope these players progress quickly and become important for the Twins. What is gone ain't coming back.

    Very good point. While we would love to have the likes of Duran, Jax and Varland in the bullpen this season, we DID get back some pretty good players in return. Some of those players (such as Tait) may take another year or two to contribute, but it wasn't a total disaster. If pitchers like Bradley, Abel, and Rojas can stay healthy, we may come out looking pretty darn good before the dust settles. 

    23 hours ago, thelanges5 said:

    I don’t hate the individual trades so much as the number of total trades (except Varland) The lack of meaningful moves/signings in the offseason makes it even worse. Of course the architect (Falvey) is gone, but what was the plan here?

    The OWNERSHIP that didn’t want to spend any money is still here though……..so we have that to look forward to for the foreseeable future.

    9 hours ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

    I was happy Jax was traded. Very glad he was removed from the team. Massively overrated with a bad attitude. Getting Taj for him was great. 

    As most have said, I was also upset Varland was traded. Made no sense. Best reliever in the AL now. Rojas has potential, but I dont see his future as a starter. So Best case scenario is we hope he becomes Varland? Absolutely terrible trade. 

    I hope Tait and Abel live up to the hype. Abel was looking decent before injury. I haven't seen Tait play but I've heard he may not have the defense to stick at Catcher? That would be a huge letdown. 

    The other trades are whatever. Expiring contracts for what we could get. 

    You got the crystal ball out on Rojas as a potential starter…..at age 23?

    How did Louie look as a starter at 23?

    Louie pitched in his first 5 games at MLB level at age 24.

    At age 26 he was 0-6 with a 7.61 ERA.

    Probably need to pump the breaks on breaking down Rojas value as a starter. Thus, the value of the trade is far from being determined.

    9 hours ago, soyouresayingtheresachance said:

    I was happy Jax was traded. Very glad he was removed from the team. Massively overrated with a bad attitude. Getting Taj for him was great. 

    As most have said, I was also upset Varland was traded. Made no sense. Best reliever in the AL now. Rojas has potential, but I dont see his future as a starter. So Best case scenario is we hope he becomes Varland? Absolutely terrible trade. 

    I hope Tait and Abel live up to the hype. Abel was looking decent before injury. I haven't seen Tait play but I've heard he may not have the defense to stick at Catcher? That would be a huge letdown. 

    The other trades are whatever. Expiring contracts for what we could get. 

    Very good point on trades other than Jax - Duran - Varland ……….they were whatever! I don’t get why people here fixate on being concerned about the Brock Stewart trade. He pitched 3 2/3 for Dodgers last year and went on IL …… just started pitching again at MLB level last week. He’s never thrown many innings …. 37 - 15 - 27 innings for ‘25-‘24-‘23 respectively.

    Coulombe - Bader - Castro - Paddack - France  were all free agents & gone in 2 months from the deadline……… anyone that doesn’t think moving Carlos Correa isn’t being rational. Would have been nice to spend at least 50% of $$ saved in Correa trade.

    20 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    Ranking trades based solely on their impact for the Twins 2026 MLB roster is useless.

    It's still too soon to really evaluate most of these deals.

    Losing Varland sucks, but if Rojas can be a guy then it still might not be a bad deal overall, especially if Roden gets healthy. The Duran deal still looks like it might be very good: Abel looked great before getting hurt (so waving off his contributions to 2026 while praising Duran's is fairly dumb) and Tait might be the catcher of the future. You have to give up something to get something, and these deals weren't made solely with 2026 in mind, so evaluating them only through that lens is kind of absurd.

    And the Outman/Stewart deal is pretty meaningless too: Outman has been mostly useless, but Stewart is perpetually hurt. While I wouldn't have made that deal, it's not like you can count on Stewart when planning a bullpen. He's like a bonus if he throws. The Castro deal had zero impact on 2026, but it also had little impact on 2025 for the Twins, negative impact for the Cubs, and Gallagher might be something useful. How is it this low even with such a narrow lens?

    I guess, congrats on getting me to comment?

    Rojas is 23 with 3 pitches with Plus potential.

    At 23 Louie had 1 pitch and didn’t see MLB. At age 26 Louie was 0-6 with a 7.61 ERA. With health, Rojas SEEMS to have #3 maybe #2 starter stuff.

    Louie has made a big shift mentally - he deserves being lauded here for what he’s doing so far in ‘26! The trade of Louie for a left handed power pitcher that’s FIVE years younger seems to make a bunch of sense to me.

    On 5/11/2026 at 8:55 AM, Over The Hill Again said:

    Said it then, still feel it now: the Varland trade not only made no tactical sense but also came across as a big middle finger to the fanbase. 

    My heart sank when right at the end varland was gone and a falvey said we love Louie but it was a deal we couldn't pass up. he ruined the team with his horrible mistakes at the trade deadline except for Bradley. now ownership is going to keep paying the bills and not reinvesting any money into the team. just picking up released players and this could go on for several years. the team cannot survive in this crazy money environment the way they are operating things. 60 years being a follower of the Minnesota twins and it's getting worse than ever. second base and third base currently need to be put back into AAA and I think we all thought he would go down too. but he's doing well. Right field needs to go down and there are people who could brighten our days a little bit when it comes to baseball in AAA.

    3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

    Rojas is 23 with 3 pitches with Plus potential.

    At 23 Louie had 1 pitch and didn’t see MLB. At age 26 Louie was 0-6 with a 7.61 ERA. With health, Rojas SEEMS to have #3 maybe #2 starter stuff.

    Louie has made a big shift mentally - he deserves being lauded here for what he’s doing so far in ‘26! The trade of Louie for a left handed power pitcher that’s FIVE years younger seems to make a bunch of sense to me.

    I agree.

    Will it work out? That remains to be seen but trading 60 to 80 innings a year for 150 to 200 inning a year is a move you make. You trade bullpen for starters when you get the chance. Quality of course being the key. 

    Doesn't always work out but sometimes it does.

    The Twins acquired Abel, Tait, Mendez, Bradley, Rojas, Rodan and Outmann.

    It is now up to the Twins to turn these deals into winning deals. If the Twins fail to develop who they acquired... they will lose the deals in the end. We are nowhere near making that determination so this article is a little premature. 

    I do disagree in regards to Stewart and Outman. I was OK with that deal at first but I'm now against it. 

    If this is all Outman is going to be utilized for. This was basically giving Stewart away and I don't think of Stewart as a low value... just move him off the roster deal. 

    You are correct about Stewart's injury history but with the state of our current bullpen. He should be on our injured list. If this is what we are doing with Outman... we should have traded Stewart for a 19 year old that is years from the 40 man.   

    The Dodgers kept him through the off-season. The Dodgers like all teams have a ton of 40 man pressure. It's a tough 40 man to remain on.

    Stewart could have been booted off the 40 man roster this off-season but the Dodgers booted others off the 40 man instead including Banda. The Dodgers also could have booted Outman off the 40 man roster at any point during the time he was burning up his options. They also didn't... they kept Outman. If he has no value to other clubs... he would sail through the DFA process.  

    I just don't think this was a deal of players that the teams didn't care about.

    I think both teams saw value and I think other teams saw value as well or they would have been DFA'd already. It's up to the Twins to make this trade a win and I don't believe they will.   

    On 5/11/2026 at 9:08 AM, tony&rodney said:

    To some extent the July trades may have hinted at a lack of confidence in the Twins young pitchers (Woods Richardson, Matthews, Festa, Morris). If your reputation was supposedly connected to building a strong pitching cohort it seemed odd to go to extreme lengths to add pitching prospects (Abel, Rojas,etc.), while jettisoning established and controlled relief pitchers (Duran, Jax, Varland, Stewart). The trade of the out of favor Griffin Jax for Taj Bradley, at least, brought back an interesting albeit struggling pitcher. 

    I tend to never think of trades in terms of wins and losses but prefer to see how a transaction improves the roster, whether that is to improve balance or talent. I'm not sure Falvey (or whomever was in charge) had all of their wits about them last July.

    Thing is .... the Twins did gain a few players who could help the team (Bradley, Abel, Rojas) and I'll just hope these players progress quickly and become important for the Twins. What is gone ain't coming back.

    I think you are correct about the trades indicating a lack of confidence in Matthew’s, Festa etc.  And they have been proven correct so far. 
    Regarding trading the expiring contract players we win those trades automatically because we weren’t bringing them back and their contributions for the rest of 2025 were not needed because the Twins weren’t winning. Seems like this is the kind of trade Falvey had success with. 

    Plain and simple you don't gut your BP on a team that has a starting staff that has a hard time going 5 innings. And now you see what that has done for this season. The FO has been looking across the waiver wire to bring one dead arm pitcher after another. 

    As for players like France or Bader and Castro trading them was moves that were ok to make. The team was going nowhere and they were FA at seasons end. And finding someone to take C4 was basically the same move as the Donaldson move. And now seeing the injury C4 has that maybe a career changer.

    On 5/11/2026 at 12:17 PM, Trov said:

    Who would you use to replace him with?  Who do you want to sit on the end of the bench to pinch run and play defense at end of games instead of him? If you want a prospect called up for Outman, than you really want Wallner, Larnch, Martin, or Buck's time to get cut down. Possibly Bell as well since he mostly DH's and any of them could DH or give a prospect chance to DH.  Point is, you are not replacing Outman in the lineup, you are replacing someone else, or just asking the prospect to sit on bench and not get chance to hit.  It is not about Outman, his roll is limited. 

    Kyler Fedko couldn’t be any worse then James outman. Probably would love to sit at the end of a major league bench and provide what you stated? If the bar is a guy who can hit .125 and play shaky CF and ok LF and RF and getting a few pinch running appearances I think you try Fedko out for a few weeks. Can’t be any or much worse and he’s a righty.




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