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Leadoff hitters: They just don’t make ‘em like they used to. Every team can’t have their own Luis Arraez (though that’s not for lack of trying, given how many teams he’s played for in the last three years). The Twins don’t really have one, either.
Edouard Julien, Arraez’s heir apparent, did a good job in the role in 2023, utilizing a patient approach that produced a .381 on-base percentage and 16 homers in 408 plate appearances, 241 of which came in the leadoff spot (and another 98 as the No. 2 hitter). Unfortunately, that performance didn’t carry over to 2024, and he’s now fighting for a roster spot, let alone the leadoff spot in the order.
Beyond Julien, though, the Twins lack a true leadoff type. These are guys who classically get on base, run well, and see a lot of pitches, working a count to let their teammates get a good look at the pitcher.
Last season, the Twins had four players who got at least 50 plate appearances in the leadoff spot—Julien (148), Willi Castro (227), Manuel Margot (149), and Trevor Larnach. I’m gonna need you to sit down for this next bit. Margot was the most successful player in that spot, primarily against lefties, batting .316.
Castro is probably a more typical leadoff hitter than Larnach, given his speed, but neither has posted great on-base numbers—each were around .330. That’s good, but not great, compared to the league average over the last two years of .316, and it's certainly not where you set the target for the top spot in the order.
I did a little bit of data analysis. It’s not some fancy formula, but I used it a couple of years ago to ask this same question ahead of a 2023 season in which the Twins didn’t have a clear leadoff hitter. Basically, I just ranked Twins projected to make the Opening Day roster (per FanGraphs's Roster Resource) on their ability to get on base, run the bases, and see pitches. At the time, this methodology told me Joey Gallo was the best option, followed by Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, and Byron Buxton.
So here’s what I did again. I looked at every hitter projected to make the team out of spring training based on Roster Resource (plus Austin Martin, to be safe). I then compiled select stats from A) 2023-2024 and B) Steamer projections for each player. The players were ranked 1-14, based on their OBP; Fangraphs baserunning runs per 550 plate appearances; and average pitches per plate appearance (there aren’t projections for P/PA, so I used career averages for the projections).
It won’t come as a surprise that Christian Vázquez was the worst candidate for leading off, which lends a smidgen of credibility to this exercise. So who did the numbers suggest should lead off?
#4 Willi Castro (3rd Past, t-5th Projection)
Past Rankings: 4th OBP (.334), 2nd BsR (1.6), 5th P/PA (3.92)
2025 Projections: 7th OBP (.317), 4th BsR (-0.3), 8th P/PA (3.80)
Castro spent much of last season as the Twins’ leadoff hitter, and this exercise agrees that he’s not a bad choice. His on-base percentage is buoyed by a significant hit-by-pitch rate, which is sticky year-to-year, but not ideal for his health, especially as a player who relies on his speed. Of note, he’s projected to be the fourth-best player on the bases, but his projection is below-average, which speaks to how slow this team is. Buxton, Martin and Harrison Bader are the only three who project to be above-average.
#3 Trevor Larnach (5th Past, 2nd Projection)
Past Rankings: 6th OBP (.329), 5th BsR (0.1), 2nd P/PA (4.07)
2025 Projections: 6th OBP (.325), 9th BsR (-0.8), 2nd P/PA (4.05)
Larnach saw some time as a leadoff hitter, and he ranked high in this exercise, if for no other reason than he wasn’t bad at any of the three traits. He gets on base fairly well, isn’t a disaster on the bases, and he sees a lot of pitches. He’s not an ideal leadoff hitter, but it could be worse.
#2 Edouard Julien (1st Past, 3rd Projection)
Past Rankings: 2nd OBP (.343), t-5th BsR (0.1), 1st P/PA (4.16)
2025 Projections: 2nd OBP (.347), 14th BsR (-1.2), 1st P/PA (4.17)
I mean, obviously, if Julien can return to what he was doing in 2023, there’s no reason to do this exercise. He’s a decent runner who sees a lot of pitches and gets on base at a high clip. But he was not that guy last season, and it’s not even guaranteed that he’ll be on the Opening Day roster in 2025, which brings us to
#1 Matt Wallner (2nd Past, 1st Projection)
Past Rankings: 1st OBP (.371), t-5th BsR (0.1), 3rd P/PA (4.03)
2025 Projections: 4th OBP (.339), 7th BsR (-0.5), 3rd P/PA (4.02)
So under this exercise, Wallner just barely edges out Julien. He’s got a great on-base percentage to this point in his career, and he’s the proverbial sneaky-fast, though his sprint speed has fallen pretty substantially each year of his career. He also sees a lot of pitches.
Of course, it’s probably valid to ask whether OBP should be weighted equally to the other two, so if we count getting on base double, we have a tie between Julien and Wallner. Honestly, Julien and Wallner stand out so far in this exercise that it’s hard to ignore. They’re the only two Twins, under these parameters, that even slightly resemble a leadoff hitter.
It's also valid to question whether there’s a need for a true leadoff hitter in modern baseball. Like, why do we need to wring our hands over this? Why not just stack the lineup with the best hitters at the top, giving them the most plate appearances over the course of the year.
But Wallner is certainly one of the better hitters on this team. He’s got a three-true-outcomes approach, with 50% of his plate appearances resulting in a walk, strikeout, or home run. He’s a Temu Joey Gallo. But it’s worked for him, as he’s 40% better than average thus far in his career. Alongside Correa, Buxton, and Royce Lewis, he’s one of the best four hitters on the team, so putting him (and the three of them) at the top of the order is sensible.
Leading Wallner off could result in some leadoff moonshots, which are great for setting the tone of a game, but it could also result in fewer guys being on base for those moonshots. There’s also another question at play: Rocco Baldelli.
Baldelli has become notorious, infamous, whatever adjective you prefer, for his mid-game line switches, removing his lefties for right-handed pinch-hitters, even in the middle innings, to face lefty relievers. Julien, Larnach, and Wallner alike have been victims of that pattern. And if Wallner is indeed one of the Twins' best hitters, batting him leadoff sets him up for losing plate appearances, paradoxically.
Think about it like this: when the Twins face lefty starters, Baldelli stacks the lineups with righties, often batting subpar bats like Kyle Farmer and Jordan Luplow high. Because they’re higher in the lineup, it’s easier to swap them out early, when the opposing lefty exits. Although that practice gets bats like Wallner’s into the game as soon as possible, batting Wallner himself at the top spot can do the opposite against righty starters, if a team goes to a lefty reliever in the fifth or sixth—especially now, as the Twins will have limited options for bench righties, it may be the case that they only have one pinch-hitting option per game, and if Wallner is the first to come up, that might mean losing him.
That may be digging a bit too far into the weeds, but it could be a consideration. All in all, though, there are definitely worse options for leading off than Wallner, and it would get the Twins more plate appearances for one of their top bats. Sure, he may strike out more than you’d prefer, but I don’t think the Twins are unfounded in giving him an opportunity. They’ve clearly been trying it out, with Wallner leading off four of their first six games (all four that he’s started).
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