Matt Wallner Is Obliterating Baseballs

55 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Regular, yes! Everyday player that you set it and forget it, no! 

He's a 400 PA player on a good team. And he'd likely hit close to 30 HRs in those PAs. 

If the Twins have someone hitting 30ish HRs in 400ish PAs they better not be purposefully limiting their PAs.

10 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I mean, they're doing that right now and he's on a heater exceeding that. He's only started 5 of the last 10 games and on a full season pace of 375 PAs in that stretch. So...idk what to tell you. 

And some of us are saying it's a mistake. There were 212 players to get 400 PAs last season. 29 hit 30 HRs. 52 hit 25. Jose Siri jumps in at the 25 mark as well if you take away all PA requirements. 53 guys in all of baseball hit at least 25 HRs last year. 29 hit 30. 2 guys with fewer than 500 PAs hit 30 HRs. Their names are J.D. Martinez and Aaron Judge. If Wallner can hit 30 HRs in 400 PAs and the Twins are actively keeping him from getting 650+ PAs instead, they are making a mistake.

Obviously his HR per PA numbers would go down with more PAs against lefties, but if you have someone putting up top 30 in baseball numbers in 400 PAs it's doing a disservice to that player and your team to not see if they can adapt and put up top 10 in baseball numbers in 650 PAs.

1 minute ago, NYCTK said:

At a certain point it's up to the player to perform. Matt quite simply sucks, right now, against lefties. It's malpractice to allow him medium or high leverage plate appearance against one. 

169/250/361 this season across AAA and MLB. 

118/189/235 in his major league career. 

We can cry about small samples but he simply hasn't done anything to allow his manager to play him. 

Then why does Manuel Margot have more PAs against righties than lefties? If it's about performance and splits matter, Margot should never see a righty. Ever. But he does. More than he sees lefties. He simply hasn't done anything to allow his manager to play him. But his manager does play him. 

The Twins actively sit Wallner and Larnach and Kirilloff and Julien and all the lefties against lefties to avoid their cumulative .243/.292/.340/.632 line against lefties in 113 PAs but get Margot in there where he's put up a .205/.262/.274/.535 line against righties in 126 PAs. 

74 PAs against lefties is beyond a small sample size. It's a useless sample size. He can't do anything to allow his manager to play him if he isn't first given the chance to play. The Twins have a hard and fast rule that lefties don't face lefties unless they absolutely have to. It's a bad strategy that never allows your lefties to show they can hit lefties. 

Gunnar Henderson in 2022 against lefties: .130/.231/.217/.448 in 26 PAs.
Gunnar Henderson in 2023 against lefties: .210/.293/.324/.618 in 167 PAs.
Gunnar Henderson in 2024 against lefties: .242/.367/.476/.843 in 150 PAs.

Lefties can hit lefties. And lefties who start out poorly against lefties can get better. But they have to be given the chance. 

1 minute ago, JD-TWINS said:

Tony Oliva’s OPS against lefties was sub .675…… saying things about left handed hitters doesn’t make them real. Some lefties hit well against lefty pitching - given!! Not everyone does - most guys grow up facing predominantly RIGHT HANDED PITCHERS (regardless of which side they hit from) so it’s not as big of a deal for RH hitters. Not a big deal for some lefties to face lefties but it’s more common.

The question about Margot comes up every 4 days - it’s nuts!!

When Kepler can’t play - Buxton can’t play - Wallner’s been sent down - Julien’s been sent down - Larnach’s toe is messed up - Kirilloff is hurt or just sucks - Correa is out - Lewis is out, so Castro can’t play OF……..75% of pitchers are RH …….if he’s the only healthy guy available to play OF in maybe 50% of the games, he’s going to see lots of RH pitching. ……..Same with Santana when Kirilloff had to play OF - he got many more LH AB’s than were intended going into the season.

It’s not some conspiracy nor complete lack of logic…….it’s how the performances of guys around him and mostly HEALTH has driven line-up decisions.

It is a lack of logic because it's the guaranteed outcome. Or are you going to argue that the logical thing was that everyone on the team was going to perform and stay healthy all season so Margot was only ever going to face lefties? What's nuts is thinking this wasn't always the situation Margot was going to find himself in. Just like last year when Farmer saw 241 PAs against righties and only 128 against lefties even though they only wanted him to face lefties. Nobody you roster for more than short stints is ever going to face more lefties than righties. That's the flawed logic. And it isn't hard to see.

Tony Oliva didn't have the technology we have today. Tony didn't have things like Trajekt Arc that can spin the ball with the exact velo, spin, and movement of any left-handed pitcher in the majors. His only option to improve was to face a lefty bullpen arm throwing weak pitches to him or hope he faced lefties in games.

5 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Wallner could not hit RH pitching to start the year - nor in Spring Traing - nor in AAA for months ….,,,why would anyone think it’s a good idea for his psyche to send him to the plate against LH pitching to “try & work on it”?

If struggling in 10 PAs against lefties during the month of August is going to tank Wallner's psyche they should've traded him on Tuesday.

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

The difference is 293/324 plays at SS so you can ride it out. 189/235 wouldn't barely play at Catcher. Matt is no Gunnar. Happy to allow him to hit in low leverage PAs against lefties, but why would you want him starting against any left handed pitcher as a player that offers no value on defense either. 

Well Gunnar played half his games at 3B last year. 76 starts at 3B, 77 at SS, 11 at DH. How does .293/.324 play at 3B and DH?

If you never give him, or any other lefty, the chance you doom yourself to a perpetual cycle of rostering Margot and Farmer types. And eventually those guys are always going to have to take a starting spot and will always face more righties than lefties. Never giving yourself a chance to have a lefty who can hit lefties is a bad strategy. Are they going to let Jenkins and Emma hit lefties when they come up? Or do people want to argue those 2 should automatically be added to the "lefties can't hit lefties" train, too?

4 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

As a great glove at 3B? Yeah, that still plays. Gunnar has the potential to be an all-time great so it makes sense to allow him to work things out. Wallner has the potential to be...Miguel Sano, so teams will obviously be less willing to let him fight through slumps. 

Come on. At least be honest about that not at all playing at 3B. A .324 slugging doesn't touch anywhere close to a usable 3B, no matter how good your glove is.

19 minutes ago, nova_twins said:

Wallner will never be an asset against LHP. 

In-season ZiPS projects his 'true talent' as 123 RC+, standard corner platoon bat. 

I don't know if this is sarcasm, but if it's not, dang, we're calling a 123 wRC+ a standard corner platoon bat? There are currently 42 qualified hitters in all of baseball with a 123 wRC+. There's only 56 in all of baseball at 115 or better. 

Drop it down to 200 PAs or more and you're at a whopping 62 guys at 123 wRC+. Somebody needs to let those silly Orioles know they need to start platooning Colton Cowser since he's a lefty bat with a 123 wRC+. Standard corner platoon bat. Oh, and let the Mets know Nimmo is in the same boat. Luckily for the Guardians Josh Naylor is at a 124 wRC+ so he's good enough not to be a platoon bat, but a week long slump and he's just a standard corner platoon bat, too.

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

It quite literally does though? If you're a 291/301 hitter at 3B with an average-ish glove, you'd look like Gio Urshela and you'd be about replacement level. So, if we're just talking about the weaker side of a split with a good glove? Yeah, that plays. 

Gio's slugging for his career against lefties is .422. Against righties it's .408. .324 is a long ways from either of those numbers. 

2 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I agree with 99% of the things you are saying about Wallner and more specially his usage. But can we stop making IMO silly comparisons, Wallner is a guy that didn't see the majors until age 24 and will be 27 when next season starts and Henderson was up at age 21 and at age 22 was ROY and top 10 MVP also by age 21  was seen as a potential hall of fame type of player and at a much older age Wallner was seen a possible major league regular.

There has been time and will be time going forward to get Wallner at bats against lefties, IMO the time isn't the start of a season (unless of course we are talking Jenkins or ERod next year, which I know is really wishful thinking)

I didn't say Wallner was Gunnar, I used Gunnar as evidence that a slow start against lefties doesn't mean you're doomed to always be bad against lefties, but you can't show you can hit them if you're never given the chance.

And Aaron Judge didn't debut until he was 24, and put up a .608 OPS in 27 games that year. I know you love your ages, but they aren't the end all be all. That Judge guy (who's name shows up in this article next to Wallner's a bunch) has turned out alright. And I'm not now saying Wallner is Judge, but debut age isn't always the determining factor on how good somebody can be. Josh Donaldson didn't debut until 24. Didn't play a single major league game his age 25 season. Only played 75 games his age 26 season. Then finished 4th in MVP his age 27 season. And won the MVP his age 29 season. Ended up with 3 top 4 MVP finishes. It happens.

6 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

I just looked at his output at 3B this season, total. As a 3B he's hit like 240/290/300 and has 0.0 fWAR at that position. I'm not suggesting Gio's splits or previous performances. But the point is, yeah, that sort of a line isn't good but is essentially replacement level. So as a weaker side of a split, its easy to roster. Maybe Wallner could eventually figure out lefties, but there's nothing to suggest he will anytime soon and allowing him important PAs against any is a terrible idea. 

He actually has -0.1 fWAR and he has -0.5 bWAR. Nobody is actively looking for a 0 or negative WAR player. 0 WAR means you can take any random AAAA player and get that production.

And, as has been pointed out, he's had multiple years in the minors where he did very well against lefties. That is something to suggest he will figure it out. And allowing Margot important PAs against righties is a terrible idea, but that's going to happen anyways. And he won't be here next year. If Wallner getting 30 PAs against lefties the rest of the year causes the Twins to miss the playoffs they weren't going to win the World Series anyways.

17 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

A  super young hall of fame talent is going to be given more opportunities than others was my point. As for Wallner, like a said I agreed with you, to me this is more on the Twins then Wallner at this point, Nobody knows what kind of hitter Wallner will be against lefties, because he hasn't been given the chance here, will he ever?  IMO what happened at the end of last year, spring and early in the season left a bad taste for the fans, and it certainly looks like the same for the front office. I think the Twins are trying to build him back up slowly and putting him in spots to succeed, we will see what happens when they expand that, I certainly hopes he succeeds.

My concern is the Twins are going to treat Jenkins the same way as all their other lefties when he gets here. Do you think they'll let him play everyday against lefties if he's up at the age of 21 like the Orioles did with Gunnar, and have done with their other guys who are closer to Wallner's debut age? I don't.

21 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

You don't have to preach to me about Margot. I've wanted to DFA since March 29th. 

But you seem to be just misunderstanding my point. Yes, a 0 WAR player is not something anyone's looking for, but Gunnar clearly isn't that. I'm going off the previously established fact that he "struggled" against lefties, but A) his struggles were far less severe than Matt's to the point he was STILL replacement level at that production and B) Gunnar is a very skilled all-around ballplayer with all the evidence in the world that he would improve. 

No team trying to be competitive would allow Matt to hit against lefties if at all avoidable. 

What was that evidence? What was the evidence he'd improve against lefties? His OPS against lefties in 2021 (year before he debuted) was .642. He played 8 games in AA that season, so that stat line is from A and A+ ball. In 2019 he had a .641 OPS against them in rookie ball. In 2022, when he debut, he had a .670 OPS against them in the minors. I already provided his early MLB career numbers. 

Wallner in rookie ball had a .789 OPS against lefties. In A+ he had a .678 OPS. In AA and AAA the year he debuted he had a .911 OPS against them. The Twins gave him 18 PAs against them in the majors that year. In bouncing back and forth last year he had an .848 OPS against lefties in AAA. The Twins gave him 46 PAs against them in the majors last year. 

What about Gunnar's numbers vs Wallner's numbers say Gunnar had "all the evidence in the world that he would improve" but Wallner is so clearly doomed?