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    Margot Misfortune Could Provides Keirsey Opportunity


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins employ arguably the best defensive center fielder in baseball. Byron Buxton has been able to lay claim to that title for a while now, but he hasn’t remained on the field to show it off. In needing backup options for his services, Manuel Margot was tabbed as an answer this offseason, but his shaky start could pave the way for prospect DaShawn Keirsey Jr.’s debut.

     

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    Byron Buxton has come out of the gate showing a level of availability that we haven’t seen in quite some time. Acting as a defensive replacement while his bat slumps, and continuing to play through the slow start while providing some key big hits, it wasn’t until some knee inflammation sent him for a (hopefully) short stint on the injured list that he truly missed time.

    It would be expected that Manuel Margot, acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for Noah Miller, would fill some of that playing time. He has been billed as a solid defensive outfielder, with center field acumen, and an ability to hit left-handed pitching. Unfortunately, he has shown almost none of that this season on Rocco Baldelli’s roster, and his -0.5 fWAR is the worst among all Twins players.

    Willi Castro has taken over as the regular backup in center field, and rookie Austin Martin has seen some real run there as well. Both represent much higher-caliber options than what Margot has shown thus far, and his clock could be ticking. Despite being paid $6 million this season, it’s the Dodgers by way of Tampa Bay on the hook for almost all of it. Should a shakeup come, it might be to the benefit or prospect DaShawn Keirsey Jr.

    Selected in the 4th round by Minnesota during the 2018 Major League Baseball Draft, Keirsey has been more slow and steady. He has played in roughly 400 minor league games and has moved up levels methodically. He doesn’t appear on prospect lists, and he hasn’t been invited to the Arizona Fall League or Future’s Game. If you haven’t been keeping up with his progress though, you’ve been missing out.

    Playing 130 games split between Double-A Wichita and Triple-A St. Paul last year, he posted his first OPS over .800 at the professional level. The .739 mark for the Saints wasn’t going to light the world on fire, and he wasn’t especially young for the level at 26 years old. It was clear that he continued to make changes though, and we’re seeing that come to fruition even more this season.

    Now soon to be 27 years old, Keirsey is batting over .300 with a strong on-base percentage and a slugging prowess we haven’t seen before. He has six homers, eight doubles, and four triples in just 31 games. It’s still a small sample size, but there isn’t a way he could have gotten off to a better start. Playing a great defensive center field, he’s not in the same bucket as either Matt Wallner or Trevor Larnach, but his left-handedness could be something that holds him back, given the Twins' roster construction.

    Facing an uphill battle not being on the 40-man roster, there isn’t a ton of incentive for Minnesota to prioritize a late-bloomer like this for a promotion. However, if he continues down this path and Margot keeps looking as lost as he has, injuries could mean there may be no choice but to bring Keirsey across town for a major league debut.

    Similar to Mark Contreras before him, these types of well-earned success stories are great to see. Seth Stohs called Keirsey the Twins' most underrated prospect last June, and since that announcement, he has done nothing to slow the hype train. It’s unfortunate that so many Minnesota outfielders are left-handed, but at some point, having the best players play might be the plan of attack.

    I wouldn’t bet on Keirsey coming to the majors before June or July, but if trends continue, he could be an unexpected key addition to the roster, and it would be something the organization should celebrate.

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    9 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

    Miller is finally getting the hitting coaching that's beneficial to his development. WOW 5 HRs already, hit a walk off in 1 of his 1st games, basically he's just starting. As his hitting improves he'll continue to rise on the LAD coveted prospect list

    Miller is a year older than Doncon so the comparison isn't exactly the same. I would hope Miller would improve his hitting when he repeats the same level as last year. Your guess is as good as mine as to which one develops into a big leaguer. The odds are against both of them. The trade was one player who is unlikely to contribute in the big leagues for Manuel Margot and a different player who is unlikely to contribute in the big leagues.

    9 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    Miller is a year older than Doncon so the comparison isn't exactly the same. I would hope Miller would improve his hitting when he repeats the same level as last year. Your guess is as good as mine as to which one develops into a big leaguer. The odds are against both of them. The trade was one player who is unlikely to contribute in the big leagues for Manuel Margot and a different player who is unlikely to contribute in the big leagues.

    Miller is 21 (still young) less than a year older & also a level higher. Miller's glove is near MLB ready right now so he'll find some where to play MLB SS (unfortunately not MN). Where & how well he'll be recognized will depend on how well LAD can develop his hitting. Miller has a lot of OBP potential but being developed according to his natural swing he's shown surprising power.

    The Twins should dump Margot & admit their mistake. That's the only way to get past it. When a player hits their prime it's time to use them or lose them. Teams don't improve their chances of winning a world series by relying on an outdated process. That's what bureaucrats do. It's time to improve the process & add Keirsey to the 40 man roster & give the man the promotion that he deserves. The Twins need him now, not in a month or in July. Let him work out the jitters sooner rather than later. The Twins won't be any worse off in the end no matter what he does. It's all about the bureaucrats & their red tape. Look at how long they stuck with Sano.

    On 5/12/2024 at 10:35 PM, LambchoP said:

    I would love to see him with the twins. Rocco places way too much importance on platooning, I just don't get it. Play your best hitters man. These young lefties need to learn how to hit lefty handed pitchers but they never will if you're constantly pulling them for RH hitters(that are doing nothing at the plate) like Margot and Farmer...

    I agree with this whole-heartedly. Arraez is a case-in-point. The Marlins just said, 'You're hitting against everyone, and lo and behold, he started hitting lefties.'

    On 5/12/2024 at 9:08 AM, mikelink45 said:

    He should be up already. Not only has Margot not been the fielder he was supposed to be. He isn't batting either. Since the other teams are paying most of his salary, why are we waiting. I will take take Castro and Martin over him and I'm waiting for a true center. Fielder like Keirsey to come up. 

    Very much agree, I’m a big fan of DaShawn Keirsey Jr. and with Tom Froemming’s minor league highlights have seen him play defense and hit a lot. I think he has an unusually sweet swing.

    On 5/12/2024 at 5:37 PM, bean5302 said:

    I thought it was a common opinion Margot was in significant decline, and that it was dubious he'd provide value?

    It doesn't take some sort of human savant to know Margot had lost a lot of speed or that he was showing a major decline in his defensive value. A quick visit to Fangraphs and BaseballSavant.com reveals those patterns, along with his evaporation of plate discipline, too. He didn't hit lefties for beans last year, either.

    I think the dead horse has been revisited for a thorough beating at least 2x a week for the past couple of months in regard to the trade, but pretending the acquisition of Margot was a popular move or that it was hard to predict Margot was likely cooked is a new argument I was unaware of.

    Margot was coming of a leg injury last year and it was reasonable to assume his athleticism would return to close to previous levels. It isn't usual for such a rapid decline at 29.

    This has been an interesting discussion to read.

    Here's the problem that seems to be glossed over. 

    In order for Keirsay Jr to get placed on the 26 man roster. He will require a Margot on that same roster. 

    Margot's misfortune does not provide opportunity for Keirsay.

    Keirsay hitting left handed provides opportunity for Margot. 

    20 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

    Doncon

    AB R H HR  RBI  SB  AVG  OBP  OPS
    2024 MiLB Stats 120 17 35 4 17 3 .292 .367 .842

    Miller 

    AB R H HR  RBI  SB  AVG  OBP  OPS
    2024 MiLB Stats 131 25 35 5 20 0 .267 .362 .797

    Miller is finally getting the hitting coaching that's beneficial to his development. WOW 5 HRs already, hit a walk off in 1 of his 1st games, basically he's just starting. As his hitting improves he'll continue to rise on the LAD coveted prospect list

    It's very difficult to find Miller's caliber of glove (Miller was my candidate for SS after Correa moves off), IMO Doncon shouldn't stick at SS for the Twins. The rest of the INF is jam-packed with players much better him. At catcher, SS, & CF glove trumps bat.

    I have much more faith in LAD's players evaluation & development than ours who's by far greatest priority is HRs & forget defense.

    You've obviously settled on a narrative here, but I don't think you have a lot of evidence to back up the statement that the Twins only care about HRs and don't care about defense. If they didn't care about defense, why would they have brought Vazquez in as a catcher or Santana in to play 1B?

    I hope for his sake that Miller has figured something out at the plate, but keep in mind he hit 4 of his HRs in a 3 game stretch and hasn't hit one since. So is it that he's figured something out, or he had a good weekend? Is his improvement at the plate because of the Dodgers superior coaching and development or because he's repeating the level?

    The reality is that offense is more impactful in winning games, and this is one of the reasons Kiersey hasn't gotten a chance yet: there are still real questions about his hitting. He broke out in AA after repeating the level at 26. When he moved up to AAA last season he hardly lit the league on fire, and that was 100% a hitters environment. he's having a great season so far, and I'm happy to have him in the system, but it's fair to wonder if he's capable of being a league average hitter, and as a LH hitter can he fill a need to whack LHP? Because he didn't in 2023.

     

    2 hours ago, jmlease1 said:

    You've obviously settled on a narrative here, but I don't think you have a lot of evidence to back up the statement that the Twins only care about HRs and don't care about defense. If they didn't care about defense, why would they have brought Vazquez in as a catcher or Santana in to play 1B?

     My evidence is looking at the priority of their drafting, big bat with below-average glove unless it's a no-brainer like Royce Lewis. Their hitting development is squeezing every HR out of every prospect no matter what type of hitter they are. Only hitters like Lewis, Lee & Martin who are secure in their hitting have been able to break away from that mold. They traded away their top defensive catching & SS (premium position) prospects for nothing. Before they signed Vazquez our catching defense was in a shambles. Jeffers defense was below-average & floundering at catcher. None of our catching prospects are even rated & lean more towards offense, Any prospects of any good defensively were years away.  Catching like CF sub & SS were so bad that they had to go outside the organization to try to stop the bleeding, so they had to get Vazquez. 

    I have no idea why they acquired Santana. I am a defense-minded person but I know that 1B is an offensive 1st position & least important defensively. Where no defense priority is needed they're putting priority. That tells me that they don't know where they need to put their defensive priority. That's all the evidence I need.

    You can say family is important & believe it but if your actions show that it's a low priority it doesn't matter what you say you believe or think.




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