Internal Options to Replace Sonny Gray

How many wins are expected with replacement value starter?  Gray suffered through lack of run support and blown saves, so the Twins record when he started was 14-18 (43.75% win percentage).   Kuechel & Varland combined to go 8-8 in their starts.   Of our primary starters, other than Gray, the  Twins winning percent in their starts ranged from 50.00% for Maeda to 61.54% for Ober.   For reference the Yankees won almost 70% of Gerrit Cole's starts. 

I hope that Gray will accept a QO, but I think that is a long shot.   The Twins were 7-43 when scoring 2 runs or less, which only occurred 14 times after the AS break, which corresponded with the reduction in ABs for Buxton and Gallo (accounted for 15.0% of ABs prior to AS break and 5.3% after AS break.  During the regular season, I believe the Twins will easily by able to make up for Gray's absence with just fewer empty ABs and a better bullpen.  The post season will be a different story in that Gray threw one gem and couldn't make up for Kirilloff's error in the second game.

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I would hope to get a no on the QO. We get the draft pick and the Maeda signs a 2 yr deal with a team option on year 3.  He gets you 1.5WAR both years as a 24 start guy at the back end of the rotation. Paddock will be lights out next year in his 28 starts. I honestly think there will only be 3 teams going after Gray and he may not be happy about the offers he gets. Its will be interesting if Kuekel signs a minor league deal with us. He seems to really like it around here. A few spot starts from the guys across the river won’t hurt much if we can kill the other elephant in the room. All the strike out!!

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’d offer Gray a 2 year deal for $26M/year…….a Team option for year 3 at $26M or a $4M buyout. This gives him a fair market offer for a 34 year old. Also, if he pitches well he gets a 3rd year or a goodbye present if $4M.

That is not a fair market offer. Gray should be able to get $100M if he only cares about money. Someone will guarantee 3 years $75M.

13 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Probably right - can’t hurt to see if the offer might fly. I don’t think his upside from here on out matches what we might get for $75M over 3 years. This year was most innings pitched for 8 years……he’s soon to be 34.

Qualifying offer and then gaining a first round pick probably makes most sense.

I think the expectation of a 3 year contract would be between 400-550 innings.  Anything more is bonus.  But if he is around the 400 mark, that wouldn’t be surprising either as that would likely mean he spends some time on the DL but not too much that he doesn’t contribute either.  He seems a pitcher more susceptible to minor injuries than to TJ surgery.  Though time will tell.  

19 hours ago, RpR said:

And he was pulled for defense regularly so that is NOT a regular 2nd baseman; Polanco was on IL, for a lot of that time.

He is a gaping hole in defense.

Did you watch the games?  If not, take a look at Statcast.  You just can't accept that he has gotten better.  He is not a gaping hole.  That's pure hyperbole.  I bet you would be OK with Arraez at 2B and Julien is a better defender.  

22 hours ago, Karbo said:

I don't understand why so many want to get rid of Polo. He is a good hitter and one of the best clutch hitters on this team. He has a very reasonable contract by todays standards and plays a decent 2nd base. He is known as a team player. Just the kind of player a team wants!

Here is an outside opinion.    Most likely players from each team to be traded

I would invest the money in Jordan Montgomery or similar free agent.  A SP of this caliber would be a significant impact whereas Julien and Lewis are actually improvements.   This roster comes in at $132M

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I see what you're saying, but I just don't agree. I don't think they can get anyone that would be as impactful as Polo from another team. Do you have any teams in mind and what do you see as an equal or better trade?

I do not make specific trade proposals or contract proposals. I think it's ridiculous for people on this site to do that. But as I've said many times, the front office should be open to trading anyone who doesn't have a no-trade clause in his contract if they feel the trade improves the team.

2 hours ago, Karbo said:

By todays standards, 10 mil is cheap.

If the Twins budget drops from 150 million to 125 million due to TV contract situation dropping Polanco and Farmer makes up 17 million of that while trying to find space in the budget for Gray’s salary and it gets difficult.  If our team budget went up to 160 million instead this would be a non issue. We keep Polanco at that point.  And I’m not saying we necessarily trade him now. It’s just one avenue to restructure team budget if prioritizing pitching.  

On 10/16/2023 at 10:44 AM, nicksaviking said:

Last year I was more than happy filling out the rotation with the internal options, but then they traded for Lopez and it was the best move they did all year. 

They've traded for Odorizzi, Maeda, Gray, Paddock, Mahle and Lopez to be mid-to-top of the rotation arms. I don't care if it's via trade again or free agency, but it would be weird if they didn't go it again after it clearly paid off last year.

I would say this is most likely. And also the smartest thing they could do. AGAIN or system is filling out nicely with position players that look like they are ready or close to ready with pitching that looks at best end of rotation or bullpen type options. I'd love another trade to bring in another #2-3 type starter. 

If not, I think you might see them sign Mahle back on a prove-it deal and try to fill in with whoever is left of SWR, Varland, Festa, ML signing type guy, etc.

I'd love Gray back on a 2-3 year deal, but I don't think paying him a ton and guaranteeing 4-5 years would be a good play at all for the Twins. 

4 hours ago, Brandon said:

If the Twins budget drops from 150 million to 125 million due to TV contract situation dropping Polanco and Farmer makes up 17 million of that while trying to find space in the budget for Gray’s salary and it gets difficult.  If our team budget went up to 160 million instead this would be a non issue. We keep Polanco at that point.  And I’m not saying we necessarily trade him now. It’s just one avenue to restructure team budget if prioritizing pitching.  

I will put money on it this will be another year that the owners decide to either keep the payroll where is, or increase it. They finally have something here, fan interest is at an all-time high and it's easy to see we have a load of young guys ready to run. 

This isn't the Carl Pohlad of the past or the Terry Ryan purse string holder Twins. These guys have usually done what they think it takes to win within reason.

28 minutes ago, ashbury said:

You do say this a lot, and it's plainly true*, but I'm not sure what wisdom it really imparts.  If Falvey tells Levine, "go make a trade, improve the team," will Levine do more than just stare at him and say, "well, yeah, duh"?

 

* An exception is that the team also needs to sell tickets.  Trading Arraez was a gamble that I tip my hat to the FO for making.  But trading away Puckett in his prime, if another team offered them the world, might not be a step our guys could reasonably take.  There might other reasons to not be open to an otherwise favorable trade.

My guess is that conversations between those two on the subject of trades are just slightly more in depth than that.

In an ideal world...

1. Pablo

2. Trade acquisition

3. Ryan

4. Paddack

5. Ober

Varland, SWR, maybe Balezovic waiting their turn in St. Paul