How Will Carlos Santana Fit In With the Minnesota Twins?

42 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't dislike the player, it could have been worse, but did it work last year? Doesn't last year's team have more wins had Jeffers, Wallner and Julien had 75-200 more PA each?

That is wishful thinking, and nothing more.

2 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

I don't dislike the player either, I'll cheer for him. But what I'm left with is hoping that we get the 2023 version of Santana.  That version was basically a league average player. The chances are much greater however that he regresses back to 20-22 levels, or worse. We had a PO team in 2023, it seems to me the goal should be making that team better. Not going for average.

Hopefully I'm wrong about the sign. I've been wrong many other times before.

well, he was close to a league average hitter, but overall he was a quality starter with 2.7 bWAR. And if he moves to mostly just playing against LHP, he might actually be more productive as a hitter.

5 minutes ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

You don’t think that ‘23 would have been a better team had the better hitters received more plate appearances?

There are no guarantees, that past equal future.

4 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

Gallo for Santana swap seems like a neutral swap. At 5m vs 11, more likely to see a bench role. I hated the Gallo signing, but I hate this one less. The lineup feels smushed together with several JAGs. It worked last year, so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ what do I know?

 

 

Santana's contribution could be greater than Gallo if he is used primarily against LHP.  Gallo was forced into service because of injuries.  Santana might be too.  I think the biggest risk is that he performs more like 2020-2022 than 2023.  I am really indifferent on this move.  I see the logic but tend to agree with Nick and others who suggest we would be better off not clogging up the 26-man and giving the ABs to young guys that could provide long-term benefit.

4 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Santana's contribution could be greater than Gallo if he is used primarily against LHP.  Gallo was forced into service because of injuries.  Santana might be too.  I think the biggest risk is that he performs more like 2020-2022 than 2023.  I am really indifferent on this move.  I see the logic but tend to agree with Nick and others who suggest we would be better off not clogging up the 26-man and giving the ABs to young guys that could provide long-term benefit.

Or , and odds of rookie success, say  another year of Celestino, Rooker and other such failures is more likely.

Twins came off of a winning season, that is NOT when you roll the dice and hope they are good enough.

Lewis, Castro and Wallner look like they MAY cast off rookie status ; none of the other Minor League players the Twins have brought up are  near a sure thing, so bringing up unknown newbies and hope for the best is not how a team stays in post season play, especially one that lost the pitching edge it had.

Elly De La Cruz came up looking like the next Ted Williams; by seasons end he looked more like Andreton Simmons; the Twins cannot afford such experiments until they fall back to also ran category.

7 hours ago, RpR said:

Or , and odds of rookie success, say  another year of Celestino, Rooker and other such failures is more likely.

Twins came off of a winning season, that is NOT when you roll the dice and hope they are good enough.

Lewis, Castro and Wallner look like they MAY cast off rookie status ; none of the other Minor League players the Twins have brought up are  near a sure thing, so bringing up unknown newbies and hope for the best is not how a team stays in post season play, especially one that lost the pitching edge it had.

Elly De La Cruz came up looking like the next Ted Williams; by seasons end he looked more like Andreton Simmons; the Twins cannot afford such experiments until they fall back to also ran category.

 

 

The odds of a 38 year old declining are also significant, especially after coming off an up year when he was not good the previous 3 years.  This is not like investing in a 30 year old veteran with a great track record.  Your stance on young players is well-established here.  The problem with your strategy is that all teams but especially teams outside the top 10 in revenue have absolutely no chance of building a contending roster without the majority of the team being in their first 6 years of service.  The next most impactful strategy is extending key players.   A failure to develop young players for teams anywhere near the Twins in terms of revenue all but guarantees failure or mediocrity at best.  

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

 The problem with your strategy is that all teams but especially teams outside the top 10 in revenue have absolutely no chance of building a contending roster without the majority of the team being in their first 6 years of service. 

If they hit years 4, 5, 6 and are not optioned back and forth (I will ignore injuries as that has nothing to do with talent) they are Major League quality.

Years 1,2,3 are a crap shoot.

The Twins are in a position to attract fans and money, as they  have last years record to build on.

This is NOT the time to be an extention of AAA, a veteran , even one who is  not what he once was, knows the game and that is the part rookies do not have and it shows in their play.

Lewis, Castro, and I will here will even say Wallner seem to be firing on all cylinders, showing they are probably going to be in the Majors for a long time, in probably one place many of the years.

Larnach, Kirilloff, Julien and even Jeffers are running like a hit-miss engine.

2 hours ago, RpR said:

If they hit years 4, 5, 6 and are not optioned back and forth (I will ignore injuries as that has nothing to do with talent) they are Major League quality.

Years 1,2,3 are a crap shoot.

The Twins are in a position to attract fans and money, as they  have last years record to build on.

This is NOT the time to be an extention of AAA, a veteran , even one who is  not what he once was, knows the game and that is the part rookies do not have and it shows in their play.

Lewis, Castro, and I will here will even say Wallner seem to be firing on all cylinders, showing they are probably going to be in the Majors for a long time, in probably one place many of the years.

Larnach, Kirilloff, Julien and even Jeffers are running like a hit-miss engine.

Are you suggesting the best way to build a roster is to acquire players after they have 3 years experience?

11 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Are you suggesting the best way to build a roster is to acquire players after they have 3 years experience?

Do not count on them until they have at least 3 years exp., unless, they are the one in ten thousand that hit their stride first or second year out.

10 hours ago, RpR said:

Do not count on them until they have at least 3 years exp., unless, they are the one in ten thousand that hit their stride first or second year out.

There is a giant hole in your strategy.  You don't have to count on them but how do you get to year 4 if you never give young guys an opportunity and you are never for giving them an opportunity.

You are also completely ignoring what’s going on around the league.  Most teams disagree with you and are not only giving more young players an opportunity, but they are also pushing them to the big leagues faster than ever before.  

Texas won the WS with a couple rookies and 3 prearb players playing important roles.  Evan Carter came up for the last 23 games in a neck and neck playoff race.  He had the highest wRC+ on the team during that time and was huge in the playoffs.   Another rookie (Josh Jung) produced 2.5 WAR in 122 games.  Jonah Heim had played in 222 games prior to the 2023 season.  He produced 4.1 WAR.  Leody Taveras had played in 182 games prior to 2023.  Ezequiel Duran had only played in 58 games prior to the 2023 season.  It’s a fairly reasonable assumption the Rangers don’t win the WS without these young players.  That’s 5 position players in case you were not counting.

Baltimore won 101 games.  Their 40 man roster had 14 prearb players.   Not only were they very good.  They are now positioned to be an elite team for several years.

Perhaps most important, and I know I am repeating myself but the only absolute prerequisite for the Minnesota Twins to build a contender is to produce major league talent.  It is a mathematical certainty that they have to produce 2X the WAR per dollar spent to compete with the top revenue teams.  Producing excess talent also allows for key trades like Pablo Lopez.  Not only does it provide the trade capital but producing young talent also allows them to sign the extension that resulted.

I just don’t think you are paying much attention to the rest of the league or some basic realities of the revenue disparity in the league.  
 

Santana is here in a Gallo role to provide a floor under the roster they want to run out there.  Last year they added Gallo and MAT because they had concerns about Buxton playing CF, their lack of power hitting, if any of the young corner guys were going to pan out, and a serious goal to never feature an outfield as bad as what disgraced Target Field in 2022. 

This year it appears they are not as concerned about CF but they do want a safety net under Kirilloff and Miranda at 1B. Santana isn't great but he's going to provide a good glove and unterrible hitting in the event that Kirilloff isn't ready and Miranda was a comet.

And just to be clear I liked the Gallo signing last year because I too was worried that the 1B and CF and LF plans looked weak and wasn't too sold on Kepler's backups either. Solano was eventually signed but there was no guarantee he was going to do any better than Santana will this year. At any rate Gallo did do what was asked on defense and was kept in the batting order far past the point where he should have been.  Good on Falvine for signing him, good on Joey for his glove and effort, frown on Rocco and Falvine for his playing time after Father's Day.  For 2024 I want a guy in hand that can hit lefties, play a decent 1B and who won't act like a child if the kids do step up and claim the playing time. Gallo only did some of that last year and Carlos can probably beat his performance. I just want Rocco to learn from his experience so this can turn out better than last time.

13 hours ago, RpR said:

one in ten thousand that hit their stride first or second year out.

You got me thinking ....... how many players have played in MLB?

The reflexive negativity on this site is remarkable. In my case, I’m intrigued by the signing and plan to enjoy baseball and see how things develop.

16 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

You get used to it, and grow to ignore most of it.

Good advice, thanks!

On 2/4/2024 at 1:28 PM, sweetmusicviola16 said:

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Here is what AI says about Twins and Santana:

• First base options: The Twins are exploring other options for first base in 2025, including Miguel Sanó, Marwin Gonzalez, and Alex Kirilloff.
• Front office plans: The Twins might want to go in a new direction at first base in 2025.
• Salary: Santana might not sign for much more than his 2024 salary.