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Throughout the offseason, Twins Daily, Twins Twitter, and other commentators wanted a variety of free agents and trade targets that seemed somewhat attainable for the Twins. Due to the payroll limitations, the front office chose to go with a cheaper alternative to all of those players. How are those alternatives doing in 2024, relative to their more expensive counterpart?
Carlos Santana vs. Rhys Hoskins
Carlos Santana Through 5/14: .213/.287/.404 96 wRC+
Rhys Hoskins Through 5/14: .233/.340/.474 131 wRC+
For a team with so much left-handed hitting talent and a reasonably flexible budget, Rhys Hoskins seemed like an obvious fit for the Twins, and Cody Schoenmann astutely wrote that up here at Twins Daily in January. Hoskins brings a track record of above-average hitting in every single year of his career and (as a lefty-masher who's been good against righties, too) would have diversified a group with a lot of left-handed hitters, but it was not to be.
Hoskins signed a two-year, $34-million deal with Milwaukee—with a player option in the second year and a mutual option in 2026. This deal may have been palatable for the Twins in a typical offseason, but not this year. A player option coming off a torn ACL and a salary approaching $20 million didn't make sense for a cost-cutting team.
They landed with Carlos Santana instead, and he's been fine, accounting for his recent surge. He's not close to Hoskins as a hitter, but the Twins might point out he's a much better defensive first baseman. The defense isn't enough to close the significant offensive gap, so the Twins would be much better off with Hoskins. It's noteworthy that Hoskins is now on the 10-day IL with a hamstring strain, but he should be back in a month or less, and we shouldn't assume that Santana will stay healthy, either.
Tommy Pham/Michael A. Taylor/Adam Duvall vs. Manuel Margot
Manuel Margot Through 5/14: .177/.241/.222, 42 wRC+, -2 DRS
Tommy Pham Through 5/14: .308/.357/.446 131 wRC+, -3 DRS
Michael A. Taylor Through 5/14: .225/.270/.284 58 wRC+, 5 DRS
Adam Duvall Through 5/14: .220/.309/.356 91 wRC+, 1 DRS
The market for right-handed outfielders moved exceptionally slowly, and the Twins were massive losers in that market. Instead of waiting it out and risking not having sufficient Byron Buxton insurance in center field, they traded for Manuel Margot, who has been one of the worst players in the game.
Pham, Taylor, and Duvall are all making the same or less than the Twins are paying Margot, even with Tampa and the Dodgers retaining some of his salary. The Twins clearly misread the market and, with their constraints, thought they couldn't afford any of the superior alternatives, so they brought in Margot. He has not hit at all, and there are no signs of him turning a corner—not to mention, the Twins haven't trusted him in center field with any regularity.
The Margot mistake has something to do with the budget constraints and a mistake by the front office, but any of Margot's alternatives would be better than him offensively, defensively, or both. So, it is another position where the Twins' harsh budget constraints prevented a productive acquisition and led to far inferior production.
Michael Lorenzon/Sonny Gray/Corbin Burnes vs. Simeon Woods Richardson/Louie Varland
Michael Lorenzon Through 5/14: 36 IP, 3.75 ERA, 5.11 FIP
Sonny Gray Through 5/14: 41.1 IP, 3.05 ERA, 2.79 FIP
Corbin Burnes Through 5/14: 53.2 IP, 2.68 ERA, 3.54 FIP
Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland Combined Through 5/14: 41.2 IP, 5.61 ERA, 5.87 FIP
After having the best starting rotation in the American League in 2023, the Twins would unlikely repeat their performance in 2024. Twins fans and pundits hoped they would at least make an effort to put together another great rotation in the offseason, but they did just about nothing--due, again, to budget constraints.
The only rotation addition was Anthony DeSclafani, who had a poor 2023 and will miss the entire season after having arm surgery this spring. After they learned of his injury, they still decided to roll with internal options—like Simeon Woods Richardson and Louie Varland—to round out the rotation in the fifth spot, with Chris Paddack (returning from his own serious injury) fourth. Varland was terrible before his demotion, but Woods Richardson has been good thus far.
Had the Twins had a typical budget increase, bringing back Sonny Gray would've been on the table--although this regime has shown little interest in paying free-agent starters on multi-year deals.
Alternatively, they could've hit the trade market for a somewhat expensive pitcher nearing free agency like Corbin Burnes. The Twins had reported interest in the former Cy Young winner, but such a trade was undoable with their budget constraints—even setting aside a considerable prospect price. Gray and Burnes have been much better than the internal choices, and both could start a playoff game. They also would, of course, boost the depth of a rotation needing it.
Even if they didn't want to go big game hunting, they could've added veteran depth to ensure that Varland wouldn't be relied upon immediately. Michael Lorenzon made perfect sense for such a move, at around $4.5 million. Under normal circumstances, this front office would be all over that contract on a one-year deal, but not with payroll cuts. He's nothing spectacular, but he's better than Varland and would have added much-needed depth to this rotation.
The Verdict
Free agency can be risky business, so there was no guarantee that the Twins' payroll cuts would hurt them, but they have. They've missed out on production at multiple spots in the lineup and unnecessarily capped the rotation's depth and upside. The team is still very competitive, so hopefully, the constraints don't hamper their efforts at the trade deadline.
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