Getting an “Ace” Easier Said Than Done

 

well Klueber just got traded, so there's one...

And this team has the **** resources to have  acquired Kluber and failed to do so. I know the off season isn't over, but from the mid season trade deadline to December 15, I give them an F. This is on them, they are the ones that said when the window is open that they would strike. They have failed. Don't say it if you don't have the balls to follow through.

 

This whole website is full of specific, actionable trade and free agent ideas that the front office should consider, from writers and posters alike.

Frankly, in my opinion, I personally think it’s dishonest for certain posters or media members to keep asking questions like this. Not singling anyone out here. “Go out and sign Wheeler at whatever price” is a valid suggestion for improving the team, like it or not. It implies not that the Twins should have offered him Gerrit Cole money, but only that they outbid other teams by enough to persuade him to keep the negotiation open until he signs. And to bring you back into this, MLR.. by your own payroll estimate in another thread, the Twins could have won Wheeler with such an offer and still be comfortably under the payroll ceiling you predicted. So there’s a specific free agency idea.

As for trade ideas, I see them on this site every day. You don’t have to like them, but they are there.

 

 

Hosken, I'm sure you see the dilemna. The "do whatever it takes" argument rejects or at least dismisses the validity and right of ownership to consider prudence, to exercise their right to setting a clearing price. And that's okay. It just means that having a conversation about it is a non-starter. This is especially true because we almost never know what the clearing price is, for the player or the bidder. What was Falvey willing to bid? Whatever it takes? What does that even mean? What number, if any number, would have changed Wheeler's mind? Is it possible he and his wife shrugged, kissed each other good night, and had a nice dream knowing that $118,000,000.00 was enough? We can't just presume that some number would have worked, or that the timing of an offer would influence the player's decision. It's an auction process, and the auctioneer rarely starts telling bidders to put down their cards just because an early bid was sweet. Just the opposite probably happens, where Boras is repeating "5/100 going once" over and over until he gets the 5/118. Who knows, right?

 

There are plenty of trade ideas offered every day. Those are an easier conversation. I mean, When someone suggests we trade Royce Lewis for Gore, everything is pretty much "knowable". Like that it ain't gonna happen.

 

Hosken, I'm sure you see the dilemna. The "do whatever it takes" argument rejects or at least dismisses the validity and right of ownership to consider prudence, to exercise their right to setting a clearing price. And that's okay. It just means that having a conversation about it is a non-starter. This is especially true because we almost never know what the clearing price is, for the player or the bidder. What was Falvey willing to bid? Whatever it takes? What does that even mean? What number, if any number, would have changed Wheeler's mind? Is it possible he and his wife shrugged, kissed each other good night, and had a nice dream knowing that $118,000,000.00 was enough? We can't just presume that some number would have worked, or that the timing of an offer would influence the player's decision. It's an auction process, and the auctioneer rarely starts telling bidders to put down their cards just because an early bid was sweet. Just the opposite probably happens, where Boras is repeating "5/100 going once" over and over until he gets the 5/118. Who knows, right?

 

There are plenty of trade ideas offered every day. Those are an easier conversation. I mean, When someone suggests we trade Royce Lewis for Gore, everything is pretty much "knowable". Like that it ain't gonna happen.

 

It's also quite possible Wheeler told Boras he was taking the Philly offer regardless of other offers. Boras, not wanting it to get out that the Twins made a higher offer, told the Twins to please not bother. This is quite plausible but we will never know so why is anyone sure what happened?

 

well Klueber just got traded, so there's one...

 

Perhaps I needed to clarify. I was not asking for names of people that had been elite in the past but SPs that were likely to be elite going forward. Based on the return was a 4th OFer and Texas #30 prospects, the Indians and more importantly the rest of the league obviously did not believe he would  be an ace going forward. Now, would I have traded Kluber for Cave and a top 25-30 prospects? Sure but Kluber must have medical concerns that are very likely to make him a difference maker or the return would have been much higher.

Hosken, I'm sure you see the dilemna. The "do whatever it takes" argument rejects or at least dismisses the validity and right of ownership to consider prudence, to exercise their right to setting a clearing price.

Not only that, it ignores flexibility next year and several years beyond. People also seem to want ignore to basic economics and the concept of a budget. Then again, I’m reading posts from people who feel Pohlad should just spend his own money. It’s really a bunch of pie in the sky chatter about nothing to the point where we are speaking hypothetically now.

 

It does make me wonder. What if Jeff Bezos brought the Twins and made it his life’s mission to bring the Twins a championship? Would anyone be happy if he set aside five billion dollars of his fortune for the Twins and bought the biggest names in free agency the next five years? Would that get these people excited?

 

Being a long time Twins fan you develop an understanding that we can’t operate like the Yankees or the Dodgers. Like you say, it is naive to think of we had even a little shot at Cole. To waste a moment on that is a fool’s errand.

 

People know this and yet seems to be an increasingly louder group of folks who insist we spend without any concern of future implications. Have they learned nothing? For whatever reason they see this team as a win now team and that signing Bumgarner or Ryu (or both) is the recipe for success. All Pohlad needs to do is write checks. Meanwhile, when it comes time to sign Sano, Buxton, Berrios and the like we won’t be able to and there’s a good chance there will be complaints about that.

 

It’s just becoming a silly conversation. This isn’t the market and it isn’t the year. These guys that are left isn’t going to get it done. We’d be better off pulling the trigger on a trade if anything.

 

Perhaps I needed to clarify. I was not asking for names of people that had been elite in the past but SPs that were likely to be elite going forward. Based on the return was a 4th OFer and Texas #30 prospects, the Indians and more importantly the rest of the league obviously did not believe he would  be an ace going forward. Now, would I have traded Kluber for Cave and a top 25-30 prospects? Sure but Kluber must have medical concerns that are very likely to make him a difference maker or the return would have been much higher.

you need to define your definition of elite and give examples then.  you keep moving the goalposts, IMO. 

you need to define your definition of elite and give examples then. you keep moving the goalposts, IMO.

Who cares? There are no elite pitchers on the market now.

 

you need to define your definition of elite and give examples then.  you keep moving the goalposts, IMO. 

 

I don't think the problem is my definition when the player in question was traded for a 4th OFer and a #30 prospect. Frankly, when you complain in this way it just looks like you want to complain. Go ahead a make a suggestion and we can debate the relative viability of the team giving up the players as well as the relative impact on the team.

 

Unless you have the top pick in the draft...on rare occasions maybe the 2nd or 3rd...and there is a Clemons or Strasburg there, you don't draft an ACE. You find arms you like and project and develop them. We are starting to see real changes in the development structure of the Twins system that could pay off over the next couple of years.

Debate all you will, but Berrios has that kind of potential still at 26yo. Gtaterol, with any kind of decent 3rd pitch and a little time and nurturing could be that type. Balazovic has a lot of steam. Duran maybe?

But the Twins are in a unique and somewhat awkward position right now. They have the $ to make a move that helps this team for at least a couple of years. But the market has shifted again and the terms have escalated beyond what I think anyone anywhere expected.

Do they take a shot here and overpay and figure out payroll 3 and 4 years from now when they get there? Do they try to front load a deal for greater flexibility down the road? That's what I'd be trying to do.

Or are they better off deepening the pen, add at least a decent if not good bat to replace Cron and deepen the lineup as well as add at least one decent solid rotation piece and in lue of some expensive rotation piece?

I don't know which way is smarter. You can enhance the club and it's chances either way.

But just saying "go get an ACE no matter what" isn't an accurate wish.

This is a a GREAT and fact-based post.  If I had to make a list of the pitchers I would love to have under 24, Shane Bieber would be in my Top 5-10.  He is a perfect example of the type of development which allowed Cleveland to let a declining Kluber leave.  Look at his scouting reports from as recently as 2017, post his being a 4th rounder and having pitched in college.  He was their 11th ranked prospect at age 22.

 

Bieber:

Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 50

 

Compare this with

 

Graterol:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 70 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 55

 

Balazovic:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55

 

Duran:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

 

Enlow:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

 

Colina:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 40 | Control: 45 | Overall: 45

 

Sands:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45

 

Vallimont:

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 45 | Overall: 40

 

In terms of a comparative of the Twins pitchers that are probably closest to the majors and rated in Top 30, Bieber actually has no PLUS pitches.  His best score was only a 55 in control, yet he won 11 games, had a 1.33 WHIP, and a 4.55 ERA in 2018 (and an All Star year of 18 wins, 1.05 WHIP, and 3.28 ERA and 259 K's in 2019).   We have MULTIPLE options that seem to have a better profile than he did, and are close to knocking on the door of the MLB club (Sands seems to be the most similar profile).  This is where I think our best pitching related results are going to come from versus FA or Trades in 2020, 2021, and 2022.  If they can develop 1-3 of these pitchers that are at least at AA, re-signing Berrios and one of Odo or Pineda, we aren't having this conversation about FA's every year that may only produce for a few years (if we are lucky) of a long-term deal.  I think we are in a unique position here with this depth.  Atlanta is also in a similar boat, though maybe 1 year ahead.  High potential help is getting very close, and we simply MUST place all the organizational focus upon seeing this through.  That said, I am not even mentioning Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer, a Romero recovery, etc.  What I am getting at, is our window is probably open for 3-4 years and beyond until we have to cycle to the next group of position players and we need to develop our next high-end pitching wave RIGHT NOW versus sign an overly risky FA now.  My guess is that 2 of these SPs will be able to win 8-10, pitch to a 1.25 WHIP, and an ERA of 4.50-4.75 this year - Bieber and others like him have done so.  If this what we might get from the remaining FAs, or a lower-end trade:  NO THANKS!

Seriously... The whole "name names" thing is ridiculous. Numerous posters were looking at looming rotation gaps last season in front of the trade deadline. I won't even include Bauer who was likely never going to be traded to the Twins or Greinke who had a no trade clause. BUT... we were linked to Stroman (not an ace but certainly could be an ace any given year) and our excuse was that the Jays didn't ask us.

 

DIDN'T ASK US?!?!

 

Presumably we favored Bumgardner who we may have resigned as part of that trade (Eduardo Escobar style). Presumably we missed out because we were waiting on Thor. Well we didn't get him either. Zac Gallen killed us. Then a week later he was traded to Arizona. There's no evidence we even inquired. But the fact is we didn't get him. There were few buyers at the deadline last year. And the prices have gone up astronomically since. This front office did a lot right, got a lot from the previous regime's guys and stuck with their guns even when it didn't work. But the pitching staff has a real possibility of submarining an otherwise sound team or coaxing a panic move that cripples us for years.

 

Why would Boras not want that to get out? It would make him look better. It would make his client look better. It would make his client's team (Philly, assuming he still signed there) look better.

 

Because the union and the agents want to promote a culture of players accepting the highest bid.

 

Unless you have the top pick in the draft...on rare occasions maybe the 2nd or 3rd...and there is a Clemons or Strasburg there, you don't draft an ACE. You find arms you like and project and develop them. We are starting to see real changes in the development structure of the Twins system that could pay off over the next couple of years.

Debate all you will, but Berrios has that kind of potential still at 26yo. Gtaterol, with any kind of decent 3rd pitch and a little time and nurturing could be that type. Balazovic has a lot of steam. Duran maybe?

But the Twins are in a unique and somewhat awkward position right now. They have the $ to make a move that helps this team for at least a couple of years. But the market has shifted again and the terms have escalated beyond what I think anyone anywhere expected.

Do they take a shot here and overpay and figure out payroll 3 and 4 years from now when they get there? Do they try to front load a deal for greater flexibility down the road? That's what I'd be trying to do.

Or are they better off deepening the pen, add at least a decent if not good bat to replace Cron and deepen the lineup as well as add at least one decent solid rotation piece and in lue of some expensive rotation piece?

I don't know which way is smarter. You can enhance the club and it's chances either way.

But just saying "go get an ACE no matter what" isn't an accurate wish.

I am confused didn't the Twins have 5 "ace type" pitchers in the minor leagues just a few short years ago (2017 they were 5 of the Twins top 10 prospects). Romero, Gonzo, Jay, Stewart and Mejia.

Why can't they be the solution to rotation in 2020 and beyond?

</sarcasm>

 

 

Romero definitely had some hype, and is a good cautionary tale. The others you list were never really tabbed as having "ace" potential (at least not much beyond draft day for Stewart).

Jay's ceiling was a top of the rotation guy and floor was a dominant reliever. Gonzo's ceiling was a #2 starter but more than likely 3/4, about the same for Meija.

About the same projections as this next group of saviors. (and actually besides Graterol, this next group doesn't have the Romero/Jay hype)

Jay's ceiling was a top of the rotation guy and floor was a dominant reliever. Gonzo's ceiling was a #2 starter but more than likely 3/4, about the same for Meija.

About the same projections as this next group of saviors. (and actually besides Graterol, this next group doesn't have the Romero/Jay hype)

What are your sources for these claims? None of the national writers I can recall ever said Gonsalves was anything more than a backend starter. Mejia cracked mlb.com’s top 100 list as something like the 99th prospect overall, which means something like a #4 starter, maybe a 3 if everything goes exactly right. Jay was hyped on draft day (every player is), but writers seemed to sour on him pretty quickly. I think the issue is that fans elevated these players in their own imaginations. The scouting reports were pretty down to earth.

 

What are your sources for these claims? None of the national writers I can recall ever said Gonsalves was anything more than a backend starter. Mejia cracked mlb.com’s top 100 list as something like the 99th prospect overall, which means something like a #4 starter, maybe a 3 if everything goes exactly right. Jay was hyped on draft day (every player is), but writers seemed to sour on him pretty quickly. I think the issue is that fans elevated these players in their own imaginations. The scouting reports were pretty down to earth.

umm, this site and all other prospects sites. Try a search and see how Gonzo made it up the top 100 lists, his floor was always back end rotation.

Try to the same search for Dobnack, Smelzter and Thorpe.

 

2016 MLB

Jay - 36th

Gonzo - 86th

 

2017 MLB

Romero - 71st

Gonzo - 64th

 

I can't find anywhere Dobnack, Smelzter and Thorpe even broke into the top 10 Twins prospects.

 

Obviously there's of lot of subjectivity in prospect evaluations, but I think these are a stretch, and I don't think you're presenting anything remotely close to a consensus here.

 

First Google result for "Tyler Jay draft profile": "Projection: Elite closer, No. 3 starter" https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2486077-tyler-jay-prospect-profile-for-twins-1st-round-pick

 

First result for "Stephen Gonsalves draft profile": "Projection: No. 4 or 5 starter on first-division team" https://bleacherreport.com/articles/1658066-stephen-gonsalves-prospect-profile-for-minnesota-twins-4th-round-pick

 

2nd result for Gonsalves, a 2017 Twins blog: "MLB Player Comp: Jaime Garcia" https://puckettspond.com/2017/10/20/minnesota-twins-scouting-report-lhp-stephen-gonsalves/

 

Mejia: "I see a league-average fourth starter." (Fangraphs) "Best case scenario, Mejia stays on track and becomes a slightly worse version of Teheran." (Twins blog)

 

I think it's a stretch to say any of these guys profiled/projected as "top of the rotation" types, without seriously stretching that definition.

 

Stewart's draft profile, from the same site as above: "Projection: Ceiling of a high-end No. 2 starter; potential All-Star; No. 4 starter, dynamic closer floor." Although I think even that eroded a bit by his first full pro season.

I didn't say ACE I said top of the rotation which my understanding is 2/3 and I said ceiling, 4 of the 5 were in the top 100 prospects in all of baseball at one time and 3 of 5 in the top 50. I Couldn't find Mejia anywhere but the other person said he also made a top 100 list.

 

 

 

 

I

 

umm, this site and all other prospects sites. Try a search and see how Gonzo made it up the top 100 lists, his floor was always back end rotation.

Try to the same search for Dobnack, Smelzter and Thorpe.

 

2016 MLB

Jay - 36th

Gonzo - 86th

 

2017 MLB

Romero - 71st

Gonzo - 64th

 

I can't find anywhere Dobnack, Smelzter and Thorpe even broke into the top 10 Twins prospects.

 Someone near the end of a top 100 prospect list isn't projected to be a top of the rotation arm. More like a 4 or borderline 3. The issue is that people misinterpret what these rankings mean. Not many prospects are projected as true aces. If they are, they're ranked probably in the top 5 prospects overall. Not that these rankings are set in stone.

 

 I Couldn't find Mejia anywhere but the other person said he also made a top 100 list.

 

 

 

 

I

 He was something like 98th or 99th on Mlb.com's list when the Twins traded for him.

 

To me, this is a cautionary tale for those that are confident that the Twins can stand still on pitching this year, or even next.

Who is confident in this?

Quite a few posters here. Saying that signing these free agents is a bad idea, and we should trust the FO to develop these guys.

I don’t think this is true at all. I don’t think anyone believes the Twins don’t need to add a pitcher.