Early Season Review: Will the Twins Be Contenders?

16 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Optimism is not allowed here.  Only doom and gloom.

My sincerest apologies... Ummmmm... CHEAP POHLADS!!! TWINS SUCK!!! CAN HE PITCH!?!?!? How's my form??

15 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I want to say wait until June, but then we were at the All-star break last year when the wheels fell off.  Everytime I feel like we are ready to move up we get a lousy team to play and fall apart.  At this time we are a 500 team and will remain there until we can start to get both bats and arms in sync.  

It's understandable to be cautiously optimistic! The team was in a good spot last year, as you mentioned, until basically September. There's a difference with this team though in my opinion. Last year's squad relied on Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy to take the mound two out of every five days. It was a terrible experience that hindered the bullpen and really wore on the team in general. That's not an issue this year as the team has six starters who they can feel comfortable sending out on any given day and give the team a chance to win. This is a huge difference between the 2022 and 2023 teams, and should allow them to stay competitive.

Another difference is the depth of the team. We already got to see a lot of that depth early in the season with the injuries that piled up early. The Twins are getting healthy now, and the lineup is looking much better, but those replacements that had to play kept the team afloat while the starters healed up. I trust the depth much more than years past!

15 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins have 6 games left this month. If they go just 3-3 in those games they end April with 16 wins. 16 wins/month gets them to 90 wins. They've had some ups and downs throughout the early going, but a 16-13 record wouldn't feel like they drastically overachieved based on how things have gone so far. If they win 90 games I'm pretty sure they're winning the division. 90 games is also my cutoff for a team that has a chance to make some noise in the playoffs. Not be favorites or anything, but I'm not shocked by 90 win teams winning series in the playoffs.

An ERA in the 3.50 range feels reasonable assuming solid health for the top of the rotation, and back of the pen. Buxton and Correa will heat up with the weather, even if Buxton will continue to be streaky. Kirilloff will come back (hopefully soon). Solid health from the lineup makes me think they will be good enough, but not spectacular. The playoffs, like always, will just come down to being the team that gets hot for a month. If you're there there's a chance. Not putting money on a WS ring, but it feels like they should certainly be the favorites to be central division champs at this point.

Exactly right! Also keep in mind that the early schedule for the Twins was perceived as the difficult part of their schedule. Series' against the Astros, White Sox, Red Sox, and Yankees X2 made it look like the Twins were going to be tested early. While a couple of those teams are below pre-season expectations, the Twins have navigated the schedule very well. They have positioned themselves well early, and just need to continue to win series'!

I really want to watch playoff baseball again in Minnesota! The World Series is a long shot for every team, but if you stay healthy, get hot at the right time, and make the right moves at the deadline, you always have a chance! First things first though, you have to be in the dance!

10 hours ago, Aerodeliria said:

I like their chances...even though I often complain. I am eating a plate of crow here because I really didn't believe that Baldelli would let starters come close to hitting 100 pitches...he seems to have abandoned the idea that twice through the opposing team's line-up means that the pitcher probably needs to come out if there is even a whiff of trouble. Granted, the starting pitching quality is looking pretty good. The pitching looks good-to-go for now--the bullpen could be better, but I am not complaining yet. I looked again at the games against the Yankees. No walks again today. That's how we can beat them. In the four wins, I think we have issued two walks. In the one big loss, six walks.

As for the hitting, it has kind of been all or nothing. I am still high on Larnach because he gets on base even when he is slumping a bit. I have been all in on Gallo as soon as we grabbed him. He's good on defense and he gets a ton of walks. He is also still feared by opposing pitchers, and when he does get a pitch he can handle, it usually means 'runs.' I can live with the strikeouts. Michael Taylor has performed better than expected and has surprised me with his power. Is he good at bunting? I'd like to see him on 1st base more often because he seems to be an exceptional base-runner. Correa has been disappointing thus far, but he did almost single-handedly win that second game in the Death Star. I recall that he also started very slowly last year (maybe not this slow, but slow). It's good to have Polanco's bat back in the line-up. The catchers have over-performed at the plate. Miranda has not looked good; neither has Gordon; and neither has Kepler. Buxton has been hit and miss, but he hasn't been sidelined, so maybe this strange experiment is working (but I still think it's very strange).

Overall, the defense has been better than I expected it would be, but Miranda still looks a bit shakey at 3rd (better than last year?), and amazingly, Kepler hasn't been that sharp in right field. Polanco is a sub-par infielder, but we hate to lose his bat, so we live with it. At least he's not at SS.

So, I think the outlook is upbeat. We're going to need someone who can get on base more consistently; otherwise, we live and die by the HR, but 14-10 and taking out the Yankees? I would have never predicted the latter. April has been good indeed!

 

That's my two-yen's worth.

I appreciate your two-yen's worth, and I agree with you!

Michael A. Taylor is pretty crafty with his bunting skills. We've seen him bunt several times already this year. I don't think he tries it all too often (neither does really anyone in the league) as he has seen the ball pretty well, and would rather swing than bunt. I think if he was slumping and in a game where the team needed a base runner he wouldn't hesitate to lay one down and put some pressure on the defense.

As far as Correa, you may be surprised to hear that he actually started slower last year than he has this year. On April 27th last year, Carlos Correa was hitting .167 with one home run and a .504 OPS. It was right around the start of May where he started to turn it on. He has started to heat up a bit here, but him heating up is a much slower process than someone like Buxton who heats up with one swing of the bat and then sets the world on fire. So yes, I agree that he will eventually be okay and be a star sooner than later.

As for Jose Miranda, he has looked putrid to start. However, he too started very slow last year, and was actually demoted back to AAA at one point. I think he too will figure it out. His hitting profile says that he should, we just haven't seen it yet this year.

The defense as a whole has looked great! The spots where you need good defenders are where the Twins have acquired really good defenders. Carlos Correa is back looking like the gold glover he once was, Joey Gallo looks phenomenal at 1B, Christian Vazquez (despite a couple recent blunders) has been among the leagues best in framing and overall defense, Michael A. Taylor is as good as advertised, and Max Kepler is solid as well. Jorge Polanco will always be a below average fielder. As you mentioned Jose Miranda has looked shaky as well. He's made some nice plays but his arm strength is questionable. Trevor Larnach has also been not great in the field. He had that one bonehead play against the Nationals that eventually cost the Twins the game, and then again last night it looked like he could have canned Aaron Judge at the plate in the 1st inning, but delivered a horrible throw up the line. I think both Kepler and Gallo hose Judge on that play. Overall though, there's no glaring weakness on the team defensively.

21 minutes ago, Trov said:

It is always too early to call any team a clear contender or not.  We started off hot last year, and after having many injured players we faded late.  That being said, if we can maintain decent health with our pitching we should contend.  Really our biggest hole or lack of depth is still bullpen.  If we start losing our top pen arms we could start seeing some troubles, but we have already seen both this year and last that if we start losing starters we have guys that could fill in.  We have a lot of depth in line up, already we are about to face a roster and at bat crunch when AK and Farmer are ready to return. Then we still have Julien, Walner, and Lewis will be back later this year.  We even could call on Lee if needed most likely. 

You're right about the depth! The Twins have loads of guys that could help out in a pinch as we've already seen. As far as the bullpen, if the back four guys (Duran, Lopez, Thielbar, Jax) stay healthy, the bullpen will be one of the better bullpens in baseball. Where the bullpen has struggled is out of the long-reliever role. That role should be the easiest role to fill, and the Twins just have to find the right guy. The long-reliever should only be in the game when either the team is way up, way down, or there's an injury to the starting pitcher. They should be able to find a low-leverage guy who does well in that role (maybe Brock Stewart?) As long as the back four remain good in high-leverage situations, I consider the bullpen a major asset.

10 minutes ago, John Belinski said:

Twins pitching has been very good, but hitting  has been below average with even  the expected hitters doing poorly. We can hope the high paid hitters start earning their big paychecks.  Correa is off to a really slow start and Buxton is not much better. Twins hitters seem to swing at a lot of bad pitches out of the strike zone.  On numerous at bats the Twins hitters had 5 or 6 pitches out of the strike zone, but still ended up striking out. I would assume the batting coach would point this out to the batters. When a pitcher is having a hard time throwing strikes it would seem to make sense to take a few pitches.

As I mentioned, the start players are going to come out of their slumps. Buxton and Correa are going to return to form and be the most efficient contributors to the lineup.

As far as the pitches out of the strike zone, I think all that is dependent upon approach. Yesterday I saw the Twins foul off a lot of pitches out of the zone with two strikes which to me is a very good thing. I thought the at-bats the Twins have put together the last two days have been phenomenal. They have seen a ton of pitches (forced both Brito and Cortes out of the game early) and fouled off tough pitches they couldn't drive. The strikeouts have been relatively low in recent games as well. I see where you're coming from, it would obviously be better to take pitches off the plate, but I think extending at-bats by fouling them off has been very valuable for them the last couple games.

9 minutes ago, mikelink45 said:

I am waiting to see the hitters start to produce.  That will give me a lot more confidence. 

They've looked good the last few days! Jorge Polanco has provided a solid spark! Hoping to get AK back soon as well!

10 minutes ago, HoskenPowell said:

I see Araez has been in the dugout last couple games for the Marlins.......Barely a month into the season and he's already coming up lame from having him at 2B.  HEll of a hitter average wise. But his knees are gonna keep him at DH and 1B way more than a powerless hitter like him traditionally is.  Knee must be killing him if the couldn't even put him in DH.  One of the few hitters they have they surely would play him if at all possible.

That was one of the biggest concerns and one of the reasons I advocated for a Pablo Lopez trade long before it happened. Arraez is a bottom of the barrel fielder with chronically bad knees. I loved his personality and his ability at the plate, but the Twins had a much greater need for a stud pitcher. I wish Arraez nothing but health and success, but yes those issues were well known beforehand.

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Yes, I think the Twins will contend. I'm actually surprised at how poor Cleveland has played out of the gate and Chicago has already been hit hard by injuries and poor play. The Twins are demonstrating the best rotation in the division and it's not that close and in an offense-challenged division they lead in run scoring.

Are there areas for concern? Sure. Overall health killed the season in 2022 and we are only roughly 1/6 of the way through this year, so no one can be confident that the Twins won't be derailed by injuries. Starting pitcher, infield and left handed hitter depth mitigates much of the risk of injury. Also, the prospect of reinforcements like Alex Kirilloff, Edouard Julien and Royce Lewis provides an even better buffer. The Twins aren't deep with relief pitchers. The four back-end guys with Duran as the anchor look every bit as good as the rotation, but the lower leverage middle relievers have been a concern across the board and there isn't anyone burning up Triple A pushing for a recall. 

I would say the defense has been satisfactory. We've seen a fair number of good plays, very few outstanding plays and some gaffes. I was at the game yesterday and it probably didn't change the result, but three or four plays that could have been made might have changed the type of game I saw. Specifically on defense, Miranda is probably below-average overall at third base, not a great arm, so-so hands and instincts, Correa is a very good defensive shortstop, with his length and arm making up for what is probably below-average range due to below average foot speed. Polanco can be very good at second, but his body of work is less than that, perhaps because of nagging injuries. Gallo has been okay at first, but he missed a couple of plays yesterday and a couple others have eluded him. I am pretty certain that Alex Kirilloff would and will be a superior overall first baseman. The corner outfielders have been good, although Kepler seemed a bit lost for a few days. Taylor is good, but not flashy in center. The catchers have been decent overall, Vazquez seems to have gotten good marks for his receiving skills and neither Jeffers or Vazquez has been taken advantage of by running games.

As a team, the club lacks speed at key positions. They have very few threats on the bases and are range challenged in the infield. 

Thank you for your thoughts! I agree with most of your assessment! When it comes to speed on the bases, I don't think they're necessarily slow, I think the lack of steals is just kind of the way Rocco rolls. I recall in 2019 he was asked about his lack of willingness to take extra bases and he eluded to not wanting to risk outs due to their power approach at the plate. When a team is full of guys who can hit for power, everyone is in scoring position. I think he still kind of lives by that principle belief that it isn't worth it to risk the out on a stolen base. Now, whether this school of thought morphs with the new rule changes or not, I guess we'll see. Thanks again for your thoughts!

57 minutes ago, MGX said:

It may surprise you to see that Arraez has been doing very well at 2B this year defensively. All the attention, understandably so, is on his offensive production where he is still slashing .421 .482 .553.

The bottom line is we traded a good ball player & got back and got back a good starting pitcher who we've now extended along with a couple of prospects. I still like the trade overall, but Arraez is a very good player & should continue to be a good player. You have to give up something good to get something good & I think this one of those trades where it works for both teams. 

Luis Arraez has accounted for -3 outs above average and -2 runs above average already this year. That puts him in the bottom 5th percentile of all players as a fielder. Yes, he is hitting the ball well, but the defense remains as bad as it's ever been. The Twins traded an asset to get a more important asset for their team. I do agree that as bad as it hurt to see him go, it was a very necessary deal to make for the Twins.

14 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

The 2023 don't look to be a top power-hitting club. Buxton and Gallo would be the only candidates to hit more than 30 homers, when in '19, they had many more.

Of the 13 position players, only Buxton has plus plus speed and with the caution used with him he doesn't display it often and not at all in the field.  I would say that Solano, Farmer, and Correa are below average and they are guys that man middle of the diamond positions. Add in Miranda as below average as well. Comparing the Twins to their (likely) primary opposition in the Central and they are clearly slower at third, short, second, left and center. I realize that Cleveland is probably one of the faster overall teams in MLB. 

I'm not an advocate for them stealing more bases. I do think the lack of foot speed shows up on plays not made in the field and extra bases taken. I watched another fast team (Pittsburgh) close to embarrass a very fine Dodger team last night, pushing the envelope on the bases and also making some fine plays in the field. The Twins aren't blessed with those kind of guys (outside of Buxton) and it is a facet of the game where they won't excel.

I agree that the team doesn't have the same power (or juiced ball) the 2019 team had, I just think that mindset might still be there. I also agree that the Twins don't have the most elite footspeed, but Kepler, Polanco, Taylor, Larnach, and Buxton are all above league average in sprint speed. You're right that Buxton is the only plus plus speed guy (Taylor is in the 76th percentile). I guess what I'm trying to say is they aren't the slowest team in the league, but yes, some of their range is impacted by some overall speed. My main point about stealing was I think it's more of an approach by Rocco compared to just being absolutely incompetent in the speed department.

5 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I don't think either the organization or Rocco are anti-stolen base, but they have to have guys that put the odds firmly in their favor when attempting stolen bases and they don't have that with the players they have. The minor league teams are running a lot and this is with Austin Martin on the shelf. 

If the club isn't going to be top five in homers, they need to find other ways to score runs. They aren't top shelf in making contact to "get 'em over, get 'em in" and stringing together hits is hard to do in this high velocity, high strikeout era. I think it's a problem that having more athletic base runners can help, but the help isn't here yet.

You're right, outside of Taylor, the Twins aren't really going to send anyone frequently. We've seen Kepler try a couple times (unsuccessfully) but Buxton won't because it's an injury risk. It will be interesting to see if they expand the stolen base attempts with guys like Royce Lewis when he gets healthy. The Twins have always been conservative stealing bases under Rocco, so I doubt anything changes too much, but who knows.

19 hours ago, MGX said:

The Marlins have said they're happy with his defense so I looked it up & see he hasn't made an error yet. He has limited range, but to make him out as an awful fielder when he has a perfect 1.000 fielding percentage isn't accurate.

Overall, we agree on the trade. I see no need to try to make Arraez look worse than he is, he's a good player & I still like the trade for the Twins. 

I agree it was a good trade, but I will again say that every metric available says he's one of the worst defenders in the league. Just because he hasn't made an error doesn't make him good. -3 OAA 25 games into the season is really really bad. I understand that the Marlins say they've been satisfied, but the analytics don't lie.