Deadline Primer: Should Nick Gordon Be On The Table?

I would rather shop Polanco around. He loses value because of his play this year and he's out of options. Maybe he could bring back one of Miami's relief pitchers. They're in need of acost contolled shortstop.

 

We have two players who should be off limits for high-quality longtime controlled starting pitching.

 

Our future DH (Sano) and Berrios.

 

Why is he a future DH? Is he going all of a sudden be really bad at third?  Do the Twins have another player in the minors who would push him off third? 

Let's turn the question around. What kind of pitcher needs to be on the table?

 

I believe the Twins need a bona fide #2 starter who has stretches of pitching like an ace and hardly ever has stretches of pitching like a mid-rotation guy or worse. Any pitcher who doesn't meet this standard just isn't going to catapult this team to the next level.

 

Do you agree or disagree with this premise? Do Quintana, Gray, or Straily fit this description?

 

I personally don't care one way or another about retaining Gordon per se when his absence doesn't create a void. I'm more interested in the prize, and whether the prize came at a fair price.

Gordon has to be on the table. First of all there is increasing concern about him staying at short (see Beradinos recent article). If he can't stick at ss he loses substantial value. Mostly they need to get some real pitchers in here during the core 4s cost controlled years. How will they do that without trading?

Edited July 13, 2017 by Linus

The problem: trading Gordon alone will not yield the young controllable pitching we would want in return.

 

Our other high prospects to add are pitchers we cannot afford to let go. We do not want to give up the “core four.”

 

No other team will assign substantial trade value to Rosario or Escobar.

 

Ergo, we keep him (unless another team wants to do something silly)

….add Planco to Rosario and Escobar (ie adding Planco to Gordon will not suddenly get us a young controllable #2 starter)

Then good luck to them getting such a return elsewhere, to include either would be insane for the Twins. Sano is worth more than Archer straight up. Trading away Berrios defeats the entire purpose of trying to build out a legitimate rotation.

But you have to ask yourself, is Tampa Bay better or worse without Archer, so obviously, they are trying to get better by trading him, what do the Twins have that makes Tampa better without Archer? Probably someone like Berrios which of course defeats the purpose for the Twins. Archer ain't happening, so quit thinking about it

Forget about all these guys. Forget about whether or not Nick Gordon sticks at shortstop.Are the Pirates open to trading Cole? That's what I want to know. If so what does it take? Is his value down right now? Could he be had for Gordon, Romero, and a few throw ins? He has ace potential. Is in his prime. Controllable for a few more years. Is this a guy we give up Gordon and maybe another of our top 3-5 for?

I'm not sure what the right answer is either. Prospects, and specifically their rankings can rise and fall quickly. Personally I'm trading a fast rising prospect, especially if there is a surplus in the organization at the position, before a bad season crashes their ranking.

 

I keep bringing up this example, and I'm sure there are more out there... Would Giolito and Lopez bring back a 4-5 WAR MLB player today? Probably not. The Nationals sold high at the right time.

Well, I think that Giolito and Lopez right now would blow every Twins minor league pitchers right out of the water right now, even with their regressions that they have had at this point. I mean, they would probably be in the Twins rotation as we speak if they were in the Twins system. I don't think Turley, Jorge or any of the guys they have run back and forth are even close to as good as those two. I'd say they are on the same plane as Mejia right now.

 

So when looking at that, how do they compare to Quintana? I think Archer is out of our league as the Twins have nothing that makes Tampa better, it would be totally different if Archer was in his walk year or close to it, then his value goes way down, but right now the Twins would be lucky to pry away a Gray or a Straily type. What did Boston give up for Pomeranz last year? Pomeranz is probably about as close of a match to Straily as you could find, both went from Oakland where they were mediocre to the national league and found themselves in a good situation and produced.

Edited July 13, 2017 by Twodogs

Quintana is like the poster-child in any "Ace" or "Not Ace" discussion, right? He is undoubtedly very good, but in almost any playoff series he will be the underdog to the other team's #1 starter. He has been durable and effective, but don't have amazing stuff. I personally consider him an "Ace", but I have a big tent when it comes to defining who is or isn't an Ace. I respect those who disagree.

Yeah he's kinda middle of the road as far as Aces go, and yeah he would be over matched by most other teams Aces. However, he might be a tad bit better on a good defensive team, plus a guy like him matching up against the other teams Aces means that Berrios and Santana match up against the other teams #2 and #3 guys which gives those guys a much better chance than they would currently have against the #1 and #2??

Gordon is not irreplaceable!  He will not be this perennial all-star that not only anchors the defense but is a force at the plate--of course he is made available.  Just don't expect much for him unless he proves himself as a star at the MLB level.  Since Royce Lewis is the poster boy for the new FO I expect mountains to be moved to get him to the Twins as a SS.  Which means Gordon has to go or Sano to 1B and Lewis and Gordon are 3B/SS pair.

Nice to see a big debate about going after a very good/excellent SP with top prospects. The team is finally getting better. 

 

Gordon has to be on the table to get the talent and control the Twins need in a SP. The bigger question is: Are the Twins willing to include Kepler and Gordon (+ others) in a trade to get one of the top four mentioned? I'd say yes to Archer, who is under control through 2021. I've been assuming in previous TD posts that the Twins won't go that big - but I'd like to see them try. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you trade you're going to have to outbid a bunch of others as well, and you lose 3-5 quality players. 

You are going to overpay if you are trading for it or if you are bidding on FA's. This board and you seem to be saying everything is an overpay which means that the Twins will be left to develop a starting rotation and play for 2020+.

It would be great to have the perfect deal fall into the Twins laps but most likely that isn't going to happen and if they want to get serious about building a rotation then they will need to ante up even if it hurts.

 

But you have to ask yourself, is Tampa Bay better or worse without Archer, so obviously, they are trying to get better by trading him, what do the Twins have that makes Tampa better without Archer? Probably someone like Berrios which of course defeats the purpose for the Twins. Archer ain't happening, so quit thinking about it

 

Well eventually they will lose Archer anyway, that's always the logic in that sort of situation. I agree it's not happening though. The more general point is that, from the Twins perspective, picking up 4 wins one place is pointless if they give up several wins they have already - at that point, they may as well just sign a mediocre free agent and not give up anyone.

 

Most posters seem to struggle with the fact that the Twins don't have enough total talent in the organization to turn the MLB club into a serious contender . . . there's really no amount of trading that could accomplish that even if everyone in the organization is "on the table." It's like the baseball equivalent of conservation of energy, the form may change but the total amount must remain the same.

 

 

Edited July 13, 2017 by drivlikejehu

I love these kinds of discussions.  Kinda gets the juices flowing.  However, right now, the Twins are in building mode.  Note:  I didn't say rebuilding.  

 

There are many young plays at the MLB level, with a few veterans to back-fill in time of need.  In other words:  If I'm the GM, this is not the year to spend big or look at big trade scenarios.  I'd be looking for the next guys to step-up and replace those fill-in veterans.  Maybe there are some MiLB trades that would be helpful.

 

Easy targets:  SP and RP.  And, I'm also very leery of any MLB SP that has thrown more that 200 innings over 2-3 years.

I think the Twins go one of two ways

 

1 - trade for young controllable pitchers

 

2 - trade Ervin and Dozier for controllable guys/prospects

 

If we went route number two I would hope we would keep Gordon because we are playing for the future and be content with Berrios, Gonsalves, Romero, plus what we fetched in a trade.

 

If we are moving guys like Gordon I would be okay with him as the centerpiece for a guy like Quintana. Ideally Archer but he is really good with 4 cheap years left

How do you trade Santana and have a respectable rotation next year? Another year of the core 4 cost controlled years down the drain. If you are trading Santana for prospects then you kicking this can down the road a couple more years. Might as well see what you can get for the core 4 then.

I'm not sure why the conversation revolves around either FA or trade. IMO both should be seriously contemplated. A rotation next year of:

 

Quintana

Lance Lynn

Berrios

Santana

Mejia

 

With Jorge, Romero/Gonsalves (whoever you don't trade) at AAA and the Thorpedo at AA.

 

Combine that with our current lineup and the team is a legit playoff contender. That is a rotation that will be around for several years as well. If you don't like Lynn or Quintana there are other similar options available instead. The point is we could actually have an above average rotation next year without sacrificing any current major league asset. Put together with a hopefully above average hitters and suddenly this team is expected to be a playoff contender.

 

How do you trade Santana and have a respectable rotation next year? Another year of the core 4 cost controlled years down the drain. If you are trading Santana for prospects then you kicking this can down the road a couple more years. Might as well see what you can get for the core 4 then.

 

It would set them back that's for sure.  The problem is who replaces him.  We would literally have one solid starter (Berrios) whose still very very green followed by Mejia who may or may not develop into a solid starter and then a whole lot of garbage behind him (Gibson, Santiago, Colon...yuck). 

 

That's a tough pill to swallow considering how little there is down the pipeline on the farm besides Jorge, Romero and Gonsalves.  And besides Romero most of the options are back of rotation types at best. 

 

I guess you can cross your fingers and hope May comes back successfully mid next season, but he will be on an innings limit and not likely himself for much of it.  Maybe if Thorpe continues to progress and they move him up to AA by years end he could be an option by early 2019, but that's a lot of ifs. 

 

As I've been saying since the draft.  The Twins should have gone after college starters with the #1 pick and #35 supplementary pick.  I'm tired of listening to the no-it-alls who scream "you never ever draft pitchers with high draft picks because they ALWAYS FAIL" or the ones that say you only "draft the best player available" blah blah blah. 

 

This organization can not continue to ignore it's biggest glaring deficiency.  To not have drafted and developed an ACE in 35 years (Frank Viola was the last) is atrocious.  Enough with the excuses address the problem NOW! 

Edited July 13, 2017 by laloesch

 

Gordon is not irreplaceable!  He will not be this perennial all-star that not only anchors the defense but is a force at the plate--of course he is made available.  Just don't expect much for him unless he proves himself as a star at the MLB level.  Since Royce Lewis is the poster boy for the new FO I expect mountains to be moved to get him to the Twins as a SS.  Which means Gordon has to go or Sano to 1B and Lewis and Gordon are 3B/SS pair.

 

You do realize that Lewis is like 5 years away from playing in the MLB, right?  They're going to need someone in between now and 5 years to play SS.

 

It would set them back that's for sure.  The problem is who replaces him.  We would literally have one solid starter (Berrios) whose still very very green followed by Mejia who may or may not develop into a solid starter and then a whole lot of garbage behind him (Gibson, Santiago, Colon...yuck). 

 

That's a tough pill to swallow considering how little there is down the pipeline on the farm besides Jorge, Romero and Gonsalves.  And besides Romero most of the options are back of rotation types at best. 

 

I guess you can cross your fingers and hope May comes back successfully mid next season, but he will be on an innings limit and not likely himself for much of it.  Maybe if Thorpe continues to progress and they move him up to AA by years end he could be an option by early 2019, but that's a lot of ifs. 

 

As I've been saying since the draft.  The Twins should have gone after college starters with the #1 pick and #35 supplementary pick.  I'm tired of listening to the no-it-alls who scream "you never ever draft pitchers with high draft picks because they ALWAYS FAIL" or the ones that say you only "draft the best player available" blah blah blah. 

 

This organization can not continue to ignore it's biggest glaring deficiency.  To not have drafted and developed an ACE in 35 years (Frank Viola was the last) is atrocious.  Enough with the excuses address the problem NOW! 

I dunno.  It's complicated.  There may also be no solution.  A bunch of basketball teams are pulling out all the stops to compete with Golden State, but it may just not be possible for most.  There may be nothing the Twins can do to fix their rotation enough to compete for a WS without giving up their current roster.  I think this year's draft helped.

IF we traded Santana, we would free up money to sign the next Ervin Santana.  We will also likely dump one of Gibson or Santiago or maybe both.  I also think a trade for Santana probably involves taking Hughes and a portion of his salary.  

 

The return would also (hopefully) provide more trade flexibility.  

 

We COULD have drafted college pitchers.  Legit question, what does Royce Lewis fetch in trade?  I'm guessing with his initial success, we may well be able to get a proven MLB ready starter.  

Do we need Gordon, Javier, Polacios, Lewis, and Vielma was recently compared to a young Omar Vizquel?  He may be underrated while others may be overrated.

Would we rather have Rooker or Kiriloff?  What could Rooker fetch looking like he could climb rapidly?

In my mind, we're only trading Santana if we've identified a few gettable key targets in FA AND we also plan on trading for another starter, now or once the season ends.  

 

 

Sano will be a 1B before he's a DH. Likely starting in 2019.

I would personally extend Dozier a couple years and play him, Gordon and Polanco at 2b, ss and 3b. Be the bridge until some of the lower level bats shake out.

 

Which one would you play at 3rd though?  Dozier and Polanco don't have the arm to play there and Gordon isn't going to put up the numbers you would want from a 3rd baseman. Gordon is a line drive hitter that uses his speed to get doubles and triples.  He'll be lucky to have 10 + homers a season in the MLB.