Can the Twins Solve Their Starting Pitching Woes With a Little Extra Rest?

Take a quick glance at their monthly numbers and just how bad August has been.

Without diving too deep into the numbers, we can clearly see that both pitchers have hit a wall. Berrios and Gibson both pitched career high innings in 2018, with Berrios going 192 1/3 innings and Gibson reaching 196 2/3 innings and both have been chugging along in 2019. Berrios is clearly having the better year, but Gibson had at least been someone you could count on to get pretty decent results every five days or so. With the postseason looming on the horizon, the Twins will want to do everything they can to get the rotation right.

While it is normal for pitchers to wear down as the season winds on, both Berrios and Gibson have seen significant decreases in their fastball velocities of late. Berrios’ average four-seam fastball is down to 92.74 mph in August (high of 94.14 mph in April) with his two-seamer down to 91.47 mph (high of 93.4 in June). Gibson is in the same boat as his four-seamer is down to 92.81 mph (high of 94.43 in June) and his two-seamer came in at 92.61 mph (high of 94.11 in June). Since both Gibson and Berrios have good but not elite velocity, losing a tick or two on their fastballs can be quite a detriment to success.

Doubly burdensome is the loss of control that has plagued both Berrios and Gibson. Berrios’ mechanics have been out of whack and he has been working with the Twins staff to try and get back on track. Both pitchers have walk rates pushing 10% in the month of August along with WHIPs that are blush-worthy (1.87 for Berrios and 1.57 for Gibson). Berrios has been unable to get batters to chase, especially his curve ball, which batters are laying off of for the most part and crushing when they make contact.

*Berrios' most recent start against Chicago is not included in the graphs.

It’s possible that Berrios is tipping his curve ball, which is hopefully something the Twins staff can identify and correct, but that still doesn’t solve the lack of velocity and control.

Gibson hasn’t fared much better:

The numbers tell us what we already knew but don’t help us fix the problem. However, there is one Twins pitcher who has been fairly consistent and solid over the course of the season. We need look no further than the case of rotation-mate Michael Pineda to find an obvious, but potentially potent solution.

Unlike with Gibson and Berrios, the Twins have been more careful and deliberate in getting Pineda rest this season. Pineda has twice hit the 10-day IL with somewhat dubious injuries allowing the Twins to limit his innings. Of course, Pineda did not pitch in 2018 because of Tommy John surgery and has an extensive injury history, so the Twins were inclined to limit his innings this year and it has seemed to work well for Pineda. His numbers have improved in the second half as his ERA has gone from 4.56 in the first half to 3.27 in the second and he has maintained his fastball velocity through the year.

Minnesota is entering a stretch run and undoubtedly wants to run their best starters out each game. However, the Twins may benefit in both the long and short term by skipping both Berrios and Gibson in the rotation. Neither have pitched well of late, so while having Devin Smeltzer, Lewis Thorpe, or even Kohl Stewart pitch in big games down the stretch isn’t all that appealing, they can’t do much worse than what Berrios and Gibson have done in the month of August. More importantly, giving Berrios and Gibson a break may give them a chance to get back some velocity and control and the opportunity to reset mentally as well.

If the division lead continues to grow with rosters expanding in September, Minnesota may even want to consider a six-man rotation. The Twins have been blessed to have five relatively healthy starters for the course of 2019, but they could all probably use a bit of a break at this point in the season. Pineda (5.43 ERA), Odorizzi (4.76 ERA), and Gibson (5.55 ERA) haven’t pitched well on the normal four-days rest anyway, and with Minnesota not having another scheduled off day until Sept. 9 throwing in a sixth starter could help. With the loss of Jose Ramirez, Corey Kluber’s recent setback in his rehab stint, and Brad Hand’s ineffectiveness of late the Twins may be able to extend their division lead over Cleveland, making it all the easier to get the rotation some extra rest. The Twins could also give the pitchers most likely to be in the postseason rotation more abbreviated starts, pulling them from the game before their pitch counts mount.

We all know how great the Twins offense has been and fans can feel pretty good about the bullpen going into the postseason, but getting the rotation right is crucial. The Twins don’t have the formidable playoff rotation of say the Houston Astros (who does?), but getting Berrios going is a must if the Twins hope to go anywhere. Gibson might not be as important, but Minnesota will need all the help they can get. Making sure Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, and Marin Perez are as rested as possible can only be a plus.

After not picking up an additional starter at the trade deadline, the Twins are forced to roll with the pitchers who got them to where they are. While Minnesota doesn’t have anyone’s idea of an ideal postseason rotation, putting the rotation in the best position to succeed by having the starters well-rested is the best the Twins can do at this point. With additional days off in the postseason the Twins will be better able to utilize the bullpen, but all will be for naught if the starters don’t at least keep the offense in the game. Here’s hoping for the best!