Arizona's Cautionary Tale

 I don't think all of Arizona's moves were as clearly mistakes at the time as you seem to think they were. 

I'm speaking more based on the Keith Law column, that really went into detail on the mistakes... Yoan Lopez, leaving $1.7 million in draft budget, selling Toussaint, trading Swanson, not knowing trade rules. 

I'll give them a pass on Greinke and some other moves with the major league roster, if you think you can compete I think it's a defensible deal, knowing full well the back-end of his contract would likely end up as a mistake. 

I don't think anyone here wants the hire to be an old school type of guy like LaRussa.

Exactly. Pretty sure I speak for 75-80% of fans when I say hiring a dinosaur like LaRussa for his first executive job ever would be a huge disappointment.

It was a very general comparison. Most Twins fans would like the team to restructure the front office from outside. Most would like the new front office to be aggressive and creative in addressing the rotation. Many (perhaps not you) would like to see the team finally take a plunge on a true top FA starter. 

Definitely seems like you're nitpicking, especially when you're calling Greinke simply a "32-year-old" without acknowledging that he led baseball in ERA last year, or calling Shelby Miller a "mid-rotation starter" in hindsight. I'm sorry but these are just very slanted comments. 

 

 

Twins fans do want the President / GM model, I think they can and will do a lot better than 2 guys with practically no experience in Front Office roles (I know Stewart was in a FO at one point, but I think that was 10 years prior to getting AZ job).  

I later clarified I think the Greinke deal was defensible... I called him a 32 year old because that's pretty relevant when discussing a long term contract, not to belittle his ability.  

As for Miller, here a couple of quotes from the day the trade was announced. Really no hindsight about it calling him a mid-rotation starter.  If I was using hindsight, I would've called him a #5 or 6 starter

"Miller is the big name here but the Braves got an absolutely terrific haul of talent for a dependable, mid-rotation starter. Heck, Inciarte may be worth more than Miller by himself and is certainly proof that executives Dave Stewart and Tony La Russa are out of touch in the analytics game."

- Dave Schoenfield ESPN

"But, you know, Miller’s career xFIP is worse than the league average. His regular career FIP is worse than the league average. Last year, his ERA looked good because of home-run suppression. He’s not a proven No. 1, nor is he a proven No. 2. He’s a No. 3 with potential and a lot of innings of not quite tapping into it."

- Fangraphs

Shelby Miller was himself rated as a Top 10 prospect in the game before he came up and posted a 3.22 ERA in the 575 MLB innings all before the age of 25. 

These guys looked like bona fide front of the rotation starters. Exactly what the Twins sorely need. But the way things have played out is a reminder that nothing is guaranteed with these kinds of acquisitions. Far from it. 

No one thought of Miller as a bona fide front of the rotation starter, I think you are misremembering.  

I cannot recall a trade in MLB history that was as universally laughed IMMEDIATELY upon it's announcement as the Miller trade was.  

It's very easy to look back now and see these moves were foolish. But if you really feel your team is on the brink and you want to make that big push -- the kind of big push that EVERYONE was yearning for from TR when the Twins couldn't quite get over the hump in the 2000s -- these were defensible when they were made.

 

Greinke has been one of the better pitchers in the game for most of his career and posted a freakin 1.66 ERA last year. Shelby Miller was himself rated as a Top 10 prospect in the game before he came up and posted a 3.22 ERA in the 575 MLB innings all before the age of 25. 

These guys looked like bona fide front of the rotation starters. Exactly what the Twins sorely need. But the way things have played out is a reminder that nothing is guaranteed with these kinds of acquisitions. Far from it. 

Neither of the DBacks moves were celebtrated on their own by independent outlets. Fangraphs valuated the Miller trade as a massive overpay. The Greinke contract was an overpay- even Greinke is quoted somewhere as saying "I'm not really this good." The DBacks horrible execution doesn't invalidate the strategy.

IMO the Miller trade reeks of a manager-turned-officer reaching back to get one of his former players. I realize  Miller didn't debut for the Cards until 2012 but they shared spring trainings together before that.

I just feel like you're talking about Swanson as some sort of can't-miss stud because of his lofty prospect ranking. But Miller was a former first-round pick, a product of the inimitable Cardinals system, BA's #6 overall prospect before graduating, and a guy who found consistent success through his first several years in the majors.

I think everyone believed they overpaid, but that's what it takes to get a young, successful, controllable MLB starter. 

Basically, it looks like Dbacks ran out of patience and made hasty decisions aimed at pushing their timeline ahead. And, really, that's the cautionary tale here. But at the same time, how much more patient can the Twins afford to be? 

I don't know, Swanson was literally the #1 pick in the draft 5 months before this trade. They also gave up a top 100 pitching prospect AND Ender Inciarte.  There were articles written at the time that argued 5 years of Inciarte was worth more than 3 years of Miller... completely ignoring Swanson and Blair. 

I get the overall point you are trying to make in your last paragraph here about timelines, I'm just disagreeing with the notion that the Diamondbacks are a good comparison.  The Twins aren't hiring Larussa and Stewart who are so far over their heads. 

Vernon Wells to the Angels?

 

Matt Kemp for Yasmani Grandal is probably another one.

 

The previous Arizona regime dealing Eaton and Skaggs for Trumbo was pretty baffling.

 

A lot of folks here laughed at the White Sox trading for Shields, and they might have been right (although the White Sox didn't pick up the full contract or give up a whole lot in talent).

The Wells trade is good example.  

But there really isn't a comparison though for giving up a 4 war Center Fielder (with 5 years of control), 1st overall pick in the most recent draft, and a top 100 pitching prospect, for a guy who at best is a #2 starter with 3 years of control left. 

Basically, it looks like Dbacks ran out of patience and made hasty decisions aimed at pushing their timeline ahead. And, really, that's the cautionary tale here. But at the same time, how much more patient can the Twins afford to be? 

Sano and Buxton are free agents after the 2021 season. Kepler after 2022. They have a couple years yet before they need to start worrying about their window closing and making panic moves.