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    Am I Still Excited About Willians Astudillo?


    Nick Nelson

    In this introspective journey, a mid-30s Twins fan confronts his complicated feelings about the enigmatic player known as La Tortuga.

    Image courtesy of David Berding, USA Today

    Twins Video

    "Our beautiful baby boy!" I cried, as Willians Astudillo hustled into second with a double during some random early-summer evening in 2019.

    My wife (fiancée at the time) looked at me with an expression combining befuddlement and a touch of embarrassment. It was hardly the first time she'd overheard such an outburst from me during a Twins game around this time, but that didn't make it seem any less strange to her.

    And I mean, it WAS strange. It's an odd type of behavior from an adult person who generally watches baseball with a detached analytical enjoyment. Not to say I don't get excited or emotional – I definitely do – but yeah, I wouldn't say it's normal for me to stan a player so irrationally and exuberantly that I resort to infant-speak and swoon at his most pedestrian of achievements on the field.

    Willians just has that effect. Or at least, he did.

    Over the course of that 2019 season, Astudillo's magical mystique began to fade. Now, I find myself wondering if it still exists.

    While the light has dimmed, I do think there's still a spark, and it intrigues me given his functional fit within this season's reshaped roster.

    THE LEGEND OF TORTUGA

    First, since he's been out of sight for so long, let us remind ourselves of why Astudillo became such a magnetic attraction to begin with. He arrived as a relative unknown in 2018 – a 26-year-old minor-league journeyman called up for a late-season look after catching some eyes in Rochester.

    In 29 games as a rookie in Minnesota, Astudillo did it all. He raked to the tune of .355/.371/.516, striking out only three times in 97 trips to the plate. He appeared at six different positions, including pitcher. He was a beaming ray of light for Twins fans in the waning weeks of a disappointing season.

    It wasn't just Astudillo's performance that earned him affinity. It was his VIBE. The man was utterly unique, like nothing any of us had seen before. Every single thing about him screamed "sandlot baseball." He swung at everything and made contact with everything. In spring training he executed a

    from behind the plate. He earned himself a label as "one of baseball's most entertaining players" from Sports Illustrated's Emma Baccellieri following his majestic celebration of a home run in the Venezuelan Winter League.

    Astudillo became a living meme, and an oddly inspirational figure, openly challenging the prototype for a major-league body.

    Ever the smiling jokester, Willians exuded joy and youthful enthusiasm in an infectious way that had plenty of us developing weird pet names and anticipating his at-bats. The guy was just so damn easy to root for.

    TURTLE ON ITS BACK

    Enthralled as we may have been by La Tortuga, most of us weren't blind to the realities of his ceiling and sustainability. He came to the Twins as an unheralded 26-year-old with no MLB experience. Coming off a season where he batted .342 for Arizona's Triple-A affiliate, Astudillo generated little demand on the market and signed a minor-league contract.

    As good as he looked during his rookie stint in 2018, it was in a sample of less than 100 plate appearances.

    Still, there was a palpable buzz surrounding Astudillo in spring of 2019. He was viewed as a major wild-card in Minnesota's plans, with the potential to contribute in significant ways if he could keep raking as a versatile defender and occasional backstop. Unfortunately, the ensuing season served as a harsh reality check.

    Pitchers quickly began to take advantage of his swing-at-everything approach, rarely giving him anything decent to hit. Astudillo's production sagged, and he saw a 200-point drop in OPS. Over 204 plate appearances, he slashed .268/.299/.379, while his defensive shortcomings became more evident and impactful, especially behind the plate. FanGraphs pegged him as a sub-replacement level player (-0.2 WAR).

    La Tortuga's luster wore off in a hurry, and as a result, he came into 2020 as more of an afterthought. The 28-year-old spent most of his summer at the alternate site, making just 16 regular-season PAs for the Twins. His only postseason appearance came when he entered as a pinch-hitter in the ninth inning of Game 1, representing the tying run with two on and one out, and instantly hit into a game-ending double play.

    Thus we arrive at the present situation. Entering 2021, Astudillo is even more of an afterthought; in fact, some believe he might be in danger of losing his 40-man roster spot as the club faces crunches with late additions. Not me. I actually see Astudillo having a uniquely useful fit as the 26th man on this year's Twins team, perhaps giving him one more chance to recapture the magic.

    ASTUDILLO'S 2021 OUTLOOK

    There's no way Willians will be lined up for any kind of substantial role on the 2021 Twins, at least not out of the gate. But keep in mind that despite his recent struggles, he's still a likable clubhouse presence with a .294/.319/.428 slash line in 317 MLB plate appearances and, most importantly, the ability to provide depth at some key spots.

    Consider the three defensive positions where Astudillo has played more than 100 innings in the majors:

    • Catcher. As third catcher behind Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers, Astudillo would make it a lot more easy to occasionally play the non-starter at DH (or first base or left field, in Garver's case), or to use them as pinch-hitters.
    • Third base. Josh Donaldson is obviously the biggest injury concern on the roster. While Luis Arráez is now penciled as his top backup, the Twins currently have no other bench players who can fill in there, and Arráez is likely to be occupied by other assignments frequently. Also, it's very possible Astudillo is a better defender than Arráez at third.
    • First base. This is a position where the Twins have sacrificed depth by switching to Arráez in the utility role. Marwin González played more than 200 innings at first in his two years with the Twins, and Ehire Adrianza played there a bunch in 2019. I doubt we'll ever see Arráez play at first base in a major-league game. Astudillo can handle it fine.

    Arráez and Astudillo actually make for a pretty functional backup infielder combo, giving the Twins coverage all around the diamond while also providing Baldelli with contact hitters from both sides of the plate, to be plugged into the lineup or pinch-hit.

    I'm not saying Astudillo is a high-quality defender at any of the positions he plays, but he's competent enough at all of them. And while his bat hurtled back to Earth in 2019, the .678 OPS he posted was fine for a versatile, sparsely-used bench guy.

    He can be that. Unlike Travis Blankenhorn or Nick Gordon, there's no need to feed Astudillo regular ABs for the sake of his development. And, I'm still not quite willing to give up on him as an offensive difference-maker. He just wrapped up an absolutely dominant showing in the Venezuelan Winter League, where he batted .379 and led all hitters in total bases.

    Maybe it's just the flickering embers of faith and affinity still burning within me, but I've reached the conclusion that... yeah, I am still kind of excited about Astudillo. And now that the hype and oversized expectations have died down a bit, I think he's got a real chance to impress people as a useful piece on this 2021 Twins team.

    Now almost 30, it's been a long journey for Astudillo. But if you're counting him out at this point, you clearly never read the story of The Tortoise and the Hare.

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    I'm a big fan of Astudillo. Last part of 2019, pitchers figured him out. He needed 2020 to adjust but of the shortened season and him coming down with covid he never had a chance. He was put in situations that he had no way to come out on top.

    2021, he should have time to figure it out. He's a great contact hitter once he finds discipline.

     

    You have the same access to the data that I do. 

     

    1) Go to baseball-reference.com.

    2) Look up Astudillo. The good macro stats to look at for comparison to others are OPS+, WAR, dWAR (i.e., no cherry picking specific stats).

    3) Pull up the 87 and 91 teams and look at the same macro stats.

     

    It's a 5 minute exercise, or less.

    OK, so you're making statements that you have no interest in backing up. Got it. 

    I love "La Tortuga".           Here's why:  

    • I think he provides spark, energy and by all accounts I've come across, is a great club house presence
    • He's versatile (yes, that versatility does manifest at a "jack of all trades type")
    • He is an "Everyman" and a great story
    • La Tortuga is a cool nickname, and if you don't like it, you obviously hate puppies and your Oma (your a soulless monster)
    • He's fun, and frankly baseball is supposed to be fun

    Now does this mean that he has to be a large and integral part of the roster?    I think the team would be in trouble if he was, but he should be a part of it, even if that part is very small.

     

    If the Twins decided to part ways with La Tortuga and release him back into the wild, I would also be ok with it, but I do intend on enjoying his (hopefully small contributions since that means that our other big cogs on the team are all running smoothly).

     

    It baseball, and baseball is supposed to be fun and allow us to root for the "everyman" because it is right and good.     There shouldn't be this much angst over this :).

     

    I love "La Tortuga".           Here's why:  

    • I think he provides spark, energy and by all accounts I've come across, is a great club house presence
    • He's versatile (yes, that versatility does manifest at a "jack of all trades type")
    • He is an "Everyman" and a great story
    • La Tortuga is a cool nickname, and if you don't like it, you obviously hate puppies and your Oma (your a soulless monster)
    • He's fun, and frankly baseball is supposed to be fun

    Now does this mean that he has to be a large and integral part of the roster?    I think the team would be in trouble if he was, but he should be a part of it, even if that part is very small.

     

    If the Twins decided to part ways with La Tortuga and release him back into the wild, I would also be ok with it, but I do intend on enjoying his (hopefully small contributions since that means that our other big cogs on the team are all running smoothly).

     

    It baseball, and baseball is supposed to be fun and allow us to root for the "everyman" because it is right and good.     There shouldn't be this much angst over this :).

    The problem is that Rocco can't be trusted to not use him - Tortuga is to him what Punto was to Gardy. (Except Punto was useful in the field.)

     

    I joked about it last year until he sent him up to PH in the playoffs. It was then that I realized my jokes had manifested themselves into reality.

     

    Telis is a far better catcher and hitter than Astudillo, but Astudillo being versatile (even if not good at any of those spots) is probably more valuable as the 26th man. 

    By what measure is Telis a "far better" hitter than Astudillo? Willians has an OPS in the majors that's 200 points higher and 100 points higher in Triple-A. I would say Astudillo is pretty clearly the better hitter.

    I know he's not great at 3B but Sano can play there in an emergency.  I see Astudillo as a 26-28th player on the roster.  I expect the bench to be Cave, Arraez, Jeffers (or Garver), Gordon (for Pete's sake, give him a chance, this team could use some speed) and Rooker and Astudillo will get playing time filling in for injured players.

    Perhaps, I can't/won't defend Rocco's use of him and like I said if the Twins were to cut bait with Tortuga, I would feel sad (even inconsolable for like...10 - 15 seconds), but I would move on the the next Everyman to root for.

     

    No one's saying you have to like him, or even root for him for that matter.     But sometimes it's ok to not grind on those folks who like to believe that the Puntos and Tortugas will make a huge difference ;).

     

    The problem is that Rocco can't be trusted to not use him - Tortuga is to him what Punto was to Gardy. (Except Punto was useful in the field.)

     

    I joked about it last year until he sent him up to PH in the playoffs. It was then that I realized my jokes had manifested themselves into reality.

     

     

    Perhaps, I can't/won't defend Rocco's use of him and like I said if the Twins were to cut bait with Tortuga, I would feel sad (even inconsolable for like...10 - 15 seconds), but I would move on the the next Everyman to root for.

     

    No one's saying you have to like him, or even root for him for that matter.     But sometimes it's ok to not grind on those folks who like to believe that the Puntos and Tortugas will make a huge difference ;).

    And any and everyone is free to root root root for their favorite characters and feel-good stories. I'm not stopping them.

     

    But in the last 30 years there's a whole lot of fun characters and/or great stories. What hasn't there been? A World Series.

     

    Personally, I'll take the latter 100% of the time.

    Whether a fan of Astudillo or not, I think there are points to be made/understoo3 about him that some just don't recognize as to his relative "importance" or place on the roster. And let me be clear here that despite being a fan, for various reasons, I've openly stated I wish the Twins would bring in another catcher for St Paul to join Tellis and I've been hoping the glut of solid/decent FA infielders still available would allow the Twins to spend an extra couple $M to provide even greater depth and flexibility to the bench in case of the injury bug hitting again. Now, barring injury, there may not be a lot of opportunity for games played and AB for a 2nd utility player beyond Arraez, but I'd rather error on the side of caution and bring someone else in. And there are some really solid/interesting options available.

     

    But back to Astudillo:

     

    1] While there have been some inconsistencies at the plate, we have seen he can hit.

     

    2] While by no means a great glove man, he fields what he gets to and has a decent arm. He's not just a softball player on a ML team who stands at a spot. That's kinda ridiculous. He's also not bad as a 3rd catcher. And yes, I've watched many games where he is behind the plate. And I've seen some badly played balls. I've also seen him receive quite competently and be the receiver in well pitched games. So again, while a 3rd catcher option he is not just some guy thrown behind the plate.

     

    3] I hold out hope Gordon can turn himself in to a useful utility man. I have even higher hopes that the powerful and athletic Blankenhorn can "settle in/down" as a hitter and defender who I could see playing 5 positions as a great bench piece.

     

    But NOBODY is going to put those guys on the bench to play once or twice a week at this point. They still need to play daily, even if it's half a season before production and opportunity come calling.

     

    Astudillo is not my perfect choice to be the 26th man. And you don't have to be a fan. That's OK. And he's no super-sub. But when someone just needs a day or two off, or gets tweaked during a game, or you need to shuffle the lineup late in a game, he's exactly what he needs to be: a guy with a decent bat and decent glove who can fill in here and there.

     

    I'm OK if and when he is gone because it means someone better has replaced him. But right now, he does hold value.in his role.

    You have the same access to the data that I do.

     

    1) Go to baseball-reference.com.

    2) Look up Astudillo. The good macro stats to look at for comparison to others are OPS+, WAR, dWAR (i.e., no cherry picking specific stats).

    3) Pull up the 87 and 91 teams and look at the same macro stats.

     

    It's a 5 minute exercise, or less.

    OK, so you're making statements that you have no interest in backing up. Got it.

     

    While it’s a matter of opinion only, whether or not Willians Astudillo is a “better” hitter than players on the 1987 and 1991 Twins teams, it really did only take me about 5 minutes to look up the data (though considerably more minutes than that to prepare and present here) to see that even Astudillo’s worst season so far compared favorably to some of the guys on the ‘87 team. (I used OPS+ here, please apply the usual caveats about comparing guys across time periods and eras)

     

    So while the 1991 team wasn’t too bad, lots of guys below average OPS but not too low, the 1987 team had some real stinkers.

     

    Here are the high(low)lights:

     

    Steve Lombardozzi, the regular second baseman in 1987, had a full season OPS+ of 70, coming off a full season OPS+ of 79 the year before.

     

    Al Newman, the utility guy with 349 PA, had an OPS+ of 59.

     

    And the 1987 catchers, except for Mark Salas, traded mid-season, were awful. The starting catcher all year was Tim Laudner, whose OPS+ was 65, and backup Sal Butera posted a Drew Butera-like OPS+ of 21, a number so low that Astudillo probably couldn’t reach it if he tried—or didn’t try, or however that works.

     

    Is this the right place to mention that Drew Butera also has a World Series ring? :)

    Edited by Hosken Bombo Disco
    light grammatical stuff

    87 was a different era though... That's probably my big complaint in comparing Tortuga to guys on the 87 Twins. The question I'd ask is whether or not he compares favorably to players on WS teams over the last 5-10 years.

     

    87 was a different era though... That's probably my big complaint in comparing Tortuga to guys on the 87 Twins. The question I'd ask is whether or not he compares favorably to players on WS teams over the last 5-10 years.

     

    OPS+ takes eras into consideration as it compares players to other players who played the same year. So does WAR. There is a reason I suggested looking at those metrics.

     

    And, to be clear, I did as I suggested before I wrote my post. I wasn't going to go and do it a second time to respond to someone who seemed to be unreasonably angry at the assertion that Astudillo would not have been the worst player on the 87 and 91 teams. And really, what would have been the point? Why play ball with someone who is unreasonably angry?

    87 was a different era though... That's probably my big complaint in comparing Tortuga to guys on the 87 Twins. The question I'd ask is whether or not he compares favorably to players on WS teams over the last 5-10 years.

    As a back up catcher, I’d guess yes he compares to today’s guys, even as a #2 catcher.



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