3 Reasons to Believe in a Mitch Garver Rebound

Many MLB hitters couldn't find their groove in 2020, including most of the Twins. I too             believe                      that  2021 will be friendlier to Twins hitting. yeah it seems like many Twins fans are hesitant to jump on the band wagon & quick to jump off

I think it's fair to be concerned that Garver's 2019 had something to do with the juiced ball they were using. He was so much better at age 28 than in any other MLB season that it's fair to consider that it may have been a fluke year.

It's great that there are some advanced stats to show that the great hitter might still be in there, and I'm reluctant to put too much stock in anything from the short COVID season, especially when a lot of hitters struggled...but the concern is real.

Now, even if he hits more like 2018 if he defends like 2019-2020 he's still a very solid catcher and contributor for the team. I think he'll bounce back...I just don't know how high the rebound will be.

I'm glad we had a mini-season last year, but I'm evaluating very few players on what happened during.

It is hard to say what Garver did last year is what to expect, just as it is hard to say what he did 2019 is what to expect.  If he can start hitting the fastball again he should be fine. 

The article says he faced same amount of fastballs, but I am wondering if he saw them at same counts.  What I mean is did he see same first pitch fastballs?  It says he took first pitch much more often, but was that because he was taking fastballs or they were off-speed pitches?  Garver was well known to be a guy that would attack fastballs early and take any borderline pitches and off-speed.  If first pitch off-speed was up with taking strikes on them for get me over pitches, expecting him to take, then later in count fastballs that could lead to more misses too.

Think about it, he takes 0-0 off-speed for a strike, now behind 0-1.  He now needs to be concerned of that pitch again and may not be sitting on fastball.  Then as he had the off-speed in mind fastballs get faster and he is more likely to miss.  Teams may have started to pitch "backwards" against him.  

Could be he just was off due to strange season and injuries.  Let's hope for a bounce back season. 

I hope Garver rebounds. I’m skeptical that he will, though. His K rate this year was Sano-at-his-worst bad, seemingly because he had a hard time making contact with much of anything. If you can’t hit the fastball, you’re not gonna last long in the Majors. I’m also worried that 2019 is his 100th percentile outcome. He had a wildly uncharacteristic HR/FB ratio of 29%. That’s up there with Yellich and Bonds. It’s also 15% higher than his 2020 number and a whopping 21% higher than 2018. We need to see more, but it sure looks light an outlier right now. 2020 is obviously a small sample size—but so was 2019. Like I said, I hope his problems this year were a result of the weird offseason and nagging injuries and that he comes back in top form. My hunch is that Garver is probably a mediocre MLB catcher.

I hope Garver rebounds. I’m skeptical that he will, though. His K rate this year was Sano-at-his-worst bad, seemingly because he had a hard time making contact with much of anything. If you can’t hit the fastball, you’re not gonna last long in the Majors. I’m also worried that 2019 is his 100th percentile outcome. He had a wildly uncharacteristic HR/FB ratio of 29%. That’s up there with Yellich and Bonds. It’s also 15% higher than his 2020 number and a whopping 21% higher than 2018. We need to see more, but it sure looks light an outlier right now. 2020 is obviously a small sample size—but so was 2019. Like I said, I hope his problems this year were a result of the weird offseason and nagging injuries and that he comes back in top form. My hunch is that Garver is probably a mediocre MLB catcher.

I’ll add that there’s a lot of value in being a mediocre catcher. But from a roster management standpoint, it’s important to know if you have Mike Piazza or Ron Karkovice on your team.

Garver will certainly rebound - but that's because he couldn't do any worse than he did last year. In fact, if his 1st month is anything like last year's 1st month, he'll be catching in St. Paul.

Every Twins fan is pulling for this guy. But realistically I think the best we can expect is a bat worthy of hitting in the 7 or 8 spot. If the guy hits .250 with 18 HR in a full season of ball we should all be thrilled.