3 Big Questions for the 2025 Twins Bullpen

Twins just need a solid lefty or two and some mid level guys that can effectively eat a few innings at a time. With Duran, Jax, Sands, Stewart and Alcala at the back end, we should be ok. Just need to find a way to keep our A team healthy. Hoping for bounce back seasons from Topa, Stewart and others is a lot of what ifs, Falvey is going to have to go out and get some depth. Relievers are cheaper than starting pitching so maybe if we can build an elite pen like CLE this year, it'll take some of the load off of not having the best rotation in the league.

I think Durán and Alcala get traded. (Saves still get you paid in Arb)  

Lot of the fridge guys get let go off the 40 man (Winder Henriquez, blewettmaybe Topa)  

They are going to do the same thing they did the last few yrs and throw **** at the wall and see what sticks.  
 

You are hoping Varland transfer to the BP like Jax, Stewart stays healthy and one or two of the bullpen projects are a success.

I see a lot of ?s much like last season, hope won't get it done, We picked up a lot of RPs, with a lot of hype of having a great pen. If hype meant anything we'd be winning the WS but none of them ever panned out. 

If Duran were kept as only a closer & had Jax as a fireman, IMO we'd have had more success. I'd hope Duran regain his dominance but he's still a very good reliever. Stop wasting Varland bullets in AAA. Sands breakout is a big plus, I didn't like how they used Alcala this last season but next year I expect good things from him. If we can't get anything good for Paddack in trade, I'd put him in the BP. Right there we have a pretty good high-leverage BP. I'd not mess around with Topa, I just trade him while his value is still up. We won't get a full season from Stewart so we have to find a way to have him healthy at the end of the season for the post.

There were an awful lot of pretty good LHRPs at the deadline that we missed out on. I'd try to scour to come up with one this offseason. That leaves us with low leverage which we can easily fill out in-house with Canterino if he can stay healthy, Raya, Prielipp or others not to mention maybe acquire Thielbar via FA. 

We should have a  better base at BP, but IMO not good enough to experiment Jax at SP.

3.5-4 million is not too much for even the Twins to pay a reliever.  Durán stays.  Stewart is elite when healthy and won’t cost much he also stays.  Glad Varland is in the pen.  We have lots of options heading into next season with several more on the way. I’m more concerned with us keeping Canterino and if he will ever be able to pitch.  He could solve any last remaining bullpen issues.  

10 hours ago, LambchoP said:

Twins just need a solid lefty or two and some mid level guys that can effectively eat a few innings at a time. With Duran, Jax, Sands, Stewart and Alcala at the back end, we should be ok. Just need to find a way to keep our A team healthy. Hoping for bounce back seasons from Topa, Stewart and others is a lot of what ifs, Falvey is going to have to go out and get some depth. Relievers are cheaper than starting pitching so maybe if we can build an elite pen like CLE this year, it'll take some of the load off of not having the best rotation in the league.

They still need to address the closer situation. In all honesty the best thing would have been to deal Duran last winter for a massive haul and they could have either signed a veteran closer or gave the role to Jax.

Now, Duran has a very low trade value compared to last year and they have no choice but to hold onto him. I still feel Jax is the best option in house.

20 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I can’t imagine that Jax wanting to be a starter having any more weight than the 2nd year salesman for XYZ company wanting to be Sales V.P. - glad you both have ambitions!

Paddack - Varland - Topa - Stewart ALL being added to Sands - Alcala - Jax - Duran makes the ‘25 Pen elite. Stewart may only throw 32 innings ……. Topa may only throw 40 innings but if they are both available for October I am happy with that.

Blewett a possibility to keep? Moran or Funderburk throwing to adequate levels? Winder & Headrick for depth? Ronny Henriquez will be in play!

Lopez - Festa - SWR - Ober - Ryan

Morris - Lewis - Matthews - Raya readying at AAA.

I may be naive or dreaming but I think this staff gets it done. NEED a BAT!!!!

Not naive at all. On paper, and health permitting, this does have the makings of a good staff. Although I would still LOVE to find another quality veteran arm for the rotation, and maybe another one for the bullpen.

17 hours ago, Brandon said:

I’m more concerned with us keeping Canterino

What is the latest regarding his status for pitching next season? Will he pitch anywhere over the winter?And if he's not on the 40-man roster, can he be taken in the Rule 5 draft?

22 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Paddack - Varland - Topa - Stewart ALL being added to Sands - Alcala - Jax - Duran makes the ‘25 Pen elite.

If you want an elite bullpen for the playoffs, start the season with 12 good relievers. By the end of the year you'll have 6 that you can actually depend on. Your list is 5 arms short (Paddack is in the rotation or traded) and doesn't have any lefties.

19 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Maybe we can turn Varland into a Pressly by improving his spin rate.

That is a hypothetical you could say about every pitcher the Twins have in AAA.

19 hours ago, Brandon said:

I’m more concerned with us keeping Canterino and if he will ever be able to pitch.  He could solve any last remaining bullpen issues.  

Canterino's all-time high innings pitched in a season is 37. He didn't pitch in 2023 or 2024. The odds he never pitches again are higher than the odds that he solves the Twins bullpen issues. He's going to have to prove he can pitch in AAA before he gets a chance in the majors.

For a guy that can throw it 104 mph, I'm not concerned that Duran "lost 1 mph of fastball velo."  The Twins have the talent available for a pretty good bullpen, but Rocco needs to have clearly defined roles and I just don't think he's capable of that.

In the last week of the season, the Twins TV broadcast team put up a graphic that showed how Duran had pitched in "save" and "non-save" situations.  His numbers were VERY GOOD while closing and VERY BAD when pitching in a non-save situation.  Bringing Duran in for the 7th inning, in a close game, because it's a "high leverage:" situation is not the right way to use him. 

The Guardians don't bring Clase in for the 7th.  No team with a top notch closer does this.  The Twins need a manager who will define specific roles for each pitcher and execute this properly.  

Duran, Jax, Sands, Alcala, Varland, Topa, Stewart.  That's the foundation for a pretty good BP.   Stewart is a Wildcard because his history shows he will be good when you have him, but he's rarely available.  Funderburk and Moran could be 2 LHP that are capable of a bounce back.  

But even with the foundation for a good bullpen I think the Twins need to go out and get TWO solid arms for the BP.  One RH and one LH.  I say TWO because I want to give Jax a shot at the rotation.  I think he could very well be a Reynaldo Lopez/Seth Lugo type of guy.  If he's able to slot in as the #3 SP, that allows the Twins to take the best of Festa, SWR and Matthews for the #5 spot and depth.  I just don't like putting too many eggs in the basket of 2nd year pitchers, each of whom could be on a seasonal innings limit. 

If it doesn't work out (but I think it WILL) you still have a guy who is among the BEST 8th inning guys in baseball.  One of the 2 RP's that the Twins would sign would need to be of a talent level that could cover the 8th inning.  Stewart has shown he can handle the 8th when he's healthy.  Varland has the potential, but I prefer guys like him and Alcala as 7th inning guys.  I wouldn't trade Topa when keeping him gives us another viable option under contract.  

So the question to me is "who are some of the guys the Twins could consider adding to the talent we already have in our BP?"  

The last thing I would like to point out is that I believe the Twins and Duran need to throw his fastball more.  It seemed he would get ahead of guys 0-2 or 1-2 and then instead of throwing some high heat, he would try a breaking pitch and give up a hit.  He needs better command of his fastball, whether that's a 4-seamer or a cutter.  Better command helps every pitcher.  Duran needs the confidence to know he can hit his spot.  He seemed unsure or incapable at times this last season.   

26 minutes ago, TopGunn#22 said:

The last thing I would like to point out is that I believe the Twins and Duran need to throw his fastball more.  It seemed he would get ahead of guys 0-2 or 1-2 and then instead of throwing some high heat, he would try a breaking pitch and give up a hit.  He needs better command of his fastball, whether that's a 4-seamer or a cutter.  Better command helps every pitcher.  Duran needs the confidence to know he can hit his spot.  He seemed unsure or incapable at times this last season.   

This is key. When Duran pitched poorly he wasn't hitting the corners. He was missing well off the plate and throwing strikes middle-middle.

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Duran has very low trade value after this year?
2023 = 3.21 FIP, 81.4% SV, 1.1 fWAR
2024 = 2.85 FIP, 91.3% SV, 1.2 fWAR

There are some indications Duran wasn't as dominant this year as last, but his FIP and save rate were both quite a bit better than last year. His average velocity was right in line with 2022 as well. I'd imagine Duran's value is probably just about the same as it was.

I can guarantee the Twins would have got a better return last winter. Regardless, the Twins should be shopping him if they can cash in a big haul. These power arms don't last forever. 

I agree with bean.  I have been one of the biggest hopeful (hopeless??) believers in Matt Canterino.  He's kind of been my "Holy Grail."  I keep waiting and searching for him to finally do something and it never materializes.  I'm finally at the point where I'm ready to move on.  As precious as 40-man roster spots are, I just can't see the Twins going into 2025 with Canterino on the 40-man or maybe even anywhere in our minor league system.  

2 hours ago, darin617 said:

I can guarantee the Twins would have got a better return last winter. Regardless, the Twins should be shopping him if they can cash in a big haul. These power arms don't last forever. 

The trading team would have received one extra season of Duran so I'm sure you're right. I don't think Duran has lost much of his luster. His 2024 was really solid.

DocBauer, I agree with everything you laid out.  They have some LH guys with potential that could very well bounce back...Funderburk, Headrick, Moran.  But I'd like to see one or two of them emerge as the solid #2 LH and find someone (who that is, neither you are I know at this point) to be the primary LHP for the bullpen.

I must add that the idea of Jax getting a chance to be part of the rotation intrigues me.  The only reason that would keep me from giving him a chance was if they were able to land a SP on a very team friendly contract that could be good enough to slot in at #3.  There aren't many guys who would fit that profile.

But as bad as the bullpen was at times this year, I think it has a chance to be pretty good next season if they aren't decimated by injuries and some guys bounce back.