2024 MLB Draft Day 3 Thread

They must really like Diaw!  That was a deep dive into the draft pool.

*2024 :)

Any thoughts for what today will bring? Probably a lot of pitching. But any handle on who the 11th rounder will be?

In the MLB draft unlike any of the other pro sports drafts players are chosen not just on talent but on whether or not they can be signed and for how much.  I think that is why we didn't draft Dickerson or Sanford instead of Debarge.  Even Sloan would have been a good choice.  Obviously being high school kids they would have wanted too much money.  We only drafted one high school kid and that was Dasan Hall.

Typical Twins draft so far in that they went Hitter, Hitter, Hitter before selecting LHP Hill with their 4th pick.  Then a couple catchers and an OF (and one of the catchers can play OF).  Then 3 pitchers in a row (looking forward to calling Jason Doctorcyzk "Doc" when he finally makes it to the big leagues).

I like the picks so far, especially LHP Dasan Hill.  Hoping they can sign that kid. His video and his projectability are attention getting.  

8 hitters, 4 pitchers.  I have to believe they will balance the draft out with more arms on the 3rd day.  The bats they have chosen so far are interesting.  They have placed lot's of bets on under the radar guys.  I hope those work out.  The tough part about college bats is you really don't know much about them until AA.  A ball is like extended college ball and High A is another level but one most good bats move on from.  AA separates who has a chance to make it and who doesn't.  So it will be a while before we know much.

Really hoping they have a good secret stash of arms they can grab on day 3.  

They needed more bats after taking so few last year.  Yes I am hoping for 4-6 more lottery arms today, to see if they can find something usable.  One other thing I was thinking about,  Sam Parker was a follow and sign option as he went to Juco,  it appears he didn't sign with us.   

They only drafted one true catcher as Bender might be as .much if a 1B as he is a catching option, and Ferrer might stick in the OF even though he was a catcher in HS. We just don't know the plans with him as of yet. So I could see another catcher today.

With only 20 or so picks every year, the math does get a little hard in trying to fill out an entire MILB team. With 10 more picks today, I could see about 4 of them being position players, including the possibility of that extra catcher. The rest, obviously, would be arms. And that would give the team a good balance in this draft between pitchers and position players.

It would be great to have saved enough $ throughout to sneak in another quality HS arm but I think we're too deep for that to happen now.

Is it just me, or are the Twins going to struggle spending all of their draft pool this year? Should everyone but Hill be slot value or less. Some way less?

And it would be very un-Twin-like to target the top tough-to-sign prep players left out there.

2 hours ago, SGL said:

In the MLB draft unlike any of the other pro sports drafts players are chosen not just on talent but on whether or not they can be signed and for how much.  I think that is why we didn't draft Dickerson or Sanford instead of Debarge.  Even Sloan would have been a good choice.  Obviously being high school kids they would have wanted too much money.  We only drafted one high school kid and that was Dasan Hall.

It also has other features that make it unlike all of the other drafts that make the selections somewhat strange.   

MLB draft is the only professional draft in which trading draft picks (with the exception of the limited trades they allowed in recent years) isn't allowed.

MLB draft is also the only draft that selects high school age players without any draft right follow on.  

And, it is the only draft in which there is an explicit draft pool so it isn't just the signability of the player it is fitting that signing into the cumulative draft pool.

I personally believe that the draft rules should be constructed so that the best players are selected first. I would allow teams to trade draft picks just like all of the other professional sports.  That means if a team has a potential problem with signing a draft pick (especially at the top of the draft) they can trade the pick and get extra compensation rather than being forced to select another player.

I would return to the draft and follow rules so a team can sign a player they drafted up to the next draft at a minimum.  I would consider allowing a team that drafts a high school player to retain the draft rights of that pick until the next draft cycle that player is eligible (junior year if player goes to college).

 

 

1 hour ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

They needed more bats after taking so few last year. 

Disagree. Drafts should be at least 60% pitching. Pitchers get injured more often so there is always more attrition. There are more pitchers than hitters used in any season. Pitchers make more $$/WAR than hitters.

Pitching is scarce. Hitting is easier to acquire through free agency.

1 hour ago, nicksaviking said:

Is it just me, or are the Twins going to struggle spending all of their draft pool this year? Should everyone but Hill be slot value or less. Some way less?

And it would be very un-Twin-like to target the top tough-to-sign prep players left out there.

I was wondering the same thing.  How much money do they need for Hill?  They went with players way down on boards early and even two SR signs.  If they are saving for one more HS player I suspect we know fairly early on day 3. Otherwise they aren't saving as much as I think they are I guess.

1 minute ago, Dman said:

I was wondering the same thing.  How much money do they need for Hill?  They went with players way down on boards early and even two SR signs.  If they are saving for one more HS player I suspect we know fairly early on day 3. Otherwise they aren't saving as much as I think they are I guess.

I too am pretty interested as to who will be their 11th round pick. 

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

Disagree. Drafts should be at least 60% pitching. Pitchers get injured more often so there is always more attrition. There are more pitchers than hitters used in any season. Pitchers make more $$/WAR than hitters.

Pitching is scarce. Hitting is easier to acquire through free agency.

Whatever you are good at, you need to capitalize on it.  Currently the Twins have a pretty good method to their madness and have been pretty successful with their strategy.  I saw where they said our farm was the 3rd rated.  My guess is that is with Brooks Lee still included.  Now we didn't gain any huge prospect like last year.  But a few of these guys will likely do well.  Right now we are producing enough pitching prospects.  Some years it will be like last year where 75% of the picks were pitchers,  otherwise the Twins have been pretty close to 50/50 most years.  

4 minutes ago, Dman said:

I was wondering the same thing.  How much money do they need for Hill?  They went with players way down on boards early and even two SR signs.  If they are saving for one more HS player I suspect we know fairly early on day 3. Otherwise they aren't saving as much as I think they are I guess.

Amick might be costing more than we realize and the 2 top picks might be closer to slot than we realize.  

3 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Whatever you are good at, you need to capitalize on it.  Currently the Twins have a pretty good method to their madness and have been pretty successful with their strategy.  I saw where they said our farm was the 3rd rated.  My guess is that is with Brooks Lee still included.  Now we didn't gain any huge prospect like last year.  But a few of these guys will likely do well.  Right now we are producing enough pitching prospects.  Some years it will be like last year where 75% of the picks were pitchers,  otherwise the Twins have been pretty close to 50/50 most years.  

I agree. Pitching is way harder, but that's a good reason for the Twins to do what they are good at, producing hitters found all over the draft, and then move them for controllable pitching. Let the other teams take the 1 in 10 chance of developing a quality starting pitcher while the Twins use their 1 in 5 chance of developing hitters. It won't always work out obviously, but it's worked out better for the Twins lately than developing their own arms.

Maybe it's blind faith, but the Twins have had recent success finding pitchers later on. 

This draft tells me two things:

1. The Twins love the current crop of pitchers in the minors (Festa, Matthews, Raya, Morris, MacLeod, Nowlin, Lewis, Soto to name a few).

2. We aren't trading any of this pitching away in deadline or off-season trades.

I get the feeling that Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids will give up a few more runs next season.

44 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Whatever you are good at, you need to capitalize on it.  Currently the Twins have a pretty good method to their madness and have been pretty successful with their strategy. 

If their strategy is bad at finding cheap, young pitching they will not be competitive long-term with a $120M payroll.

30 minutes ago, Roaddog said:

Maybe it's blind faith, but the Twins have had recent success finding pitchers later on. 

If they're good at finding pitching, then find more of it. Pitchers are currency for trades that every team will always want. They might not need a future second baseman, but everyone can find room for another pitcher.

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

If their strategy is bad at finding cheap, young pitching they will not be competitive long-term with a $120M payroll.

They seem to be finding enough pitching with putting minimal resources into it.  They are now beginning to go for bigger swings on the pitching as well.  We will see if 1 of these pitchers can become the true #1 this team needs to really be in the conversation of competing for WS.  

2 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

Is it just me, or are the Twins going to struggle spending all of their draft pool this year? Should everyone but Hill be slot value or less. Some way less?

I think Hill is pretty spendy (no info, but guessing around 2.5M).  I've heard a couple guys ranked around where he was that had bigger numbers, and if he signs for significantly less than that I am wondering why he fell to 69.

18 minutes ago, SaberNerd said:

I think Hill is pretty spendy (no info, but guessing around 2.5M).  I've heard a couple guys ranked around where he was that had bigger numbers, and if he signs for significantly less than that I am wondering why he fell to 69.

Yeah I just saw Mariners are paying 3M for Sloan so maybe it is gonna cost more than I thought for Hill. Although Hill didn't have the Buzz some of the the other HS pitchers had.  Hopefully they can keep it close to 2M or 2.5M as you suggested.  That means they still need to come up with 1M or more to sign him.

 

If this is the right Michael Carpenter he had some pretty amazing stats in 2024. Granted this is JC ball, but the numbers are impressive.

2024 - Named Region 4 Player of the Year and First Team All-Region 4... led NJCAA Division II with 1.03 ERA... broke school record for strikeouts in a season with 111... threw 45 consecutive scoreless innings from March 24 to May 10.

111/11 : K/BB

Well he's a lefty too, so that's a bonus

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

If their strategy is bad at finding cheap, young pitching they will not be competitive long-term with a $120M payroll.

If they're good at finding pitching, then find more of it. Pitchers are currency for trades that every team will always want. They might not need a future second baseman, but everyone can find room for another pitcher.

Who says it is bad????   They did ok,  not great in the 2017-2019 drafts,  not great.  2020 draft is a throw away draft.  They traded away most of their pitchers from the 2021 draft.  The 2022 and the 2023 draft appears to be very successful at finding some quality pitchers.  Several already in AA,  most of the roster in high A and A ball are comprised from these 2 classes.   Most likely they have 2 quality long term pitchers out of these 2 classes.  In reality that is all you need.  We don't need major reinforcements until 2026.  

I think Carpenter will get over 150K and dip into the bonus pool.  Only 19, would be heading to East Carolina next year.  Common strategy to do it in the 11th round so that if don't lose bonus pool $ if they don't sign. 

4 pitchers so far......

51 minutes ago, Dman said:

If this is the right Michael Carpenter he had some pretty amazing stats in 2024. Granted this is JC ball, but the numbers are impressive.

2024 - Named Region 4 Player of the Year and First Team All-Region 4... led NJCAA Division II with 1.03 ERA... broke school record for strikeouts in a season with 111... threw 45 consecutive scoreless innings from March 24 to May 10.

It sure appears to be him. Age, school, height and weight all match up. Very strange on the school site, however, that they mention some of his 2024 numbers, and show some game breakdowns, but don't seem to have a nice single like total of his 2024 numbers. Weird.

But he doesn't turn 20 for a couple more days, is a lefty, and can be a draft and follow since he's a JC kid. But I'm betting the Twins took him with full intention to sign.

I like the fact that the Twins drafted mainly college players. If I were a GM, I'd stay away from almost every HS player as their true ability cannot really be measured if they play in weak leagues. Of course scouts know what to look for and, especially in the later rounds, you're hoping to hit lightening. However, I'd stick with college kids who have developed a bit further than HS kids (IMHO).

56 minutes ago, Hawkeye Bean Counter said:

Who says it is bad????   They did ok,  not great in the 2017-2019 drafts,  not great.  2020 draft is a throw away draft.  They traded away most of their pitchers from the 2021 draft.  The 2022 and the 2023 draft appears to be very successful at finding some quality pitchers.  Several already in AA,  most of the roster in high A and A ball are comprised from these 2 classes.   Most likely they have 2 quality long term pitchers out of these 2 classes.  In reality that is all you need.  We don't need major reinforcements until 2026.  

You have to realize that maybe 10% of all players drafted will spend any kind of significant time in the major leagues. I have no problems with who they draft in the later rounds. You never know who will develop into that major league contributor.