Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall Jump in Baseball America's June Rankings; Walker Jenkins Drops

None of this really matters, but EmRod isn't a great prospect.  Beside Jenkins and Keaschall, both of whom I had well ahead of EmRod last year, I'd put at least three pitchers, too, before him.  High OBP is not a predictor of success, and that's EmRod's best attribute.

Rodriguez is a guy with a chance, but I don't think it's all that big of a chance to be a better than average player.  Maybe 5%.

Jenkins should be moved down simply for individual/team stupidity.  I really don't understand how players are allowed to sprain their ankles.

5 hours ago, twinstalker said:

None of this really matters, but EmRod isn't a great prospect.  Beside Jenkins and Keaschall, both of whom I had well ahead of EmRod last year, I'd put at least three pitchers, too, before him.  High OBP is not a predictor of success, and that's EmRod's best attribute.

Rodriguez is a guy with a chance, but I don't think it's all that big of a chance to be a better than average player.  Maybe 5%.

Jenkins should be moved down simply for individual/team stupidity.  I really don't understand how players are allowed to sprain their ankles.

SMH!!!! Im not sure if the first line, and the last line are actual real thoughts, especially the last one though. Had no idea that spraining an ankle was a willful act. Interesting.

8 hours ago, Eris said:

“Finally, Keaschall was moved to the 60-day IL and is expected to be out for the foreseeable future although should return this season.”

The original projected return date was end of June. Has there been any info communicated that it will be much longer than that. The injury occurred at the end of April, so a 60 day IL can align with the original return estimate. 
 

 

I haven't heard anything about his timeline, despite looking around at many sites. At this time he's still projected to be available at the end of June. Factor in a rehab stint for a week or two in St. Paul, and we're looking at him possibly rejoining the team not long after the All Star Break. 

Get Rodriguez up sooner rather than later.

46 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Get Rodriguez up sooner rather than later.

 

why ?  another 35% + K King ..we already have enough of those.. If he K's at that rate in AAA what do you think he'd do up in the bigs?? it's a shame we cant develop real hitters

2 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

Get Rodriguez up sooner rather than later.

 

He's on the injured list since Monday...  His skills are nice, but his inability to stay healthy is a real concern.

13 hours ago, Ghost of Kirby Puckett said:

SMH!!!! Im not sure if the first line, and the last line are actual real thoughts, especially the last one though. Had no idea that spraining an ankle was a willful act. Interesting.

You'd be surprised.  I played relatively (vs  normal person) high level football and basketball.  I sprained my ankles a lot, and people treated it as you say, bummer, accident.  And then I got tired of constantly being out, so I started doing something about it to prevent it, even though my ankles were now a mess. 

I'm talking high school and small college, and I guess I never had the expectation back then that the team should be addressing this proactively with everyone, even me.  It's really easy to prevent.  I had so many "events" occur after I started my prevention, and none of the turns were bad because I protected.  Then I got cocky in grad school playing IM hoops, didn't protect, bad sprain.  Rest of life protected, never hurt again in hoops, but sprained twice running unprotected (hit a hole, hit an ice chunk).  There are levels of protection, and there are ways to concentrate on protecting against high and low sprains.  I was very interested in learning all this, of course.

It shocks me to this day when an athlete sprains his ankle.  I know my story is very anecdotal, but I think I was an extreme case to begin with, and that matters here.

As for EmRod, for one, I spend an inordinate amount of time studying prospects and their eventualities.  My background and graduate work is in stats, but  I still need to get a life.  EmRod has a chance, as I said.  He's a good prospect compared to the Twins list of prospects, but there are a half dozen or so in the organization now I expect to have better careers, on average.  This is all on average.  And that may be shortchanging him if he figures things out 6-7 years down the road and has a fine career thereafter.

I know I keep repeating it, but minor league K rate is pretty much the one statistic you need to look at, albeit it adjusting for a few other factors, including age vs level, power hitting (binary, think Wallner) and a few other things.  The new statcast data are going to refine this, but K rate is the biggie of the common-now stats.  So I predicted struggles for Julien and success with a lot of strikeouts for Wallner.  Wallner's not done proving it, but Julien is.  He'll have to be a 2nd phase guy if he's anything, and it's going to take a massive change, if it's possible.

Also, a low walk rate in the minors isn't a good thing unless the hit tool is extraordinary (see Jacob Wilson), but a high walk rate (non-predictive) is almost always about passivity.  It's incredibly easy to draw a walk in the minors compared to the majors, and that means walk rate can be more misleading than helpful.  MLB pitchers have a field day with a passive hitter.  Mind you, just like with Julien, pitchers don't figure a player out immediately, but when they do, the book is everywhere.  I'd have to imagine the pitching learning curve is shorter now based on better minors data.

I would expect EmRod to enter the majors on a minor league hot streak, and both that and the natural pitcher learning curve could contribute to immediate success, just like with Julien.  Someone with power like EmRod (though not a power hitter, binary) could do very well before suddenly "what happened?"

Another example is Keaschall.  Last year I was giving EmRod more a benefit of the doubt than I am now, but I think my top five in order were Jenkins, Lee (because guaranteed MLBer) Keaschall, Zebby, and EmRod (mostly to avoid having to explain why he wasn't in my top five).  But Keaschall had everything we look for in a prospect except maybe high high upside.  And he showed it when called up, though he'll never be that good, obviously.  He's got some power, doesn't K, speed, was about as young vs MiLB level as he could be given his draft status plus had those intangibles that turn into tangibles: SBs, extra bases, and such.  As far as I know, I was the only one ranking Keaschall higher than EmRod, and to me it wasn't even close.  Lee, btw, I criticized often, but his low K rate made me believe he'll be a major leaguer as long as he's young and healthy.  Keaschall wasn't a sure-fire MLBer like Lee but was really close.  I think I had Zebby ahead of Keaschall, if I did, because of impact if he reached his ceiling.

I also like Payton Eeles a lot, but there are so many unknowns and a few key negatives that I think won't be a real problem with him, but his profile is so unique, I'm not betting the house on him.  His upside is a fine 2B with the Keaschall intangibles...I'm not even sure he can be a utility player, though his arm strength might not be the problem I fear, and he will be just that.

For the record on 6/6/25:

1. Jenkins (clear 1 due to a lot...he's quite good if healthy)

1b. Keaschall  (too good to start with a "2")

3a. Dasan Hill  (better than Soto but further away for now)

3b. Charlee Soto (can't seem to get info on injury, and that definitely puts him after Hill)

5.  Connor Prielipp (could be higher, but I think he's a reliever)

6.  EmRod (mostly due to age, speed, and fielding to go with his hitting stats vs K rate)

7.  Payton Eeles  (this is purely a "I know he'll play and be decent" spot)

8.  Andrew Morris (15 months younger than Zebby, last year Zebby started at high A, less mph)

<special place for CJ Culpepper, who likely needs TJS, but the Twins are Canterino-ing him>

9.  Gabriel Gonzalez (not sure there's much upside, but he'll hit, 14% K rate this year, 12% AA)

10, Danny De Andrade (I could put McCusker here or around 15)

After that's there's a bunch of guys like K. Culpepper, DeBarge, D. Pena, maybe Winokur, Olivar, maybe McCusker, et al. There's a whole lot of pitchers we don't quite know about that will fill up 11-25 at the end of the season. When we get to 30, we can start talking names like Raya, Schobel,  No, Schobel hitting well at third time through AA doesn't impress me.  Could be a thrown in to a deal, I suppose.  I'm probably too rough on both, but they're not top prospect in any way at this point.

Finally, Corey Lewis.  Need to figure out what's wrong.  Pretty sure he's much better than he's showing, not sure what's wrong.  At this point I'd put him around 15-20 based on his prior success.  Amick maybe sneaks in top 20 but is 20-25.  You can't be as old as your competition and strike out at a 25% rate and show zero HR power.  I won't say his decent stats are all BABIP driven, but there's a god chance that's what we're looking at.

23 hours ago, Road trip said:

He's on the injured list since Monday...  His skills are nice, but his inability to stay healthy is a real concern.

Understand that.  But he should be back in the lineup by early July and if his performance takes any kind of uptick get him up.  He gets on base better than Keaschall did on the other side of the river and Keaschall came up and we fell in love with him.  Let's get him up here and in the lineup and maybe create the kind of excitement that was created when Keaschall came up.  Keeping him down because of injury concerns makes no sense.  Would be like saying that when Keaschall comes back we need to keep him down until he proves he can stay healthy in the minors.

On 6/6/2025 at 6:48 PM, twinstalker said:

You'd be surprised.  I played relatively (vs  normal person) high level football and basketball.  I sprained my ankles a lot, and people treated it as you say, bummer, accident.  And then I got tired of constantly being out, so I started doing something about it to prevent it, even though my ankles were now a mess. 

I'm talking high school and small college, and I guess I never had the expectation back then that the team should be addressing this proactively with everyone, even me.  It's really easy to prevent.  I had so many "events" occur after I started my prevention, and none of the turns were bad because I protected.  Then I got cocky in grad school playing IM hoops, didn't protect, bad sprain.  Rest of life protected, never hurt again in hoops, but sprained twice running unprotected (hit a hole, hit an ice chunk).  There are levels of protection, and there are ways to concentrate on protecting against high and low sprains.  I was very interested in learning all this, of course.

It shocks me to this day when an athlete sprains his ankle.  I know my story is very anecdotal, but I think I was an extreme case to begin with, and that matters here.

As for EmRod, for one, I spend an inordinate amount of time studying prospects and their eventualities.  My background and graduate work is in stats, but  I still need to get a life.  EmRod has a chance, as I said.  He's a good prospect compared to the Twins list of prospects, but there are a half dozen or so in the organization now I expect to have better careers, on average.  This is all on average.  And that may be shortchanging him if he figures things out 6-7 years down the road and has a fine career thereafter.

I know I keep repeating it, but minor league K rate is pretty much the one statistic you need to look at, albeit it adjusting for a few other factors, including age vs level, power hitting (binary, think Wallner) and a few other things.  The new statcast data are going to refine this, but K rate is the biggie of the common-now stats.  So I predicted struggles for Julien and success with a lot of strikeouts for Wallner.  Wallner's not done proving it, but Julien is.  He'll have to be a 2nd phase guy if he's anything, and it's going to take a massive change, if it's possible.

Also, a low walk rate in the minors isn't a good thing unless the hit tool is extraordinary (see Jacob Wilson), but a high walk rate (non-predictive) is almost always about passivity.  It's incredibly easy to draw a walk in the minors compared to the majors, and that means walk rate can be more misleading than helpful.  MLB pitchers have a field day with a passive hitter.  Mind you, just like with Julien, pitchers don't figure a player out immediately, but when they do, the book is everywhere.  I'd have to imagine the pitching learning curve is shorter now based on better minors data.

I would expect EmRod to enter the majors on a minor league hot streak, and both that and the natural pitcher learning curve could contribute to immediate success, just like with Julien.  Someone with power like EmRod (though not a power hitter, binary) could do very well before suddenly "what happened?"

Another example is Keaschall.  Last year I was giving EmRod more a benefit of the doubt than I am now, but I think my top five in order were Jenkins, Lee (because guaranteed MLBer) Keaschall, Zebby, and EmRod (mostly to avoid having to explain why he wasn't in my top five).  But Keaschall had everything we look for in a prospect except maybe high high upside.  And he showed it when called up, though he'll never be that good, obviously.  He's got some power, doesn't K, speed, was about as young vs MiLB level as he could be given his draft status plus had those intangibles that turn into tangibles: SBs, extra bases, and such.  As far as I know, I was the only one ranking Keaschall higher than EmRod, and to me it wasn't even close.  Lee, btw, I criticized often, but his low K rate made me believe he'll be a major leaguer as long as he's young and healthy.  Keaschall wasn't a sure-fire MLBer like Lee but was really close.  I think I had Zebby ahead of Keaschall, if I did, because of impact if he reached his ceiling.

I also like Payton Eeles a lot, but there are so many unknowns and a few key negatives that I think won't be a real problem with him, but his profile is so unique, I'm not betting the house on him.  His upside is a fine 2B with the Keaschall intangibles...I'm not even sure he can be a utility player, though his arm strength might not be the problem I fear, and he will be just that.

For the record on 6/6/25:

1. Jenkins (clear 1 due to a lot...he's quite good if healthy)

1b. Keaschall  (too good to start with a "2")

3a. Dasan Hill  (better than Soto but further away for now)

3b. Charlee Soto (can't seem to get info on injury, and that definitely puts him after Hill)

5.  Connor Prielipp (could be higher, but I think he's a reliever)

6.  EmRod (mostly due to age, speed, and fielding to go with his hitting stats vs K rate)

7.  Payton Eeles  (this is purely a "I know he'll play and be decent" spot)

8.  Andrew Morris (15 months younger than Zebby, last year Zebby started at high A, less mph)

<special place for CJ Culpepper, who likely needs TJS, but the Twins are Canterino-ing him>

9.  Gabriel Gonzalez (not sure there's much upside, but he'll hit, 14% K rate this year, 12% AA)

10, Danny De Andrade (I could put McCusker here or around 15)

After that's there's a bunch of guys like K. Culpepper, DeBarge, D. Pena, maybe Winokur, Olivar, maybe McCusker, et al. There's a whole lot of pitchers we don't quite know about that will fill up 11-25 at the end of the season. When we get to 30, we can start talking names like Raya, Schobel,  No, Schobel hitting well at third time through AA doesn't impress me.  Could be a thrown in to a deal, I suppose.  I'm probably too rough on both, but they're not top prospect in any way at this point.

Finally, Corey Lewis.  Need to figure out what's wrong.  Pretty sure he's much better than he's showing, not sure what's wrong.  At this point I'd put him around 15-20 based on his prior success.  Amick maybe sneaks in top 20 but is 20-25.  You can't be as old as your competition and strike out at a 25% rate and show zero HR power.  I won't say his decent stats are all BABIP driven, but there's a god chance that's what we're looking at.

So I guess you have been watching a ton of minor league baseball, right? How many times would you say you have seen each pitcher and batter?