The BA Twins top ten prospect list is out.

[TRex]

Today is better than Christmas for me! Even more so since I found out I could get the premium content after signing in (I only had an account because I had purchased previous material from BA). If you have an account, try signing in!

 

There has been a lot of guessing what #'s 11-20 will look like, but I found this new feature (top 15 players under 25), which listed the following players after Jorge Polanco, suggestive:

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13. Max Kepler, of/1b (21) Low Class A

14. Fernando Romero, rhp (19) Rookie

15. Stephen Gonsalves, lhp (19) Rookie[TABLE=class: rightAlignTable, align: right]

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Fernando Romero is certainly a name we have heard before, but I don't think many have the fireballing Dominican right-hander as high as #12!

 

For a quick primer, this is what Thrylos had to say about him:

 

34. Fernando Romero, RHSP, DOB: 12/24/1994. 6'0", 215 lbs

 

Fernando Romero was signed to an Amateur Free Agent contract by the Twins on October of 2011 with a $260,000 bonus out of the Dominican Republic. After spending the 2012 season in the Dominican Summer League, he made the jump to the Gulf Coast League in 2013. He pitched in 12 games (6 GS) for 45 innings to a 1.60 ERA and had 47 strikeouts and only 13 bases on balls. His WHIP was 1.00 and K% a very impressive 26, while his K/BB was 3.62.

 

Romero is a big guy and an extreme ground ball pitcher. That compared to his striking out pretty much every fourth batter he faced, is very promising. His heavy fastball is in the low 90s but he is still very young and can pick velocity. He has a slider and changeup that are works in progress. A former Twins' comparable would be Carlos Silva at his best. Romero does have mid rotation potential, depending on development of his secondary pitches and staying healthy. He will likely begin 2014, his age 19 season, in Elizabethton where he will alternate between the rotation and pen until extended.

[cmathewson]

No, Kepler isn't a huge surprise, just noting that he's not on the list.

 

Berrios is definitely a top ten prospect, I was merely surprised that they had him at #5, right behind Stewart.

 

Then again, with the Rosario suspension, maybe that isn't such a surprise.

 

I'm guessing Kepler and Polanco are in the top 13, if they had one. The only other name missing is Pinto, whom BP had five or six.

[Brock Beauchamp]

In regards to Santana. I've thrown him under the bus in other threads (the Stephen Drew one specifically). This peaked my interest. He's been fairly young for each level and he wouldn't be the first guy we've seen take some major strides in his later seasons. He hasn't been a flop but he may well be a useful guy. If he is a true defensive whiz, maybe he's a top of the league defensive guy with an ok hit tool. His OBP has been about .330 the past two years compared to a career .318. Maybe as he matures he gets a little better eye and improves his stealing rate as well. I still don't see him as a top ten guy but I guess there must be a decent argument for it. Career minor league OPS is about 40 points higher than Florimon and he played the levels at a younger age for what that's worth.

 

I've also been pretty down on Santana but if his glove plays as advertised, he could easily supplant Florimon. I've probably been a bit unfair to the kid, as he's only going into his age 23 season in 2014.

 

I think we've all said if Florimon could just hit a little better he could suddenly become a valuable player. Maybe Santana is that guy. I'm a bit pessimistic on him but who knows.

 

Honestly, it wouldn't take much. Santana's 2013 in AA is virtually identical to Florimon's 2012 in AA... Except that Santana did it as a 22 year old, not a 25 year old.

 

I don't expect much from Santana but I expect nothing from Florimon. He's a bad MLB starter. Florimon should be AAAA injury filler in the minors, not a MLB shortstop. Santana probably won't end up being more than a futility bat but still, that's better than Pedro Florimon. His bat simply doesn't carry in today's game. I don't care how well he fields (and he's still too sloppy to be considered an all-glove, no bat starter).

 

As for Florimon improving, I created a handy meme image to explain my thoughts on the subject.

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

I'm guessing Kepler and Polanco are in the top 13, if they had one. The only other name missing is Pinto, whom BP had five or six.

 

I assumed Pinto was missing because of his MLB experience. There's no way he drops off the list after his September call-up unless they have a 50 PA cutoff for prospects.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Is the chat available to everyone or just BA subscribers?

 

Subscribers only.

[Linus]

Wasn't Santana voted "Best Prospect" in the Eastern League last year by the managers? I get the relatively unimpressive performance from a sabermetrics POV but he must have something that catches the eye of experienced baseball people.

[Thrylos]

Wasn't Santana voted "Best Prospect" in the Eastern League last year by the managers?

 

No

 

Caleb Joseph (Baysox) was the 2013 Eastern League Player of the Year

Allan Dykstra (B-Mets) was the 2013 Eastern League MVP

Alex Dickerson (Curve) was the 2013 Eastern League Rookie of the Year

 

Santana (and Pinto) made the Eastern League All Star team, maybe that's what you are thinking of...

 

I get the relatively unimpressive performance from a sabermetrics POV but he must have something that catches the eye of experienced baseball people.

 

It is not only "sabermetrics". It is even old school metrics: .719 OPS, 2 HR, 66 R (for a lead off guy), 45 RBI, 24 BB, 97 K, 30% CS rate and 32 errors do not a superstar make (I did not even talk about "sabermetrics" like WAR, wRC+, wOBA etc). At any league, at any age. And you have to be a superstar to crack the Twins' top 10. Definitely better players were left out. Plus his glove is really inconsistent. He is rangy but makes silly mistakes on easy plays. And he fails the eye test. I watched him play 3 times last season and was not exactly impressed. He has great speed. He can make ground ball contact and try to run them for hits, with occasional line drives. That's pretty much his game.

[Linus]

No

 

Caleb Joseph (Baysox) was the 2013 Eastern League Player of the Year

Allan Dykstra (B-Mets) was the 2013 Eastern League MVP

Alex Dickerson (Curve) was the 2013 Eastern League Rookie of the Year

 

Santana (and Pinto) made the Eastern League All Star team, maybe that's what you are thinking of...

 

 

 

It is not only "sabermetrics". It is even old school metrics: .719 OPS, 2 HR, 66 R (for a lead off guy), 45 RBI, 24 BB, 97 K, 30% CS rate and 32 errors do not a superstar make (I did not even talk about "sabermetrics" like WAR, wRC+, wOBA etc). At any league, at any age. And you have to be a superstar to crack the Twins' top 10. Definitely better players were left out. Plus his glove is really inconsistent. He is rangy but makes silly mistakes on easy plays. And he fails the eye test. I watched him play 3 times last season and was not exactly impressed. He has great speed. He can make ground ball contact and try to run them for hits, with occasional line drives. That's pretty much his game.

 

Yep, now that I think of it, best prospect would be quite an impressive award. Sounds like this coming year will be very important for him. In other words step it up or step aside.

[maxisagod]

One of the things BA has always been high on is age and ceiling. Pinto is a little older and Mlb regular ceiling is not as flashly as potential Allstar. Santana has always been young for his league and the power potential, avg, and range says his ceiling might be higher, though Pinto is a lot more likely to reach his.

[ericchri]

Wasn't Santana voted "Best Prospect" in the Eastern League last year by the managers? I get the relatively unimpressive performance from a sabermetrics POV but he must have something that catches the eye of experienced baseball people.

 

This seems pretty familiar to me, too. Was it maybe best defensive player or something to that effect?

[cmathewson]

This seems pretty familiar to me, too. Was it maybe best defensive player or something to that effect?

 

Best defensive infielder. Yeah he had 30 errors. he also has otherworldly range. Much better than Florimon. If he cleans up his errors, he could easily outperform Florimon in the field.

[Jim H]

Best defensive infielder. Yeah he had 30 errors. he also has otherworldly range. Much better than Florimon. If he cleans up his errors, he could easily outperform Florimon in the field.

 

Do you really think that this is true about his range? If his range is actually that much better than Forimon's he would be considered a super SS prospect close to some of the best prospects. Nobody considers him that. Florimon has very good range and a strong arm. Those aren't his problem. Consistency and the bat are his problems.

[cmathewson]

Do you really think that this is true about his range? If his range is actually that much better than Forimon's he would be considered a super SS prospect close to some of the best prospects. Nobody considers him that. Florimon has very good range and a strong arm. Those aren't his problem. Consistency and the bat are his problems.

 

I'm mostly going on reports from Twins scouts. But, yes, he is said to have better range than Florimon. Similar instincts and jumps, more speed. Stronger arm.

[Jim H]

I'm mostly going on reports from Twins scouts. But, yes, he is said to have better range than Florimon. Similar instincts and jumps, more speed. Stronger arm.

 

Florimon is not yet and may never be a great shortstop, but his tools are better than anybody who played shortstop for the Twins all the way back to Gagne. I hadn't heard of any reports that actually say Santana has better tools than Florimon. Some who have seen him play on this site are impressed with Santana's tools but not that impressed. So I think I will reserve judgment. Especially since your 2nd post didn't mention otherworldly.

[shs_59]

In a lot of lists Pinto (and Herrmann and Hicks and Arcia) has graduated and he is not regarded a prospect any more because of those 83 MLB PAs and because he will likely is the Twins starting C. IMO, if you played in the majors, you are done as a prospect.

 

I do like the MLB.com list better and not willing to jump on the Thorpe (or Sulbaran or Jorge) bandwagons quite yet. Maybe after this season. Walker needs to get on base more. A college kid with a .310 and .319 OBP in the last 2 seasons is not a top 10 prospect. Add 115 K in 508 ABs to that low OBP and you might be getting the picture. If he increases his walk rate and gets his OBP closer to .350, then he might be on the radar. At this point he is not much better prospect than someone like DJ Hicks (who is better with the bat, but not with his glove)

 

 

Thrylos, Maybe you like the Twins mlb.com list better than BA's Twins specific list, and thats fine. But you can't possibly think their accumiltive lists are better than BA's or even John Sickles' or BP's.

 

Look no further than the Texas Rangers (mlb.com) Mayo list. Its atrocious!

Its soo so bad.

 

Jorge Alfaro ranks #1 the catcher while Rougned Odor the clear cutt #1 ranks #4.

 

Luke Jackson, who if you talk to ANY ranger fan, is in the top 5 or 6 amongst Ranger spects........ HE RANKS 10th !?!?! ....and 1 spot behind Cody Buckel who didn't just fall off of the planet earth he fell out of the entire universe last year.

 

and Jackson is pretty clearly one of their top 2 pitching prospects.

 

Even in the back half OF Nick WIlliams who ranks 17th is clearly better than about 5 or 6 guys ahead of him.

 

 

I respect Jonathan Maya for all the work he does, but pretty clearly they are just lazy in getting the lists correct.

I know its not for a lack of updates, because Michael Choice who the Rangers just aquired from Oak. ranked #4

And the Twins' Sean Gilmartin ranked back half who they just got for Doumit from the Bravos.

 

It really is pathetic and they could pay me $10 a day to do a much better job; As far as proper lists go among all 30 teams. And i'm serious.

 

BTW, I respect you're opinion thrylos a ton, on Twins daily. As i think ur one of the most knowledgable twins fans. Just wanted to be clear.

[clutterheart]

Wasn't Santana voted "Best Prospect" in the Eastern League last year by the managers? I get the relatively unimpressive performance from a sabermetrics POV but he must have something that catches the eye of experienced baseball people.

 

Santana was named the best Defensive Shortstop (could be based on tools, I dunno) in the eastern league by opposing managers.

 

This is one reason to have him so high. SS is premium position and if a guy can hit just a little and play good D he has value. Furthermore he is a threat on the base paths with his speed. He has + Speed, + Arm, + Range and his bat is not a huge -. If he could take walks he would be a top 100 prospect.

[Thrylos]

Thrylos, Maybe you like the Twins mlb.com list better than BA's Twins specific list, and thats fine. But you can't possibly think their accumiltive lists are better than BA's or even John Sickles' or BP's.

 

Look no further than the Texas Rangers (mlb.com) Mayo list. Its atrocious!

Its soo so bad.

 

That's the thing: I have no idea about the Rangers' prospects and I really don't care that much. I do know the Twins' prospects, I have seen them play and I am relaying my gut feelings versus those of the national publications...

[gil4]

If (like all prospects) - he can continue to cut his K rate (30% in 2012 to 20% in 2013) and improve his BB rate - he might have a chance to move up on their ranking list.

 

For the record - I see Walker improving again - He is my BREAKOUT player of the year again for 2014...

 

Those are a couple of big ifs. Usually a major step forward like he had is at least partly due to random variations. A significant reduction in K% is unlikely, and a slight regression is a better bet (especially if he moves up in competition.)

[johnnydakota]

Best defensive infielder. Yeah he had 30 errors. he also has otherworldly range. Much better than Florimon. If he cleans up his errors, he could easily outperform Florimon in the field.

 

Didnt Florimon have 40+ errors each of his last 2 seasons in the minors?